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A Logical Analysis proof that Trump won AZ

29 Sep

Richard Charnin Sept. 29, 2021

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Regarding AZ, this is a logical true vote analysis you won’t get from the media (or anywhere else).Consider the 2020 National Exit Poll (which is always forced to match the recorded vote). Note the 37% tie in Party-ID for Dem and Rep voters. Also note that Biden had 94% of Dems and Trump 94% of Repubs.

2020 NEPParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem37%94%5%1%
Rep37%6%94%0%
Ind26%54%41%5%
100.0%51.04%47.29%1.67%

Now check the AZ exit poll. Bidens’ share of Dems was 96%, a 2% increase over his national share. Trump had 90% of Repubs, a 4% decline from his national share. The result is a near tie, with Trump winning by 20,000 (the Official Margin had Biden winning by 10,500 votes).

2020 AZParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem26%96%3%1%
Rep35%9%90%1%
Ind39%53%44%3%
Share100%48.78%49.44%1.78%
Votes3,1441,5341,55456

Is it plausible that Biden would have a 2% higher share in AZ (a red state) over his national share and Trump a 4% lower share of Repubs? Or that Biden would win Independents by 53-44%?

Let’s assume that the AZ vote shares match the national shares and Trump and Biden each have 47% of the Independent vote. Trump wins by 241,000 votes. This is PLAUSIBLE. In fact it is very CONSERVATIVE. We can assume that Trump did better with Repubs than Biden did among Dems. And it’s implausible that Biden won Independents by 9%.

ModelPctBidenTrumpOther
Dem26%94%5%1%
Rep35%6%94%0%
Ind39%47%47%6%
True Share100%44.87%52.53%2.60%
True Votes3,1441,4111,65282
Recorded3,3871,6721,66154

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit?fbclid=IwAR1MuuGm2Jg6tL4wYSg1bpukg5-GqBp9jlRnVafi9hXasRITXn_UqFa20ws#gid=1570881996

Edison Research
MethodPctBidenTrumpOther
Mail (Telephone)4365341
Early In-Person2450500
Election Day3339592
NEP Total10052.8246.091.09
Recorded10051.3146.861.83

Sensitivity Analysis

Assume the AZ exit poll as the base case scenario

Best Case: Trump wins by 261,000 votes with 53.4%

Base Case: Trump wins by 130,000 votes with 51.4%

Worst Case: Exact tie with 49.3%

2020 AZParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem26%94%5%1%
Rep35%6%94%0%
Ind39%53%44%3%
Share100%47.21%51.36%1.43%
Votes (000)3,1441,4841,61545

Trump % Rep: 94%% Dem
Trump3.0%4.0%5.0% base6.0%7.0%
% IndTrump share
48%52.4%52.7%52.9%53.2%53.4%
46%51.6%51.9%52.1%52.4%52.7%
44% base50.8%51.1%51.36%51.6%51.9%
42%50.1%50.3%50.6%50.8%51.1%
40%49.3%49.5%49.8%50.1%50.3%
Trump Votes
48%1,6471,6561,6641,6721,680
46%1,6231,6311,6391,6471,656
44%1,5981,6071,6151,6231,631
42%1,5741,5821,5901,5981,607
40%1,5491,5581,5661,5741,582
Biden Votes
48%1,4971,4881,4801,4721,464
46%1,5211,5131,5051,4971,488
44%1,5461,5371,529 1,5211,513
42%1,5701,5621,5541,5461,537
40%1,5951,5861,5781,5701,562
Trump Margin
48%196212229245261
46%147163180196212
44%98114130 147163
42%49658198114
40%016324965
 
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Posted by on September 29, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

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