Richard Charnin – Oct. 3, 2021
2016-2020 exit poll analysis. This spreadsheet provides an analysis of the 2016 and 2020 national and battleground state exit polls. Exit polls are always forced to match a bogus recorded vote.
One way to estimate the true vote is to view the effects of changes in vote shares in the Party-ID demographic. This is accomplished with a sensitivity analysis table matrix of 25 scenarios by adjusting the recorded vote shares in 1-2% increments. Trump’s share of Republicans is assumed constant in all 25 scenarios.
View the range of vote shares, and vote margins in each of 25 scenarios. The recorded vote for 2016 and 2020 is assumed to be the worst case scenario and is located in the lower-left cell of the matrix table. The base case scenario is in the central cell.
The best case scenario is in the upper right cell. Also included for each state is the 2020 Election Model.
| https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president |
| https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results |
| https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president |
| 2016 NEP | Party-ID | Clinton | Trump | Other | Margin |
| Dem | 36% | 89% | 8% | 3% | -81% |
| Rep | 33% | 8% | 88% | 4% | 80% |
| Ind | 31% | 42% | 46% | 12% | 4% |
| Share | 100% | 47.70% | 46.18% | 6.12% | -1.52% |
| Recorded | 100% | 48.25% | 46.24% | 5.51% | -2.00% |
| Votes (mil) | 136.22 | 65.72 | 62.99 | 7.51 | -2.73 |
| 2020 NEP | Party-ID | Biden | Trump | Other | Margin |
| Dem | 37% | 94% | 5% | 1% | -89% |
| Rep | 36% | 6% | 94% | 0% | 88% |
| Ind | 27% | 54% | 41% | 5% | -13% |
| Share | 100.0% | 51.52% | 46.76% | 1.72% | -4.76% |
| Recorded | 100.0% | 51.31% | 46.86% | 1.82% | -4.45% |
| Votes (mil) | 158.38 | 81.27 | 74.22 | 2.89 | -7.05 |
| REGION | Pct | Biden | Trump | Other | Margin |
| Urban | 29% | 60% | 38% | 2% | -22% |
| Suburbs | 51% | 50% | 48% | 2% | -2% |
| Rural | 19% | 42% | 57% | 1% | 15% |
| Share | 99% | 50.88% | 46.33% | 1.79% | -4.55% |
| Votes | 158.4 | 80.6 | 73.4 | 2.8 | -7.2 |
| Recorded | 100% | 51.31% | 46.86% | 1.82% | -4.5% |
| Votes | 158.4 | 81.3 | 74.2 | 2.9 | -7.0 |
| Model | Party-ID | Biden | Trump | Other | Margin |
| Dem | 37% | 87% | 12% | 1% | -75% |
| Rep | 37% | 4% | 96% | 0% | 92% |
| Ind | 26% | 43% | 52% | 5% | 9% |
| Share | 100% | 44.85% | 53.48% | 1.67% | 8.63% |
| Votes | 158.4 | 71.0 | 84.7 | 2.6 | 13.7 |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Trump%Rep | Total votes | ||||
| 96% | 158.36 | Trump | |||
| % Dem | |||||
| Trump | 3% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 12% |
| % Ind | Trump | ||||
| 52% | 50.2% | 50.9% | 51.6% | 52.4% | 53.5% |
| 50% | 49.6% | 50.4% | 51.1% | 51.9% | 53.0% |
| 48% | 49.1% | 49.9% | 50.6% | 51.3% | 52.4% |
| 46% | 48.6% | 49.3% | 50.1% | 50.8% | 51.9% |
| 41% | 47.3% | 48.0% | 48.8% | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| Votes | |||||
| 52% | 79.4 | 80.6 | 81.8 | 82.9 | 84.7 |
| 50% | 78.6 | 79.8 | 80.9 | 82.1 | 83.9 |
| 48% | 77.8 | 78.9 | 80.1 | 81.3 | 83.0 |
| 46% | 76.9 | 78.1 | 79.3 | 80.5 | 82.2 |
| 41% | 74.9 | 76.1 | 77.2 | 78.4 | 80.2 |
| Biden | |||||
| 52% | 76.3 | 75.1 | 74.0 | 72.8 | 71.0 |
| 50% | 77.1 | 75.9 | 74.8 | 73.6 | 71.8 |
| 48% | 77.9 | 76.8 | 75.6 | 74.4 | 72.7 |
| 46% | 78.8 | 77.6 | 76.4 | 75.3 | 73.5 |
| 41% | 80.8 | 79.7 | 78.5 | 77.3 | 75.6 |
| Margin | |||||
| 52% | 3.1 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 13.7 |
| 50% | 1.5 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 12.0 |
| 48% | -0.2 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 10.4 |
| 46% | -1.8 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 8.7 |
| 41% | -5.9 | -3.6 | -1.3 | 1.1 | 4.6 |
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