Richard Charnin Sept. 29, 2021
Regarding AZ, this is a logical true vote analysis you won’t get from the media (or anywhere else).Consider the 2020 National Exit Poll (which is always forced to match the recorded vote). Note the 37% tie in Party-ID for Dem and Rep voters. Also note that Biden had 94% of Dems and Trump 94% of Repubs.
| 2020 NEP | Party-ID | Biden | Trump | Other |
| Dem | 37% | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| Rep | 37% | 6% | 94% | 0% |
| Ind | 26% | 54% | 41% | 5% |
| 100.0% | 51.04% | 47.29% | 1.67% |
Now check the AZ exit poll. Bidens’ share of Dems was 96%, a 2% increase over his national share. Trump had 90% of Repubs, a 4% decline from his national share. The result is a near tie, with Trump winning by 20,000 (the Official Margin had Biden winning by 10,500 votes).
| 2020 AZ | Party-ID | Biden | Trump | Other |
| Dem | 26% | 96% | 3% | 1% |
| Rep | 35% | 9% | 90% | 1% |
| Ind | 39% | 53% | 44% | 3% |
| Share | 100% | 48.78% | 49.44% | 1.78% |
| Votes | 3,144 | 1,534 | 1,554 | 56 |
Is it plausible that Biden would have a 2% higher share in AZ (a red state) over his national share and Trump a 4% lower share of Repubs? Or that Biden would win Independents by 53-44%?
Let’s assume that the AZ vote shares match the national shares and Trump and Biden each have 47% of the Independent vote. Trump wins by 241,000 votes. This is PLAUSIBLE. In fact it is very CONSERVATIVE. We can assume that Trump did better with Repubs than Biden did among Dems. And it’s implausible that Biden won Independents by 9%.
| Model | Pct | Biden | Trump | Other |
| Dem | 26% | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| Rep | 35% | 6% | 94% | 0% |
| Ind | 39% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| True Share | 100% | 44.87% | 52.53% | 2.60% |
| True Votes | 3,144 | 1,411 | 1,652 | 82 |
| Recorded | 3,387 | 1,672 | 1,661 | 54 |
| Edison Research | ||||
| Method | Pct | Biden | Trump | Other |
| Mail (Telephone) | 43 | 65 | 34 | 1 |
| Early In-Person | 24 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
| Election Day | 33 | 39 | 59 | 2 |
| NEP Total | 100 | 52.82 | 46.09 | 1.09 |
| Recorded | 100 | 51.31 | 46.86 | 1.83 |
Sensitivity Analysis
Assume the AZ exit poll as the base case scenario
Best Case: Trump wins by 261,000 votes with 53.4%
Base Case: Trump wins by 130,000 votes with 51.4%
Worst Case: Exact tie with 49.3%
| 2020 AZ | Party-ID | Biden | Trump | Other |
| Dem | 26% | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| Rep | 35% | 6% | 94% | 0% |
| Ind | 39% | 53% | 44% | 3% |
| Share | 100% | 47.21% | 51.36% | 1.43% |
| Votes (000) | 3,144 | 1,484 | 1,615 | 45 |
| Trump % Rep: 94% | % Dem | ||||
| Trump | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% base | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| % Ind | Trump share | ||||
| 48% | 52.4% | 52.7% | 52.9% | 53.2% | 53.4% |
| 46% | 51.6% | 51.9% | 52.1% | 52.4% | 52.7% |
| 44% base | 50.8% | 51.1% | 51.36% | 51.6% | 51.9% |
| 42% | 50.1% | 50.3% | 50.6% | 50.8% | 51.1% |
| 40% | 49.3% | 49.5% | 49.8% | 50.1% | 50.3% |
| Trump Votes | |||||
| 48% | 1,647 | 1,656 | 1,664 | 1,672 | 1,680 |
| 46% | 1,623 | 1,631 | 1,639 | 1,647 | 1,656 |
| 44% | 1,598 | 1,607 | 1,615 | 1,623 | 1,631 |
| 42% | 1,574 | 1,582 | 1,590 | 1,598 | 1,607 |
| 40% | 1,549 | 1,558 | 1,566 | 1,574 | 1,582 |
| Biden Votes | |||||
| 48% | 1,497 | 1,488 | 1,480 | 1,472 | 1,464 |
| 46% | 1,521 | 1,513 | 1,505 | 1,497 | 1,488 |
| 44% | 1,546 | 1,537 | 1,529 | 1,521 | 1,513 |
| 42% | 1,570 | 1,562 | 1,554 | 1,546 | 1,537 |
| 40% | 1,595 | 1,586 | 1,578 | 1,570 | 1,562 |
| Trump Margin | |||||
| 48% | 196 | 212 | 229 | 245 | 261 |
| 46% | 147 | 163 | 180 | 196 | 212 |
| 44% | 98 | 114 | 130 | 147 | 163 |
| 42% | 49 | 65 | 81 | 98 | 114 |
| 40% | 0 | 16 | 32 | 49 | 65 |
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