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Category Archives: 2018 Elections

Close analysis of inflated Democratic MSM Generic polls indicates the Republicans will win the House

Richard Charnin
Oct.11, 2018

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On Oct. 11, 2018,  the Dems are leading by 49-40% in 7 Real Clear Politics (RCP) MSM Generic polls. Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP  have the Dems leading 45-44%. Which is closer to the truth?

It’s all about voter turnout. Assume the base case: 1) the Democrats and Republicans (after Kavanaugh) are equally motivated to turnout (40% of registered voters), 2)   Gallup voter affiliation Party ID (28D-27R-45I) closely reflects the electorate and 3) there is an equal split in vote shares of independents (50-50%) and party loyalty (90-10%). The  Generic 2-party vote is Dem 50.4%- Repub 49.6%.

In the last three elections, the Dems and Repubs were virtually tied in the Generic ballot and RCP poll average.  The Repubs won the House in all three by a 241-194 average.

Consider various voter turnout scenarios.  For the Dems to win by 9% as the 7-poll RCP average indicates, there would have to be 56% Dem and 40% Repub turnout. Not likely.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1619968863

 

 Scenario I Party-ID Turnout/ Reg Voters Turnout Votes (000) Repub Dem
Rep 27% 40% 17020 90% 10%
Dem 28% 40% 17651 10% 90%
Ind 45% 40% 28367 50% 50%
Total 100% 40% 49.60% 50.40%
Votes 63,038 31,267 31,771
Various Turnout scenarios
Rep Ind Dem Total Repub Dem
40% 40% 40% 40.0% 49.60% 50.40%
40% 40% 41% 40.3% 49.32% 50.68%
40% 40% 42% 40.5% 49.05% 50.95%
40% 40% 43% 40.8% 48.79% 51.21%
40% 40% 44% 41.1% 48.52% 51.48%
40% 40% 45% 41.4% 48.26% 51.74%
Votes 65,166 31,488 33,757
40% 40% 56% 44.3% 45.61% 54.39%
Votes 69,847 31,973 38,126
Generic Poll % RCP Avg % House
Election Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep
2016 46 45.4 48 49.1 194 241
2014 43.2 45.6 45.2 51.4 188 247
2012 47.3 47.5 49.2 48 201 234
Average 45.5 46.2 47.5 49.5 194.3 240.7

What if the Repubs win 53% of Independents, assuming equal 40% registered voter turnout? Then they win the Generic vote by 51-49%.

Scenario II Party-ID Turnout/ Reg Voters Turnout Votes (000) Repub Dem
Rep 27% 40% 17020 90% 10%
Dem 28% 40% 17651 10% 90%
Ind 45% 40% 28367 53% 47%
Total 100% 40.0% 50.95% 49.05%
Votes 63,038 32,118 30,920
Date Sample Dem% Repub% Spread
 RCP 9-poll Average 9/27 – 10/9 48.1 41.2 6.9
Economist/YouGov 10/7 – 10/9 1162 RV 47 41 6
Reuters/Ipsos 10/3 – 10/9 2012 LV 50 38 12
CNN 10/4 – 10/7 739 LV 54 41 13
Emerson 10/1 – 10/4 1000 RV 50 42 8
NPR/PBS/ Marist 10/1 – 10/1 996 RV 48 42 6
Harvard-Harris 9/29 – 9/30 1330 RV 45 37 8
Quinnipiac 9/27 – 9/30 1111 RV 49 42 7
7-poll Average 49.0 40.4 8.6
Rasmussen Reports 9/30 – 10/4 2500 LV 45 45 0
IBD/TIPP 9/27 – 10/3 846 RV 45 43 2
Average 45.0 44.0 1.0
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Posted by on October 11, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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GOP wins Texas senate district 19 for first time in 139 years

Richard Charnin
Sept.27, 2018

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Flores (GOP) wins Texas senate district 19 (53-47%) for the first time in 139 years. Hispanics comprise 66%, blacks 7%, whites 27%.

Hillary Clinton carried  SD19 by 12%. Trump carried TX by 7%.

TX 2016 Clinton Trump Other Trump 2pty
White 57% 26% 69% 5% 73%
Black 11% 84% 11% 5% 12%
Hispanic 24% 61% 34% 5% 36%
Asian 5% 72% 26% 2% 27%
Other 3% 56% 36% 8% 39%
Total 100.0% 44.0% 51.1% 4.9% 53.8%

In SD19, Flores did 9% (estimated) better than Trump. The following table shows how the groups may have voted.

SD19 (2-party) Pct Trump Flores
White 27% 73% 73%
Black 7% 12% 24%
Hispanic 66% 36% 48%
Total 100% 44.3% 53.1%

Recent polling shows Democratic U.S. senators are vulnerable in close races in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota and New Jersey.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018/09/20/gop-victory-in-texas-race-is-good-sign-that-republicans-can-defy-history-in-midterms.html

 
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Posted by on September 27, 2018 in 2016 election, 2018 Elections

 

2018 Generic Ballot Scenarios

Richard Charnin
9/25/2018

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2018 Generic Ballot Scenarios

Real Clear Politics: Democrats lead 48.7-41.2%
Given: Gallup voter affiliation 28R-27D-45I
2016 Census: Total Registered Voters = 157,596,000
The RCP 7.5% Dem margin requires a 56-40% Dem lead in registered voter turnout

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

Generic Poll Model Row 132: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1619968863

Assume equal 40% Dem, Rep, Ind turnout
Result: Republicans win Generic vote 45.05-44.62%

The RCP 7.5% Dem margin requires a 56-40% Dem lead in registered voter turnout

Turnout 2018 Party-ID Turnout/ Reg % Turnout Rep Dem Other
Rep 28% 40% 17651 86% 7% 7%
Dem 27% 40% 17020 6% 88% 6%
Ind 45% 40% 28367 43% 42% 15%
Total 100% 40.00% 45.05% 44.62% 10.33%
Votes 63,038 28,399 28,128 6,512
Rep Ind Dem Turnout Total Turnout Rep Dem Other
40% 40% 40% 40.00% 45.05% 44.62% 10.33%
40% 40% 41% 40.27% 44.79% 44.91% 10.30%
40% 40% 42% 40.54% 44.53% 45.20% 10.27%
40% 40% 43% 40.81% 44.27% 45.48% 10.24%
40% 40% 44% 41.08% 44.02% 45.76% 10.22%
40% 40% 45% 41.35% 43.78% 46.04% 10.19%
Votes 65,166 28,526 30,000 6,640
40% 40% 56% 44.32% 41.24% 48.85% 9.91%
Votes 69,847 28,807 34,119 6,920

Historical Turnout
http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present

 

 
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Posted by on September 25, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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Reuters Trump Approval: from 42% to 47% in one week. Why? Do the math.

Richard Charnin
Sept.23, 2018

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Reuters/Ipsos Trump Approval was 42.5% on 9/13/18.
1) Democrat Party ID was over-weighted at 40%
2) Republican Trump approval was understated at 84%
3) Independent Trump approval was understated at 38%

On 9/20/18 Reuters has 47% Trump approval. Why the jump?
1) Democratic Party ID is 27% based on the Gallup Survey.
2) Independent Party ID is 45%.
3) Republican Trump approval is a reasonable 90%
4) Independent Trump approval is 43%

Rasmussen has Trump at 49%.

 

Trump approval
Reuters 9/13 Party ID Approval Adjusted1 Rasmussen1
Rep 35.0% 84.0% 90.0% 91.0%
Dem 40.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
Ind/Other 25.0% 38.0% 43.0% 47.0%
Total 100.0% 42.5% 45.9% 47.2%
Reuters 9/20 Gallup Party ID Approval Adjusted2 Rasmussen2
Rep 28.0% 84.0% 90.0% 91.0%
Dem 27.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
Ind/Other 45.0% 38.0% 43.0% 47.0%
Total 100.0% 43.1% 47.0% 49.1%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html#polls
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

 
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Posted by on September 23, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

Florida Governor Pre-election Polls

Richard Charnin
Sept. 14, 2018

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According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Gillum leads DeSantis by 3%. DeSantis has just 52% of whites (implausible), 2% of blacks (implausible) and 56% of Latinos/others. Let’s recalculate using plausible vote shares.

Rasmussen has Gillum ahead by 48-42%. DeSantis has just 29% of Independents and 46% of whites?  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

But first consider the 2016 FL presidential election. According to the FL exit poll, Trump had 64% of whites, 8% of blacks and 35% of Latinos. He had 89% of Republicans, 8% of Democrats and 47% of Independents.

Florida Exit Poll (match to recorded vote)

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/florida/president

Party ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 32% 90% 8% 0% 1%
Rep 33% 8% 89% 3% 0%
Ind/oth 34% 43% 47% 3% 1%
Match 99% 46.1% 47.9% 2.0% 0.7%
Reported 47.8% 49.0% 2.2% 0.7%
Votes 9,420 4,505 4,618 207 64

 

Race Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 62% 32% 64% 4%
Black 14% 84% 8% 8%
Latino 18% 62% 35% 3%
Asian 2% 58% 36% 6%
Other 4% 58% 36% 6%
Calc 100.0% 46.2% 49.3% 4.5%

Quinnipiac- 2018 Fl Gov

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2565

FLORIDA Quinnipiac What If
PartyID Pct DeSantis Gillum DeSantis Gillum
Dem 31% 3% 93% 6% 93%
Rep 35% 92% 6% 92% 6%
Ind/Other 34% 42% 55% 47% 48%
Total 100% 47.4% 49.6% 50.0% 47.3%
What If
Race Pct DeSantis Gillum DeSantis Gillum
White 67% 52% 45% 58% 39%
Black 14% 2% 93% 6% 93%
Lat/oth 19% 56% 43% 56% 43%
Total 100% 45.8% 51.3% 50.3% 47.3%

Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/crosstabs_toplines/public_crosstabs_election_2018_florida_governor_september_10_11_2018

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/florida/election_2018_florida_governor

Rasmussen What if
PartyID Pct DeSantis Gillum DeSantis Gillum
Dem 31% 14% 82% 10% 90%
Rep 35% 80% 13% 90% 10%
Ind/Other 34% 29% 54% 47% 53%
Total 100% 42.2% 48.3% 50.6% 49.4%
What if
Race Pct DeSantis Gillum DeSantis Gillum
White 67% 46% 45% 55% 45%
Black 14% 24% 75% 20% 80%
Lat/oth 19% 48% 37% 55% 45%
Total 100% 43.3% 47.7% 50.1% 49.9%

 

 
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Posted by on September 14, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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Why Trump has a higher approval rating than the MSM polls

Richard Charnin
Sept. 11, 2018

Sept. 11 RCP average 40.6%; Rasmussen 47%
Sept. 22:  RCP average 42.2%; Rasmussen 49%
Oct. 4:  RCP average 43.5%; Rasmussen 51%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Why the discrepancy with Rasmussen?
1) Democrat Party ID overweighted (6-7% over Repub)
2) Trump’s estimated true approval (90% Repub, 43% Independent) reduced to 78-84% and 35-38%.

Calculate adjusted Trump approval based on
1) PollID = pollster Party ID*pollster approval
2) Adj1 = pollster Party ID*adjusted approval
3) GallupID = Gallup Party ID*pollster approval
4) Adj2 = Gallup PartyID*adjusted approval

 

Rasmussen Oct.4 Gallup ID Approval
Rep 28% 92%
Dem 27% 9%
Ind/Other 45% 51%
Total 100% 51.1%
Trump Sept. 11 Approval
Reuters/Ipsos  Party ID Approval Adjusted1
Rep 35% 84% 90%
Dem 40% 9% 9%
Ind/Other 25% 38% 430%
Total 100% 42.5% 45.9%
Actual 43.0%
Reuters
Gallup/adjusted Gallup ID Approval Adjusted2
Rep 28% 84% 90%
Dem 27% 9% 9%
Ind/Other 45% 38% 43%
Total 100% 43.1% 47.0%
Washington Post Party ID Approval Adjusted1
Rep 25% 78% 90%
Dem 33% 6% 6%
Ind/Other 37% 35% 43%
Total 95% 34.4% 40.4%
Actual 38%
Gallup/adjusted Gallup ID Approval Adjusted2
Rep 28% 78% 90%
Dem 27% 6% 6%
Ind/Other 45% 35% 43%
Total 100% 39.2% 46.17%
Actual 40%
CNN Party ID Approval Adjusted1
Rep 25% 83% 90%
Dem 31% 6% 6%
Ind/Other 44% 29% 43%
Total 100% 35.4% 43.3%
Actual 37%
Gallup/adjusted Gallup ID Approval Adjusted2
Rep 28% 83% 90%
Dem 27% 6% 6%
Ind/Other 45% 29% 43%
Total 100% 37.9% 46.17%
Quinnipiac Party ID Approval Adjusted1
Rep 25% 84% 90%
Dem 34% 4% 4%
Ind/Other 41% 36% 43%
Total 100% 37.1% 41.5%
Actual 38%
Gallup/adjusted Gallup ID Approval Adjusted2
Rep 28% 84% 90%
Dem 27% 4% 4%
Ind/Other 45% 36% 43%
Total 100% 40.8% 45.63%
Total Sept.22 Actual Poll PartyID Adjusted1 Gallup PartyID Adjusted2
Reuters 42.0% 42.5% 45.9% 43.1% 47.0%
WaPo 38.0% 34.4% 40.4% 39.2% 46.2%
CNN 37.0% 35.4% 43.3% 37.9% 46.2%
Quinnipiac 38.0% 37.1% 41.5% 40.8% 45.6%
AVG 38.8% 37.4% 42.8% 40.2% 46.2%
 
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Posted by on September 9, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

Rasmussen vs. WaPo: Trump Approval

Richard Charnin
Updated: Aug.31, 2018

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According to Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Trump has a 48% total approval rating. Among black voters, he has 34% approval.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

The Washington Post tried to refute Rasmussen’s results with an article entitled “No, one-third of African Americans don’t support Trump. Not even close”.

The  Post needs to take an algebra class. WaPo says Trump total approval is 36% with 3% black approval. This is mathematically impossible, counter-intuitive and an insult to the intelligence of any rational reader.  

Once again, WaPo bias is showing. Given Rasmussen’s 48% total Trump approval, then 34% of blacks approve and 50% of non-blacks approve. Here is the proof based on the 88% non-black/12% black split of the electorate.
Given: Trump Approval =.48 (total)
Blacks = 12% of the electorate (34% Trump approval)
Let X = total non-black approval
.48= .88*X+.12*34
X=(.48-.12*.34)/.88
X= 0.50 non-black approval

Proof: If Trump has 3% black approval, then he must have 40% total approval (45% non-black approval) given the 88/12% split.
Total approval = non-black approval + black approval = .40 =0.88*0.45+0.12*0.03

The Harris-Harvard Poll shows that Trump has 45% total approval.
https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/news/caps-harris-poll-foreign-policy-and-supreme-court

WaPo Trump approval shenanigans: Party-ID
Once again, they over-sample Democrats. But they also inflate the poll shares. In this conservative analysis the Gallup poll shares are set equal to WaPo:
Trump approval: WaPo 34.4%, Gallup 38.5%

WaPo
……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 25 78
Indep 37 35
Dem.. 33 6
Total 95 34.4
Gallup
……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 28 78
Indep 43 35
Dem.. 27 6
Total 98 38.5

Sensitivity- Adjust Republican and Independent Trump approval
Gallup

……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 28 90
Indep 43 43
Dem 27 6
Total 98 45.3

https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2018/08/31/National-Politics/Polling/question_20686.xml?uuid=UnUesq0MEeiafc0wUE_5Ag
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

According to the National Exit Poll, Trump had 8% of the recorded black vote. But he did much better than that since the NEP, as always, was forced to match a bogus recorded vote inflated for Clinton. Trump’s approval among blacks has risen sharply since the election (black unemployment is at an all-time low).

Trump Trump
 Non-black
Approval
Black 0.440 0.460 0.480 0.500
Approval Trump
Total
Approval
0.40 0.435 0.453 0.470 0.488
0.38 0.433 0.450 0.468 0.486
0.36 0.430 0.448 0.466 0.483
0.34 0.428 0.446 0.463 0.481
0.03 0.391 0.408 0.426 0.444

How does Trump’s approval among blacks translate to the popular vote?

Assume
1) 2016 National Exit poll white, latino, asian recorded vote shares. Note: Trump’s true shares were likely understated to force a match to the bogus recorded vote.
2) 2016 Census Race percentage breakdown
3) Trump’s vote share among blacks is equal to 36%.

Trump wins by 9 million votes.

National Exit Poll (adjusted to match recorded vote)
Race Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 71% 37% 57% 6%
Black 12% 89% 8% 3%
Latin 11% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 4% 65% 27% 8%
Other 2% 56% 36% 8%
Total 100% 47.9% 46.3% 5.8%

Census/NEP adjusted to 36% black approval
Census Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 73.30% 36.7% 56.8% 6.5%
Black 12.45% 61% 36% 3%  
Latin 9.22% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 3.67% 65% 27% 8%
Other 1.36% 56% 36% 8%
Votes 138.2 60.4 69.4 8.4
Share 100% 43.7% 50.2% 6.1%

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1200a1TrumpandtheMuellerInvestigation.pdf https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415

Census Table 4b. Reported Voting and Registration, by Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin, for States: November 2016
2016 Presidential Election Model

 
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Posted by on August 16, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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