Confirming the infinitesimally small probability of Biden winning 4 battleground states at 3am

22 Dec

Richard Charnin – Dec. 22, 2020


The probability that Biden would win PA, WI, GA, MI independently, given Trump’s lead and the number of votes outstanding, is P = 2.02E-109 =1/ trillion^9 = 1 in 1,000,000,000,000^9. There are approximately 1 trillion trillion or  1,000,000,000,000^2 stars in the universe. Perhaps more surprising, there are roughly  7.5 x 10^18  (7.5 million trillion) grains of sand on earth.

In the four states, 14.26m of 20.33m votes were counted. Trump led by 7.84-6.42m (54.7-44.7%). Biden needed 3.75m (61.7%) of 6.07m outstanding votes to tie Trump’s 4 state total – a 17.0% increase in vote share.


View the calculations:

Dr. Charles J. Cicchetti Ph.D., a USC economics professor and Statistician in the Texas Lawsuit Against Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, says that the probability of Biden winning the election was less than One in a Quadrillion in the brief submitted to the Supreme Court, Texas, by the Pacific Economics Group.

Dr. Cicchetti is the former Deputy Director at the Energy and Environmental Policy Center at Harvard University’s John Kennedy School of Government and received his Ph.D. in economics from Rutgers University.

According to Dr. Cicchetti, his calculations show the probability of Joe Biden winning the popular vote in the four states independently given President Trump’s early lead in those states as of 3 a.m. on November 4, 2020, is less than one in a quadrillion (1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000).

Three independent calculation methods each give Trump a 52.9% share


Posted by on December 22, 2020 in Uncategorized


2 responses to “Confirming the infinitesimally small probability of Biden winning 4 battleground states at 3am

  1. bj

    December 22, 2020 at 12:41 pm

    I was wondering what the probability of winning all those states so late in the game. He had the best shot at NC and he lost that one. PA and GA were just blatant thievery. President Trump was ahead 600K with 75% in. From that point until Biden went ahead he got 74% of nearly 1.3M votes. GA was similar but not as large. Of course it’s just the old Chicago way. Throw out enough of the other guys votes then announce you still have Philly or Atlanta to count. You count it (again) then just run it through 2-3x until you got the lead. Shameful!

    • Richard Charnin

      December 22, 2020 at 7:30 pm

      Thanks for the comment. I used the binomial distribution for each state. Given the number of votes outstanding, I calculate the number of Biden votes required to match Trump. Biden’s 12pm vote shares represent the probability applied of winning the outstanding ballots.

      P= Binomdist (ballots outstanding, Biden votes required to match Trump, Biden 12pm vote share, false)


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