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2020 Exit Poll probability analysis: reported and Cyber Symposium

17 Nov

Richard Charnin Nov.12, 2021

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Biden won the 24 unadjusted state exit polls by 52.6-44.9% and the national vote by 51.3-46.9%.

Trump won the corresponding 24 state Cyber vote by 50.3-47.9%; The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in15 states .

Probability P = 1 in 64 million that Trump would have 44.9% in the 24 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (1.55% MoE) and 50.3% in the Cyber vote: P= normdist (.503, .449, 1.55%/1.96, True)

Probability P = 1 in 16.7 million that 24 states would move to Trump in the Cyber vote from the unadjusted exit poll: P= binomdist (24, 24, 0.5, false)

Cyber CyberCyberRecordedDiff
Exit PolledTrumpBidenMarginMarginMargin
24 states50.31%47.89%2.42%-4.45%6.87%
AL66.2%32.4%33.7%24.9%8.8%
AZ53.2%45.2%8.0%-1.1%9.1%
CA38.4%59.4%-20.9%-30.6%9.7%
CO46.0%51.3%-5.3%-15.0%9.7%
FL55.4%43.7%11.7%2.9%8.8%
GA53.4%45.3%8.1%-0.9%8.9%
IA57.2%40.7%16.4%7.3%9.2%
KY66.2%32.0%34.2%25.3%8.9%
ME48.0%49.1%-1.1%-10.7%9.6%
MI52.0%46.5%5.5%-3.6%9.1%
MN49.4%48.3%1.1%-8.4%9.5%
MT61.0%36.4%24.5%15.3%9.2%
NC54.1%44.4%9.6%0.6%9.0%
NH49.4%48.5%0.9%-8.4%9.3%
NV47.6%45.9%1.7%-3.6%5.3%
NY41.9%56.7%-14.8%-24.0%9.2%
OH57.4%41.1%16.3%7.3%9.0%
OR44.4%52.4%-7.9%-17.9%10.0%
PA53.0%45.8%7.2%-1.8%8.9%
SC59.2%39.3%20.0%11.0%8.9%
TX56.2%42.3%13.9%4.9%9.0%
VA48.1%50.0%-1.9%-11.2%9.3%
WA42.8%53.9%-11.1%-21.2%10.1%
WI52.9%45.3%7.6%-1.5%9.1%

Trump margin deviations from exit poll

Exit PollExit PollCyberDiffDiff –Diff >
MoEMarginMarginMarginMoEMoE
US1.55%-6.40%2.42%8.82%7.27%15
AL5.5%14.5%33.7%19.2%13.7%Yes
AZ4.7%-5.6%8.0%9.1%4.3%
CA3.9%-25.0%-20.9%9.7%5.7%Yes
CO4.6%-17.9%-5.3%9.7%5.1%Yes
FL2.5%0.4%11.7%8.8%6.2%Yes
GA2.9%-2.8%8.1%8.9%6.0%Yes
IA3.8%-0.9%16.4%9.2%5.4%Yes
KY4.7%17.1%34.2%8.9%4.2%
ME5.0%-13.9%-1.1%9.6%4.5%
MI3.7%-9.2%5.5%9.1%5.4%Yes
MN3.5%-7.4%1.1%9.5%6.0%Yes
MT5.6%8.1%24.5%9.2%3.5%
NC2.8%-0.9%9.6%9.0%6.2%Yes
NH4.0%-10.1%0.9%9.3%5.2%Yes
NV3.0%-6.2%1.7%5.3%2.2%
NY6.2%-27.2%-14.8%9.2%3.0%
OH2.5%5.3%16.3%9.0%6.5%Yes
OR7.3%-17.5%-7.9%10.0%2.7%
PA3.5%-3.0%7.2%8.9%5.4%Yes
SC4.7%6.2%20.0%8.9%4.2%
TX2.8%6.6%13.9%9.0%6.2%Yes
VA2.8%-11.2%-1.9%9.3%6.5%Yes
WA7.1%-16.7%-11.1%10.1%2.9%
WI3.1%-8.0%7.6%9.1%6.1%Yes
 
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Posted by on November 17, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

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