2020 state vote sensitivity analysis

Richard Charnin Oct. 22, 2021

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A powerful state vote sensitivity analysis feature has been added to the 2020 Election Model.

The model will instantly generate a 5×5 matrix (25 scenarios) of Trump total vote shares and votes ( in 000) over a range of his shares of Democrats and Independents. A corresponding matrix of vote margins is also calculated.

Shares of Democrats range from 8-16%.

Shares of Independents range from 48-56%.

Trump’s share of Republicans is assumed to be 96%.

The worst case scenario is in the lowest left cell of the matrix; the most likely scenario is in the center cell, the best case is in the upper right cell.

Party-ID	Dem	Rep	Ind	Votes
AZ	34.4%	38.7%	26.9%	3,649
Trump% Rep
96%			% Dem
Trump % Ind	8%	10%	12%	14%	16%
			Share
56%	55.0%	55.7%	56.3%	57.0%	57.7%
54%	54.4%	55.1%	55.8%	56.5%	57.2%
52%	53.9%	54.6%	55.3%	56.0%	56.6%
50%	53.4%	54.0%	54.7%	55.4%	56.1%
48%	52.8%	53.5%	54.2%	54.9%	55.6%
			Votes
56%	2,006	2,031	2,056	2,081	2,106
54%	1,986	2,011	2,036	2,061	2,087
52%	1,967	1,992	2,017	2,042	2,067
50%	1,947	1,972	1,997	2,022	2,047
48%	1,927	1,952	1,977	2,003	2,028
			Biden
56%	1,583	1,558	1,533	1,508	1,483
54%	1,603	1,578	1,552	1,527	1,502
52%	1,622	1,597	1,572	1,547	1,522
50%	1,642	1,617	1,592	1,567	1,541
48%	1,662	1,636	1,611	1,586	1,561
			Margin
56%	423	473	523	573	624
54%	384	434	484	534	584
52%	344	394	445	495	545
50%	305	355	405	456	506
48%	266	316	366	416	467

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=295357622