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Mainstream Media and the Mathematics of Conspiracies

Mainstream Media and the Mathematics of Conspiracies

Richard Charnin
Dec. 31, 2017

Mainstream media pundits who called me a JFK / Seth Rich “Conspiracy Theorist”  avoided mathematical proofs in my blog posts, five books and the 84-page Moore complaint.  They also failed to mention that I was the only analyst in the universe to exactly forecast the electoral vote in each of the last three elections. Granted, a combination of skill and luck. My Blog  Posts: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ib27G_vDNtQDNLDR8rXiU2LJLCn7Hspd4g5SKtQw1CM/edit#

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/12/14/2017-alabama-true-vote-75-turnout-of-of-clinton-voters-but-only-45-of-trump-voters/

https://www.scribd.com/document/367999441/Moore-Voter-Fraud-Complaint

The True Pundit: https://truepundit.com/roy-moore-takes-polygraph-files-complaint-election-fraud-dems-cheated-finally-proof/ The election experts, who submitted affidavits in the complaint, agree that the irregularities in 20 precincts of Jefferson County alone are enough to reverse the outcome of the election. Richard Charnin, who holds three degrees in applied mathematics, and who has written four books on election fraud, calculates the probability of the election results in these precincts happening naturally is “less than one in 15 billion.”

INFOWARS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpmJf58mDMQ

CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/28/politics/roy-moore-analysis/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/28/politics/roy-moore-files-complaint/index.htm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAi_jcB0pks
Porter also defended the campaign against questions about one of the election experts that it cited in the court brief, Richard Charnin. Charnin has claimed there is a “less than one in 15 billion” chance that voter fraud played no role in the Alabama outcome. Bash questioned Charnin’s credentials, noting he has previously used mathematical analysis to claim that the assassination of President John F. Kennedy was a conspiracy.

The Hill: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/366689-moore-camp-warns-of-consequences-if-jones-is-certified-as-alabama-winner Moore and his campaign filed a complaint in the Circuit Court of Montgomery, Alabama, listing several allegations and called for “a new special election.” His complaint alleges that out-of-state residents had been allowed to vote and that election fraud experts had concluded through statistical analyses that fraud had taken place. One of the election experts Moore cites is Richard Charnin, who also posts about JFK conspiracy theories and the murder of DNC staffer, Seth Rich.

Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/12/28/roy-moore-asks-alabama-court-for-a-new-election/?utm_term=.367f6ed15013   Richard Charnin, who provided the court with an argument that there was just enough possible fraud to swing the election, claimed to have “mathematically” proved a conspiracy behind the assassination of John F. Kennedy. In 2016, Charnin alleged that mass election fraud had stolen key Democratic primaries from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), to the benefit of eventual nominee Hillary Clinton.

NPR: https://www.npr.org/2017/12/28/574222257/fact-check-where-roy-moores-voter-fraud-claims-fall-flat  Richard Charnin, one of those so-called experts, is a well-known conspiracy theorist whose blog contains sections about the John F. Kennedy assassination and claims that Trump won the popular vote in the 2016 election — even though he in fact lost it by almost 3 million votes.

LAW AND CRIME: https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/in-effort-to-delay-vote-certification-roy-moore-uses-election-expert-who-is-jfk-and-seth-rich-conspiracy-theorist/ Nearly three weeks have passed, and Moore has still refused to concede to Democrat Doug Jones who won the election by more than 20,000 votes. The Alabama Secretary of State is expected to certify the election results on Thursday (and says he plans to despite the complaint). The complaint, filed in Alabama state court, also called for a new election. However, probably most entertaining (troubling? frightening?), is that in the complaint, Moore’s attorneys attach several affidavits from so-called election experts including Richard Charnin, who calculated that the probability of the elections results in these precincts happening naturally is ‘less than one in 15 billion.”

RAW STORY: https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/roy-moores-voter-fraud-expert-is-a-notorious-crank-who-says-he-mathematically-proved-plot-to-kill-jfk/ Richard Charnin, the purported “expert” in voter fraud who has been cited by the Roy Moore campaign to claim that Democrat Doug Jones did not legitimately win this month’s Alabama Senate special election, is a notorious conspiracy theorist who has claimed that he has “mathematically proved” that there was a vast conspiracy to assassinate former President John F. Kennedy. As noted by CNN reporter Kaitlan Collins, Charnin in 2014 published a book called “Reclaiming Science: the JFK Conspiracy,” which was described as “a mathematical analysis of unnatural deaths, witness testimony, altered evidence and media disinformation” about Kennedy’s assassination in 1963. In essence, the book examines purportedly “unnatural” deaths of key people related to the supposed assassination plot — and concludes that it’s mathematically impossible for their deaths to be a coincidence. “Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy is based on a statistical analysis of unnatural JFK-related deaths, Dealey Plaza eyewitness observations, medical, acoustic and photographic evidence,” reads the book’s description. “Warren Commission defenders and the Corporate Media avoid the evidence and continue to promote the bogus Single Bullet Theory and that Oswald was the lone shooter, despite overwhelming evidence that he was not on the 6th floor of the Texas Book Depository.” Collins says that Charnin has written extensively on his personal blog about both voter fraud conspiracies and has also calculated the probabilities that the DNC had former staffer Seth Rich murdered to cover up his ties to WikiLeaks.

The Telegraph-UK: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/28/roy-moore-launches-legal-challenge-against-alabama-election/” It cited “irregularities in 20 precincts” of the state’s Jefferson County which it said were “enough to reverse the outcome of the election,” quoting the views of conspiracy theorist Richard Charnin who claims the 2004 presidential election and 2016 Democratic primary were also rigged”.

NY Magazine: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/12/roy-moore-files-lawsuit-alleging-voter-fraud-in-alabama-race.html One of the experts Moore cites is Richard Charnin, who says the probability that the election results are accurate is “less than one in 15 billion.” Charnin runs a blog devoted to “JFK conspiracy and systemic election fraud analysis,” and is known for pushing dubious voter-fraud claims, like that George W. Bush stole the 2004 election from John Kerry, Bernie Sanders is the rightful winner of the 2016 Democratic primary, and President Trump actually beat Hillary Clinton in the popular vote, not just the Electoral College.

Newsweek: http://www.newsweek.com/moore-election-lawsuit-alabama-fraud-761364Since the election, which marked the first time a Republican had lost a Senate election in Alabama in over two decades, Moore has refused to concede to Jones. The suit cites three “national election integrity experts” who state fraud occurred during December 12’s special election and includes Moore’s claim of passing a polygraph test to prove he did not commit any acts of sexual misconduct or molestation with teenage girls, according to AL.com. “This is not a Republican or Democrat issue as election integrity should matter to everyone,” Moore said according to AL.com. “We call on Secretary of State Merrill to delay certification until there is a thorough investigation of what three independent election experts agree took place: election fraud sufficient to overturn the outcome of the election.”

New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/us/politics/roy-moore-block-election.htmlIt was not immediately clear when a judge would consider Mr. Moore’s complaint or the affidavits from several people his campaign described as experts in elections; To support his arguments, Mr. Moore included affidavits from several people his campaign described as experts in elections; one has claimed to have “mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate” President John F. Kennedy. (Mr. Moore has himself indulged in conspiracy theories, including that former President Barack Obama was not born in the United States.)

BBC: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42501154Mr Moore’s lawsuit alleges that there were voting irregularities in 20 precincts and calls for a fraud investigation and a new election. One of the election experts cited in the suit is Richard Charnin, a conspiracy theorist who also claims there was widespread voter fraud against Donald Trump in the presidential election. Mr Moore’s lawyer said the purpose of the complaint was to “preserve evidence of potential election fraud and to postpone the certification of Alabama’s Special Election by Secretary of State John Merrill until a thorough investigation of potential election fraud, that improperly altered the outcome of this election”.

NBC: https://www-nbcnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/amp/roy-moore-alleges-voter-fraud-files-challenge-election-defeat-n833041?amp_js_v=0.1 The statement gives few details of the purported irregularities, which it says were substantiated “with a reasonable degree of statistical and mathematical certainty” by three election experts.The statement identifies only one of the experts, Richard Charnin, whom it quotes as saying the probability that the official election results were accurate was “less than one in 15 billion.” Charnin, who says he has three degrees in applied mathematics, is a prominent figure among believers that the assassination of President John F. Kennedy was the result of a conspiracy. He has also argued that the Republicans stole the 2004 presidential election and that Hillary Clinton stole the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.

The Hill: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/366689-moore-camp-warns-of-consequences-if-jones-is-certified-as-alabama-winner Porter also defended the campaign against questions about one of the election experts that it cited in the court brief, Richard Charnin. Charnin has claimed there is a “less than one in 15 billion” chance that voter fraud played no role in the Alabama outcome. Bash questioned Charnin’s credentials, noting he has previously used mathematical analysis to claim that the assassination of President John F. Kennedy was a conspiracy.

NY DAILY NEWS: http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/picture-democracy-ballot-images-article-1.3724556 Roy Moore tried and failed to challenge the outcome of the U.S. Senate special election where he was bested by Democrat Doug Jones. We are grateful that Alabamians rejected Republican Moore, with his bigoted views and documented history of attempts to seduce teen girls, won’t be in the Senate. But count us disappointed that Moore’s ex-colleagues on the Alabama Supreme Court denied him fair opportunity to prove his cockamamie claim that rampant voter fraud denied him so many votes that he should have beaten Jones instead of losing by around 22,000 votes.

THE ATLANTIC: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/roy-moores-last-gasp/549332/Most of the lawsuit focused on what Moore’s attorneys described as electoral anomalies that raise questions about the 22,000-vote margin. They include “expert testimony” from a Florida-based elections analyst named Richard Charnin who wrote in an accompanying letter that there was “overwhelming statistical proof of fraud in Jefferson County.” (Charnin is perhaps best known, to the extent that he is, as a positor of conspiracy theories about the assassination of John F. Kennedy and, more recently, the 2016 murder of Seth Rich, a staffer with the Democratic National Committee.) Moore alleges that in Republican precincts in the county, there was an unexplained drop-off in votes by people who checked off a straight party-line vote for the GOP but did not vote for Moore.

THE GUARDIAN: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/28/alabama-election-roy-moore-files-lawsuit-to-stop-doug-jones-certification The filing cited “experts” including Richard Charnin, who has a blog dedicated to John F Kennedy conspiracy theories and has also floated conspiracies over the 2016 death of Seth Rich, a Democratic National Committee staffer. Another cited authority, James Condit Jr, has espoused antisemitic views and promoted conspiracies about a supposed Jewish takeover of the Vatican.

DAILY DOT: https://www.dailydot.com/layer8/roy-moore-election-challenge/  Richard Charnin, who prognosticates elections online, said he saw enough evidence to say that the election could have been swung illegally for Doug Jones. Charnin’s previous claim to fame is that he thinks it’s mathematically proven that John F. Kennedy’s assassination was a conspiracy. “I mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate JFK – and cover it up,” Charnin says on his website. “JFK Calc is a spreadsheet database of suspicious and unnatural witness deaths and other statistical anomalies. Many witnesses who were called to testify in four investigations died unnaturally. The probability is one in trillions – absolute mathematical proof of a conspiracy.

LAGNIAPPEMOBILE https://lagniappemobile.com/roy-moore-files-lawsuit-stop-election-certification/ All three experts submitted affidavits to the court along with Moore’s complaint, though only one was identified by the Moore campaign in its statement announcing the legal challenge. Richard Charnin is quoted as saying the probability of the election results in certain precincts in Jefferson County happening naturally is “less than one in 15 billion.” Charnin is no stranger to post-election controversy, though. He has a history of making similar claims after races won by both parties like the 2004 presidential election of George W. Bush and Hillary Clinton’s victory in the 2016 Democratic primary. According to the New York Times, Charnin has also claims to have “mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate” President John F. Kennedy.

 

NY DAILY NEWS: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/judge-denies-roy-moore-attempt-delay-alabama-senate-results-article-1.3723608 One “expert” named by Moore was Richard Charnin, who has claimed to have “mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate” President John F. Kennedy. A website run Charnin specializes in writings about election fraud and notes about JFK conspiracies. In a blog post from earlier this month, Charnin cites the “the FACT that the recorded vote is ALWAYS fraudulent” and claims that President Trump won the 2016 popular vote, which he lost by nearly 3 million. While Charnin calling the Alabama victory of Jones fraudulent is therefore not surprising, Moore’s camp said that a thorough investigation should be launched based on his expertise.

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Posted by on December 31, 2017 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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Las Vegas suspicious deaths: a probability analysis

Las Vegas suspicious deaths: a probability analysis

Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2017
Updated Nov.6, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

There have been seven suspicious deaths one month after the Las Vegas attacks .  Were they murdered? We don’t know. Therefore,  we calculate the probability over a range from 1 to 7  homicides.  http://yournewswire.com/lawyer-vegas-aldean-dead/

Given
1) N random individuals,
2) n homicides
3) R annual homicide rate
4) T years
E= N*R*T is the expected number of homicides

The probability of at least n homicides in T years is
P = 1- poisson (n-1, E, true)

Given N = 22,000 concert attendees, the probability of at least 7 homicides in one month is P = 1 in 100 billion.

These factors are used in the calculation:
N = 22,000 to 500,000  individuals (universe)
T = 1 month = .083 years
R =0.00005 (1 in 20,000)

For n = 7 homicides and
N= 22,000: P =1 in 100 billion (22,000 concert attendees)
N= 30,000: P= 1 in 11.8 billion
N= 50,000: P= 1 in 355 million
N= 100,000: P= 1 in 3.3 million
N= 200,000: P= 1 in 37 thousand
N= 500,000: P= 1 in 178

The following table displays probabilities of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 7 homicides for groups ranging from N= 22,000 to 500,000.

Probability of at least n homicides in one month in a random group of N 

 n N=22k N=30k N=50k N=100k N=200k N= 500k
1 8.8% 11.8% 18.8% 34.1% 56.5% 87.6%
2 0.40% 0.72% 1.9% 6.6% 20.3% 61.6%
3 0.01% 0.03% 0.13% 0.89% 5.2% 34.6%
4 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.09% 1.0% 15.8%
7 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.56%
Probability         
1 in
 7 100 billion 11.8 billion 355 mil 3.3 mil 37,000 178

Orville Almon (1) was the lawyer representing the Route 91 music festival and Jason Aldean, the singer onstage when the shooting began. Almon’s death was described by local Nashville media as “seizure during sleep”.

Kymberley Suchomel (2) of Apple Valley, California, a shooting survivor who was found dead in her home hours after her husband left for work.

Danny Contreras (3) was a Las Vegas local who had been contradicting the official narrative that only one shooter fired on the Route 91 Harvest festival crowd.

Dennis (4) and Lorraine Carver (5), a Las Vegas couple who survived the  shooting, were engulfed by flames in their car just meters from their home. They were speaking out about the lies being pushed in the official narrative.

John Beilman (6) killed himself and his disabled daughter (7) in an apparent murder-suicide. He was wanted by federal agents following the discovery of a communications device in the hotel room of the officially identified shooter Stephen Paddock.

 
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Posted by on November 4, 2017 in Uncategorized

 

Deaths of Dealey Plaza JFK Witnesses: A Probability Analysis

Richard Charnin
Oct. 30, 2017

 Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

The 1977 House Select Committee on Assassination (HSCA) claimed that the London Sunday Times actuary’s probability calculation of 18 material witnesses deaths (13 unnatural) in the three years following the assassination (1 in 100,000 trillion) was invalid. The HSCA claimed that it was impossible to calculate the probability because the witness universe was unknown. This canard was essential to the coverup. No one did the math until I confirmed the actuary’s calculation in 2003

But there were many definable witness groups. Let’s take a look at the 600 estimated Dealey Plaza witnesses of whom 28 died suspiciously (14 were ruled unnatural: 5 homicides, 7 accidents, 2 suicides).

Assuming  600 Dealey Plaza witnesses, the probability of at least 14 ruled unnatural deaths during the period 1963-1978 is P = 1- poisson (13, 1.727, true) = 1 in 207 million.

But the nine accidents and suicides were likely homicides.
The probability of at least 14 homicides for 400, 600 and 1000 witnesses:
400: P= 1 in 750 trillion
600: P =1- poisson (13, 0.864,  true) = 1 in 3.7 trillion
1000: P = 1 in 4.8 billion

Sixteen Dealey Plaza witnesses testified at the Warren Commission, 3 were sought to testify at the Garrison trial, 3 at the Church Senate hearings and 3 at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).

JFK witness unnatural deaths probabilities have been posted for the following groups: Warren Commission, London Times actuary, Garrison/ Shaw trial, Church Senate Hearings, HSCA, Simkin Educational Forum, JFK-related 1400+ witness “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.

1 6311 Lee Harvey Oswald
2 6311 J.D. Tippit
3 6512 William Whaley
4 6606 Frank Martin
5 6608 Lee Bowers
6 6611 James Worrell
7 6701 Jack Ruby
8 6901 Charles Mentesana
9 6901 Buddy Walthers
10 7001 Merriman Smith
11 7008 Bill Decker
12 7101 Mac Wallace
13 7109 Roscoe White
14 7109 Cliff Carter
15 7309 Thomas E. Davis
16 7402 J.A. Milteer
17 7501 Allen Sweatt
18 7502 Ira (Jack) Beers
19 7505 Roger Craig
20 7509 Earl Cabell
21 7604 James Chaney
22 7608 Johnny Roselli
23 7703 Charles Nicoletti
24 7707 Ken O’Donnell
25 7801 Clint “Lummie” Lewis
26 7805 David Morales
27 7901 Billy Lovelady
28 8403 Roy Kellerman

Dealey Plaza witnesses: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=79

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=1

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/08/30/jfk-calc-a-spreadsheetdatabase-of-mysterious-witness-deaths/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/04/24/jfk-assassination-a-probability-analysis-of-warren-commission-witness-unnatural-deaths/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/01/27/jfk-a-closer-look-at-the-convenient-deaths-of-warren-commission-witnesses/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/jfk-witness-deaths-7-fbi-officials-due-to-testify-at-hsca/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/jfk-witnesses-called-to-testify-actual-vs-expected-unnatural-deaths-1964-1977/

Quick JFK Witness death Calculator:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=78

 
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Posted by on October 30, 2017 in JFK, Uncategorized

 

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Adjusted Pre-election polls in the True Vote Model indicate Trump won by 5 million votes

Richard Charnin
Aug.2, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

This analysis shows that although Clinton won the Recorded Vote by 48.3-46.2% (2.8 million votes), Trump won the True Vote.

Plausible adjustments made to nine pre-election polls in the True Vote Model are the core of the analysis. These polls had Clinton winning by 45.8-43.6% with 298-240 electoral votes: Ipsos/Reuters, IBD/Tipp, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Fox News, CNN, ABC, Gravis, LA Times.

Adjusting  Party-ID to the Gallup voter affiliation survey, Trump won by 43.4-43.1% with 306-232 Electoral votes. After allocating 75% of undecided voters to Trump, the de-facto challenger, the True Vote Model indicates that Trump won  by 48.2-44.5% (5.1 million votes) with 336 electoral votes . Historically, challengers won a solid majority (65-90%) of undecided voters when the incumbent was unpopular. Clinton and the Democrats were unpopular, especially after she stole the primary from Bernie Sanders.

View the Model
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945

Model Results
Pre-election poll averages based on:
Party-ID: Clinton 45.8-43.6
Gallup voter affiliation: Trump 43.4-43.1

Forecast Model (post-UVA)
Party-ID (9 Pre-election poll average):  Clinton 46.7-46.2
Gallup Party-ID: Trump 48.2-44.5

Trump Electoral votes: Pre and post UVA
Snapshot EV: pre-UVA: 306 (exact forecast); post-UVA EV: 336

Expected EV based on state win probabilities
Pre UVA: 289; post UVA: 351

Method
Calculate the average of 9 final pre-election polls (Party-ID and vote shares).
Calculate National Vote shares using Party-ID from

  • 9-poll average: 28.9I-38.7D-31.9R
  • Gallup voter affiliation survey: 40I-32D-28R

Gallup Voter Affiliation
1- Nov. 1-6: 36I, 31D, 27R (6 other)
2- Nov. 9-13: 40I, 30D, 27R (3 other)
Average (Election Day) : 38I, 30.5D, 27R (4.5 other)

Calculate State Vote shares
State Party-ID based on proportional change in National Party-ID from 2012 to 2016 Gallup survey applied to 2012 State Party-ID.
2012: 40.3D, 35.4R, 24.7I  
2016: 32D, 28R, 40I

Undecided voter allocation (UVA): 75% to Trump

Sensitivity Analysis
15 vote share/margin scenarios (pre-UVA) based on Trump % of Rep and Ind
Best Case: Trump 45.0-42.7
Base Case: Trump 43.4-43.1
Worst Case: Clinton 43.5-41.9

Electoral Vote Scenarios
Recorded EV = 306
Forecast  EV (pre-UVA) = 306
Forecast True EV (post-UVA) = 336
Difference between 306 EV and 336 EV due to MI (16) and NJ (14)

Expected EV
(based on state win probabilities post UVA)
EV = 351
Exp EV = sum [(P(i) * EV(i)], i= 1, 51
(P(i) = probability of winning state, EV(i) =  State Electoral vote
Margin of Error (MoE) = 2.5%

 
 

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Why isn’t congress asking these intelligence officers to testify?

Richard Charnin
July 24,2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Forensic studies of “Russian hacking” into Democratic National Committee computers last year reveal that on July 5, 2016, data was leaked (not hacked) by a person with physical access to DNC computers, and then doctored to incriminate Russia.

After examining metadata from the “Guccifer 2.0” July 5, 2016 intrusion into the DNC server, independent cyber investigators have concluded that an insider copied DNC data onto an external storage device, and that “telltale signs” implicating Russia were then inserted”.

https://consortiumnews.com/2017/07/24/intel-vets-challenge-russia-hack-evidence/

FOR THE STEERING GROUP, VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY

1 William Binney, former NSA Technical Director for World Geopolitical & Military Analysis; Co-founder of NSA’s Signals Intelligence Automation Research Center
2 Skip Folden, independent analyst, retired IBM Program Manager for Information Technology US (Associate VIPS)
3 Matthew Hoh, former Capt., USMC, Iraq & Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan (associate VIPS)
4 Michael S. Kearns, Air Force Intelligence Officer (Ret.), Master SERE Resistance to Interrogation Instructor
5 John Kiriakou, Former CIA Counterterrorism Officer and former Senior Investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
6 Linda Lewis, WMD preparedness policy analyst, USDA (ret.)
7 Lisa Ling, TSgt USAF (ret.) (associate VIPS)
8 Edward Loomis, Jr., former NSA Technical Director for the Office of Signals Processing
9 David MacMichael, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
10 Ray McGovern, former U.S. Army Infantry/Intelligence officer and CIA analyst
11 Elizabeth Murray, former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Middle East, CIA
12 Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)
13 Cian Westmoreland, former USAF Radio Frequency Transmission Systems Technician and Unmanned Aircraft Systems whistleblower (Associate VIPS)
14 Kirk Wiebe, former Senior Analyst, SIGINT Automation Research Center, NSA
15 Sarah G. Wilton, Intelligence Officer, DIA (ret.); Commander, US Naval Reserve (ret.)
16 Ann Wright, U.S. Army Reserve Colonel (ret) and former U.S. Diplomat

 

 
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Posted by on July 24, 2017 in Uncategorized

 

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HOLISTIC DOCTORS DEATH PROBABILITIES AND MEDIA SHILLS

Richard Charnin
July 17, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

There were approximately 50 UNNATURAL deaths (murders, accidents, suicides) of HOLISTIC doctors in one year. Was this reported in the mainstream media? What is the probability?

Media shills like Snopes make the same mistakes as Warren Commission defenders. They don’t understand that calculating probabilities requires…
1) the number of UNNATURAL deaths – NOT total deaths.
2) UNNATURAL MORTALITY RATES: homicides (0.00005), accidents (0.00038) and suicides (0.00012). They are much lower than rates of “natural” causes.
3) the NUMBER of HOLISTIC doctors- NOT the total of ALL doctors.
4) knowing that MOTIVE for the deaths is NOT a factor in the calculation.

The Poisson probability function is based on the number of ACTUAL UNNATURAL deaths (n) and the EXPECTED number (E) in the group (N).
Probability = poisson (n, E, false)
E=N*R*T is based on the WEIGHTED unnatural mortality rate (R), population size (N) and the time period (T).

Since we do not know N, the number of holistic doctors, we calculate the probability assuming N=50,000, 75,000 and 100,000. The probability decreases as N increases.

Given: n= 50 unnatural deaths, R= 0.0002, T= 1 year, N is unknown.
Assume
N= 100,000: P = 7.63E-09 or P= 1 in 131,058,359
(E=20 deaths would be expected)

N= 75,000: P= 6.41E-13 = 1 in 1,559,298,094,732 (1 in 1.6 trillion)
(E=15 deaths would be expected)

N= 50,000: P= 1.49E-19 = 1 in 6,699,149,835,876,030,000
(1 in 6.7 million trllion)
(E=10 deaths would be expected)

https://www.healthnutnews.com/recap-on-my-unintended-series-the-holistic-doctor-deaths/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/05/24/a-probability-analysis-of-the-mysterious-deaths-of-125-scientists-and-75-bankers/
http://www.snopes.com/holistic-doctor-death-conspiracy/
http://reason.com/blog/2015/09/13/the-feds-murdering-alternative-doctors

 
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Posted by on July 17, 2017 in Media, Uncategorized

 

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Probability Analysis of Unlikely Historical Events

Richard Charnin
7/12/2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Did you ever view a discussion, much less a probability analysis of  these events in the mainstream media?

Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical probabilities
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/05/26/conspiracy-theories-and-mathematical-probabilities/

Unnatural Deaths of at least 78 JFK-related witnesses from 1963-1978.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/05/15/jfk-witness-deaths-calculating-the-probabilities/

Seth Rich and 8 other DNC-related suspicious deaths
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/05/20/quick-mortality-probability-calculator/

Election Fraud: True Vote vs. Recorded
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/06/25/election-fraud-an-introduction-to-exit-poll-probability-analysis/

Suspicious Deaths of 75 Bankers and 125 Scientists
Suspicious Deaths of 11 Holistic Doctors in 3 months
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/05/24/a-probability-analysis-of-the-mysterious-deaths-of-125-scientists-and-75-bankers/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VdwJE_g5z3St3h2NbbXpau0DH7-g1y_98IKXRrt_9ao/edit#gid=496654748

Suspicious Deaths of 16 Microbiologists in 4 months
http://www.rigorousintuition.ca/board2/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=34755#p462796
http://911research.wtc7.net/post911/attacks/killings.html

10 Terrorist Attacks and Concurrent Drills
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/12/13/14991/

Cancer Deaths of 7 Latin American Leaders
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/03/14/latin-american-leaders-and-cancer-a-probability-analysis/

Mystery Deaths for various group size assumptions https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VdwJE_g5z3St3h2NbbXpau0DH7-g1y_98IKXRrt_9ao/edit#gid=252025167

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Posted by on July 14, 2017 in JFK, Uncategorized

 

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis