RSS

Category Archives: Uncategorized

Las Vegas suspicious deaths: a probability analysis

Las Vegas suspicious deaths: a probability analysis

Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2017
Updated Nov.6, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

There have been seven suspicious deaths one month after the Las Vegas attacks .  Were they murdered? We don’t know. Therefore,  we calculate the probability over a range from 1 to 7  homicides.  http://yournewswire.com/lawyer-vegas-aldean-dead/

Given
1) N random individuals,
2) n homicides
3) R annual homicide rate
4) T years
E= N*R*T is the expected number of homicides

The probability of at least n homicides in T years is
P = 1- poisson (n-1, E, true)

Given N = 22,000 concert attendees, the probability of at least 7 homicides in one month is P = 1 in 100 billion.

These factors are used in the calculation:
N = 22,000 to 500,000  individuals (universe)
T = 1 month = .083 years
R =0.00005 (1 in 20,000)

For n = 7 homicides and
N= 22,000: P =1 in 100 billion (22,000 concert attendees)
N= 30,000: P= 1 in 11.8 billion
N= 50,000: P= 1 in 355 million
N= 100,000: P= 1 in 3.3 million
N= 200,000: P= 1 in 37 thousand
N= 500,000: P= 1 in 178

The following table displays probabilities of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 7 homicides for groups ranging from N= 22,000 to 500,000.

Probability of at least n homicides in one month in a random group of N 

 n N=22k N=30k N=50k N=100k N=200k N= 500k
1 8.8% 11.8% 18.8% 34.1% 56.5% 87.6%
2 0.40% 0.72% 1.9% 6.6% 20.3% 61.6%
3 0.01% 0.03% 0.13% 0.89% 5.2% 34.6%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.09% 1.0% 15.8%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.56%
Probability         
1 in
 7 100 billion 11.8 billion 355 mil 3.3 mil 37,000 178

Orville Almon (1) was found dead. He was the lawyer representing the Route 91 music festival and Jason Aldean, the singer onstage when the shooting began. Almon’s death, was described by local Nashville media as “seizure during sleep”.

Kymberley Suchomel (2) of Apple Valley, California, a shooting survivor who was found dead in her home, hours after her husband left for work.

Danny Contreras (3) was a Las Vegas local who had been contradicting the official narrative that only one shooter fired on the Route 91 Harvest festival crowd.

Dennis (4) and Lorraine Carver (5), a Las Vegas couple who survived the  shooting , were engulfed by flames in their car just meters from their home. They were speaking out about the lies being pushed in the official narrative .

John Beilman (6)  killed himself and his disabled daughter (7) in an apparent murder-suicide. He was wanted by federal agents following the discovery of a communications device in the hotel room of the officially identified shooter Stephen Paddock. .

Advertisements
 
8 Comments

Posted by on November 4, 2017 in Uncategorized

 

Deaths of Dealey Plaza JFK Witnesses: A Probability Analysis

Richard Charnin
Oct. 30, 2017

 Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

The 1977 House Select Committee on Assassination (HSCA) claimed that the London Sunday Times actuary’s probability calculation of 18 material witnesses deaths (13 unnatural) in the three years following the assassination (1 in 100,000 trillion) was invalid. The HSCA claimed that it was impossible to calculate the probability because the witness universe was unknown. This canard was essential to the coverup. No one did the math until I confirmed the actuary’s calculation in 2003

But there were many definable witness groups. Let’s take a look at the 600 estimated Dealey Plaza witnesses of whom 28 died suspiciously (14 were ruled unnatural: 5 homicides, 7 accidents, 2 suicides).

Assuming  600 Dealey Plaza witnesses, the probability of at least 14 ruled unnatural deaths during the period 1963-1978 is P = 1- poisson (13, 1.727, true) = 1 in 207 million.

But the nine accidents and suicides were likely homicides.
The probability of at least 14 homicides for 400, 600 and 1000 witnesses:
400: P= 1 in 750 trillion
600: P =1- poisson (13, 0.864,  true) = 1 in 3.7 trillion
1000: P = 1 in 4.8 billion

Sixteen Dealey Plaza witnesses testified at the Warren Commission, 3 were sought to testify at the Garrison trial, 3 at the Church Senate hearings and 3 at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).

JFK witness unnatural deaths probabilities have been posted for the following groups: Warren Commission, London Times actuary, Garrison/ Shaw trial, Church Senate Hearings, HSCA, Simkin Educational Forum, JFK-related 1400+ witness “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.

1 6311 Lee Harvey Oswald
2 6311 J.D. Tippit
3 6512 William Whaley
4 6606 Frank Martin
5 6608 Lee Bowers
6 6611 James Worrell
7 6701 Jack Ruby
8 6901 Charles Mentesana
9 6901 Buddy Walthers
10 7001 Merriman Smith
11 7008 Bill Decker
12 7101 Mac Wallace
13 7109 Roscoe White
14 7109 Cliff Carter
15 7309 Thomas E. Davis
16 7402 J.A. Milteer
17 7501 Allen Sweatt
18 7502 Ira (Jack) Beers
19 7505 Roger Craig
20 7509 Earl Cabell
21 7604 James Chaney
22 7608 Johnny Roselli
23 7703 Charles Nicoletti
24 7707 Ken O’Donnell
25 7801 Clint “Lummie” Lewis
26 7805 David Morales
27 7901 Billy Lovelady
28 8403 Roy Kellerman

Dealey Plaza witnesses: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=79

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=1

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/08/30/jfk-calc-a-spreadsheetdatabase-of-mysterious-witness-deaths/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/04/24/jfk-assassination-a-probability-analysis-of-warren-commission-witness-unnatural-deaths/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/01/27/jfk-a-closer-look-at-the-convenient-deaths-of-warren-commission-witnesses/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/jfk-witness-deaths-7-fbi-officials-due-to-testify-at-hsca/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/jfk-witnesses-called-to-testify-actual-vs-expected-unnatural-deaths-1964-1977/

Quick JFK Witness death Calculator:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=78

 
3 Comments

Posted by on October 30, 2017 in JFK, Uncategorized

 

Tags: , ,

Adjusted Pre-election polls in the True Vote Model indicate Trump won by 5 million votes

Richard Charnin
Aug.2, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

This analysis shows that although Clinton won the Recorded Vote by 48.3-46.2% (2.8 million votes), Trump won the True Vote.

Plausible adjustments made to nine pre-election polls in the True Vote Model are the core of the analysis. These polls had Clinton winning by 45.8-43.6% with 298-240 electoral votes: Ipsos/Reuters, IBD/Tipp, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Fox News, CNN, ABC, Gravis, LA Times.

Adjusting  Party-ID to the Gallup voter affiliation survey, Trump won by 43.4-43.1% with 306-232 Electoral votes. After allocating 75% of undecided voters to Trump, the de-facto challenger, the True Vote Model indicates that Trump won  by 48.2-44.5% (5.1 million votes) with 336 electoral votes . Historically, challengers won a solid majority (65-90%) of undecided voters when the incumbent was unpopular. Clinton and the Democrats were unpopular, especially after she stole the primary from Bernie Sanders.

View the Model
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945

Model Results
Pre-election poll averages based on:
Party-ID: Clinton 45.8-43.6
Gallup voter affiliation: Trump 43.4-43.1

Forecast Model (post-UVA)
Party-ID (9 Pre-election poll average):  Clinton 46.7-46.2
Gallup Party-ID: Trump 48.2-44.5

Trump Electoral votes: Pre and post UVA
Snapshot EV: pre-UVA: 306 (exact forecast); post-UVA EV: 336

Expected EV based on state win probabilities
Pre UVA: 289; post UVA: 351

Method
Calculate the average of 9 final pre-election polls (Party-ID and vote shares).
Calculate National Vote shares using Party-ID from

  • 9-poll average: 28.9I-38.7D-31.9R
  • Gallup voter affiliation survey: 40I-32D-28R

Gallup Voter Affiliation
1- Nov. 1-6: 36I, 31D, 27R (6 other)
2- Nov. 9-13: 40I, 30D, 27R (3 other)
Average (Election Day) : 38I, 30.5D, 27R (4.5 other)

Calculate State Vote shares
State Party-ID based on proportional change in National Party-ID from 2012 to 2016 Gallup survey applied to 2012 State Party-ID.
2012: 40.3D, 35.4R, 24.7I  
2016: 32D, 28R, 40I

Undecided voter allocation (UVA): 75% to Trump

Sensitivity Analysis
15 vote share/margin scenarios (pre-UVA) based on Trump % of Rep and Ind
Best Case: Trump 45.0-42.7
Base Case: Trump 43.4-43.1
Worst Case: Clinton 43.5-41.9

Electoral Vote Scenarios
Recorded EV = 306
Forecast  EV (pre-UVA) = 306
Forecast True EV (post-UVA) = 336
Difference between 306 EV and 336 EV due to MI (16) and NJ (14)

Expected EV
(based on state win probabilities post UVA)
EV = 351
Exp EV = sum [(P(i) * EV(i)], i= 1, 51
(P(i) = probability of winning state, EV(i) =  State Electoral vote
Margin of Error (MoE) = 2.5%

 
 

Tags: , , ,

Why isn’t congress asking these intelligence officers to testify?

Richard Charnin
July 24,2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Forensic studies of “Russian hacking” into Democratic National Committee computers last year reveal that on July 5, 2016, data was leaked (not hacked) by a person with physical access to DNC computers, and then doctored to incriminate Russia.

After examining metadata from the “Guccifer 2.0” July 5, 2016 intrusion into the DNC server, independent cyber investigators have concluded that an insider copied DNC data onto an external storage device, and that “telltale signs” implicating Russia were then inserted”.

https://consortiumnews.com/2017/07/24/intel-vets-challenge-russia-hack-evidence/

FOR THE STEERING GROUP, VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY

1 William Binney, former NSA Technical Director for World Geopolitical & Military Analysis; Co-founder of NSA’s Signals Intelligence Automation Research Center
2 Skip Folden, independent analyst, retired IBM Program Manager for Information Technology US (Associate VIPS)
3 Matthew Hoh, former Capt., USMC, Iraq & Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan (associate VIPS)
4 Michael S. Kearns, Air Force Intelligence Officer (Ret.), Master SERE Resistance to Interrogation Instructor
5 John Kiriakou, Former CIA Counterterrorism Officer and former Senior Investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
6 Linda Lewis, WMD preparedness policy analyst, USDA (ret.)
7 Lisa Ling, TSgt USAF (ret.) (associate VIPS)
8 Edward Loomis, Jr., former NSA Technical Director for the Office of Signals Processing
9 David MacMichael, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
10 Ray McGovern, former U.S. Army Infantry/Intelligence officer and CIA analyst
11 Elizabeth Murray, former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Middle East, CIA
12 Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)
13 Cian Westmoreland, former USAF Radio Frequency Transmission Systems Technician and Unmanned Aircraft Systems whistleblower (Associate VIPS)
14 Kirk Wiebe, former Senior Analyst, SIGINT Automation Research Center, NSA
15 Sarah G. Wilton, Intelligence Officer, DIA (ret.); Commander, US Naval Reserve (ret.)
16 Ann Wright, U.S. Army Reserve Colonel (ret) and former U.S. Diplomat

 

 
1 Comment

Posted by on July 24, 2017 in Uncategorized

 

Tags: , , ,

HOLISTIC DOCTORS DEATH PROBABILITIES AND MEDIA SHILLS

Richard Charnin
July 17, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

There were approximately 50 UNNATURAL deaths (murders, accidents, suicides) of HOLISTIC doctors in one year. Was this reported in the mainstream media? What is the probability?

Media shills like Snopes make the same mistakes as Warren Commission defenders. They don’t understand that calculating probabilities requires…
1) the number of UNNATURAL deaths – NOT total deaths.
2) UNNATURAL MORTALITY RATES: homicides (0.00005), accidents (0.00038) and suicides (0.00012). They are much lower than rates of “natural” causes.
3) the NUMBER of HOLISTIC doctors- NOT the total of ALL doctors.
4) knowing that MOTIVE for the deaths is NOT a factor in the calculation.

The Poisson probability function is based on the number of ACTUAL UNNATURAL deaths (n) and the EXPECTED number (E) in the group (N).
Probability = poisson (n, E, false)
E=N*R*T is based on the WEIGHTED unnatural mortality rate (R), population size (N) and the time period (T).

Since we do not know N, the number of holistic doctors, we calculate the probability assuming N=50,000, 75,000 and 100,000. The probability decreases as N increases.

Given: n= 50 unnatural deaths, R= 0.0002, T= 1 year, N is unknown.
Assume
N= 100,000: P = 7.63E-09 or P= 1 in 131,058,359
(E=20 deaths would be expected)

N= 75,000: P= 6.41E-13 = 1 in 1,559,298,094,732 (1 in 1.6 trillion)
(E=15 deaths would be expected)

N= 50,000: P= 1.49E-19 = 1 in 6,699,149,835,876,030,000
(1 in 6.7 million trllion)
(E=10 deaths would be expected)

https://www.healthnutnews.com/recap-on-my-unintended-series-the-holistic-doctor-deaths/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/05/24/a-probability-analysis-of-the-mysterious-deaths-of-125-scientists-and-75-bankers/
http://www.snopes.com/holistic-doctor-death-conspiracy/
http://reason.com/blog/2015/09/13/the-feds-murdering-alternative-doctors

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on July 17, 2017 in Media, Uncategorized

 

Tags: , , , ,

Probability Analysis of Unlikely Historical Events

Richard Charnin
7/12/2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Did you ever view a discussion, much less a probability analysis of  these events in the mainstream media?

Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical probabilities
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/05/26/conspiracy-theories-and-mathematical-probabilities/

Unnatural Deaths of at least 78 JFK-related witnesses from 1963-1978.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/05/15/jfk-witness-deaths-calculating-the-probabilities/

Seth Rich and 8 other DNC-related suspicious deaths
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/05/20/quick-mortality-probability-calculator/

Election Fraud: True Vote vs. Recorded
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/06/25/election-fraud-an-introduction-to-exit-poll-probability-analysis/

Suspicious Deaths of 75 Bankers and 125 Scientists
Suspicious Deaths of 11 Holistic Doctors in 3 months
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/05/24/a-probability-analysis-of-the-mysterious-deaths-of-125-scientists-and-75-bankers/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VdwJE_g5z3St3h2NbbXpau0DH7-g1y_98IKXRrt_9ao/edit#gid=496654748

Suspicious Deaths of 16 Microbiologists in 4 months
http://www.rigorousintuition.ca/board2/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=34755#p462796
http://911research.wtc7.net/post911/attacks/killings.html

10 Terrorist Attacks and Concurrent Drills
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/12/13/14991/

Cancer Deaths of 7 Latin American Leaders
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/03/14/latin-american-leaders-and-cancer-a-probability-analysis/

Mystery Deaths for various group size assumptions https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VdwJE_g5z3St3h2NbbXpau0DH7-g1y_98IKXRrt_9ao/edit#gid=252025167

No automatic alt text available.

 
2 Comments

Posted by on July 14, 2017 in JFK, Uncategorized

 

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Seth Rich/DNC Mortality Probability

Richard Charnin
Updated: 9/3/17

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

It’s not just about Seth Rich. Applied Mathematics indicates a virtual 100% probability of a cover-up.

Assume N = 10,000 DNC/Wikileaks related individuals:
– 8 suspicious deaths (5 homicides) in 3 months from April 2016.
The probability is 1 in 6.5 million.
– 15 suspicious deaths (11 homicides) in 16 months since April 2016.
The probability is 1 in 8 billion.
Assume N = 30,000: The probability is 1 in 145,000.

2016
4/18: John Jones, lawyer who defended Assange, run over by train.
May : Michael Ratner (Wikileaks NY lawyer), cancer.
6/22: John Ashe, UN official, found with barbell on neck.
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, died day he reported on Clinton Foundation (unknown).
7/10: Seth Rich, DNC staffer, shot twice in back.
7/25: Joe Montano,47, DNC, heart attack day before the DNC convention.
8/01: Victor Thorn, gunshot wound, author of books on Clintons.
8/02: Shawn Lucas, DNC process server, lethal combination of drugs.
Oct : Gavin McFayden (Wikileaks founder), cancer.
Nov : Monica Petersen, investigator of Clinton Foundation, child trafficking, found dead in Haiti.
2017
May : Peter Smith, GOP operative, found dead from asphyxiation in a Minnesota hotel room just days after talking to the Wall Street Journal about his efforts to obtain Hillary’s Clinton’s missing emails.
May : Beranton Whisenant, prosecutor investigating DNC, found dead on Hollywood, FL beach.
July: Klaus Eberwein, former Haiti Government official found dead in a motel room with a gunshot wound to the head. Was to testify on Clinton Foundation connection to Haitian earthquake charity.
July 20: Joseph Rago, 34, WSJ reporter, asked Russians for info on Clinton,  Obama critic, found dead.
Aug: Kurt Smolek, possible ties to PizzaGate and child trafficking ring in Cambodia, found dead in Potomac River. Up until 2015, Smolek worked for the State Dept in Cambodia as an OSAC Diplomatic Security Agent.

How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? How many Assange lawyers? How many Wikileaks founders? How many UN officials preparing to testify? How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?

What is the probability that in a random group of N individuals, n would die unnaturally in T years, given the group weighted average mortality rate R? The expected number of unnatural deaths is E = N*R*T.  The probability of n unnatural deaths is a function of  E and n: the larger the difference between E and n, the lower the probability.

The  Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. The probability of n homicides when E are expected is P = poisson (n,E,false).

You can run the spreadsheet calculator for any combination of N, n, R and T. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1htajNqLQrV9M4jmwWUN7MweelfN2ZCwr8KB-YeO7r10/edit#gid=0

Probabilities of n Homicides (rate =0.00005) in a Group of N over 68 weeks  

     Group  
n 10,000 30,000 50,000 70,000
9 0.00% 0.02% 0.65% 4.39%
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.21% 1.89%
11 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.75%
12 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.28%
13 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09%
  Prob =1 in    
11 7,774,323,682 143,934 1,691 133

The analysis assumes 11 deaths were  homicides. If they were a combination of 8 homicides,  1 accident and  2 suicides, we need to use the 0.00009 weighted average mortality rate. The probability is 1 in 14.5 million. This is conservative since the “accidents” and “suicides” were likely homicides.

Unnatural n  Rate
Accident    1  0.00038
Suicide       2  0.00012
Homicide  8  0.00005
Weighted 11 0.00009 

JFK WITNESS DEATHS

In 1964-78, there were an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesses, of whom 122 died suspiciously. Seventy-eight(78) of the 122 were officially ruled unnatural. Of the 78, 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths:P= 2.7E-31 (1 in a million trillion trillion).

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were likely homicides.

Of the remaining 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides based on the total number of expected deaths. Therefore, there were 85-90 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. For 10,000 witnesses, Probability P= 5.5E-47

<https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/02/25/executive-action-jfk-witness-deaths-and-the-london-times-actuary/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=3

Simkin JFK Index of 656 key individuals: 70 suspicious deaths
44 ruled unnatural (22 homicides, 11 accidents 11 suicides): P= 4.4E-41
Assuming 44 were homicides: P= 3.8E-66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=81

 
24 Comments

Posted by on May 20, 2017 in 2016 election, JFK, Uncategorized

 

Tags: , , , , , , , ,

 
Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis