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2020 National Exit Poll: How did you vote in 2016, Party-ID, Sensitivity analysis of alternate vote share assumptions

05 Dec

Richard Charnin – Dec. 5, 2020

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We are constantly fed propaganda by the media and politicians that Clinton won the popular vote by 2.8 million. But the NEP How Voted 2016 demographic indicates that 43% voted for Trump and 40% for Clinton. Trump had a much bigger margin in 2020 than he did in 2016. Election fraud in 2020 is massive. Biden won the bogus reported vote by 80.7-74.6 million (51.0-47.1%). But Trump won the election in a landslide. This should be obvious to anyone who looks at the overwhelming evidence of fraud. The 2020 National Exit Poll (NEP) forced a match to the fraudulent reported vote. The focus is on two demographics: returning 2016 voters and party affiliation.

In the 2016-1 analysis, the 2016 reported vote (Clinton by 48.2-46.1%) is assumed as the basis for voter turnout in 2020. Trump wins by 6.1 million votes (50.6-48.4%). In 2016-2, returning voters are based on the 2020 NEP (Trump by 43-40%). Trump wins by 12.0 million votes (53.2-44.8%). In both cases, equal turnout rates of Trump and Clinton voters is assumed. This is conservative. Historically, Republicans turn out at higher rates than Democrats.

2020 NEP MixBidenTrumpOther
Clinton40%95%4%1%
Trump43%7%92%1%
Other5%60%25%15%
DNV (new)12%58%39%3%
Calculated100.0%51.0%47.1%1.9%
Vote (mil)158.3882.0875.131.17
Margin6.95
Recorded100.0%51.3%46.9%1.8%
Vote 158.3881.2774.222.90
2016-1 MixBidenTrumpOther
Clinton44.4%90%7%3%
Trump42.5%2%96%2%
Other5.2%37%55%8%
DNV (new)7.9%48%52%0%
Calculated100.0%46.5%50.9%2.6%
Vote (mil)142.066.172.23.7
Margin6.1
2016-2MixBidenTrumpOther
Clinton38.8%90%8%2%
Trump41.4%2%96%2%
Other4.2%37%55%8%
DNV (new)15.6%48%52%0%
Calculated100.0%44.8%53.2%1.9%
Vote (mil)142.063.675.62.8
Margin12.0

2020 NEP
Voted 2016ClintonTrumpOtherDNV
National40%43%5%12%
FL38%44%5%13%
PA41%44%4%11%
OH36%46%5%13%
GA38%40%5%17%
MN39%41%8%12%
WI39%42%7%12%
MI40%42%4%14%
AVG38.7%42.7%5.4%13.1%

In the Sensitivity analysis of 25 scenarios: Trump has 92-96% share of returning Trump voters and 6-10% of Clinton voters. His vote margins range from 5.1 (worst case) to 14.2 million (best case).

Trump %
Other 55%
DNV 52%%Clinton
6%7%8%9%10%
% TrumpTrump
96%52.5%52.9%53.2%53.6%54.0%
95%52.1%52.4%52.8%53.2%53.6%
94%51.6%52.0%52.4%52.8%53.2%
93%51.2%51.6%52.0%52.4%52.8%
92%50.8%51.2%51.6%52.0%52.4%
Biden
96%45.6%45.2%44.8%44.4%44.0%
95%46.0%45.6%45.2%44.8%44.5%
94%46.4%46.0%45.6%45.3%44.9%
93%46.8%46.4%46.1%45.7%45.3%
92%47.2%46.9%46.5%46.1%45.7%
Margin
96%6.9%7.6%8.4%9.2%10.0%
95%6.0%6.8%7.6%8.4%9.1%
94%5.2%6.0%6.8%7.5%8.3%
93%4.4%5.2%5.9%6.7%7.5%
92%3.6%4.3%5.1%5.9%6.7%
Margin
96%9.810.912.013.114.2
95%8.69.710.811.913.0
94%7.48.59.610.711.8
93%6.27.38.49.510.6
92%5.16.27.38.49.5

In the Party-ID demographic, Democrats comprised 37% and Republicans 36%. Biden won 94% of Democrats and 6% of Republicans, Trump won 94% of Republicans and just 5% of Democrats. But Biden led Independents by 54-41%, giving him a 7.5 million vote margin (51.5-46.8%). In the adjusted calculation, I use the latest Gallup voter affiliation weights (31D-31R-28I) and estimate that Trump had 52% of Independents and won by 6.8 million votes (50.6-47.1%).

View the spreadsheet calculations. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=0

The National Exit Poll: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

This article from Paul Craig Roberts, an eminent historian, spells it all out.

 
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Posted by on December 5, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

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