Walker vs Warnock- Walker would win a fair election with 53% but Warnock will steal the election with 51%

Richard Charnin 12/6/22

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tDOB0CluCXUWVDcnav6hMgQNIUZ0y_J3UY8oW5U0i4s/edit#gid=0

Turnout Sensitivity Analysis

Turnout Pct Walker Warnock

Democrat 36.0% 12% 88%

Republican 36.0% 95% 5%

Independent 28.0% 50% 50%

Calc 100% 52.5% 47.5%

Race Pct Walker Warnock

White 60.0% 71% 29%

Black 33.0% 20% 80%

Other 7.0% 50% 50%

Calc 100% 52.7% 47.3%

Sensitivity analysis

36% Dem-36% Rep-28% Ind

Walker shares

% Rep 95% % Dem

% Ind 6% 9% 12% 15% 18%

54% 51.5% 52.6% 53.6% 54.7% 55.8%

52% 50.9% 52.0% 53.1% 54.2% 55.2%

50% 50.4% 51.4% 52.5% 53.6% 54.7%

48% 49.8% 50.9% 52.0% 53.0% 54.1%

46% 49.2% 50.3% 51.4% 52.5% 53.6%

Race Sensitivity analysis

60% White-33Black-7Other

Walker shares

% Other 50% %White

% Black 67% 69% 71% 73% 75%

24% 51.6% 52.8% 54.0% 55.2% 56.4%

22% 51.0% 52.2% 53.4% 54.6% 55.8%

20% 50.3% 51.5% 52.7% 53.9% 55.1%

18% 49.6% 50.8% 52.0% 53.2% 54.4%

16% 49.0% 50.2% 51.4% 52.6% 53.8%

#HerschelWalker#DonaldJTrump#elonMusk#kerrlake#SteveBannon#JimFetzer#TuckerCarlson#DanBall