Richard Charnin – Dec. 5, 2020
We are constantly fed propaganda by the media and politicians that Clinton won the popular vote by 2.8 million. But the NEP How Voted 2016 demographic indicates that 43% voted for Trump and 40% for Clinton. Trump had a much bigger margin in 2020 than he did in 2016. Election fraud in 2020 is massive. Biden won the bogus reported vote by 80.7-74.6 million (51.0-47.1%). But Trump won the election in a landslide. This should be obvious to anyone who looks at the overwhelming evidence of fraud. The 2020 National Exit Poll (NEP) forced a match to the fraudulent reported vote. The focus is on two demographics: returning 2016 voters and party affiliation.
In the 2016-1 analysis, the 2016 reported vote (Clinton by 48.2-46.1%) is assumed as the basis for voter turnout in 2020. Trump wins by 6.1 million votes (50.6-48.4%). In 2016-2, returning voters are based on the 2020 NEP (Trump by 43-40%). Trump wins by 12.0 million votes (53.2-44.8%). In both cases, equal turnout rates of Trump and Clinton voters is assumed. This is conservative. Historically, Republicans turn out at higher rates than Democrats.
| 2020 NEP | Mix | Biden | Trump | Other |
| Clinton | 40% | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| Trump | 43% | 7% | 92% | 1% |
| Other | 5% | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| DNV (new) | 12% | 58% | 39% | 3% |
| Calculated | 100.0% | 51.0% | 47.1% | 1.9% |
| Vote (mil) | 158.38 | 82.08 | 75.13 | 1.17 |
| Margin | 6.95 | |||
| Recorded | 100.0% | 51.3% | 46.9% | 1.8% |
| Vote | 158.38 | 81.27 | 74.22 | 2.90 |
| 2016-1 | Mix | Biden | Trump | Other |
| Clinton | 44.4% | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| Trump | 42.5% | 2% | 96% | 2% |
| Other | 5.2% | 37% | 55% | 8% |
| DNV (new) | 7.9% | 48% | 52% | 0% |
| Calculated | 100.0% | 46.5% | 50.9% | 2.6% |
| Vote (mil) | 142.0 | 66.1 | 72.2 | 3.7 |
| Margin | 6.1 |
| 2016-2 | Mix | Biden | Trump | Other |
| Clinton | 38.8% | 90% | 8% | 2% |
| Trump | 41.4% | 2% | 96% | 2% |
| Other | 4.2% | 37% | 55% | 8% |
| DNV (new) | 15.6% | 48% | 52% | 0% |
| Calculated | 100.0% | 44.8% | 53.2% | 1.9% |
| Vote (mil) | 142.0 | 63.6 | 75.6 | 2.8 |
| Margin | 12.0 |
| 2020 NEP | ||||
| Voted 2016 | Clinton | Trump | Other | DNV |
| National | 40% | 43% | 5% | 12% |
| FL | 38% | 44% | 5% | 13% |
| PA | 41% | 44% | 4% | 11% |
| OH | 36% | 46% | 5% | 13% |
| GA | 38% | 40% | 5% | 17% |
| MN | 39% | 41% | 8% | 12% |
| WI | 39% | 42% | 7% | 12% |
| MI | 40% | 42% | 4% | 14% |
| AVG | 38.7% | 42.7% | 5.4% | 13.1% |
In the Sensitivity analysis of 25 scenarios: Trump has 92-96% share of returning Trump voters and 6-10% of Clinton voters. His vote margins range from 5.1 (worst case) to 14.2 million (best case).
| Trump % | |||||
| Other 55% | |||||
| DNV 52% | %Clinton | ||||
| 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | |
| % Trump | Trump | ||||
| 96% | 52.5% | 52.9% | 53.2% | 53.6% | 54.0% |
| 95% | 52.1% | 52.4% | 52.8% | 53.2% | 53.6% |
| 94% | 51.6% | 52.0% | 52.4% | 52.8% | 53.2% |
| 93% | 51.2% | 51.6% | 52.0% | 52.4% | 52.8% |
| 92% | 50.8% | 51.2% | 51.6% | 52.0% | 52.4% |
| Biden | |||||
| 96% | 45.6% | 45.2% | 44.8% | 44.4% | 44.0% |
| 95% | 46.0% | 45.6% | 45.2% | 44.8% | 44.5% |
| 94% | 46.4% | 46.0% | 45.6% | 45.3% | 44.9% |
| 93% | 46.8% | 46.4% | 46.1% | 45.7% | 45.3% |
| 92% | 47.2% | 46.9% | 46.5% | 46.1% | 45.7% |
| Margin | |||||
| 96% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.0% |
| 95% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% |
| 94% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% |
| 93% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% |
| 92% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% |
| Margin | |||||
| 96% | 9.8 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 14.2 |
| 95% | 8.6 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 13.0 |
| 94% | 7.4 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 11.8 |
| 93% | 6.2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 10.6 |
| 92% | 5.1 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 9.5 |
In the Party-ID demographic, Democrats comprised 37% and Republicans 36%. Biden won 94% of Democrats and 6% of Republicans, Trump won 94% of Republicans and just 5% of Democrats. But Biden led Independents by 54-41%, giving him a 7.5 million vote margin (51.5-46.8%). In the adjusted calculation, I use the latest Gallup voter affiliation weights (31D-31R-28I) and estimate that Trump had 52% of Independents and won by 6.8 million votes (50.6-47.1%).
View the spreadsheet calculations. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=0
The National Exit Poll: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results
This article from Paul Craig Roberts, an eminent historian, spells it all out.
Richard Charnin's Blog 