2011 WI Supreme Court: Cumulative Vote Shares confirm the Stolen Election
2004 Election Fraud: Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
1988-2012 Presidential Elections: The Master Spreadsheet
1968-2012 Presidential True Vote Model
Cumulative Vote Shares: Indicators of Rigged Elections
Cumulative Vote Share Spreadsheet Reference
Before discussing the CVS (below), a quick review: Kloppenburg (Independent) apparently won the election by 200 votes. But two days later, 14,000 votes were “found” in Waukesha County. Prosser (Republican) was declared the unofficial winner by 7,000 votes. The subsequent recount was a travesty. Scores of slit ballot bags and poll tapes dated a week before the election were uncovered. A stack of 50 consecutive Prosser ballots were found in Verona where Kloppenburg won 67% of the recorded vote – a zero probability.
The 2011 WI Supreme Court True Vote Model was enhanced to calculate the True Vote in all counties. It indicated that Kloppenburg won the election. Assuming a 50% turnout of both Obama and McCain voters, the recorded margin required implausibly low 81% Kloppenburg share of returning Obama voters while Prosser had 93% of returning McCain voters.
Assuming Kloppenburg actually had 88% of returning Obama voters and just 50% of 70,000 returning third-party and new voters, then she won by 99,000 votes with a 53.3% vote share. The Cumulative Vote Share analysis confirms the True Vote Model: Kloppenburg had 53.5% in the TVM and 52.2% at the CVS 25% mark.
As previously shown in the 2014 WI Governor and in the 2012 Recall election, CVS anomalies occurred in the largest counties where the average ward vote is higher than in smaller, rural (heavily GOP) counties. Overall, there was a 2.47% decline (37,000 votes) in Kloppenburg’s vote share from the 25% mark. But there was a 5.0% decline (42,000 votes) in the Top 10 counties in which 56% of the votes were cast. Kloppenburg gained nearly 9,000 votes in the 52 smallest counties, a confirmation that they were effectively ignored by the GOP.
In Milwaukee County, Kloppenburg’s vote share dropped 25,000 votes from 67.5% at the 25% mark to 56.4% at the final – a nearly 50,000 decrease in margin. In the TVM, Kloppenburg had 63.3% in Milwaukee.
In Waukesha County, Kloppenburg’s vote share dropped 3,400 votes from 28.9% at the 25% mark to 25.2% at the final – a nearly 6,800 decrease in margin and close to the magical Waukesha vote adjustment which gave the election to Prosser.
Note that the declines (discrepancies) may actually be greater than above as they reflect changes from the 25% CVS mark – not from the start to the 25% count.
The results confirm previous counter-intuitive findings that Republicans consistently gain share in the most populated counties where precincts/wards are usually heavily Democratic. There were virtually no vote share changes in small, heavily Republican rural counties. In fact, Democrats and Independents often gain vote share from the 25% mark in these counties. Kloppenburg lost 46,000 votes from the 25% mark in the largest 20 counties. She lost share in 15 of the largest 18 counties, but gained share in 37 of the smallest 54. She actually gained 7,000 votes in the smaller 52 counties. She lost 40,000 votes in Democratic counties in which she led at the 25% mark, but gained 1,000 votes in (Republican) counties in which she had less than 50%.
As in recent WI Governor elections, vote share declines were highest in Milwaukee (11%, 25000 vote loss), Racine (15%, 7600), Waukesha (2.7%, 3300), Kenosha (10.3%, 3100) and Winnebago (5.6%, 2100).
This graph shows Kloppenburg’s cumulative vote loss trend from the largest 20 counties Note the downward trend reversal at the one million vote mark. Kloppenburg actually gained share in the smallest 52 counties.
Once again, the evidence shows that Republicans steal elections in big urban counties that are strongly Democratic and ignore small rural counties where they are dominant.
Kloppenburg CVS by County Group Size
Counties Votes Final...25%...Change Votes
All 1,498,880 49.70% 52.17% -2.47% -36,995
.1-10 840,510 51.13% 56.15% -5.02% -42,224
11-20 262,200 45.28% 46.60% -1.32%. -3,459
21-30 148,615 50.10% 47.15%. 2.95%.. 4,381
31-40. 94,724 48.54% 46.69%. 1.85%.. 1,749
41-50. 68,722 49.78% 48.85%. 0.93%.....638
51-72. 80,835 51.86% 49.48%. 2.38%...1,926
To appreciate the vote changes, think of the starting 10,000 votes as a poll with a 1% margin of error. Move the cursor over the CVS trend line to view the exact vote count and share.
Milwaukee County Steady 17% decline from 74% at 25,000 to 57% at the final 228,000.
Brown After leading at 10,000 votes, Kloppenburg’s share declines to 45% at the final 61,000.
Kenosha Steady, massive decline from 65% at 3,000 votes to 53% at the final 31,000.
Racine Strange decline from 60% at 10,000 votes to 45% at the final 51,000.
St. Croix Coincident shares all the way to the final 16,000. Was St. Croix legit?
Waukesha The biggest GOP stronghold, but is it this strong? Kloppenburg gained shares in smaller GOP counties, but not in Waukesha where her share declined from 32% at 10,000 votes to 26% at the final 125,000.
Winnebago Decline from 55% at 5,000 votes to 48% at the final 40,000.