Richard Charnin Nov. 19,2021
Check out the 2020 election state race analysis model.
Trump’s racial shares are forced to match the Cyber Symposium PCAPS using the 2020 Census state votes for each racial group. The sensitivity analysis consists of 25 scenarios over a range of Trump shares of white and black voters.
For example, to match the AZ Cyber Symposium vote, Trump had 61% of whites, 13% of blacks, 44% of Hispanics, 34% of Asians and 41% of Others and had a 270,000 base case vote margin. The worst case margin is 79,000. The best case is 460,000. Biden “won” the rigged AZ election by 10,500 votes.
| Race Census | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Other |
| U.S. Share | 71.0% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| AZ Vote | 2,385 | 179 | 814 | 107 | 164 |
| AZ Share | 65.4% | 4.9% | 22.3% | 2.9% | 4.5% |
| Trump share | 61.0% | 13.0% | 44.0% | 34.0% | 41.0% |
| Biden share | 37.0% | 87.0% | 55.0% | 61.0% | 55.0% |
| Other share | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% |
| ARIZONA | Trump | Biden | Other | Total | Margin |
| Cyber votes | 1,802 | 1,532 | 53 | 3,387 | 270 |
| Reported votes | 1,662 | 1,672 | 53 | 3,387 | -10.5 |
| Cyber share | 53.2% | 45.2% | 1.6% | 100% | 8.0% |
| Reported share | 49.1% | 49.4% | 1.6% | 100% | -0.3% |
| % Hispanic | AZ | Trump | % White | ||
| 44.0% | 57% | 59% | 61% | 63% | 65% |
| % Black | Margin | ||||
| 17% | 106 | 194 | 283 | 371 | 460 |
| 15% | 99 | 188 | 276 | 365 | 453 |
| 13% | 92 | 181 | 270 | 358 | 447 |
| 11% | 86 | 174 | 263 | 351 | 440 |
| 9% | 79 | 168 | 256 | 345 | 433 |
| Trump | |||||
| 17% | 50.8% | 52.1% | 53.4% | 54.7% | 56.0% |
| 15% | 50.7% | 52.0% | 53.3% | 54.6% | 55.9% |
| 13% | 50.6% | 51.9% | 53.2% | 54.5% | 55.8% |
| 11% | 50.5% | 51.8% | 53.1% | 54.4% | 55.7% |
| 9% | 50.4% | 51.7% | 53.0% | 54.3% | 55.6% |
| Biden | |||||
| 17% | 47.7% | 46.3% | 45.0% | 43.7% | 42.4% |
| 15% | 47.8% | 46.4% | 45.1% | 43.8% | 42.5% |
| 13% | 47.8% | 46.5% | 45.2% | 43.9% | 42.6% |
| 11% | 47.9% | 46.6% | 45.3% | 44.0% | 42.7% |
| 9% | 48.0% | 46.7% | 45.4% | 44.1% | 42.8% |
| Trump | |||||
| 17% | 1,720 | 1,764 | 1,808 | 1,853 | 1,897 |
| 15% | 1,717 | 1,761 | 1,805 | 1,849 | 1,894 |
| 13% | 1,713 | 1,758 | 1,802 | 1,846 | 1,890 |
| 11% | 1,710 | 1,754 | 1,798 | 1,843 | 1,887 |
| 9% | 1,707 | 1,751 | 1,795 | 1,839 | 1,884 |
| Biden | |||||
| 17% | 1,614 | 1,570 | 1,526 | 1,481 | 1,437 |
| 15% | 1,617 | 1,573 | 1,529 | 1,485 | 1,440 |
| 13% | 1,621 | 1,576 | 1,532 | 1,488 | 1,444 |
| 11% | 1,624 | 1,580 | 1,536 | 1,491 | 1,447 |
| 9% | 1,627 | 1,583 | 1,539 | 1,495 | 1,450 |
Richard Charnin's Blog 