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2020 True Vote Model: Returning 2016 voters

08 Nov

2020 True Vote Model: Returning 2016 voters

Richard Charnin Nov.8, 2020

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Compare the 2020 TVM to the 2020 National Exit Poll (recorded vote). Biden is winning the recorded vote by 4.4 million ( 50.9-47.9%)

Returning 2016 voters: Assume 98% turnout of Clinton and Trump voters in 2020. Total of 150 million votes of which 22 million are new voters. No change to 2020 NEP vote shares. Biden wins by 3.8 million (50.8-46.3%)

True Vote Model: 2020 NEP indicates respondents voted  for Trump  in 2016 by 42-40% (2.5 million margin). No change to 2020 NEP vote shares. Trump wins by 370,000 votes (49.5-49.2%)

Sensitivity Analysis: If Trump won 8% of returning Clinton voters and 95% of returning Trump voters, he wins by 4.6 million votes (50.9-47.8%)

View the calculations: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=0

National Exit Poll Demographics : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=99368505

 
4 Comments

Posted by on November 8, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

4 responses to “2020 True Vote Model: Returning 2016 voters

  1. Zen And Zenners

    November 10, 2020 at 12:11 am

    I’m curious. If Bernie Sanders were running against Trump, what would have happened?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      November 14, 2020 at 11:35 pm

      Trump would have won, just as he did in 2016 and 2020.

       
  2. Andy

    November 11, 2020 at 4:45 pm

    Mr. Charnin,

    Someone bought the result data from PA & WI. If you want to go over the numbers, then here are the links- .https://1fichier.com/?n7k9z6bdhlf3qb9arezz, https://thedonald.win/p/11Q8SklwxN/torrents-for-pa-and-wi-election-/

     
    • Richard Charnin

      November 14, 2020 at 11:34 pm

      I would gladly look at the data, but will not subscribe to the site. Send me a summary of the data.

       

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