Richard Charnin – Dec. 23, 2020
Did Trump win a 20m vote landslide? Let’s look at the numbers. This analysis calculates various fraud components based on public estimates applied to the 2020 recorded vote.
In 2016, 136.7m voted (59.2% of the 230.9m voting age population). In 2020, the voting age population was 239.2m. Approximately 142m (66.3%) were expected to vote. But 158.4m voted, a 21.7m increase over 2016. There was a 73.9% turnout of 214.3m registered voters.
Biden won the recorded vote by 81.3-74.2m (51.4-46.9%). Assume Biden’s vote was padded by approximately 16.4m stuffed and illegal ballots. Subtracting 16.4m from Biden’s vote, Trump won by 74.2-64.9m.
But the stuffed/illegal/dead voter ballots were not the only components of massive fraud. Assume: 1) 16.4m stuffed/illegal ballots, 2) 7% of votes flipped from Trump to Biden by media censorship/bias, 3) 1% of Trump ballots were lost (discarded), 4) 2% of Trump’s votes were flipped to Biden on rigged voting machines. Applying the adjustments, Trump won a landslide: 82.3-57.5m (57.7-40.3%) and had approximately 393 EV. Note: if there were 8 million illegal/stuffed ballots , Trump wins by 82.3-65.8m (54.5-43.6%).
William Edward Binney is a former intelligence official with the United States National Security Agency (NSA) and whistleblower. He retired on October 31, 2001, after more than 30 years with the agency. Bill Binney, Constitutional Patriot@Bill_Binney: “Judicial Watch reports from sample of 353 counties in 31 states had more than 100% eligible people registered. That’s 1.8 million more registered that eligible. And, congress+media expect us to believe no fraud? Had to be a good number of dead/illegal included. That’s 353 counties of over 3000. Assuming even distribution, that means something over 15 million total for the whole country”.
Note: Binney’s estimate of 15 million more registered than eligible voters is close to my estimate of 16.4 million stuffed ballots/illegal voters.
| Fraud Adjusted | Biden | Trump | Other |
| Recorded (000) | 81,264 | 74,217 | 2,903 |
| Share | 51.3% | 46.9% | 1.8% |
| Media flip | 7.0% | 5,688 | |
| Stuffed/illegal/dead voters | 20.2% | 16,415 | |
| Lost ballots | 1.0% | 813 | |
| Voting Machine flip | 2.0% | 1,625 | |
| Adjusted Vote (000) | 57,535 | 82,343 | 2,903 |
| Share | 40.3% | 57.7% | 2.0% |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Votes in thousands | Media flip | ||
| 4.0% | 7.0% | 10.0% | |
| Machine vote flip | Trump share | ||
| 3% | 56.5% | 58.2% | 59.9% |
| 2% | 56.0% | 57.7% | 59.4% |
| 1% | 55.4% | 57.1% | 58.8% |
| Trump votes | |||
| 3% | 80,718 | 83,156 | 85,594 |
| 2% | 79,905 | 82,343 | 84,781 |
| 1% | 79,093 | 81,531 | 83,969 |
| Biden votes | |||
| 3% | 59,160 | 56,722 | 54,284 |
| 2% | 59,973 | 57,535 | 55,097 |
| 1% | 60,785 | 58,348 | 55,910 |
| Trump Margin | |||
| 3% | 21,558 | 26,434 | 31,310 |
| 2% | 19,933 | 24,808 | 29,684 |
| 1% | 18,307 | 23,183 | 28,059 |
Voter Turnout: adjusted Gallup Party-ID
| Party | Turnout | Party-ID | Biden | Trump | Other |
| Dem | 39.9m | 30.2% | 88.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| Rep | 43.4m | 31.5% | 3.0% | 96.0% | 1.0% |
| Ind | 52.1m | 38.2% | 38.0% | 57.0% | 5.0% |
| Vote share | 100.0% | 42.1% | 55.7% | 2.2% | |
| Votes | 142.0 | 59.8 | 79.1 | 3.2 | |
| Margin/EV | 19.3m | 145EV | 393EV |
Returning voters based on 2020 National Exit poll: Trump 43%, Clinton 40%, Other/did not vote 17%. Assumed 2016 Voter Turnout in 2020: Trump 98%, Clinton 94%,Other 94%; 2016 voter mortality 4%.
| Returning 2016 Voters | Pct Mix | Biden | Trump | Other |
| Clinton | 34.6% | 92% | 7% | 1% |
| Trump | 38.8% | 3% | 96% | 1% |
| Other/DNV | 14.7% | 37% | 55% | 8% |
| New Voters | 11.9% | 41% | 52% | 7% |
| Vote share | 100.0% | 43.3% | 53.9% | 2.7% |
| Vote (millions) | 142.0 | 61.5 | 76.6 | 3.9 |
| Margin | 15.1 |
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/number-of-registered-voters-by-state
