Las Vegas suspicious deaths: a probability analysis
Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2017
Updated Nov.6, 2017
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There have been seven suspicious deaths one month after the Las Vegas attacks . Were they murdered? We don’t know. Therefore, we calculate the probability over a range from 1 to 7 homicides. http://yournewswire.com/lawyer-vegas-aldean-dead/
Given
1) N random individuals,
2) n homicides
3) R annual homicide rate
4) T years
E= N*R*T is the expected number of homicides
The probability of at least n homicides in T years is
P = 1- poisson (n-1, E, true)
Given N = 22,000 concert attendees, the probability of at least 7 homicides in one month is P = 1 in 100 billion.
These factors are used in the calculation:
N = 22,000 to 500,000 individuals (universe)
T = 1 month = .083 years
R =0.00005 (1 in 20,000)
For n = 7 homicides and
N= 22,000: P =1 in 100 billion (22,000 concert attendees)
N= 30,000: P= 1 in 11.8 billion
N= 50,000: P= 1 in 355 million
N= 100,000: P= 1 in 3.3 million
N= 200,000: P= 1 in 37 thousand
N= 500,000: P= 1 in 178
The following table displays probabilities of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 7 homicides for groups ranging from N= 22,000 to 500,000.
Probability of at least n homicides in one month in a random group of N
n | N=22k | N=30k | N=50k | N=100k | N=200k | N= 500k |
1 | 8.8% | 11.8% | 18.8% | 34.1% | 56.5% | 87.6% |
2 | 0.40% | 0.72% | 1.9% | 6.6% | 20.3% | 61.6% |
3 | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.89% | 5.2% | 34.6% |
4 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.09% | 1.0% | 15.8% |
7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.56% |
Probability | ||||||
1 in | ||||||
7 | 100 billion | 11.8 billion | 355 mil | 3.3 mil | 37,000 | 178 |
Orville Almon (1) was found dead. He was the lawyer representing the Route 91 music festival and Jason Aldean, the singer onstage when the shooting began. Almon’s death, was described by local Nashville media as “seizure during sleep”.
Kymberley Suchomel (2) of Apple Valley, California, a shooting survivor who was found dead in her home, hours after her husband left for work.
Danny Contreras (3) was a Las Vegas local who had been contradicting the official narrative that only one shooter fired on the Route 91 Harvest festival crowd.
Dennis (4) and Lorraine Carver (5), a Las Vegas couple who survived the shooting , were engulfed by flames in their car just meters from their home. They were speaking out about the lies being pushed in the official narrative .
John Beilman (6) killed himself and his disabled daughter (7) in an apparent murder-suicide. He was wanted by federal agents following the discovery of a communications device in the hotel room of the officially identified shooter Stephen Paddock. .