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Category Archives: 2010 Midterms, Senate (WI,IL,PA) & Governor (WI,FL,NJ,OH,PA)

2010 Midterms Model – LV forecast matches Sabato’s Crystal Ball and…

Richard Charnin’s 2010 Midterm House and Senate Forecast Models: RV/LV Polls and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Oct. 28, 2010

http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm

The Charnin 2010 House and Senate forecast model is based on a comprehensive analysis of Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls. The LV projections have been confirmed by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Electoral-vote.com.

All pre-election polls interview registered voters (RV); likely voters (LV) are a sub-sample based on the likely voter cutoff model (LVCM). But realclearpolitics.com and the media focus on likely voters. During the last month in every election cycle, RV polls are largely unreported by the media.

The Charnin model goes further than these and other models. It does not assume that LV polls are representative of the electorate. It is true that since the 2000 election, final projections based on likely voter (LV) polls have been quite accurate in predicting the recorded vote. But the recorded vote represents a fraudulent vote count.
Every one knows it. But only election activists talk about it.

In fact, projections based on RV polls closely approximate the True Vote. The RV polls measure the true intent of the voters – before their votes are hacked by unverifiable voting machines and central tabulators. LV polls predict a miscounted recorded vote. The pollsters and pundits don’t dare talk about that.

Therefore a simple model of vote miscount is:
Fraud = RV – LV

Pollsters and media pundits are paid to project the official recorded vote. By utilizing LV polls, they anticipate the election fraud they know is coming; the LV polls are a proxy for the recorded vote. They should project both the recorded and True Vote – but they dare not mention the fraud factor. They ignore the fact that since the 2000 election, RV projections have closely matched the unadjusted exit polls (i.e. the True Vote). In the 2006 midterms and 2008 presidential elections, RV projections gave the Democrats a 7% higher margin than the corresponding final LVs.

In 2006 the unadjusted National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats had a 56.4% share, matching the pre-election RV trend. But the Final NEP was forced to match the 53% recorded share.

In 2008 final pre-election RV polls indicated that Obama would win by 15%; the LV polls projected a 7% margin. Unadjusted 2008 exit poll data has not and will not be made available. That would be nice. But a True Vote analysis based on Final 2008 NEP vote shares indicates that Obama had a 58% share and won by 22 million votes. The impossible NEP returning percentage of phantom Bush voters was replaced by a feasible mix, just like it was in calculating the 2004 True Vote.

In 2010, it’s still the same old story. We can expect that the recorded vote will match the average LV projection.

The Democrats lead 18 Senate RV polls by 8.5% but only by 1.5% in the corresponding LV polls.
The GOP leads the latest House Generic LV polls by 6.6% and the RV polls by just 1.2%.

The key question is: will Democratic voter turnout overcome the systemic fraud component?

Senate Simulation Forecast
(UVA – undecided voter allocation)

Forecast Seats
Democrats GOP Dem Margin
Charnin Model
I. Equal undecided voter split

No fraud................. 52.8 45.2 7.6
Registered Voter (RV).... 52.9 45.1 7.8

Fraud: 3% Vote switch..... 49.2 48.8 1.4
Likely Voter (LV)......... 49.9 48.1 1.8 (projected recorded seats)

Larry Sabato: Crystal Ball.......49 49 0 (close match to above LV / Fraud)
Electoral-vote.com.............. 50 49 1

Charnin Model
II. Undecided voters break to Democrats
UVA: 60% Dem / 40% GOP

No fraud.................... 54.1 43.9 10.2
Registered Voter (RV).... 53.9 44.1 8.8

Fraud: 3% Vote switch.. 50.8 47.2 3.6
Likely Voter (LV).......... 51.1 46.9 4.2

House Forecast Models
Forecast Seats
Democrats GOP GOP Margin
Charnin Model
I. Equal undecided voter split

Registered Voter (RV).... 213 222 9
Likely Voter (LV).......... 201 234 33 (projected fraudulent result)

II. Undecided voters break to Democrats
UVA: 60% Dem / 40% GOP

No fraud............. 218 217 -1 (Dems retain control if they get a heavy turnout and undecided voters)
Fraud: 3% Vote switch.. 205 230 25

Larry Sabato - Crystal Ball 202 233 31 (close match to LV/ Fraud)
Electoral-vote.com....... 206 209 3 (20 seats are too close to call)

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2010 Midterms: What the Pollsters and Pundits Will and Won’t Tell You

2010 Midterms: What the Pollsters and Pundits Will and Won’t Tell You

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)

Oct. 27, 2010

They tell you that since the 2000 selection, likely voter (LV) pre-election polls have been very accurate in matching the recorded vote. That is true. But they won’t tell you that the votes were miscounted in each election. Elections were stolen in 2000 and 2004 and landslides denied in 2006 and 2008 due to Election Fraud, not by non-existent: “voter fraud”. In fact, LV polls have been good predictors of stolen elections.

They tell you that registered voter polls (RV) don’t reflect actual voter turnout. It’s true- not all registered voter turnout. But they won’t tell you that predictions based on RV polls closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in 2004, 2006 and 2008. Or that over 80 million votes were uncounted in the 11 elections since 1968.

They tell you that Republicans are poised to net close to 60 seats. But they won’t tell you that predictions based on likely voter (LV) polls are biased to the Republicans since most registered voters who do not pass the likely voter cutoff model (LVCM) screen are Democrats. Or that 10% are undecided.

They tell you that the Republicans have an outside chance of taking the Senate. But they don’t tell you that the Democrats lead the weighted average of 18 senate RV polls by 49.4-40.4% and are ahead in 11 of the 18. But they lead by just 46.5-45.3% in the corresponding LV polls in which they are projected to win 8.

They tell you that the exit polls reflect the voting demographic. But they won’t tell you that final exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.

They tell you that 2004 pre-election polls predicted Bush would win. But they won’t tell you they were LV polls before allocating undecided voters. Or that the RV polls adjusted for undecided voters predicted a 51-48% Kerry win. Or that Kerry won the 114,000 state unadjusted exit poll aggregate by 52-47%. Or that he won the 13,047 respondent Preliminary 12:22am National Exit Poll by 51-48% before it was reversed to match the recorded vote in the 13,660 respondent Final.

They tell you that Bush won by 3 million votes. But they won’t tell you that the Final NEP required over 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were still living in 2004 in order to match the recorded vote.

They tell you that in the 2006 midterms, the Democrats won the House by 52-46% (230-205 seats). But they won’t tell you that the final pre-election polls had the Democrats winning by 15% and the unadjusted NEP by 15%. Or that15-20 Democratic seats were stolen (primarily in FL, OH, NM and IL).

They tell you that the 2008 pre-election LV polls predicted Obama’s 52.9-45.6% recorded share– a 9.5 million vote margin. But they don’t tell you that the RV polls projected that he would win by 15% and that he won the True Vote by 17% (22 million votes).

They tell you that the 2008 NEP shows that Obama won by 7%. But they won’t tell you that the NEP required a 103% turnout of living 2004 Bush voters to match the recorded vote: 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. And they won’t tell you that 5 million returning third party voters were also required even though only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004. They won’t explain why unadjusted and preliminary exit poll results have never been made available.

In the 2010 midterms, they will produce final exit polls that we know are forced to match the recorded vote. They won’t tell you why the unadjusted and preliminary exit polls won’t be released. But the cat is out of the bag. We know why: they would show that the Democrats did much better than the recorded vote and that the GOP stole 20 House and perhaps 3 Senate seats.

Lincoln was right: You can fool some of the people all of the time.

 

2010 Midterm Election Forecast Models

2010 Midterm House and Senate Forecast Models: RV/LV Polls, Undecided Voters and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm

Oct. 8, 2010

The House and Senate forecast models provide a comprehensive analysis of Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls. The assumption is that the election is held today. Pre-election polls interview registered voters; likely voter polls are a sub-sample based on a likely voter cutoff model (LVCM). They are not separate polls.

The Senate model employs simulation analysis of the latest RV and LV polls to forecast average GOP net gains, associated win probabilities and trends. The built-in sensitivity analysis displays the effects of various undecided voter allocation and vote-switching scenarios.

The House model provides a summary comparison of the latest RV and LV Generic polls, win probabilities and a moving average projection. As in the Senate model, the sensitivity analyses displays the effect of various undecided voter and vote-switching assumptions on forecast vote shares, House seats and win probabilities. The 2010 summary table illustrates the wide difference between Rasmussen and other pollsters. The 2006-2010 Generic Poll table provides a historical context.

Democrats always do better in the full RV sample than in the LV sub-sample. LV polls exclude millions of registered voters who actually vote – and most of them are Democrats. In addition, millions of votes are cast but never counted in every election – and most of them are Democratic as well. The good news is that proliferation of electronic voting has reduced the uncounted vote rate. The bad news is that votes can be switched, stuffed or dropped at the voting machine and/or the central tabulator where they are counted.

Polling websites generally display only Senate LV polls. CNN/Time has provided both RV and LV samples, but only the LVs are listed at realclearpolitics.com. The Senate RV model forecast model is therefore a mix of RV and LV polls. Without a corresponding RV poll for every LV sub-sample, a comparable analysis is difficult.

Unlike the Senate, House Generic polls have been primarily RV samples (except for Rasmussen which only provides LV sub-samples). But the ratio will shift to virtually all LVs as Election Day approaches.

Latest Polling Analysis

Gallup
The GOP leads the full 3000 RV sample by 46-43%
The GOP leads the 1883 LV sub-sample by 53-40%.
Therefore, 1118 RV respondents did not pass the Gallup LVCM. The Democrats lead this group by 48-35%.

Rasmussen
The GOP leads the LV sub-sample by 45-42%. They led in the prior poll by 46-40%.
Rasmussen does not provide RV poll results.

Senate Models

RV & LV (15 RV and 22 LV polls) (Table 1)
The RV polls are from CNN/Time.
The Democrats have a 52.7-45.3 simulated seat margin (100% win probability).
The Democrats lead the 37-poll weighted average by 45.3-44.3%.

LV (37 polls)
Most polls are from Rasmussen.
The Democrats have a 49.6-48.4 simulated seat margin (88% win probability).
The GOP leads the LV poll weighted average by 47.2-43.4%.
Each 1% incremental vote-switch to the GOP gives them 2 additional seats (Table 5).

RV (15) vs. LV (15) sub-sample (Table 1a)
The Democrats lead the RV poll unweighted average by 48.7-40.8% and the LV sub-sample by 46.5-45.3%.
The Democrats win 10-12 of the 15 races (2 are tied) in the full RV sample and 7 in the LV sub-sample.
The Democrats win 8 seats if 50% of the registered voters excluded in the LV sub-sample are included.

House Models

Latest 13 RV polls (Table 6)
The GOP leads the average RV poll by 45.7-43.8%.
The GOP has a 224-211 seat margin (74% win probability).

Latest 15 LV polls
The GOP leads the average LV poll by 47.4-40.3%
The GOP has a 235-200 projected seat margin (99% win probability).
Each 1% incremental vote-switch to the GOP gives them 4 additional seats.

2010 Generic polls (Table 9)
The GOP leads the 116 non-Rasmussen poll average by 45.0-43.2% with a projected 223-212 majority and 69% win probability.
The GOP leads the 38 Rasmussen poll average by 45.2-37.1% with a projected 237-198 majority and 99.6% win probability.

Gallup Poll
GOP leads the 3000 RV sample by 46-43% and the 1883 LV sub-sample by 53-40.
There were 1118 RV respondents rejected by the LVCM. The Democrats led this group by 48-35%,
Therefore, 1118 RV respondents did not pass the Gallup LVCM. The Democrats lead this group by 48-35%.

Rasmussen
The GOP leads the LV sub-sample by 45-42%. They led in the prior poll by 46-40%.
Rasmussen does not provide RV poll results.

Pollsters Are Paid To Predict the Recorded Vote – Not the True Vote

The media/pollster drumbeat of a “horse race” is largely based on the LV polls. The focus on LV polls conditions the public to expect a recorded vote which in fact will surely understate the True Democratic share. The pollsters discount the RV sample, fully expecting that their LV projections will be a close match to a fraudulent recorded vote – but they never mention the F-word. They know that votes are miscounted in every election. And so their final LV-based poll predictions are usually quite accurate. Pollsters are paid to predict the recorded vote – not the True Vote.

As Election Day approaches, the MSM gradually phases out RV polls for LV polls which lowball the projected Democratic vote share. And so the general public is prepared for the fraudulent recorded vote-counts that the MSM knows are coming.

Since 2000, LV poll projections have closely matched recorded vote shares while RV poll projections closely matched unadjusted and preliminary state and national exit polls. In each election, the final exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote. In 2004 and 2008, the Final National Exit Poll required impossible returning Bush voter turnout in order to match the recorded vote. Since pre-election LV poll predictions also matched the recorded vote, what can we conclude?

The media cites low Democratic enthusiasm in the 2010 midterms, but turnout will exceed the LV sub-sample. Unfortunately, most pollsters won’t provide RV samples in the two weeks prior to the election. The media will gush on how close the final LV predictions came to the vote but ignore the real reason: systemic election fraud.

The Fraud Component

In 2004, 2006 and 2008, projections based on final pre-election LV polls underestimated voter turnout and yet closely matched impossible final exit polls and fraudulent recorded vote counts. Projections based on final pre-election RV polls (adjusted for undecided voters) were a close match to the unadjusted exit polls and the True Vote.

Pre-election Model:
Recorded vote share = LV poll projection = RV poll projection + Fraud component

Post-election Model:
Recorded vote share = Final Exit Poll = Unadjusted exit poll + Fraud component

Senate:
Projected GOP LV (Recorded) Share:
LV poll projection = 49.4 = 46.0 + Fraud component
Fraud component = 3.4%

Assuming the RV projection represents the True Vote (zero fraud):
Each additional 1% vote-switch results in a GOP gain of 2 seats (Table 5).

Projected GOP House Vote Share:
Share = 53.53 = 50.96 + Fraud component
Fraud component = 2.57%

Assuming the RV projection represents the True Vote (zero fraud):
Each additional 1% vote-switch results in a GOP gain of 4 seats (Table 7).

The Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM)

In 2004, there were 22 million voters who did not vote in 2000. Nearly 60% of newly registered voters were Democrats for Kerry. In the 2006 midterms, a Democratic tsunami gave them control of both houses. In 2008, there were approximately 15 million new voters of whom 70% voted for Obama. All pre-election polls interview registered voters. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the full Registered Voter (RV) sample. LV polls exclude most “new” registered voters – first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election.

Most pollsters use the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM), a series of questions regarding past voting history, residential transience, intent to vote, etc. Since students, transients, low-income voters, immigrant new voters, etc. are much more likely to give “No” answers than established, wealthier, non-transient voters, Republicans are more likely to exceed the cutoff than Democrats. A respondent who indicates “yes” to four out of seven questions might be down-weighted to 50% compared to one who answers “yes” to all seven.

The LVCM assigns a weight of zero to all respondents falling below the cutoff, eliminating them from the sample. But these potential voters have more than a zero probability of voting. The number of “Yes” answers required to qualify as a likely voter is set based on how the pollster wants the sample to turn out. The more Republicans the pollster wants in the sample, the more “Yes” answers are required. This serves to eliminate many Democrats and skews the sample to the GOP.

Undecided Voters, Turnout and Final Exit Polls

In 1988, 11 million votes were uncounted; in 2000, 6 million; in 2004, 4 million; in 2006, 3 million.

In 2004, 2006 and 2008, projections based on final pre-election LV polls closely matched fraudulent recorded vote shares. Projections based on the final pre-election RV polls closely matched the unadjusted exit polls. Undecided voters typically break heavily for the challenger. In each of the last three elections, the Democrats were the challengers, but many pollsters did not allocate accordingly. Democratic voter turnout was underestimated by the pre-election LV polls (see 2004 Final Pre-election polls).

Final exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote count (i.e. the final pre-election LV polls). The underlying assumption is that the recorded vote is correct (i.e. zero fraud). In 2004 and 2008, the Final National Exit Polls required an impossible turnout of returning Bush voters (110% and 103%, respectivrely). In the 2004 Final (13660 respondents), the Bush vote shares were increased dramatically over the 12:22am Preliminary NEP (13047 respondents). The NEP media consortium of news outlets FOX, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS and NBC has suppressed the release of 2008 unadjusted state exit polls and unforced preliminary national exit polls.

Once again, as in every election cycle, the media avoids the real issues. Martha Coakley won the hand-counts in Massachusetts for Ted Kennedy’s seat but lost to Scott Brown; Vic Rawl won the absentee vote but lost to unknown Alvin Greene in the South Carolina Democratic Senate primary; Mike Castle won the absentee ballots but lost to Christine O’Donnell in the Delaware GOP Senate primary. But there has not been a peep about any of this in the mainstream media. Apparently, we must just accept the conventional wisdom that even though the votes have vanished in cyberspace and can never be verified, they were not tampered with. The media lockdown is not limited to past stolen elections. The MSM prepares us for election fraud by listing final pre-election LV polls and ignoring RV polls.

 
 
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