2016 Election Scenario Analysis

Richard Charnin
Nov. 23, 2016

7 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

This is an analysis of four election scenarios. 

1. Gallup Party-ID and True Vote Model (TVM) vote shares
2. Gallup Party-ID and National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares
3. NEP Party-ID and NEP vote shares
4. NEP Party-ID and TVM vote shares

It is a FACT: the Reported vote is NEVER equal to the True Vote. The pundits always brainwash the public into assuming that the Reported vote represents True voter intent. 

The National Exit Poll is always forced to match the Reported vote  (view Scenario 3).
NEP Party-ID is 36D-33R-31I.
Clinton leads Trump by 2.03 million votes: 47.7-46.2%.
Others (including Johnson and Stein) have just 6.1% combined. Stein has 1%.

The True Vote Model (Scenario 1) uses Gallup Party-ID: 40I-32D-28R.
Trump leads Clinton by 2.18 million votes: 45.7-44.0%.  How many of the Other 10.3% voted for Jill Stein? Surely more than 1%. Probably close to 5%.

It is clear that the third party vote is a key factor. Jill Stein had an implausibly low 1% share. Where did her votes go?  Compare Trump’s 2.18 million True Vote margin in Scenario 1, in which third parties had 10.3%, to his negative margins in scenarios 2 and 3 where third parties had 6-7%. The differential  indicates that Stein did better than 1%. Her votes were stolen.

Exit poll discrepancies: http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

 True Vote Sensitivity Analysis: Calculate Trump’s vote margins over a range of his shares of Republicans and Independents.

1. True Vote Model	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Other
Dem	32%	89%	9%	2%
Rep	28%	7%	90%	3%
Ind	40%	34%	44%	22%
TVM Total	100%	44.0%	45.7%	10.3%
Votes (mil)	133.26	58.69	60.87	13.70
2. Gallup/NEP	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Other
Dem	32%	89%	8%	3%
Rep	28%	8%	88%	4%
Ind	40%	42%	46%	12%
Total	100%	47.5%	45.6%	6.9%
Votes (mil)	133.26	63.33	60.77	9.17
3. NEP/NEP	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Other
Dem	36%	89%	8%	3%
Rep	33%	8%	88%	4%
Ind	31%	42%	46%	12%
Total	100%	47.7%	46.2%	6.1%
Votes (mil)	133.26	63.57	61.54	8.16
4. NEP/TVM	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Other
Dem	36%	89%	9%	2%
Rep	33%	7%	90%	3%
Ind	31%	34%	44%	22%
Total	100%	44.9%	46.6%	8.5%
Votes (mil)	133.26	59.82	62.07	11.37

True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis

Scenario 1		Trump	% Rep
Trump	85.0%	87.0%	89.0%	91.0%	93.0%
% Ind			Trump
48%	46.2%	46.7%	47.3%	47.8%	48.4%
44%	44.6%	45.1%	45.7%	46.2%	46.8%
40%	43.0%	43.5%	44.1%	44.6%	45.2%
			Clinton
48%	43.6%	43.0%	42.4%	41.9%	41.3%
44%	45.2%	44.6%	44.0%	43.5%	42.9%
40%	46.8%	46.2%	45.6%	45.1%	44.5%
		Share	Margin
48%	2.6%	3.7%	4.8%	6.0%	7.1%
44%	-0.6%	0.5%	1.6%	2.8%	3.9%
40%	-3.8%	-2.7%	-1.6%	-0.4%	0.7%
		Vote (000)	Margin
48%	3.5	5.0	6.4	7.9	9.4
44%	-0.8	0.7	2.2	3.7	5.2
40%	-5.1	-3.6	-2.1	-0.6	0.9

Vote Share	Unadj EP		Reported		True Vote
	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Avg	48.39%	45.80%	46.14%	49.65%	44.71%	48.43%
Diff		-2.59%		3.51%		3.71%
OH	47.0%	47.1%	43.5%	52.1%	43.9%	51.4%
NC *	48.6%	46.5%	46.7%	50.5%	45.9%	46.6%
NJ	59.8%	35.8%	55.0%	41.8%	44.6%	46.4%
PA *	50.5%	46.1%	47.7%	48.8%	47.8%	45.8%
MI	46.8%	46.8%	47.5%	47.7%	45.3%	47.8%
MO	42.8%	51.2%	38.0%	57.1%	41.5%	51.7%
IA	44.1%	48.0%	42.2%	51.8%	41.1%	50.6%
FL *	47.7%	46.4%	47.8%	49.1%	45.9%	47.7%
WI *	48.2%	44.3%	46.9%	47.9%	46.5%	48.0%
Share of	Unadj EP		Reported		True Vote
Indep.	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Avg	47.33%	40.30%	39.17%	53.09%	35.89%	50.56%
Diff		-7.03%		13.92%		14.67%
OH	50.0%	34.0%	38.0%	52.0%	38.0%	52.0%
NC	44.0%	44.0%	38.5%	56.0%	35.0%	49.0%
NJ	67.0%	28.0%	51.0%	48.0%	36.0%	52.0%
PA	50.0%	43.0%	36.0%	56.0%	32.0%	53.0%
MI	32.0%	52.7%	35.0%	56.3%	35.0%	51.0%
MO	45.0%	40.0%	28.0%	62.0%	39.0%	45.0%
IA	42.0%	41.0%	35.0%	51.0%	35.0%	51.0%
FL	48.0%	43.0%	48.0%	50.5%	32.0%	53.0%
WI	48.0%	37.0%	43.0%	46.0%	41.0%	49.0%

 

The 2016 Election Fraud Quiz

Richard Charnin
Updated: Nov. 23, 2016

7 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

2016 Election Model (EM)

True or False

1 The Democrats stole the primary from Bernie
2 The GOP primary was virtually fraud-free
3 Plausible: Clinton would try to steal the presidential election
4 Implausible: Clinton’s CA margin is 5.8% higher than Obama in 2012
5 Voters were disenfranchised in the primaries

6 Millions of voters were disenfranchised in the election
7 Millions of illegals voted (see Link1, Link2)
8 The Reported Vote is never equal to the True Vote due to Election Fraud
9 The MSM is for Hillary although she is under criminal investigation
10 Bernie’s crowds were nearly 100X larger than Clinton

11 Trump’s crowds were nearly 100X larger than Clinton
12 Exit pollster Edison Research works for the National Election Pool
13 Unadjusted exit polls proved election fraud since 1988
14 The MSM covered up 2000, 2004 elections and 2016 primary fraud
15 The MSM disparaged exit polls as conspiracy theory- until 2016

16 Corporate media pollsters rigged the pre-election polls for HRC
17 Corporate Media pollsters may have rigged the exit polls for HRC
18 The MSM never mentions the “third rail”: rigged voting machines
19 The MSM has focused strictly on voter disenfranchisement
20 Party ID (9 pre-election polls): 29 Ind, 39 Dem, 32 Rep ( Election  Model)

21 Party ID National Exit Poll: 31 Ind, 36 Dem, 33 Rep
22 Party ID  Gallup voter affiliation survey: 40 Ind, 32 Dem, 28 Rep 
23 Trump led Independents in 9 pre-election polls: 44-34% (Election Model)
24 Trump leads Independents in the National Exit Poll by just 46-42%
25  Fraction Magic  used to flip votes on central tabulators

26 Virtually all reported DRE vote flipping was Trump to HRC
27 The DNC not calling for a FULL audit indicates Trump won 
28 Jill Stein must have exceeded 1% of the national vote

 

Implausible: NY Unadjusted exit poll

Richard Charnin
Nov. 19, 2016

7 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Reversal of Fortune:Trump did better in the exit poll than the recorded vote.
But he did even better in the True Vote Model

WHERE DID JILL STEIN’S VOTES GO?

NY 2012 Recorded Vote
Obama defeated Romney by 1.97 million (4.472-2.495) votes: 63.3-35.2% (28.1% margin)

NY 2016 CNN Reported (95% in)
Clinton leads Trump by 1.47 million votes: 58.9-37.4% (21.5% margin)
Party-ID:  48D- 26R- 26I
Clinton leads Independents by 48-42%

NY 2016 Unadjusted Exit Poll
Clinton leads Trump by 1.10 million votes: 55.8-39.8% (16.0% margin)
Party-ID:  48D- 26R- 26I
Trump leads Independents by 51-36%

NY 2016 True Vote Model
Clinton leads Trump by 798,000 votes: 50.7-42.0% (8.7% margin)
Party-ID:  39D- 19R- 42I
Trump leads Independents by 53-31%

NY 2016 Vote and Exit poll data (CNN)
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/new-york

Go to Row 490
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1141167047

Updated: 2016-Presidential-Election-Table_Nov-17.-2016.jpg

NY Unadjusted Exit Poll	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
Dem	48%	92%	7%	1%
Rep	26%	9%	89%	2%
Ind	26%	36%	51%	13%
Calc	100%	55.9%	39.8%	4.4%
Unadjusted	100%	55.8%	39.8%	4.4%
Votes (000)	6,883	3,841	2,739	303
		Margin	-1,101	-16.0%
95% reported
Reported	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
Dem	48%	92%	7%	1%
Rep	26%	9%	89%	2%
Ind	26%	48%	42%	10%
Calc	100%	59.0%	37.4%	3.6%
Reported	100%	58.9%	37.4%	3.7%
Votes (000)	6,883	4,051	2,577	255
		Margin	-1,474	-21.41%
True Vote	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
Dem	39.0%	92%	7%	1%
Rep	19.0%	9%	89%	2%
Ind	42.0%	31%	53%	16%
Calc	100.0%	50.6%	41.9%	7.5%
TVM before UVA	94.3%	49.3%	37.7%	7.3%
True Vote	100.0%	50.7%	42.0%	7.3%
Votes (000)	6,883	3,393	2,595	502
		Margin	-798	-8.8%

 

Implausible: California Exit Poll and Reported Vote

Richard Charnin
Nov. 19, 2016

7 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

How did Clinton exceed Obama’s 2012 vote margin?

Somethings happening here.
What it is ain’t exactly clear.

WHERE DID JILL STEIN’S VOTES GO?

2012 Recorded Vote
Obama defeated Romney by 3.0 million votes: 60.2-37.1% (23.1% margin)
Party-ID: 43.3D -28.1R -28.6I

2016 (83% reported)
Clinton leads Trump by 3.4 million: 61.6-32.7% (28.9% margin)
Exit Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 3.7 million: 60.0-31.5% (28.5% margin)
Party-ID: 47D- 23R- 30I
Clinton leads Independents by 50-37%

2016  CA True Vote Model
Clinton leads Trump by 565,000 votes: 45.7-40.9% (4.8% margin)
Party-ID:  34.2D- 22.3R- 43.5I
Trump leads Independents by 47-26%

California Vote and Exit poll (CNN)
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/california

Go to Row 460
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1141167047

 

CALIFORNIA

Unadjusted EP	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein	Other
Dem	47%	92%	5%	1%	1%	1%
Rep	23%	13%	84%	2%	1%	0%
Ind	30%	50%	37%	7%	5%	1%
Calc	100%	61.2%	32.8%	3.0%	2.2%	1%
Unadjusted	100%	60.0%	31.5%	2.0%	1.3%	5%
Votes (000)	11,775	7,065	3,709	236	153	612
		Margin	-3,356	-28.5%
83% reported
Reported	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein	Other
Dem	47%	92%	5%	1%	1%	1%
Rep	23%	13%	84%	2%	1%	0%
Ind	30%	50%	37%	7%	5%	1%
Calc	100%	61.2%	32.8%	3.0%	2.2%	1%
Reported	100%	60.46%	33.25%	2.20%	0.70%	3.39%
Votes (000)	11,775	7,231	3,841	394	216	93
		Margin	-3,390	-27.21%
True Vote	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein	Other
Dem	34.2%	92%	5%	1%	1%	1%
Rep	22.3%	13%	84%	2%	1%	0%
Ind	43.5%	26%	47%	7%	5%	15%
Calc	100.0%	45.7%	40.9%	3.8%	2.7%	7%
True Vote	100.0%	45.7%	40.9%	3.8%	2.7%	6.9%
Votes (000)	11,775	5,378	4,814	451	323	809
		Margin	-564	-4.8%

 

Implausible: the PA Unadjusted Exit Poll

Richard Charnin
Nov. 18, 2016

7 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Trump won the PA recorded vote (party-id) by 48.8-47.7%.
Trump won the PA recorded vote (gender) by  49.1-48.0% (2:56 pm Nov.15).
Clinton won the PA exit poll  by 50.5-46.1%

PA Recorded Vote
Trump wins: 48.8-47.7% (68,000 vote margin)
Trump won Independents: 56.6-33.5%
Party ID: 41.5D- 38.5 R- 20I

PA Unadjusted exit poll
Clinton wins: 50.5-46.1% (262,000 vote margin)
Clinton won Independents: 50-43%  (implausible)
Party ID: 41.5D- 38.5R- 20I

PA True Vote Model
Trump wins 48.6-47.7% (54,000 vote margin)
Trump wins Independents: 62-32%
Party ID: 39.1D -29.2R -31.7I

CNN National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
Clinton wins 47.8-47.4%
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I

National True Vote Model 
Gallup Party-ID:  32D- 28R- 40I (8% Party ID  advantage to Independents)

Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)
Trump wins the popular vote: 44.4-42.9% (1.6 million vote margin)
Trump wins the recorded Electoral vote: 306-232

True Vote: After Undecided Voter Allocation
Trump wins  48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the  Electoral Vote: 351-187

 

Election Model: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1141167047

Gender Vote	Clinton	Trump
Avg	45.90%	49.65%
Diff		3.75%
OH	42.89%	52.11%
NC *	46.64%	50.06%
NJ	54.64%	41.88%
PA *	47.95%	49.05%
MI	47.24%	47.28%
MO	37.83%	57.23%
IA	42.54%	51.99%
FL *	46.71%	48.82%
WI *	46.63%	48.39%

SUMMARY COMPARISON (based on Party-ID)

	Unadj		Reported		True Vote
Vote	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Avg	48.39%	45.80%	46.15%	49.65%	46.47%	49.65%
Diff		-2.59%		3.51%		3.18%
OH	47.0%	47.1%	43.5%	52.1%	43.9%	51.1%
NC *	48.6%	46.5%	46.7%	50.5%	46.6%	50.5%
NJ	59.8%	35.8%	55.0%	41.8%	50.7%	46.4%
PA *	50.5%	46.1%	47.7%	48.8%	47.7%	48.6%
MI	46.8%	46.8%	47.5%	47.8%	47.5%	47.8%
MO	42.8%	51.2%	38.0%	57.1%	47.2%	56.8%
IA	44.1%	48.0%	42.2%	51.8%	42.4%	50.2%
FL *	47.7%	46.4%	47.8%	49.1%	45.9%	47.7%
WI *	48.2%	44.3%	46.9%	47.9%	46.5%	48.0%
	Unadj		Reported		True Vote
%Ind	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Avg	47.33%	40.30%	38.61%	52.67%	35.00%	55.23%
Diff		-7.03%		15.06%		20.23%
OH	50.0%	34.0%	38.0%	52.0%	38.0%	51.0%
NC	44.0%	44.0%	38.5%	56.0%	36.5%	58.5%
NJ	67.0%	28.0%	51.0%	48.0%	46.0%	52.0%
PA	50.0%	43.0%	36.0%	56.0%	32.0%	62.0%
MI	32.0%	52.7%	35.0%	56.0%	33.5%	56.6%
MO	45.0%	40.0%	28.0%	62.0%	30.0%	60.0%
IA	42.0%	41.0%	35.0%	51.0%	35.0%	51.0%
FL	48.0%	43.0%	43.0%	47.0%	32.0%	53.0%
WI	48.0%	37.0%	40.0%	50.0%	32.0%	53.0%

Pennsylvania

Unadj EP	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
Dem	41.5%	90%	6%	1%	3%
Rep	38.5%	8%	91%	1%	0%
Ind	20.0%	50%	43%	3%	3%
Calc	100%	50.4%	46.1%	1.4%	1.8%
Unadjusted	100%	50.5%	46.1%	1.8%	1.6%
Votes (000)	5,950	3,005	2,743	107	95
		Margin	-262
		Margin	-4.4%
Reported	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
Dem	41.5%	90%	6%	1%	3%
Rep	38.5%	8%	91%	1%	0%
Ind	20.0%	36%	56%	5%	3%
Calc	100.0%	47.63%	48.73%	1.80%	1.85%
Reported	100.0%	47.65%	48.79%	1.90%	1.66%
Votes (000)	5,950	2,835	2,903	113	99
		Margin	68
		Margin	1.1%
True Vote Model	Adjusted	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
Dem	39.1%	90%	6%	1%	3%
Rep	29.2%	8%	91%	1%	0%
Ind	31.7%	32%	62%	4%	2%
True Vote	100.0%	47.7%	48.6%	2.0%	1.8%
Votes (000)	5,950	2,836	2,890	116	108
		Margin	54

 

Implausible: the WI Unadjusted Exit Poll

Richard Charnin
Nov. 16, 2016

7 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Trump won four key battleground states (FL, NC, PA, WI). Unadjusted exit polls indicate that Clinton won all four and had 302 EV. But statistical analysis indicates Trump very likely won the four states.

View the summary tables for 9 Battleground states below.

Clinton won the WI unadjusted exit poll  by 48.2-44.3%
Trump won the reported vote (party-ID) by 47.9-46.9%.
Trump won the reported vote (gender) by 48.4-46.6%.
The  CNN adjusted exit poll calculation did not exactly match the reported vote.

WI Reported Vote (CNN)
Trump wins: 47.9-46.9% (27,000 vote margin)
Calculated: Trump wins: 48.1-46.1%
Trump won Independents: 50-40%
Party ID: 35D- 34R- 30I

WI Unadjusted exit poll
Clinton wins: 48.2-44.3% (118,000 vote margin)
Clinton won Independents: 48-37%  (implausible)
Party ID: 35D- 34R- 30I

WI True Vote Model 
Trump wins 48.0-46.5% (45,000 vote margin)
Trump wins Independents: 49-41%
Party ID: 33.9D -32.6R -33.5I (derived from Gallup)

CNN National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
Clinton wins 47.8-47.4%
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I

True Vote Model
Gallup Party-ID:  32D- 28R- 40I (8% Party ID  advantage to Independents)
Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)
Trump wins the popular vote: 44.4-42.9% (1.6 million vote margin)
Trump wins the recorded Electoral vote: 306-232

True Vote: After Undecided Voter Allocation
Trump wins  48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the  Electoral Vote: 351-187

Unadjusted Exit Polls: http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

View Row 380: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1141167047

 CNN Final Exit Poll

SUMMARY COMPARISON (based on Party-ID)

	Unadj		Reported		True Vote
Vote	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Avg	48.39%	45.80%	46.14%	49.65%	44.71%	48.43%
Diff		-2.59%		3.51%		3.71%
OH	47.0%	47.1%	43.5%	52.1%	43.9%	51.4%
NC *	48.6%	46.5%	46.7%	50.5%	45.9%	46.6%
NJ	59.8%	35.8%	55.0%	41.8%	44.6%	46.4%
PA *	50.5%	46.1%	47.7%	48.8%	47.8%	45.8%
MI	46.8%	46.8%	47.5%	47.7%	45.3%	47.8%
MO	42.8%	51.2%	38.0%	57.1%	41.5%	51.7%
IA	44.1%	48.0%	42.2%	51.8%	41.1%	50.6%
FL *	47.7%	46.4%	47.8%	49.1%	45.9%	47.7%
WI *	48.2%	44.3%	46.9%	47.9%	46.5%	48.0%
% Share of Ind	Unadj		Reported		True Vote
	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Avg	47.33%	40.30%	39.17%	53.09%	37.00%	51.14%
Diff		-7.03%		13.92%		14.14%
OH	50.0%	34.0%	38.0%	52.0%	38.0%	52.0%
NC	44.0%	44.0%	38.5%	56.0%	35.0%	49.0%
NJ	67.0%	28.0%	51.0%	48.0%	36.0%	52.0%
PA	50.0%	43.0%	36.0%	56.0%	32.0%	53.0%
MI	32.0%	52.7%	35.0%	56.3%	45.0%	56.3%
MO	45.0%	40.0%	28.0%	62.0%	39.0%	45.0%
IA	42.0%	41.0%	35.0%	51.0%	35.0%	51.0%
FL	48.0%	43.0%	48.0%	50.5%	32.0%	53.0%
WI	48.0%	37.0%	43.0%	46.0%	41.0%	49.0%

 

 

WISCONSIN

Unadj EP	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein	Other
Dem	35%	91%	7%	1%	1%	0%
Rep	34%	6%	90%	3%	0%	1%
Ind	30%	48%	37%	6%	2%	7%
Calc	100%	48.3%	44.2%	3.2%	1.0%	3%
Unadj	100%	48.2%	44.3%	2.0%	1.3%	4%
Votes (000)	3,021	1,456	1,338	660	39	127
		Margin	-118	-3.9%
Reported	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein	Other
Dem	35%	91%	7%	1%	1%	0%
Rep	34%	6%	90%	3%	0%	1%
Ind	30%	40%	50%	6%	2%	2%
Calc	100%	45.9%	48.1%	3.2%	1.0%	2%
Reported	100%	46.9%	47.9%	2.2%	0.7%	2.3%
Votes (000)	3,021	1,382	1,409	106	31	214
		Margin	27	0.93%
True Vote	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein	Other
Dem	33.9%	91%	7%	1%	1%	0%
Rep	32.6%	6%	90%	3%	0%	1%
Ind	33.5%	41%	49%	6%	2%	2%
TVM bef UVA	96.2%	45.5%	45.1%	3.7%	1.9%
True Vote	100.0%	46.5%	48.0%	3.7%	1.9%
Votes (000)	3,021	1,403	1,449	112	57
		Margin	46	1.5%

 

Implausible: the FL Unadjusted Exit Poll

Richard Charnin
Nov. 16, 2016

7 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

JILL STEIN HAD JUST 1% NATIONALLY? WHERE DID HER VOTES GO? ONE GUESS.

Trump won four key battleground states (FL, NC, PA, WI).
But unadjusted exit polls indicate that Clinton won all four and had 302 EV.

Statistical analysis indicates that Trump very likely won all four states.
View the two summary tables of 8 Battleground states below.

Florida
Clinton won the FL unadjusted exit poll  by 47.7-46.4%
Trump won the recorded vote by 47.87-46.94%.
It is a small 1.3% discrepancy – but FL has 29 EV.
But let’s take a closer look

The  CNN adjusted exit poll calculation did not exactly match the Reported vote.
Reported: Trump wins: 49.1-47.8% (122,000 vote margin)
Calculated: Trump wins: 48.93-46.06% (269,000 vote margin)
Trump won Independents: 50-43%
Party ID: 32D- 33 R- 34I

FL Unadjusted exit poll
Clinton wins: 47.7-46.4% (122,000 vote margin – exact opposite of the reported vote)
Clinton won Independents: 48-43%  (implausible)
Party ID: 32D- 33R- 34I

FL True Vote Model (no change to vote shares)
Trump wins 47.7-45.9% (167,000 vote margin)
Trump wins Independents: 53-32%
Party ID: 37.0D -31.7R -31.3I (derived from Gallup)

CNN National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
Clinton wins 47.8-47.4%
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I

True Vote Model
Gallup Party-ID:  32D- 28R- 40I (8% Party ID  advantage to Independents)
Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)
Trump wins the popular vote: 44.4-42.9% (1.6 million vote margin)
Trump wins the recorded Electoral vote: 306-232

True Vote: After Undecided Voter Allocation
Trump wins  48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the  Electoral Vote: 351-187

Unadjusted Exit Polls: http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

Florida: view Row 350 in https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1141167047

Unadj EP	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein	Other
Dem	32%	90%	8%	0%	1%	1%
Rep	33%	8%	89%	1%	1%	1%
Ind	34%	48%	43%	5%	2%	2%
Match	100%	47.8%	46.6%	2.0%	1.3%	2%
Unadjusted	100%	47.7%	46.4%	2.0%	1.3%	3%
Votes (000)	9,362	4,466	4,344	187	122	243
		Margin	-122	-1.3%
Reported	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein	Other
Dem	32%	90%	8%	0%	1%	1%
Rep	33%	8%	89%	1%	1%	1%
Ind	34%	43%	50%	5%	2%	0%
Match	100%	46.06%	48.93%	2.0%	1.3%	2%
Reported	100%	47.80%	49.10%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%
Votes (000)	9,362	4,475	4,597	206	66	19
		Margin	122	2.9%
True Vote	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein	Other
Dem	37.0%	90%	8%	0%	1%	1%
Rep	31.7%	8%	89%	1%	1%	1%
Ind	31.3%	32%	53%	5%	3%	7%
Match True		45.85%	47.76%	1.9%	1.6%	3%
TVM bef UVA	95%	44.7%	44.2%	4.2%	2.3%
True Vote	100.0%	45.9%	47.7%	4.2%	2.3%
Votes (000)	9,362	4,296	4,462	393	211
		Margin	167	-0.6%

Summary Tables

	Unad Exit Poll		Reported		True Vote
Vote	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Average	48.56%	45.64%	46.48%	49.35%	46.84%	49.47%
Diff		-2.92%		2.87%		2.63%
NC *	48.6%	46.5%	46.7%	50.5%	46.6%	50.5%
NJ	59.8%	35.8%	55.0%	41.8%	50.7%	46.4%
PA *	50.5%	46.1%	47.7%	48.8%	47.7%	48.6%
MI	46.8%	46.8%	47.5%	47.8%	47.9%	47.7%
MO	42.8%	51.2%	38.0%	57.1%	47.2%	56.8%
IA	44.1%	48.0%	42.2%	51.8%	42.4%	50.2%
FL *	47.7%	46.4%	47.8%	49.1%	45.9%	47.7%
WI *	48.2%	44.3%	46.9%	47.9%	46.5%	48.0%
	Unadj Exit Poll		Reported		True Vote
% Indep	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Average	46.75%	41.34%	38.13%	53.66%	35.63%	55.35%
Diff		-5.41%		15.54%		19.73%
NC	44.0%	44.0%	38.5%	56.0%	36.5%	58.5%
NJ	67.0%	28.0%	51.0%	48.0%	46.0%	52.0%
PA	49.0%	45.0%	36.0%	56.0%	32.0%	62.0%
MI	31.0%	52.7%	33.5%	56.3%	33.5%	56.3%
MO	45.0%	40.0%	28.0%	62.0%	30.0%	60.0%
IA	42.0%	41.0%	35.0%	51.0%	35.0%	51.0%
FL	48.0%	43.0%	43.0%	50.0%	32.0%	53.0%
WI	48.0%	37.0%	40.0%	50.0%	40.0%	50.0%