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Introducing the 2020 Race Sensitivity Analysis Model

19 Nov

Richard Charnin Nov. 19,2021

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Check out the 2020 election state race analysis model.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=1465733498

Trump’s racial shares are forced to match the Cyber Symposium PCAPS using the 2020 Census state votes for each racial group. The sensitivity analysis consists of 25 scenarios over a range of Trump shares of white and black voters.

For example, to match the AZ Cyber Symposium vote, Trump had 61% of whites, 13% of blacks, 44% of Hispanics, 34% of Asians and 41% of Others and had a 270,000 base case vote margin. The worst case margin is 79,000. The best case is 460,000. Biden “won” the rigged AZ election by 10,500 votes.

Race CensusWhiteBlackHispanicAsianOther
U.S. Share71.0%12.2%10.6%4.5%1.6%
AZ Vote2,385179814107164
AZ Share65.4%4.9%22.3%2.9%4.5%
Trump share61.0%13.0%44.0%34.0%41.0%
Biden share37.0%87.0%55.0%61.0%55.0%
Other share2.0%1.0%1.0%5.0%4.0%
ARIZONATrumpBidenOtherTotalMargin
Cyber votes1,8021,532533,387270
Reported votes1,6621,672533,387-10.5
Cyber share53.2%45.2%1.6%100%8.0%
Reported share49.1%49.4%1.6%100%-0.3%
% HispanicAZTrump% White
44.0%57%59%61%63%65%
% BlackMargin
17%106194283371460
15%99188276365453
13%92181270358447
11%86174263351440
9%79168256345433
Trump
17%50.8%52.1%53.4%54.7%56.0%
15%50.7%52.0%53.3%54.6%55.9%
13%50.6%51.9%53.2%54.5%55.8%
11%50.5%51.8%53.1%54.4%55.7%
9%50.4%51.7%53.0%54.3%55.6%
Biden
17%47.7%46.3%45.0%43.7%42.4%
15%47.8%46.4%45.1%43.8%42.5%
13%47.8%46.5%45.2%43.9%42.6%
11%47.9%46.6%45.3%44.0%42.7%
9%48.0%46.7%45.4%44.1%42.8%
Trump
17%1,7201,7641,8081,8531,897
15%1,7171,7611,8051,8491,894
13%1,7131,7581,8021,8461,890
11%1,7101,7541,7981,8431,887
9%1,7071,7511,7951,8391,884
Biden
17%1,6141,5701,5261,4811,437
15%1,6171,5731,5291,4851,440
13%1,6211,5761,5321,4881,444
11%1,6241,5801,5361,4911,447
9%1,6271,5831,5391,4951,450

 
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Posted by on November 19, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

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