Richard Charnin – 4/28/22
What is the probability P that Covid-19 would spread among several dozen leading Democrats and Biden officials after a dinner hosted by the Gridiron Club, where PROOF OF VACCINE WAS REQUIRED?
Assume N=100 at dinner, n= 24 infected, R= 2% infection rate, T=1 week= .019 year
P = poisson (n, N*R*T, false)
P=1.70E-58 = (1/trillion}^5
Assuming N=2000, P= 1.38E-27 = 1/trillion^2