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2020 Election Model: A Trump Landslide

07 Nov

Richard Charnin Nov. 18, 2020

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2020 Election Model update: Trump wins in a landslide.

I forecast the electoral vote exactly in each of the last three elections. Will I do it again in 2020? Wait for the Kraken.

Trump lawyer Sydney Powell said that Trump had at least 80 million votes, exactly matching the True Vote Model. The TVM indicates that Trump won by 80.6-71.2 million votes (52.3-46.2%) and had 368 Electoral Votes. The election is the most fraudulent in history. The massive voting irregularities are all in one direction- against Trump.

Model Assumptions:

1) Final Gallup pre-election voter affiliation survey Party-ID: 31D, 31R, 38I.

2) Equal voter turnout rates. This is conservative. Republicans usually turn out at a higher rate than Democrats.

3) Trump wins 10% of Dems, 95% of Repubs and 52% of Independents.

Result: Trump wins by 9.3 million votes (52.3-46.2%) and has 368 Electoral Votes

Note the following 2016 National Exit Poll recorded shares understated Trump’s True Vote shares. The 2016 election was fraudulent. Clinton’s popular vote was inflated. She did not win the True popular vote.

Rationale: Model forecast assumptions

Trump increased his 2016 shares of

1) Dems from 8% to 10% due to gains in Black and Hispanic voters

2) Repubs from 89% to 95% due to an energized base

3) Independents from his 2016 recorded 46-42% margin to 52-45% due to the decline in third party votes from 6% to 2%.

TVMTurnoutParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem47,74031.0%90.0%10.0%0.0%
Rep47,74031.0%4.0%95.0%1.0%
Ind58,52038.0%45.0%52.0%3.0%
National Model100.0%46.2%52.3%1.5%
Votes (000)154,00071,21080,5572,233
Margin9,348170 EV368 EV
State Model100.0%46.6%52.6%0.9%
Votes154,00071,70080,9281,372
Margin9,227170 EV368 EV
Recordedas of 11/1851.0%47.3%1.7%
Votes154,00079,20173,4381,361
Margin/EV-5,763290232

2020 Election Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=297739797

 
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Posted by on November 7, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

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