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Category Archives: 2018 Elections

Did CBS and CNN low-ball Trump’s Democratic SOTU viewers and approval?

Richard Charnin
Feb 7, 2019

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Did CBS and CNN low-ball Trump’s Democratic SOTU viewers and approval?

According to CBS and CNN, 76% of  viewers approved of Trump’s SOTU. But the percentage of Democratic viewers was very low considering that CBS and CNN viewers are heavily Democratic.  Trump must have done much better among Democratic viewers than indicated in each poll and may have had over 80% total approval.

On CBS, Republican viewers (44%) outnumbered Democrats (25%) and Independents (31%) with 30% of Dems approving, 97% of Repubs and 82% of Independents. One would expect that CBS viewers would be overwhelmingly Democrats.

Assume CBS viewers were Dem 60%, Rep 20%, Ind 20%. Then to match Trump’s total 76% approval, estimated Dem approval is 66%, Rep 97%, Ind 86%.  This is plausible.

Assume CBS viewers represented Gallup national voter affiliation (34% Dem, 25% Rep, 41% Ind). Then to match Trump’s 76% approval, estimated Dem approval is 56%, Rep 97%, Ind 80%.

On CNN, Dem approval is 36%, Rep 87%, Ind 57%. Then to match 76% Trump approval, CNN viewers must have been: Dem 15%, Rep 75%, Ind 10%. This is not plausible.

Assume CNN viewers were Dem 45%, Rep 30%, Ind 25% with  Dem approval 66%, Rep 97%, Ind 87%. Then Trump had 81% total approval. This is plausible.

CBS poll Pct Approv
Dem………25% 30% < NOT PLAUSIBLE. Only 25% Dem viewers?
Rep……….44% 97%
Ind………..31% 82%
Total…….100% 76%

CBS1……. Pct Approv
Dem……. 60% 66% < 60% Dem is plausible
Rep……… 20% 97%
Ind………. 20% 86%
Total…….100% 76%

CBS2……. Pct Approv
Dem……. 60% 75% < 60% Dem is plausible
Rep……… 20% 97%
Ind………. 20% 86%
Total…….100% 82%   TRUMP 82% TOTAL APPROVAL

Gallup……Pct Approv
Dem………34% 56%
Rep……….25% 97%
Ind………..41% 80%
Total…….100% 76%

CNN poll.. Pct Approv
Dem………15% 36% < NOT PLAUSIBLE. Only 15% Dem viewers?
Rep………..75% 87%
Ind…………10% 57% Only 10% Ind?
Total…….100% 76%

CNN1….. Pct Approv
Dem……. 30% 60% < only 30% Dem viewers?
Rep…….. 30% 87%
Ind……… 40% 80%
Total…….100% 76%

CNN2….. Pct Approv
Dem……. 45% 66% <plausible
Rep…….. 30% 97%
Ind……… 25% 87%
Total…….100% 81%  TRUMP 81% TOTAL APPROVAL

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Posted by on February 7, 2019 in 2018 Elections

 

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2018 House Election: Dems needed a 5.6% popular vote margin to win the House

Richard Charnin
Jan. 20, 2019

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Nate Silver calculated that the Dems needed a 5.6% popular vote margin to win the House (218-217). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

The Dems won by 8% (53.1-45.1%, 8.9 million recorded votes) a 235-200 seat margin. 

But the Dems won 32 of 38 tossups- a 1 in 100,000 probability, an indicator of fraud. Thirty-three of the 38 tossups were held by Repubs. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/11/11/2018-house-probability-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Rasmussen was the only pollster to project a Repub win: 46-45%.  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

The National Generic Exit Poll was forced to closely match the recorded vote. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=210218497

2018 NEP Party ID Republicans Democrats Other
Republicans 33% 94% 6% 0
Democrats 37% 4% 95% 1%
Independents 30% 42% 54% 4%
Calc share 100% 45.10% 53.33% 1.57%
Calc vote 111,478,885 50,276,977 59,451,689 1,750,218
Popular vote 111,835,736 50,449,312 59,379,804 2,006,620
Popular share 100% 45.10% 53.10% 1.80%
House 201 234

Assuming Silver’s analysis,  a Dem popular vote margin under 5.6% would result in the Repubs winning the House. For example, if the Repubs had 47% of Independents, keeping other NEP percentages constant, the  Dems would have a 51.8-46.6% win (5.2% margin, 5.6 million votes) but the Repubs would win the House.

Generic Party-ID Rep Dem Other
Rep 33% 94% 6% 0%
Dem 37% 4% 95% 1%
Ind  30% 47% 49% 4%
Share 46.60% 51.83% 1.57%
Votes 51,408 57,177 1,732

A 1% gain/loss in margin results in a gain/loss of approximately 7 seats =17/2.6. (17=235-218; 2.6= 8.2-5.6)

Dem Margin Dem Seats
8.23% 235
7.36% 230
6.49% 225
5.63% 218
4.78% 215
3.93% 210
3.09% 205

 

 

 
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Posted by on January 20, 2019 in 2018 Elections

 

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AZ Senate vs Governor: a major discrepancy

Richard Charnin

Nov. 26, 2018

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AZ Senate vs Governor: a major discrepancy

Republican Governor Ducey won by 337,000 votes. Democrat Senator Sinema won by 56,000 votes.

McSally (R) led in early voting by 475k-365k (56.5-43.5%). Sinema needed 826k (55.6%) of 1486k votes on Election Day to match her 50.6% share.

In Maricopa County (Phoenix), McSally led in early voting by 302k-216k (58.3-41.7%) but Sinema won the county 659k-611k (51.9-48.1%) – a 134k vote(12.8%) decline from McSally’s early margin.

Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote. The recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote. Check Party ID and the vote shares

Did McSally win the True Vote? I smell a rat.

National Exit Poll https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/national-results Dems win 53.3-45.1% (9.2 million votes)

Gov Exit Poll -Party ID https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona Ducey (R) wins by 337,000 votes

Senate Exit Poll -Party ID https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate Sinema (D) wins by 56,000 votes

True Vote estimate 1 Turnout based on voter registration and plausible vote shares. McSally wins by 65,000 votes.

True Vote estimate 2 Turnout based on Exit Poll Party ID and plausible vote shares. McSally wins by 130,000 votes.

Sensitivity Analysis McSally vote share, margins and win probability scenarios.

Early ballots GOP led by 475,000-365,000 votes (53.3-44.5%). Sinema needed 826,000 (55.6%) of 1,486,000 Election Day ballots to match the recorded vote.

NEP Party ID Democrats Republicans Other
Dem 37% 95% 4% 1%
Rep 33% 6% 94% 0
Ind 30% 54% 42% 4%
Total 100% 53.3% 45.1% 1.6%
111,478 59,451 50,276 1,750
AZ Gov Party ID Garcia Ducey Other
Dem 31% 85% 14% 1%
Rep 38% 5% 95% N/A
Ind 31% 45% 52% 3%
Match 100.0% 42.2% 56.6% 1.2%
Vote 2354 994 1331 29.18
100.0% 41.8% 56.0% 2.2%
Margin 337
Recorded Reg Sinema McSally Other
Dem 31% 97% 3% 0%
Rep 38% 12% 85% 3%
Ind 31% 50% 47% 3%
Total 100.0% 50.1% 47.8% 2.1%
Vote 2366 1186 1131 49
Margin -55
Sensitivity McSally%Dem
McSally%Rep 3% 5% 7% 9%
 Vote Share
90% 49.7% 50.3% 50.9% 51.6%
89% 49.3% 49.9% 50.6% 51.2%
88% 48.9% 49.6% 50.2% 50.8%
87% 48.6% 49.2% 49.8% 50.4%
86% 48.2% 48.8% 49.4% 50.0%
85% 47.8% recorded 48.4% 49.0% 49.7%
Margin (000)
90% 35 64 93 123
89% 17 46 75 105
88% -1 28 57 87
87% -19 10 40 69
86% -37 -8 22 51
85% -55 recorded -26 4 33
Win Prob
90% 64.3% 78.2% 88.3% 94.5%
89% 54.5% 70.0% 82.6% 91.1%
88% 44.4% 60.7% 75.3% 86.4%
87% 34.7% 50.8% 66.7% 80.1%
86% 26.0% 40.8% 57.1% 72.3%
85% 18.5% recorded 31.4% 47.1% 63.3%
Candidate Recorded Vote Pct Early vote Chg votes Eday Votes Required
Sinema 1,191,100 50.6% 365,469 825,631 55.58%
McSally 1,135,200 47.6% 475,372 659,828 44.42%
Green (withdrawn) 57,442 1.8% 256,737 -199,295 -15.50%
Total votes 2,383,741 100.00% 1,097,578 1,286,163 100.00%

 McSally change in share  from early to final vote

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit?fbclid=IwAR0o8HS47QrCZ81HFoEi3WxFDdrMwCQt9SFNK-tgZY-bvWp9sjE8J8Q-2BM#gid=130243910

County Early share Final share Margin Change
Apache 36.3% 32.4% -6,896
Cochise 58.9% 61.0% 6,808
Coconino 41.5% 36.0% -12,292
Gila 64.9% 61.5% 1,863
Graham 66.5% 67.1% 2,206
Greenlee 40.7% 57.6% 567
LaPaz 73.6% 66.6% 671
Maricopa 58.3% 48.1% -134,453
Mohave 74.2% 72.3% 17,831
Navajo 58.3% 53.0% 374
Pima 44.5% 42.4% -37,720
Pinal 61.6% 56.1% 5,839
Santa Cruz 28.5% 29.3% -3,466
Yavapai 70.0% 61.9% 10,463
Yuma 58.0% 53.2% 295
Total 56.5% 49.1% -147,910

County Graph

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTvZppVule4a_07xPErlSU-yVsOC-otyIakWvE9_9CQp5K55Vkqcefjsr0J9_EyRk5TyTWLHTccQeKR/pubchart?oid=672043111&format=interactive

 
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Posted by on November 26, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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17 House races: What if?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 23, 2018

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The Dems led by 203-194 on Election Day. They won 32 of 38 tossups – a 1 in 100,000 probability – and won the House by 235-200.

In the expected 50/50 split of the 38 tossups, the GOP would win 19 races and need just five additional seats to win the House. The math: 218 = 194+19+5.

Consider the 17 House tossups in the table below. The GOP led the 17-poll average by 1%, but the Dems won all 17 elections by 2%. The GOP led in 10 of the 17 tossups by 2.6%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

Dem Poll Rep Poll Margin WinProb Dem vote Rep vote Margin
Average 45.12 46.08 0.96 60.2% 50.36 48.39 1.98
2-party 49.47 50.53 1.05 51.00 49.00 2.00
CA25 44 48 4 85.7% 51.7 48.3 3.4
CA39 48 52 4 83.6% 50.5 49.5 1.0
CA45 46 50 4 84.6% 50.8 49.2 1.6
CA48 44 48 4 85.7% 52.0 48.0 4.0
MI8 45 48 3 78.5% 50.6 46.8 3.8
VA7 44 46 2 70.7% 50.3 48.5 1.8
NM2 44.5 46.3 1.8 68.6% 50.7 49.3 1.4
NJ3 44 45 1 60.8% 49.9 48.8 1.1
NY22 45 46 1 60.6% 50.3 49.7 0.6
TX7 45 46 1 60.6% 52.3 47.7 4.6
FL26 45 44 -1 39.2% 50.9 49.1 1.8
ME2 47 46 -1 39.6% 46.2 45.5 0.7
NC9 45 44 -1 39.2% 49.4 48.8 0.6
NY19 43 42 -1 38.7% 50.2 47.3 2.9
IA3 44.5 43 -1.5 33.7% 49.0 47.5 1.5
CA10 47 45 -2 29.7% 50.9 49.1 1.8
GA6 46 44 -2 29.3% 50.5 49.5 1.0

 

 
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Posted by on November 23, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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Repub California House races too close to call flipped to the Dems

Richard Charnin
Nov. 21, 2018

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The Repubs led by 4% in each of 4 districts which flipped to the Dems. The win probability was 85% in each of the districts (4.0% margin of error).

The Dems led by 203-194 seats on Election Day with 38 tossups. On Nov. 21, the Dems won the House by 235-200, winning 32 of 38 tossups – a 1 in 100,000 probability. An even 19-19 split of the  tossups would have resulted in a 222-213 Dem win. Then the GOP  would need just five additional seats to win the House.

……………….Poll………………Vote
……………Dem Rep ….. Dem Rep Margin
CA10……. 47 45  -2…… 50.9 49.1  -1.8
CA25……. 44 48   4…… 51.7 48.3  -3.4

CA39……. 48 52   4…… 50.5 49.5  -1.0
Cisneros vs. Kim (R) vote change from Election Day to 11/16

CA45……. 46 50   4…… 50.8 49.2  -1.6
CA48……. 44 48   4…… 52.0 48.0  -4.0 Rohrabacher (R) lost after 30 years in Congress

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

The Democrats had 300,000 more votes in Orange County Congressional races than for Democrat governor Gavin Newsom. https://web.archive.org/web/20181119210758/https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/11/voter-fraud-orange-county-numbers-dont-add-up-democrats-had-300000-more-votes-for-congressional-seats-than-for-governor/

Tip of the iceberg?
“Prosecutors have charged nine people with a dozen felony counts for allegedly offering money and cigarettes to homeless people on Skid Row in exchange for false and forged signatures on ballot petitions and voter registration forms, the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office announced today”.
http://da.co.la.ca.us/sites/default/files/press/112018_Nine_Charged_in_Large_Scale_Voter_Fraud_Scheme_on_Skid_Row.pdf

 
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Posted by on November 21, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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Did the GOP actually win the House?

Did the GOP actually win the House?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 21, 2018

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Let’s speculate given the unlikely trend in tossups and strange anomalies.
. Long-held GOP seats in California flipped (Rohrabacher,etc.)
. Broward & Palm Beach County incompetence and/or fraud.
. Arizona GOP governor won by 328,000 votes but McSally lost the senate by 30,000 after leading in early voting.
. The Dems led by 203-194 seats on Election Day with 38 tossups.  The Dems won the House by 235-200 with 32 of 38 tossups flipping to the Dems, a 1 in 100,000 probability.
. With an expected tossup split of 19 seats each, the Dems would win by 222-213. Is it inconceivable that the GOP may have won at least five more seats and a 218-217 win?
. How many  races which leaned to the Dems in the polls flipped to the GOP?
. The pre-election 38 tossup 2-party poll average (50.50D-49.50R%) exactly matched the recorded tossup vote average (50.52D-49.48R%). Strange.

“Republican congressional candidate Young Kim, who just days ago was poised to be the first Korean-American woman in Congress as she led a closely contested California House race, is accusing her opponent of “harassing and intimidating” vote counters as her lead has disappeared.

Kim is vying to replace retiring Rep. Ed Royce, R-Calif., in California’s 39th District, which includes part of the state’s more Republican Orange County. Last week, she held about a 3-point lead over Democrat Gil Cisneros with about 150,000 votes counted.But since then, that lead vanished, with Cisneros taking a 941-vote as of late Thursday”.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republican-young-kim-loses-lead-in-california-house-race-accuses-opponent-gil-cisneros-of-harassing-vote-counters

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

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Posted by on November 19, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2018

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According to Real Clear Politics, there was a 203D-194R split on Election Day. There were 38 tossups. Currently, the Dems lead 235-199 with one race disputed.

– If the Repubs win the disputed race (235D-200R), the probability that the Dems would win 32 of 38 tossups is P= 0.001% = 1 in 99,569 = binomdist (32, 38, 0.5, false)

– If the Dems win the race (236D-199R), the probability that the Dems would win 33 of 38 tossups is P= 0.0002% = 1 in 547,629 = binomdist (33, 38, 0.5, false)

Of the 38 tossups, 33 were  Repub-held. We would normally expect a tossup split of 19 Dems and 19 Repubs. That would result in a 222D-213R House.

The Democrats led in 203 (51.1%) of 397 seats. They won 32 (84.2%) of the remaining 38 tossups. Note that 51.1% of 38= 19.4. 

Of the 15 seats which leaned to the  Dems, 11 were Repub-held. Assuming a 19D-19R tossup split, the Repubs needed 5 of the 15 to win the House (218=194+19+5).

The recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote. There are vote miscounts in every election, especially in close races within the MoE.

Given 203D-194R on Election Day, the following  table displays Democrat win probabilities assuming a 50/50 and  50.5D-49.5R split in the 38 tossups.

50.0D-50.0R 50.5D-49.5R
X=Dem seats Prob (X) 1 in Prob (X) 1 in
215 1.0% 101 0.9% 117
216 2.0% 50 1.7% 57
217 3.5% 28 3.2% 31
218 5.6% 18 5.2% 19
219 8.1% 12 7.6% 13
220 10.5% 9.6 10.0% 10
221 12.2% 8.2 12.0% 8.4
222 expected 12.9% 7.8 12.8% 7.8
223 12.2% 8.2 12.4% 8.0
224 10.5% 10 10.9% 9.2
225 8.1% 12 8.6% 11.7
226 5.6% 18 6.1% 16.4
227 3.5% 28 3.9% 25
228 2.0% 51 2.2% 45
229 1.0% 102 1.1% 88
230 0.4% 228 0.5% 195
231 0.2% 581 0.2% 486
232 0.1% 1,686 0.1% 1,383
233 0.0178% 5,621 0.021% 4,519
234 0.0046% 21,781 0.0058% 17,165
235  0.0010% 99,569 0.0013% 76,918
236 0.0002% 547,629 0.0001% 414,672
237 0.00003% 3,723,876 0.000036% 2,763,934
238 0.000003% 32,583,915 0.000004% 23,705,526

2018 MIDTERMS POSTS

AZ Senate vs Governor a major discrepancy
Dems needed a 5.6% popular vote margin to win the House
17 House races: what-if?
Repub CA House races too close to call flipped to Dems
Did the GOP actually win the House?
2018 House probability analysis indicates fraud
GOP House: Red wave?
What is the probability Dems will win the House?
Arizona CBS Senate Poll More Anomalies
Generic vote forecast model vs RCP average (10-29)
Inflated Democratic generic polls indicates Republicans will win the House
GOP wins Texas-SD-19 for first time in-139-years
Florida Governor Polling Analysis
Trump has a higher approval rating than MSM polls
Rasmussen vs. WaPo: Trump approval

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/house/ https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/house/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTvZppVule4a_07xPErlSU-yVsOC-otyIakWvE9_9CQp5K55Vkqcefjsr0J9_EyRk5TyTWLHTccQeKR/pubchart?oid=1371017998&format=interactive

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=1032811684

The MSM, CNN and LA Times admitted the GOP could keep the House in a Red Tsunami
http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/msm-red-tsunami/?fbclid=IwAR0C43VxE9xy7HPybwzd_cIBKdcTjDXh5f-UGB9-zD7icp-aGMIB9DTo_Dk

 
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Posted by on November 11, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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