Did CBS and CNN low-ball Trump’s Democratic SOTU viewers and approval?

Richard Charnin
Feb 7, 2019

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Did CBS and CNN low-ball Trump’s Democratic SOTU viewers and approval?

According to CBS and CNN, 76% of  viewers approved of Trump’s SOTU. But the percentage of Democratic viewers was very low considering that CBS and CNN viewers are heavily Democratic.  Trump must have done much better among Democratic viewers than indicated in each poll and may have had over 80% total approval.

On CBS, Republican viewers (44%) outnumbered Democrats (25%) and Independents (31%) with 30% of Dems approving, 97% of Repubs and 82% of Independents. One would expect that CBS viewers would be overwhelmingly Democrats.

Assume CBS viewers were Dem 60%, Rep 20%, Ind 20%. Then to match Trump’s total 76% approval, estimated Dem approval is 66%, Rep 97%, Ind 86%.  This is plausible.

Assume CBS viewers represented Gallup national voter affiliation (34% Dem, 25% Rep, 41% Ind). Then to match Trump’s 76% approval, estimated Dem approval is 56%, Rep 97%, Ind 80%.

On CNN, Dem approval is 36%, Rep 87%, Ind 57%. Then to match 76% Trump approval, CNN viewers must have been: Dem 15%, Rep 75%, Ind 10%. This is not plausible.

Assume CNN viewers were Dem 45%, Rep 30%, Ind 25% with  Dem approval 66%, Rep 97%, Ind 87%. Then Trump had 81% total approval. This is plausible.

CBS poll Pct Approv
Dem………25% 30% < NOT PLAUSIBLE. Only 25% Dem viewers?
Rep……….44% 97%
Ind………..31% 82%
Total…….100% 76%

CBS1……. Pct Approv
Dem……. 60% 66% < 60% Dem is plausible
Rep……… 20% 97%
Ind………. 20% 86%
Total…….100% 76%

CBS2……. Pct Approv
Dem……. 60% 75% < 60% Dem is plausible
Rep……… 20% 97%
Ind………. 20% 86%
Total…….100% 82%   TRUMP 82% TOTAL APPROVAL

Gallup……Pct Approv
Dem………34% 56%
Rep……….25% 97%
Ind………..41% 80%
Total…….100% 76%

CNN poll.. Pct Approv
Dem………15% 36% < NOT PLAUSIBLE. Only 15% Dem viewers?
Rep………..75% 87%
Ind…………10% 57% Only 10% Ind?
Total…….100% 76%

CNN1….. Pct Approv
Dem……. 30% 60% < only 30% Dem viewers?
Rep…….. 30% 87%
Ind……… 40% 80%
Total…….100% 76%

CNN2….. Pct Approv
Dem……. 45% 66% <plausible
Rep…….. 30% 97%
Ind……… 25% 87%
Total…….100% 81%  TRUMP 81% TOTAL APPROVAL

https://www.vox.com/2019/2/6/18213682/state-of-the-union-approval-ratings-polls

 

2018 House Election: Dems needed a 5.6% popular vote margin to win the House

Richard Charnin
Jan. 20, 2019

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Nate Silver calculated that the Dems needed a 5.6% popular vote margin to win the House (218-217). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

The Dems won by 8% (53.1-45.1%, 8.9 million recorded votes) a 235-200 seat margin. 

But the Dems won 32 of 38 tossups- a 1 in 100,000 probability, an indicator of fraud. Thirty-three of the 38 tossups were held by Repubs. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/11/11/2018-house-probability-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Rasmussen was the only pollster to project a Repub win: 46-45%.  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

The National Generic Exit Poll was forced to closely match the recorded vote. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=210218497

2018 NEP	Party ID	Republicans	Democrats	Other
Republicans	33%	94%	6%	0
Democrats	37%	4%	95%	1%
Independents	30%	42%	54%	4%
Calc share	100%	45.10%	53.33%	1.57%
Calc vote	111,478,885	50,276,977	59,451,689	1,750,218
Popular vote	111,835,736	50,449,312	59,379,804	2,006,620
Popular share	100%	45.10%	53.10%	1.80%
	House	201	234

Assuming Silver’s analysis,  a Dem popular vote margin under 5.6% would result in the Repubs winning the House. For example, if the Repubs had 47% of Independents, keeping other NEP percentages constant, the  Dems would have a 51.8-46.6% win (5.2% margin, 5.6 million votes) but the Repubs would win the House.

Generic	Party-ID	Rep	Dem	Other
Rep	33%	94%	6%	0%
Dem	37%	4%	95%	1%
Ind	30%	47%	49%	4%
	Share	46.60%	51.83%	1.57%
	Votes	51,408	57,177	1,732

A 1% gain/loss in margin results in a gain/loss of approximately 7 seats =17/2.6. (17=235-218; 2.6= 8.2-5.6)

Dem Margin	Dem Seats
8.23%	235
7.36%	230
6.49%	225
5.63%	218
4.78%	215
3.93%	210
3.09%	205

 

 

 

AZ Senate vs Governor: a major discrepancy

Richard Charnin

Nov. 26, 2018

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AZ Senate vs Governor: a major discrepancy

Republican Governor Ducey won by 337,000 votes. Democrat Senator Sinema won by 56,000 votes.

McSally (R) led in early voting by 475k-365k (56.5-43.5%). Sinema needed 826k (55.6%) of 1486k votes on Election Day to match her 50.6% share.

In Maricopa County (Phoenix), McSally led in early voting by 302k-216k (58.3-41.7%) but Sinema won the county 659k-611k (51.9-48.1%) – a 134k vote(12.8%) decline from McSally’s early margin.

Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote. The recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote. Check Party ID and the vote shares

Did McSally win the True Vote? I smell a rat.

National Exit Poll https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/national-results Dems win 53.3-45.1% (9.2 million votes)

Gov Exit Poll -Party ID https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona Ducey (R) wins by 337,000 votes

Senate Exit Poll -Party ID https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate Sinema (D) wins by 56,000 votes

True Vote estimate 1 Turnout based on voter registration and plausible vote shares. McSally wins by 65,000 votes.

True Vote estimate 2 Turnout based on Exit Poll Party ID and plausible vote shares. McSally wins by 130,000 votes.

Sensitivity Analysis McSally vote share, margins and win probability scenarios.

Early ballots GOP led by 475,000-365,000 votes (53.3-44.5%). Sinema needed 826,000 (55.6%) of 1,486,000 Election Day ballots to match the recorded vote.

NEP	Party ID	Democrats	Republicans	Other
Dem	37%	95%	4%	1%
Rep	33%	6%	94%	0
Ind	30%	54%	42%	4%
Total	100%	53.3%	45.1%	1.6%
	111,478	59,451	50,276	1,750

AZ Gov	Party ID	Garcia	Ducey	Other
Dem	31%	85%	14%	1%
Rep	38%	5%	95%	N/A
Ind	31%	45%	52%	3%
Match	100.0%	42.2%	56.6%	1.2%
Vote	2354	994	1331	29.18
	100.0%	41.8%	56.0%	2.2%
		Margin	337

Recorded	Reg	Sinema	McSally	Other
Dem	31%	97%	3%	0%
Rep	38%	12%	85%	3%
Ind	31%	50%	47%	3%
Total	100.0%	50.1%	47.8%	2.1%
Vote	2366	1186	1131	49
		Margin	-55
Sensitivity		McSally%Dem
McSally%Rep	3%	5%	7%	9%
		Vote Share
90%	49.7%	50.3%	50.9%	51.6%
89%	49.3%	49.9%	50.6%	51.2%
88%	48.9%	49.6%	50.2%	50.8%
87%	48.6%	49.2%	49.8%	50.4%
86%	48.2%	48.8%	49.4%	50.0%
85%	47.8% recorded	48.4%	49.0%	49.7%
		Margin (000)
90%	35	64	93	123
89%	17	46	75	105
88%	-1	28	57	87
87%	-19	10	40	69
86%	-37	-8	22	51
85%	-55 recorded	-26	4	33
		Win Prob
90%	64.3%	78.2%	88.3%	94.5%
89%	54.5%	70.0%	82.6%	91.1%
88%	44.4%	60.7%	75.3%	86.4%
87%	34.7%	50.8%	66.7%	80.1%
86%	26.0%	40.8%	57.1%	72.3%
85%	18.5% recorded	31.4%	47.1%	63.3%

Candidate	Recorded Vote	Pct	Early vote	Chg votes	Eday Votes Required
Sinema	1,191,100	50.6%	365,469	825,631	55.58%
McSally	1,135,200	47.6%	475,372	659,828	44.42%
Green (withdrawn)	57,442	1.8%	256,737	-199,295	-15.50%
Total votes	2,383,741	100.00%	1,097,578	1,286,163	100.00%

 McSally change in share  from early to final vote

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit?fbclid=IwAR0o8HS47QrCZ81HFoEi3WxFDdrMwCQt9SFNK-tgZY-bvWp9sjE8J8Q-2BM#gid=130243910

County	Early share	Final share	Margin Change
Apache	36.3%	32.4%	-6,896
Cochise	58.9%	61.0%	6,808
Coconino	41.5%	36.0%	-12,292
Gila	64.9%	61.5%	1,863
Graham	66.5%	67.1%	2,206
Greenlee	40.7%	57.6%	567
LaPaz	73.6%	66.6%	671
Maricopa	58.3%	48.1%	-134,453
Mohave	74.2%	72.3%	17,831
Navajo	58.3%	53.0%	374
Pima	44.5%	42.4%	-37,720
Pinal	61.6%	56.1%	5,839
Santa Cruz	28.5%	29.3%	-3,466
Yavapai	70.0%	61.9%	10,463
Yuma	58.0%	53.2%	295
Total	56.5%	49.1%	-147,910

County Graph

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTvZppVule4a_07xPErlSU-yVsOC-otyIakWvE9_9CQp5K55Vkqcefjsr0J9_EyRk5TyTWLHTccQeKR/pubchart?oid=672043111&format=interactive

 

17 House races: What if?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 23, 2018

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The Dems led by 203-194 on Election Day. They won 32 of 38 tossups – a 1 in 100,000 probability – and won the House by 235-200.

In the expected 50/50 split of the 38 tossups, the GOP would win 19 races and need just five additional seats to win the House. The math: 218 = 194+19+5.

Consider the 17 House tossups in the table below. The GOP led the 17-poll average by 1%, but the Dems won all 17 elections by 2%. The GOP led in 10 of the 17 tossups by 2.6%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

	Dem Poll	Rep Poll	Margin	WinProb	Dem vote	Rep vote	Margin
Average	45.12	46.08	0.96	60.2%	50.36	48.39	1.98
2-party	49.47	50.53	1.05	–	51.00	49.00	2.00
CA25	44	48	4	85.7%	51.7	48.3	3.4
CA39	48	52	4	83.6%	50.5	49.5	1.0
CA45	46	50	4	84.6%	50.8	49.2	1.6
CA48	44	48	4	85.7%	52.0	48.0	4.0
MI8	45	48	3	78.5%	50.6	46.8	3.8
VA7	44	46	2	70.7%	50.3	48.5	1.8
NM2	44.5	46.3	1.8	68.6%	50.7	49.3	1.4
NJ3	44	45	1	60.8%	49.9	48.8	1.1
NY22	45	46	1	60.6%	50.3	49.7	0.6
TX7	45	46	1	60.6%	52.3	47.7	4.6
FL26	45	44	-1	39.2%	50.9	49.1	1.8
ME2	47	46	-1	39.6%	46.2	45.5	0.7
NC9	45	44	-1	39.2%	49.4	48.8	0.6
NY19	43	42	-1	38.7%	50.2	47.3	2.9
IA3	44.5	43	-1.5	33.7%	49.0	47.5	1.5
CA10	47	45	-2	29.7%	50.9	49.1	1.8
GA6	46	44	-2	29.3%	50.5	49.5	1.0

 

 

Repub California House races too close to call flipped to the Dems

Richard Charnin
Nov. 21, 2018

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The Repubs led by 4% in each of 4 districts which flipped to the Dems. The win probability was 85% in each of the districts (4.0% margin of error).

The Dems led by 203-194 seats on Election Day with 38 tossups. On Nov. 21, the Dems won the House by 235-200, winning 32 of 38 tossups – a 1 in 100,000 probability. An even 19-19 split of the  tossups would have resulted in a 222-213 Dem win. Then the GOP  would need just five additional seats to win the House.

……………….Poll………………Vote
……………Dem Rep ….. Dem Rep Margin
CA10……. 47 45  -2…… 50.9 49.1  -1.8
CA25……. 44 48   4…… 51.7 48.3  -3.4

CA39……. 48 52   4…… 50.5 49.5  -1.0
Cisneros vs. Kim (R) vote change from Election Day to 11/16

CA45……. 46 50   4…… 50.8 49.2  -1.6
CA48……. 44 48   4…… 52.0 48.0  -4.0 Rohrabacher (R) lost after 30 years in Congress

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

The Democrats had 300,000 more votes in Orange County Congressional races than for Democrat governor Gavin Newsom. https://web.archive.org/web/20181119210758/https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/11/voter-fraud-orange-county-numbers-dont-add-up-democrats-had-300000-more-votes-for-congressional-seats-than-for-governor/

Tip of the iceberg?
“Prosecutors have charged nine people with a dozen felony counts for allegedly offering money and cigarettes to homeless people on Skid Row in exchange for false and forged signatures on ballot petitions and voter registration forms, the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office announced today”.

Click to access 112018_Nine_Charged_in_Large_Scale_Voter_Fraud_Scheme_on_Skid_Row.pdf

 

Did the GOP actually win the House?

Did the GOP actually win the House?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 21, 2018

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Let’s speculate given the unlikely trend in tossups and strange anomalies.
. Long-held GOP seats in California flipped (Rohrabacher,etc.)
. Broward & Palm Beach County incompetence and/or fraud.
. Arizona GOP governor won by 328,000 votes but McSally lost the senate by 30,000 after leading in early voting.
. The Dems led by 203-194 seats on Election Day with 38 tossups.  The Dems won the House by 235-200 with 32 of 38 tossups flipping to the Dems, a 1 in 100,000 probability.
. With an expected tossup split of 19 seats each, the Dems would win by 222-213. Is it inconceivable that the GOP may have won at least five more seats and a 218-217 win?
. How many  races which leaned to the Dems in the polls flipped to the GOP?
. The pre-election 38 tossup 2-party poll average (50.50D-49.50R%) exactly matched the recorded tossup vote average (50.52D-49.48R%). Strange.

“Republican congressional candidate Young Kim, who just days ago was poised to be the first Korean-American woman in Congress as she led a closely contested California House race, is accusing her opponent of “harassing and intimidating” vote counters as her lead has disappeared.

Kim is vying to replace retiring Rep. Ed Royce, R-Calif., in California’s 39th District, which includes part of the state’s more Republican Orange County. Last week, she held about a 3-point lead over Democrat Gil Cisneros with about 150,000 votes counted.But since then, that lead vanished, with Cisneros taking a 941-vote as of late Thursday”.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republican-young-kim-loses-lead-in-california-house-race-accuses-opponent-gil-cisneros-of-harassing-vote-counters

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

 

2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2018

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According to Real Clear Politics, there was a 203D-194R split on Election Day. There were 38 tossups. The Dems lead 235-199 with the NC-9 race disputed. The GOP won the race by 50.8-48.6% (4000+ votes) on Sept.10, 2019

The probability that the Dems would win 32 of 37 tossups is
P= 1 in 315,300 = binomdist (32, 37, 0.5, false)

Of the 38 tossups, 33 were  Repub-held. We would normally expect a tossup split of 19 Dems and 19 Repubs which would result in a 222D-213R House.

The Democrats led in 203 (51.1%) of 397 seats. They won 32 (86.4%) of the remaining 37 tossups. 

Of the 15 seats which leaned to the  Dems, 11 were Repub-held. Assuming a 19D-19R tossup split, the Repubs needed 5 of the 15 to win the House (218=194+19+5).

The recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote. There are vote miscounts in every election, especially in close races within the MoE.

Given a 203D-194R split on Election Day, the following  table displays Democrat win probabilities.

X= Dem tossup win	Total Dem seats	Prob (X)	1 in
12	215	1.35%	74.2
13	216	2.59%	38.6
14	217	4.44%	22.5
15	218	6.81%	14.7
16	219	9.37%	10.7
17	220	11.57%	8.6
18	221	12.86%	7.8
19	222	12.86%	7.8
20	223	11.57%	8.6
21	224	9.37%	10.7
22	225	6.81%	14.7
23	226	4.44%	22.5
24	227	2.59%	39
25	228	1.35%	74
26	229	0.62%	161
27	230	0.25%	395
28	231	0.09%	1,105
29	232	0.03%	3,560
30	233	0.01%	13,349
31	234	0.017%	59,119
32	235	0.0003%	315,301

 

2018 MIDTERMS POSTS

AZ Senate vs Governor a major discrepancy
Dems needed a 5.6% popular vote margin to win the House
17 House races: what-if?
Repub CA House races too close to call flipped to Dems
Did the GOP actually win the House?
2018 House probability analysis indicates fraud
GOP House: Red wave?
What is the probability Dems will win the House?
Arizona CBS Senate Poll More Anomalies
Generic vote forecast model vs RCP average (10-29)
Inflated Democratic generic polls indicates Republicans will win the House
GOP wins Texas-SD-19 for first time in-139-years
Florida Governor Polling Analysis
Trump has a higher approval rating than MSM polls
Rasmussen vs. WaPo: Trump approval

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/house/ https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/house/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTvZppVule4a_07xPErlSU-yVsOC-otyIakWvE9_9CQp5K55Vkqcefjsr0J9_EyRk5TyTWLHTccQeKR/pubchart?oid=1371017998&format=interactive

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=1032811684

The MSM, CNN and LA Times admitted the GOP could keep the House in a Red Tsunami
http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/msm-red-tsunami/?fbclid=IwAR0C43VxE9xy7HPybwzd_cIBKdcTjDXh5f-UGB9-zD7icp-aGMIB9DTo_Dk

 

GOP House Forecast: 230R – 205D Red Wave?

Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2018

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

GOP House Forecast: 230R – 205D? It’s possible.
And the GOP should win the Senate by at least 54-46 seats.

According to Real Clear Politics: 32 of 38 House seats that are currently too close to call are Republican. The GOP has 195 safe so they need 23 of 32 GOP seats to win the House with 218, even assuming they lose all 6 Democratic seats that are too close to call.

Assuming the polls are media-biased for the Democrats and the GOP retains all 32 seats, they will have a 227-208 majority. Maybe 230-205 if they pick up 3 Dem seats that are too close to call.

And that is a RED WAVE.

Assuming the 2-party Base Case forecast (50.9R-49.1D), the Repubs will keep the House by approximately 230-205 seats.

Note: The Dems need an approximate 58D-40R% lead in registered voter turnout to match the current RCP Generic Poll average (49.5D-41.9R). This is impossible.

Model Base Case Assumptions (2-party):
1) Latest Gallup % voter affiliation: 27R-28D-45I
2) Reg voter Turnout: 48% of Repub, 46% Dems, 44% Ind
3) Independents: Repubs win 52-48%
4) Equal 92-8% vote shares

Party-ID		Turnout	Repub	Dem
Rep	27%	48%	92%	8%
Dem	28%	46%	8%	92%
Ind	45%	44%	52%	48%
Total	100%	45.6%	50.94%	49.06%
		Votes	36,640	35,286

Turnout				Vote
Rep	Dem	Ind	Total	Rep	Dem
48%	46%	44%	45.6%	50.94%	49.06%
49%	45%	45%	46.1%	51.45%	48.55%
50%	44%	46%	46.5%	51.96%	48.04%
51%	43%	47%	47.0%	52.45%	47.55%
52%	42%	48%	47.4%	52.93%	47.07%
53%	41%	49%	47.8%	53.41%	46.59%

	Generic Poll		RCP Average		House seats
	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep
2016	46	45.4	48	49.1	194	241
2014	43.2	45.6	45.2	51.4	188	247
2012	47.3	47.5	49.2	48	201	234
Average	45.5	46.2	47.5	49.5	194	241

Nate Silver calculates an 85% probability the Dems will win the House – if they win the popular vote by at least 5.7%.

Nate bases his calculation on the latest polls from Real Clear Politics which show the Dems winning 202 seats and the Repubs 196 with 37 too close to call.

As usual, Nate makes the simplistic assumption that the polls accurately reflect voter intent. And as always, he avoids mentioning the fraud factor.

Assuming the Repubs have 196 seats, then the probability P that they will win AT LEAST 22 of 37 races that are too close to call and win 218 seats is 1 in 6.
P= 16.2% = 1-BINOMDIST(21,37,0.5,true).

But…given the latest Gallup voter affiliation survey and assuming equal vote shares below, the Dems would need at least 56% registered voter turnout compared to just 46% for the Repubs to win by 52.86-47.14%. Anything less than a 10% Dem turnout edge means the Repubs would win the House.

So the question Nate must answer is this: is it logical to assume that the Democratic turnout rate would be 10% greater than the Repubs? I don’t think so. If anything, the Repubs are more motivated.

Gallup	Party-ID	Turnout	Votes	Rep	Dem
Rep	27%	46%	19573	92%	8%
Dem	28%	56%	24711	8%	92%
Ind	45%	44%	31204	50%	50%
Total	100%	47.9%	–	47.14%	52.86%
		Votes	75,488	35,586	39,902

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

 

What is the probability the Democrats will win the House?

Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2018

Nate Silver calculates an 85% probability the Dems will win the House – if they win the popular vote by at least 5.7%.

As usual, Nate Silver makes the simplistic assumption that the polls accurately reflect voter intent. And as always, he avoids mentioning the fraud factor.

Nate bases his calculation on the latest polls from Real Clear Politics which shows the Dems winning 202 seats and the Repubs 196 with 37 too close to call.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
Assuming the Repubs have 196 seats, then the probability P that they will win AT LEAST 22 of 37 races that are too close to call and win 218 seats is 1 in 6.
P= 16.2% = 1-BINOMDIST(21,37,0.5,true).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

But…Given the latest Gallup voter affiliation survey and assuming equal vote shares below, the Dems would need at least 56% registered voter turnout compared to just 46% for the Repubs to win by 52.9-47.1%. Anything less than a 10% Dem turnout edge means the Repubs would win the House.

So the question Nate must answer is this: is it logical to assume that the Democratic turnout rate would be 10% greater than the Repubs? I don’t think so. If anything, the Repubs are more motivated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=210218497

Generic Vote
Gallup	Party-ID	Turnout	Votes	Rep	Dem
Rep	27%	46%	19573	92%	8%
Dem	28%	56%	24711	8%	92%
Ind	45%	44%	31204	50%	50%
Total	100%		47.9%	47.14%	52.86%
		Votes	75,488	35,586	39,902
Turnout scenarios
Rep	Dem	Ind	Total	Rep	Dem
46%	56%	44%	47.9%	47.14%	52.86%
47%	55%	45%	48.3%	47.65%	52.35%
48%	54%	46%	48.8%	48.14%	51.86%
49%	53%	47%	49.2%	48.63%	51.37%
50%	52%	48%	49.7%	49.10%	50.90%
51%	51%	49%	50.1%	49.57%	50.43%
52%	50%	50%	50.5%	50.03%	49.97%

 

 

Arizona Senate Poll Analysis (Cont.)

Richard Charnin
Nov.3, 2018

The latest CNN, NBC, CBS AZ senate polls show Sinema up by 4,6 and 3%. FOX has the race tied at 46%. The FOX internal numbers say otherwise.

McSally leads by 48.7-45.8%. But this is conservative as FOX gives her just 3% of Dems and 85% of Repubs. The assumption is that they split Independents 50-50%.

When will the MSM learn? You can’t fool ALL of the people ALL of the time.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html

https://www.scribd.com/document/392088280/Fox-Arizona-Late-October-Complete-Topline-October-31-Release#from_embed

AZ	Party ID	McSally	Sinema
Rep	50%	85% << low	8%
Dem	40%	3% << low	92%
Ind/Other	10%	50%	50%
Total	100.0%	48.7%	45.8%
11/2 Early voting (000)	1461 ballots	611 Rep (41.8%)	495 Dem (33.9%)

Let’s make these plausible adjustments (in bold) to McSally’s shares. McSally has 51.4%.

AZ	Party ID	McSally	Sinema
Rep	50%	88%	8%
Dem	40%	6%	92%
Ind/Other	10%	50%	50%
Total	100.0%	51.4%	45.8%

Sensitivity Analysis- McSally’s total share from worst case lower left cell (48.7%) to best case upper right (52.2%)

	McSally % Rep
McSally	85%	86%	87%	88%
%Dem
8%	50.7%	51.2%	51.7%	52.2%
7%	50.3%	50.8%	51.3%	51.8%
6%	49.9%	50.4%	50.9%	51.4%
5%	49.5%	50.0%	50.5%	51.0%
4%	49.1%	49.6%	50.1%	50.6%
3%	48.7%	49.2%	49.7%	50.2%

Note: The AZ 2016 final exit poll Party ID differs from the FOX poll. But the HRC and DJT total vote shares nearly match.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/arizona/president

AZ 2016	Party ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
Dem	28.0%	89.0%	7.0%	3.0%	0.0%
Rep	32.0%	7.0%	88.0%	3.0%	0.0%
Ind	40.0%	44.0%	47.0%	5.0%	2.0%
Total	100.0%	44.8%	48.9%	3.8%	0.80%
Votes	2,573	1,152	1,259	98	21
		Margin	107	4.2%