Richard Charnin Nov.12, 2021
Biden won the 24 unadjusted state exit polls by 52.6-44.9% and the national vote by 51.3-46.9%.
Trump won the corresponding 24 state Cyber vote by 50.3-47.9%; The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in15 states .
Probability P = 1 in 64 million that Trump would have 44.9% in the 24 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (1.55% MoE) and 50.3% in the Cyber vote: P= normdist (.503, .449, 1.55%/1.96, True)
Probability P = 1 in 16.7 million that 24 states would move to Trump in the Cyber vote from the unadjusted exit poll: P= binomdist (24, 24, 0.5, false)
| Cyber | Cyber | Cyber | Recorded | Diff | |
| Exit Polled | Trump | Biden | Margin | Margin | Margin |
| 24 states | 50.31% | 47.89% | 2.42% | -4.45% | 6.87% |
| AL | 66.2% | 32.4% | 33.7% | 24.9% | 8.8% |
| AZ | 53.2% | 45.2% | 8.0% | -1.1% | 9.1% |
| CA | 38.4% | 59.4% | -20.9% | -30.6% | 9.7% |
| CO | 46.0% | 51.3% | -5.3% | -15.0% | 9.7% |
| FL | 55.4% | 43.7% | 11.7% | 2.9% | 8.8% |
| GA | 53.4% | 45.3% | 8.1% | -0.9% | 8.9% |
| IA | 57.2% | 40.7% | 16.4% | 7.3% | 9.2% |
| KY | 66.2% | 32.0% | 34.2% | 25.3% | 8.9% |
| ME | 48.0% | 49.1% | -1.1% | -10.7% | 9.6% |
| MI | 52.0% | 46.5% | 5.5% | -3.6% | 9.1% |
| MN | 49.4% | 48.3% | 1.1% | -8.4% | 9.5% |
| MT | 61.0% | 36.4% | 24.5% | 15.3% | 9.2% |
| NC | 54.1% | 44.4% | 9.6% | 0.6% | 9.0% |
| NH | 49.4% | 48.5% | 0.9% | -8.4% | 9.3% |
| NV | 47.6% | 45.9% | 1.7% | -3.6% | 5.3% |
| NY | 41.9% | 56.7% | -14.8% | -24.0% | 9.2% |
| OH | 57.4% | 41.1% | 16.3% | 7.3% | 9.0% |
| OR | 44.4% | 52.4% | -7.9% | -17.9% | 10.0% |
| PA | 53.0% | 45.8% | 7.2% | -1.8% | 8.9% |
| SC | 59.2% | 39.3% | 20.0% | 11.0% | 8.9% |
| TX | 56.2% | 42.3% | 13.9% | 4.9% | 9.0% |
| VA | 48.1% | 50.0% | -1.9% | -11.2% | 9.3% |
| WA | 42.8% | 53.9% | -11.1% | -21.2% | 10.1% |
| WI | 52.9% | 45.3% | 7.6% | -1.5% | 9.1% |
Trump margin deviations from exit poll
| Exit Poll | Exit Poll | Cyber | Diff | Diff – | Diff > | |
| MoE | Margin | Margin | Margin | MoE | MoE | |
| US | 1.55% | -6.40% | 2.42% | 8.82% | 7.27% | 15 |
| AL | 5.5% | 14.5% | 33.7% | 19.2% | 13.7% | Yes |
| AZ | 4.7% | -5.6% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 4.3% | |
| CA | 3.9% | -25.0% | -20.9% | 9.7% | 5.7% | Yes |
| CO | 4.6% | -17.9% | -5.3% | 9.7% | 5.1% | Yes |
| FL | 2.5% | 0.4% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% | Yes |
| GA | 2.9% | -2.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.0% | Yes |
| IA | 3.8% | -0.9% | 16.4% | 9.2% | 5.4% | Yes |
| KY | 4.7% | 17.1% | 34.2% | 8.9% | 4.2% | |
| ME | 5.0% | -13.9% | -1.1% | 9.6% | 4.5% | |
| MI | 3.7% | -9.2% | 5.5% | 9.1% | 5.4% | Yes |
| MN | 3.5% | -7.4% | 1.1% | 9.5% | 6.0% | Yes |
| MT | 5.6% | 8.1% | 24.5% | 9.2% | 3.5% | |
| NC | 2.8% | -0.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.2% | Yes |
| NH | 4.0% | -10.1% | 0.9% | 9.3% | 5.2% | Yes |
| NV | 3.0% | -6.2% | 1.7% | 5.3% | 2.2% | |
| NY | 6.2% | -27.2% | -14.8% | 9.2% | 3.0% | |
| OH | 2.5% | 5.3% | 16.3% | 9.0% | 6.5% | Yes |
| OR | 7.3% | -17.5% | -7.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | |
| PA | 3.5% | -3.0% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 5.4% | Yes |
| SC | 4.7% | 6.2% | 20.0% | 8.9% | 4.2% | |
| TX | 2.8% | 6.6% | 13.9% | 9.0% | 6.2% | Yes |
| VA | 2.8% | -11.2% | -1.9% | 9.3% | 6.5% | Yes |
| WA | 7.1% | -16.7% | -11.1% | 10.1% | 2.9% | |
| WI | 3.1% | -8.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 6.1% | Yes |
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