RSS

Probability analysis: 24 Unadjusted state exit polls vs. recorded vote vs. Cyber Symposium PCAPS.

29 Nov

Richard Charnin Nov. 29,2021

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

Probability analysis: 24 Unadjusted state exit polls vs. recorded vote vs. Cyber Symposium PCAPS.

The deviations are far beyond the state exit poll margin of error. They cannot be explained as being due to chance. Trust the Cyber symposium votes. The unadjusted exit poll and recorded votes are bogus.

N= number of the 24 states exit polled in which the margin of error was exceeded (only 1-2 would be expected at the 95% confidence level)

Vote discrepancy: n=Number of states; Probability P=poisson (n,0.025*24,false)

Exit vs recorded: n=8; P= 1 in 4.4 million

Cyber vs recorded: n=14; P= 1 in 202 trillion

Exit v Cyber: n=15; P= 1 in 5000 trillion

Exit Poll flip: n=24; P = 1 in 16.8 million; P=binomdist (24,24,0.5,false)

Trump had 44.9% in the 24 state exit poll weighted average and 50.3% in the corresponding Cyber average. The probability of the deviation assuming a 1.5% margin of error is P= 1 in 264 million.

P=normdist ( 0.449,0.503,0.0155/1.96,false) =1/264 million

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=584196755

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on November 29, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: