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Probability that Covid-19 would spread among several dozen leading Democrats and Biden officials

28 Apr

Richard Charnin – 4/28/22

What is the probability P that Covid-19 would spread among several dozen leading Democrats and Biden officials after a dinner hosted by the Gridiron Club, where PROOF OF VACCINE WAS REQUIRED?

P= 1/trillion*trillion*trillion*trillion*trillion

Assume N=100 at dinner, n= 24 infected, R= 2% infection rate, T=1 week= .019 year

P = poisson (n, N*R*T, false)

P=1.70E-58 = (1/trillion}^5

Assuming N=2000, P= 1.38E-27 = 1/trillion^2

NnProb
100241.70E-58
500248.70E-42
1,000241.20E-34
1,500241.67E-30
2,000241.38E-27
5,000241.54E-18

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/08/covid-19-spreads-democrats-biden-officials?fbclid=IwAR3qV91ScVhVB6Ls6H1BXOZxqtTx5GsKETRotuWfnjvo1_zuyi__jAnIX2I

 
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Posted by on April 28, 2022 in Uncategorized

 

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