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Category Archives: 2018 Elections

AZ Senate vs Governor: a major discrepancy

Richard Charnin
Nov. 26, 2018

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AZ Senate vs Governor: a major discrepancy

Republican Governor Ducey won by 337,000 votes.
Democrat Senator Sinema won by 56,000 votes.

McSally (R) led in early voting by 475k-365k (56.5-43.5%).
Sinema needed 826k (55.6%) of 1486k votes on Election Day to match her 50.6% share.

In Maricopa County (Phoenix), McSally led in early voting by 302k-216k (58.3-41.7%) but Sinema won the county 659k-611k (51.9-48.1%) – a 134k vote(12.8%) decline from McSally’s early margin.

Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
The recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote.

Check Party ID and the vote shares
Did McSally win the True Vote?
I smell a rat.

National Exit Poll 
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/national-results
Dems win 53.3-45.1% (9.2 million votes)

Gov Exit Poll -Party ID
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona
Ducey (R) wins by 337,000 votes

Senate Exit Poll -Party ID
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate
Sinema (D) wins by 56,000 votes

True Vote estimate 1
Turnout based on voter registration and plausible vote shares
McSally wins by 65,000 votes

True Vote estimate 2
Turnout based on Exit Poll Party ID and plausible vote shares
McSally wins by 130,000 votes

Sensitivity Analysis
McSally vote share, margins and win probability scenarios

Early ballots 
GOP led by 475,000-365,000 votes (53.3-44.5%)
Sinema needed 826,000 (55.6%) of 1,486,000 Election Day ballots
to match the recorded vote.

NEP Party ID Democrats Republicans Other
Dem 37% 95% 4% 1%
Rep 33% 6% 94% 0
Ind 30% 54% 42% 4%
Total 100% 53.3% 45.1% 1.6%
111,478 59,451 50,276 1,750
AZ Gov Party ID Garcia Ducey Other
Dem 31% 85% 14% 1%
Rep 38% 5% 95% N/A
Ind 31% 45% 52% 3%
Match 100.0% 42.2% 56.6% 1.2%
Vote 2354 994 1331 29.18
100.0% 41.8% 56.0% 2.2%
Margin 337
Recorded Reg Sinema McSally Other
Dem 31% 97% 3% 0%
Rep 38% 12% 85% 3%
Ind 31% 50% 47% 3%
Total 100.0% 50.1% 47.8% 2.1%
Vote 2366 1186 1131 49
Margin -55
Sensitivity McSally%Dem
McSally%Rep 3% 5% 7% 9%
 Vote Share
90% 49.7% 50.3% 50.9% 51.6%
89% 49.3% 49.9% 50.6% 51.2%
88% 48.9% 49.6% 50.2% 50.8%
87% 48.6% 49.2% 49.8% 50.4%
86% 48.2% 48.8% 49.4% 50.0%
85% 47.8% recorded 48.4% 49.0% 49.7%
Margin (000)
90% 35 64 93 123
89% 17 46 75 105
88% -1 28 57 87
87% -19 10 40 69
86% -37 -8 22 51
85% -55 recorded -26 4 33
Win Prob
90% 64.3% 78.2% 88.3% 94.5%
89% 54.5% 70.0% 82.6% 91.1%
88% 44.4% 60.7% 75.3% 86.4%
87% 34.7% 50.8% 66.7% 80.1%
86% 26.0% 40.8% 57.1% 72.3%
85% 18.5% recorded 31.4% 47.1% 63.3%
Candidate Recorded Vote Pct Early vote Chg votes Eday Votes Required
Sinema 1,191,100 50.6% 365,469 825,631 55.58%
McSally 1,135,200 47.6% 475,372 659,828 44.42%
Green (withdrawn) 57,442 1.8% 256,737 -199,295 -15.50%
Total votes 2,383,741 100.00% 1,097,578 1,286,163 100.00%

 McSally change in share  from early to final vote

County Early share Final share Margin Change
Apache 36.3% 32.4% -6,896
Cochise 58.9% 61.0% 6,808
Coconino 41.5% 36.0% -12,292
Gila 64.9% 61.5% 1,863
Graham 66.5% 67.1% 2,206
Greenlee 40.7% 57.6% 567
LaPaz 73.6% 66.6% 671
Maricopa 58.3% 48.1% -134,453
Mohave 74.2% 72.3% 17,831
Navajo 58.3% 53.0% 374
Pima 44.5% 42.4% -37,720
Pinal 61.6% 56.1% 5,839
Santa Cruz 28.5% 29.3% -3,466
Yavapai 70.0% 61.9% 10,463
Yuma 58.0% 53.2% 295
Total 56.5% 49.1% -147,910

County Graph

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTvZppVule4a_07xPErlSU-yVsOC-otyIakWvE9_9CQp5K55Vkqcefjsr0J9_EyRk5TyTWLHTccQeKR/pubchart?oid=672043111&format=interactive

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Posted by on November 26, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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17 House races: What if?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 23, 2018

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The Dems led by 203-194 on Election Day. They won 32 of 38 tossups – a 1 in 100,000 probability – and won the House by 235-200.

In the expected 50/50 split of the 38 tossups, the GOP would win 19 races and need just five additional seats to win the House. The math: 218 = 194+19+5.

Consider the 17 House tossups in the table below. The GOP led the 17-poll average by 1%, but the Dems won all 17 elections by 2%. The GOP led in 10 of the 17 tossups by 2.6%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

Dem Poll Rep Poll Margin WinProb Dem vote Rep vote Margin
Average 45.12 46.08 0.96 60.2% 50.36 48.39 1.98
2-party 49.47 50.53 1.05 51.00 49.00 2.00
CA25 44 48 4 85.7% 51.7 48.3 3.4
CA39 48 52 4 83.6% 50.5 49.5 1.0
CA45 46 50 4 84.6% 50.8 49.2 1.6
CA48 44 48 4 85.7% 52.0 48.0 4.0
MI8 45 48 3 78.5% 50.6 46.8 3.8
VA7 44 46 2 70.7% 50.3 48.5 1.8
NM2 44.5 46.3 1.8 68.6% 50.7 49.3 1.4
NJ3 44 45 1 60.8% 49.9 48.8 1.1
NY22 45 46 1 60.6% 50.3 49.7 0.6
TX7 45 46 1 60.6% 52.3 47.7 4.6
FL26 45 44 -1 39.2% 50.9 49.1 1.8
ME2 47 46 -1 39.6% 46.2 45.5 0.7
NC9 45 44 -1 39.2% 49.4 48.8 0.6
NY19 43 42 -1 38.7% 50.2 47.3 2.9
IA3 44.5 43 -1.5 33.7% 49.0 47.5 1.5
CA10 47 45 -2 29.7% 50.9 49.1 1.8
GA6 46 44 -2 29.3% 50.5 49.5 1.0

 

 
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Posted by on November 23, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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Repub California House races too close to call flipped to the Dems

Richard Charnin
Nov. 21, 2018

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The Repubs led by 4% in each of 4 districts which flipped to the Dems. The win probability was 85% in each of the districts (4.0% margin of error).

The Dems led by 203-194 seats on Election Day with 38 tossups. On Nov. 21, the Dems won the House by 235-200, winning 32 of 38 tossups – a 1 in 100,000 probability. An even 19-19 split of the  tossups would have resulted in a 222-213 Dem win. Then the GOP  would need just five additional seats to win the House.

……………….Poll………………Vote
……………Dem Rep ….. Dem Rep Margin
CA10……. 47 45  -2…… 50.9 49.1  -1.8
CA25……. 44 48   4…… 51.7 48.3  -3.4

CA39……. 48 52   4…… 50.5 49.5  -1.0
Cisneros vs. Kim (R) vote change from Election Day to 11/16

CA45……. 46 50   4…… 50.8 49.2  -1.6
CA48……. 44 48   4…… 52.0 48.0  -4.0 Rohrabacher (R) lost after 30 years in Congress

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

The Democrats had 300,000 more votes in Orange County Congressional races than for Democrat governor Gavin Newsom. https://web.archive.org/web/20181119210758/https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/11/voter-fraud-orange-county-numbers-dont-add-up-democrats-had-300000-more-votes-for-congressional-seats-than-for-governor/

Tip of the iceberg?
“Prosecutors have charged nine people with a dozen felony counts for allegedly offering money and cigarettes to homeless people on Skid Row in exchange for false and forged signatures on ballot petitions and voter registration forms, the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office announced today”.
http://da.co.la.ca.us/sites/default/files/press/112018_Nine_Charged_in_Large_Scale_Voter_Fraud_Scheme_on_Skid_Row.pdf

 
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Posted by on November 21, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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Did the GOP actually win the House?

Did the GOP actually win the House?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 21, 2018

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Let’s speculate given the unlikely trend in tossups and strange anomalies.
. Long-held GOP seats in California flipped (Rohrabacher,etc.)
. Broward & Palm Beach County incompetence and/or fraud.
. Arizona GOP governor won by 328,000 votes but McSally lost the senate by 30,000 after leading in early voting.
. The Dems led by 203-194 seats on Election Day with 38 tossups.  The Dems won the House by 235-200 with 32 of 38 tossups flipping to the Dems, a 1 in 100,000 probability.
. With an expected tossup split of 19 seats each, the Dems would win by 222-213. Is it inconceivable that the GOP may have won at least five more seats and a 218-217 win?
. How many  races which leaned to the Dems in the polls flipped to the GOP?
. The pre-election 38 tossup 2-party poll average (50.50D-49.50R%) exactly matched the recorded tossup vote average (50.52D-49.48R%). Strange.

“Republican congressional candidate Young Kim, who just days ago was poised to be the first Korean-American woman in Congress as she led a closely contested California House race, is accusing her opponent of “harassing and intimidating” vote counters as her lead has disappeared.

Kim is vying to replace retiring Rep. Ed Royce, R-Calif., in California’s 39th District, which includes part of the state’s more Republican Orange County. Last week, she held about a 3-point lead over Democrat Gil Cisneros with about 150,000 votes counted.But since then, that lead vanished, with Cisneros taking a 941-vote as of late Thursday”.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republican-young-kim-loses-lead-in-california-house-race-accuses-opponent-gil-cisneros-of-harassing-vote-counters

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

No automatic alt text available.

 
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Posted by on November 19, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2018

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2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud

According to Real Clear Politics, there was  a 203D-194R split on Election Day. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

The Dems won 32 of 38 of tossup elections.  The probability is P= 1 in 99,569.
P = binomdist (32, 38, 0.5, false) = 0.001%  (1 in 99,569)

The Democrats led in 203 (51.1%) of 397 seats. They won 32 (84.2%) of the remaining 38 tossups. Note that 51.1% of 38= 19.4. 

Of the 38 tossups, 33 were  Repub-held. We would normally expect an even tossup split: 19 Dems and 19 Repubs. That would result in a 222D-213R House. 

Of the 15 seats which leaned to the  Dems, 11 were Repub-held. Assuming a 19D-19R tossup split, the Repubs needed 5 of the 15 to win the House (218=194+19+5).

The recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote. There are vote miscounts in every election, especially in close races within the MoE.

Given 203D-194R on Election Day, the following  table displays Democrat win probabilities assuming a 50/50 and  50.5D-49.5R split in the 38 tossups.

50.0D-50.0R 50.5D-49.5R
X=Dem seats Prob (X) 1 in Prob (X) 1 in
215 1.0% 101 0.9% 117
216 2.0% 50 1.7% 57
217 3.5% 28 3.2% 31
218 5.6% 18 5.2% 19
219 8.1% 12 7.6% 13
220 10.5% 9.6 10.0% 10
221 12.2% 8.2 12.0% 8.4
222 expected 12.9% 7.8 12.8% 7.8
223 12.2% 8.2 12.4% 8.0
224 10.5% 10 10.9% 9.2
225 8.1% 12 8.6% 11.7
226 5.6% 18 6.1% 16.4
227 3.5% 28 3.9% 25
228 2.0% 51 2.2% 45
229 1.0% 102 1.1% 88
230 0.4% 228 0.5% 195
231 0.2% 581 0.2% 486
232 0.1% 1,686 0.1% 1,383
233 0.0178% 5,621 0.021% 4,519
234 0.0046% 21,781 0.0058% 17,165
235 actual 0.0010% 99,569 0.0013% 76,918
236 0.0002% 547,629 0.0001% 414,672
237 0.00003% 3,723,876 0.000036% 2,763,934
238 0.000003% 32,583,915 0.000004% 23,705,526

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTvZppVule4a_07xPErlSU-yVsOC-otyIakWvE9_9CQp5K55Vkqcefjsr0J9_EyRk5TyTWLHTccQeKR/pubchart?oid=1371017998&format=interactive

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=1032811684

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/house/
https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/house/

The MSM, CNN and LA Times admitted the GOP could keep the House in a Red Tsunami
http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/msm-red-tsunami/?fbclid=IwAR0C43VxE9xy7HPybwzd_cIBKdcTjDXh5f-UGB9-zD7icp-aGMIB9DTo_Dk

 
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Posted by on November 11, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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GOP House Forecast: 230R – 205D Red Wave?

Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2018

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GOP House Forecast: 230R – 205D? It’s possible.
And the GOP should win the Senate by at least 54-46 seats.

According to Real Clear Politics: 32 of 38 House seats that are currently too close to call are Republican. The GOP has 195 safe so they need 23 of 32 GOP seats to win the House with 218, even assuming they lose all 6 Democratic seats that are too close to call.

Assuming the polls are media-biased for the Democrats and the GOP retains all 32 seats, they will have a 227-208 majority. Maybe 230-205 if they pick up 3 Dem seats that are too close to call.

And that is a RED WAVE.

Assuming the 2-party Base Case forecast (50.9R-49.1D), the Repubs will keep the House by approximately 230-205 seats.

Note: The Dems need an approximate 58D-40R% lead in registered voter turnout to match the current RCP Generic Poll average (49.5D-41.9R). This is impossible.

Model Base Case Assumptions (2-party):
1) Latest Gallup % voter affiliation: 27R-28D-45I
2) Reg voter Turnout: 48% of Repub, 46% Dems, 44% Ind
3) Independents: Repubs win 52-48%
4) Equal 92-8% vote shares

Party-ID Turnout Repub Dem
Rep 27% 48% 92% 8%
Dem 28% 46% 8% 92%
Ind 45% 44% 52% 48%
Total 100% 45.6% 50.94% 49.06%
Votes 36,640 35,286
Turnout 
Vote
Rep Dem Ind Total Rep Dem
48% 46% 44% 45.6% 50.94% 49.06%
49% 45% 45% 46.1% 51.45% 48.55%
50% 44% 46% 46.5% 51.96% 48.04%
51% 43% 47% 47.0% 52.45% 47.55%
52% 42% 48% 47.4% 52.93% 47.07%
53% 41% 49% 47.8% 53.41% 46.59%
Generic Poll RCP Average House seats
Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep
2016 46 45.4 48 49.1 194 241
2014 43.2 45.6 45.2 51.4 188 247
2012 47.3 47.5 49.2 48 201 234
Average 45.5 46.2 47.5 49.5 194 241

Nate Silver calculates an 85% probability the Dems will win the House – if they win the popular vote by at least 5.7%.

Nate bases his calculation on the latest polls from Real Clear Politics which show the Dems winning 202 seats and the Repubs 196 with 37 too close to call.

As usual, Nate makes the simplistic assumption that the polls accurately reflect voter intent. And as always, he avoids mentioning the fraud factor.

Assuming the Repubs have 196 seats, then the probability P that they will win AT LEAST 22 of 37 races that are too close to call and win 218 seats is 1 in 6.
P= 16.2% = 1-BINOMDIST(21,37,0.5,true).

But…given the latest Gallup voter affiliation survey and assuming equal vote shares below, the Dems would need at least 56% registered voter turnout compared to just 46% for the Repubs to win by 52.86-47.14%. Anything less than a 10% Dem turnout edge means the Repubs would win the House.

So the question Nate must answer is this: is it logical to assume that the Democratic turnout rate would be 10% greater than the Repubs? I don’t think so. If anything, the Repubs are more motivated.

Gallup Party-ID Turnout Votes Rep Dem
Rep 27% 46% 19573 92% 8%
Dem 28% 56% 24711 8% 92%
Ind 45% 44% 31204 50% 50%
Total 100% 47.9% 47.14% 52.86%
Votes 75,488 35,586 39,902

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

 
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Posted by on November 5, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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What is the probability the Democrats will win the House?

Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2018

Nate Silver calculates an 85% probability the Dems will win the House – if they win the popular vote by at least 5.7%.

As usual, Nate Silver makes the simplistic assumption that the polls accurately reflect voter intent. And as always, he avoids mentioning the fraud factor.

Nate bases his calculation on the latest polls from Real Clear Politics which shows the Dems winning 202 seats and the Repubs 196 with 37 too close to call.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
Assuming the Repubs have 196 seats, then the probability P that they will win AT LEAST 22 of 37 races that are too close to call and win 218 seats is 1 in 6.
P= 16.2% = 1-BINOMDIST(21,37,0.5,true).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

But…Given the latest Gallup voter affiliation survey and assuming equal vote shares below, the Dems would need at least 56% registered voter turnout compared to just 46% for the Repubs to win by 52.9-47.1%. Anything less than a 10% Dem turnout edge means the Repubs would win the House.

So the question Nate must answer is this: is it logical to assume that the Democratic turnout rate would be 10% greater than the Repubs? I don’t think so. If anything, the Repubs are more motivated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=210218497

Generic Vote 
Gallup Party-ID Turnout Votes Rep Dem
Rep 27% 46% 19573 92% 8%
Dem 28% 56% 24711 8% 92%
Ind 45% 44% 31204 50% 50%
Total 100% 47.9% 47.14% 52.86%
Votes 75,488 35,586 39,902
Turnout scenarios
Rep Dem Ind Total Rep Dem
46% 56% 44% 47.9% 47.14% 52.86%
47% 55% 45% 48.3% 47.65% 52.35%
48% 54% 46% 48.8% 48.14% 51.86%
49% 53% 47% 49.2% 48.63% 51.37%
50% 52% 48% 49.7% 49.10% 50.90%
51% 51% 49% 50.1% 49.57% 50.43%
52% 50% 50% 50.5% 50.03% 49.97%

 

 
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Posted by on November 4, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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