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2020 Election Model: Trump wins 24 of 25 scenarios

01 Nov

Richard Charnin Nov.1, 2020

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2020 Election Model: Trump wins 24 of 25 scenarios

Best case: Trump has 53% Ind; 95% Rep; 10% Dem. He wins 51.0-47.7% ; 356 EV; 4.99 million vote margin
Most Likely Base Case: Trump has 51% Ind; 93% Rep; 10% Dem. He wins 49.9-48.8% ; 351 EV; 1.63m
Worst case: Trump has 49% Ind; 91% Rep; 10% Dem. He loses by 49.9-48.8%; 247 EV; -1.73m

Gallup State Party-ID aggregate

Base CaseTurnoutParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem66,09244.1%89.0%10.0%1.0%
Rep60,54540.4%6.0%93.0%1.0%
Ind23,36215.6%46.0%51.0%3.0%
Total150,000100.0%48.8%49.9%1.3%
Votes (mil)150,00073,20274,8311,967
Margin/EV1,630187351
Sensitivity AnalysisTrump has 10% of Democrats
Trump % Rep
% Ind91%92%93%94%95%
Trump
53%49.4%49.8%50.2%50.6%51.0%
52%49.2%49.6%50.0%50.4%50.9%
51%49.1%49.5%49.9%50.3%50.7%
50%48.9%49.3%49.7%50.1%50.5%
49%48.8%49.2%49.6%50.0%50.4%
Biden
53%49.3%48.9%48.5%48.1%47.7%
52%49.5%49.0%48.6%48.2%47.8%
51%49.6%49.2%48.8%48.4%48.0%
50%49.8%49.4%49.0%48.6%48.1%
49%49.9%49.5%49.1%48.7%48.3%
Margin (000)
53%1421,3532,5643,7754,986
52%-3258862,0973,3084,519
51%-7924191,6302,8404,051
50%-1,260-491,1622,3733,584
49%-1,727-5166951,9063,117
Electoral Vote
53%321351356356356
52%321351351356356
51%321321351356356
50%291321325356356
49%247291325351356

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=2098840060

 
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Posted by on November 1, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

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