Probability that Covid-19 would spread among several dozen leading Democrats and Biden officials

Richard Charnin – 4/28/22

What is the probability P that Covid-19 would spread among several dozen leading Democrats and Biden officials after a dinner hosted by the Gridiron Club, where PROOF OF VACCINE WAS REQUIRED?

P= 1/trillion*trillion*trillion*trillion*trillion

Assume N=100 at dinner, n= 24 infected, R= 2% infection rate, T=1 week= .019 year

P = poisson (n, N*R*T, false)

P=1.70E-58 = (1/trillion}^5

Assuming N=2000, P= 1.38E-27 = 1/trillion^2

N	n	Prob
100	24	1.70E-58
500	24	8.70E-42
1,000	24	1.20E-34
1,500	24	1.67E-30
2,000	24	1.38E-27
5,000	24	1.54E-18

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/08/covid-19-spreads-democrats-biden-officials?fbclid=IwAR3qV91ScVhVB6Ls6H1BXOZxqtTx5GsKETRotuWfnjvo1_zuyi__jAnIX2I