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CNN Biden 12/16 approval is 49%, but is 34% when calculated using poll respondents political affiliation and vote shares

17 Dec

Richard Charnin 12/16/21

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CNN misleads on Biden Approval (49%). But it is just 34% based on their own internal polling numbers (calculations below). Of course, do you really expect the truth from the MSM?

“The 12/16 poll finds roughly two-thirds (66%) have doubts and reservations about Biden’s leadership, including 92% of Republicans, 75% of independents and 36% of Democrats. Still, Biden’s overall approval holds about even at 49% approve to 51% disapprove. Those approval ratings are similar to recent polls from AP-NORC and Reuters/Ipsos”.

But the ratings conflict with the actual poll calculation which shows that Biden has 34% approval. And this assumes that Biden’s vote shares are legitimate and were not inflated. If they were, his True approval is even lower than 34%. Biden has 33% approval if the 2020 National Exit poll party-ID weights are used.

View the Reuters poll below: Biden 48% approve; 46% disapprove? Sure, and I have a bridge in Brooklyn for you. But at least Reuters bogus Party-ID and vote shares agree with the rating.

The Civiqs poll (36% approval) makes sense. It agrees with the 34.8% calculation using NEP weights.

Biden approval 1CNNApproveDisapprove
Democrat36%64%36%
Republican28%8%92%
Independent36%25%75%
CALCULATED100%34%66%
Biden Approval 2NEPApproveDisapprove
Democrat36%64%36%
Republican36%8%92%
Independent28%25%75%
CALCULATED100%33%67%

Sensitivity Analysis – Biden total approval for 15 scenarios: 60,64,68% Democratic approval, 19,23,27% Independent and 8% Republican

Republican 8%
Democrat
Independent60%64%68%
27%32.0%33.5%34.9%
25%31.5%32.9%34.4%
23%30.9%32.4%33.8%
21%30.4%31.8%33.2%
19%29.8%31.2%32.7%
ReutersParty-IDApproveDisapprove
Democrat45.7%81%19%
Republican40.6%17%83%
Independent13.7%39%61%
Calculated100%49.3%50.7%
Actual48%46%

Real Clear Politics Biden approval trend: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

CNN Poll: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/15/politics/cnn-poll-economy/index.html https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21154775-rel8a-biden-economy?responsive=1&title=1

CiviqsNEP Party IDApproveDisapproveNo opinion
Democrat36%76%10%14%
Republican36%2%96%2%
Independent28%24%55%21%
CALCULATED100%34.8%53.6%11.6%
Actual36%55%9%
 
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Posted by on December 17, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

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