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On Nov.4, Trump was leading in four of six contested states with 68 electoral votes. If he wins the four he would have a 285-253 EV win

04 Nov

Richard Charnin

Nov.4, 2020

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Given the following state votes still to be counted, I calculated the estimated percentage of outstanding votes required for Trump to win the state.

11/611amEVVotesCountedOutTrumpBidenmarginTrumpBidento winMargin chgto win
NC155,73194%3442,7322,6557750.1%48.7%38.80%01335,731
NV61,42286%199602621-1948.1%49.8%54.77%-81091,422
PA206,72898%1353,2923,301-949.4%49.5%53.34%-35726,728
WI103,27299%331,6091,630-2148.9%49.6%82.09%0273,272
GA164,94899%492,4492,450-149.49%49.51%51.01%-3254,948
MI165,29199%532,6002,638-3848.9%49.6%85.91%0455,291
AZ113,42090%3421,5171,561-4448.6%50.0%56.43%21933,420
Total9430,81295.0%1,15514,80114,856-5549.1%49.5%52.38%-960530,812
11/511pmEVVotesCountedOutTrumpBidenmarginTrumpBidento win
NC155,73194%3442,7322,6557750.1%48.7%38.80%
NV61,42584%228593604-1148.5%50.1%52.41%
PA207,26490%7263,2823,2562649.6%49.2%48.21%
WI103,27299%331,6091,630-2148.9%49.6%82.09%
GA164,94199%492,4472,445249.52%49.48%47.98%
MI165,29199%532,6002,638-3848.9%49.6%85.91%
AZ113,34490%3341,4821,528-4648.5%50.1%56.88%
Total9431,26993.6%1,76814,74514,756-1149.1%49.5%50.31%

Update 4pm Nov.4 : If Trump wins the following 5 states, he would have 285 EV. Trump trails Biden by just 0.6% in NV. He will win NV if he gets 51% of the remaining 25% uncounted. He will win AZ if he captures 59% of the remaining 16%. Trump MUST win PA and GA to win the election.

11/4 4pmEVVotesCountedTrumpBidenMargin (000)Trump to match
NC155,73194%50.1%48.7%80.238.8%
NV61,55775%48.6%49.2%-9.351.0%
PA206,91884%52.7%45.2%518.832.7%
GA164,94995%50.2%48.6%79.234.2%
AZ113,24884%47.6%51.0%-110.459.0%
Total68

Initial analysis

EVCountedTrumpBidenTrump to match
NC1594%50.1%48.7%38.8%
NV667%48.6%49.2%50.7%
PA2064%55.7%43.1%38.6%
WI1095%48.9%49.6%56.1%
GA1694%50.5%48.3%32.7%
MI1691%49.5%49.0%47.5%
Total83

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=737914131

 
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Posted by on November 4, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

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