Richard Charnin Nov. 29,2021
Probability analysis: 24 Unadjusted state exit polls vs. recorded vote vs. Cyber Symposium PCAPS.
The deviations are far beyond the state exit poll margin of error. They cannot be explained as being due to chance. Trust the Cyber symposium votes. The unadjusted exit poll and recorded votes are bogus.
N= number of the 24 states exit polled in which the margin of error was exceeded (only 1-2 would be expected at the 95% confidence level)
Vote discrepancy: n=Number of states; Probability P=poisson (n,0.025*24,false)
Exit vs recorded: n=8; P= 1 in 4.4 million
Cyber vs recorded: n=14; P= 1 in 202 trillion
Exit v Cyber: n=15; P= 1 in 5000 trillion
Exit Poll flip: n=24; P = 1 in 16.8 million; P=binomdist (24,24,0.5,false)
Trump had 44.9% in the 24 state exit poll weighted average and 50.3% in the corresponding Cyber average. The probability of the deviation assuming a 1.5% margin of error is P= 1 in 264 million.
P=normdist ( 0.449,0.503,0.0155/1.96,false) =1/264 million