Richard Charnin 12/16/21
CNN misleads on Biden Approval (49%). But it is just 34% based on their own internal polling numbers (calculations below). Of course, do you really expect the truth from the MSM?
“The 12/16 poll finds roughly two-thirds (66%) have doubts and reservations about Biden’s leadership, including 92% of Republicans, 75% of independents and 36% of Democrats. Still, Biden’s overall approval holds about even at 49% approve to 51% disapprove. Those approval ratings are similar to recent polls from AP-NORC and Reuters/Ipsos”.
But the ratings conflict with the actual poll calculation which shows that Biden has 34% approval. And this assumes that Biden’s vote shares are legitimate and were not inflated. If they were, his True approval is even lower than 34%. Biden has 33% approval if the 2020 National Exit poll party-ID weights are used.
View the Reuters poll below: Biden 48% approve; 46% disapprove? Sure, and I have a bridge in Brooklyn for you. But at least Reuters bogus Party-ID and vote shares agree with the rating.
The Civiqs poll (36% approval) makes sense. It agrees with the 34.8% calculation using NEP weights.
| Biden approval 1 | CNN | Approve | Disapprove |
| Democrat | 36% | 64% | 36% |
| Republican | 28% | 8% | 92% |
| Independent | 36% | 25% | 75% |
| CALCULATED | 100% | 34% | 66% |
| Biden Approval 2 | NEP | Approve | Disapprove |
| Democrat | 36% | 64% | 36% |
| Republican | 36% | 8% | 92% |
| Independent | 28% | 25% | 75% |
| CALCULATED | 100% | 33% | 67% |
Sensitivity Analysis – Biden total approval for 15 scenarios: 60,64,68% Democratic approval, 19,23,27% Independent and 8% Republican
| Republican 8% | Democrat | ||
| Independent | 60% | 64% | 68% |
| 27% | 32.0% | 33.5% | 34.9% |
| 25% | 31.5% | 32.9% | 34.4% |
| 23% | 30.9% | 32.4% | 33.8% |
| 21% | 30.4% | 31.8% | 33.2% |
| 19% | 29.8% | 31.2% | 32.7% |
| Reuters | Party-ID | Approve | Disapprove |
| Democrat | 45.7% | 81% | 19% |
| Republican | 40.6% | 17% | 83% |
| Independent | 13.7% | 39% | 61% |
| Calculated | 100% | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Actual | 48% | 46% |
Real Clear Politics Biden approval trend: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html
CNN Poll: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/15/politics/cnn-poll-economy/index.html https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21154775-rel8a-biden-economy?responsive=1&title=1
| Civiqs | NEP Party ID | Approve | Disapprove | No opinion |
| Democrat | 36% | 76% | 10% | 14% |
| Republican | 36% | 2% | 96% | 2% |
| Independent | 28% | 24% | 55% | 21% |
| CALCULATED | 100% | 34.8% | 53.6% | 11.6% |
| Actual | 36% | 55% | 9% |
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