JFK: Sensitivity Analysis of Unnatural Deaths and Homicides

Richard Charnin

June 30, 2015

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The cover of * Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy* shows a graph displaying probabilities of unnatural witness deaths assuming 1500, 2000 and 2500 witnesses over a range of 0 to 50 unnatural deaths. Of the 122 suspicious deaths in the

*spreadsheet,78 were ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 4 unknown).*

**JFK Calc**The x-coordinate of the peak in each curve is the EXPECTED number of unnatural deaths given the number of JFK-related witnesses.

The graph illustrates the power of SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS to display how a target variable (the probability) changes as input variables change in value. In the * JFK Calc* spreadsheet, the calculation is given by the

*.*

**Poisson function**P= Poisson (n, E, false) where

n= number of unnatural deaths

E= expected number of unnatural deaths

N= 1500 = number of witnesses (the universe),

T= 15 years from 1964-78.

R= 0.000822= unnatural national mortality rate (unweighted).

E= N*R*T = 18.5= 1500*0.000822*15

Note: The applicable unnatural rate is the JFK-weighted rate: 0.000247. The true weighted probabilities are actually much lower than those given below.

**UNNATURAL DEATHS**

**The graph shows the probability of**

30 unnatural deaths; 1500 witnesses: 0.0034 (1 in 300)

40 unnatural deaths; 2000 witnesses: 0.0011 (1 in 1000)

50 unnatural deaths; 2500 witnesses: 0.0003 (1 in 3000)

**The probability of 78 unnatural deaths for**

1500 witnesses: 4.15 E-25 (base case: 1 in a trillion trillion)

2000 witnesses: 5.00 E-18 (1 in a 200,000 trillion)

2500 witnesses: 3.92 E-13 (1 in 2 trillion)

**HOMICIDES**

There are 34 officially-ruled JFK-related homicides in **JFK Calc**. A statistical estimate of the expected cause of death indicates that approximately 50 of 88 official accidents, suicides, heart attacks, sudden cancers and other suspicious deaths were actually homicides. Therefore, there were least 80 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths.

**Given the average 0.000084 homicide rate for 1964-78, the probability of**

34 homicides; 1500 witnesses: 1.4 E-30 (1 in a million trillion trillion)

50 homicides; 2000 witnesses: 3.7 E-46 (1 in a billion trillion trillion trillion)

80 homicides; 3000 witnesses: 6.7 E-75 (1/trillion^6)

80 homicides; 1500 witnesses: 3.7 E-98 (1/trillion^8)

**If we triple the average homicide rate to 0.000252, the probability of**

34 homicides; 1500 witnesses: 5.4 E-16 (1 in 2,000 trillion)

50 homicides; 2000 witnesses: 1.7 E-24 (1 in a trillion trillion)

80 homicides; 3000 witnesses: 5.0 E-40 (1 in a trillion trillion trillion)

80 homicides; 1500 witnesses: 1.3 E-61 (1/trillion^5)

JFK Calc: Sensitivity Analysis Tables

**SIMKIN JFK INDEX**

Of the 656 names, 66 deaths are suspicious, of which 42 were ruled unnatural (including 22 homicides).

**Unnatural deaths; probability**

42 1.65E-17 (1 in 60,000 trillion – base case)

45 9.72E-20 (1 in 10 million trillion)

50 1.21E-23 (1 in 80 billion trillion)

**Homicides; probability**

22 5.89E-24 (1 in 100 billion trillion – base case)

30 5.44E-36 (1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion)

40 2.63E-52 (1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion)

JFK Calc: Simkin JFK Index

**WARREN COMMISSION**

552 testified, 31 deaths suspicious, of which 16 were ruled unnatural (4 homicides).

**Unnatural deaths; probability**

16 4.91E-09 (1 in 200,000 billion – ruled base case)

18 8.81E-11 (1 in 100 billion)

21 1.43E-13 (1 in 7 trillion)

**Homicides; probability**

4 4.92E-03 (1 in 200 – base case)

10 3.77E-11 (1 in 30 billion)

17 3.11E-18 (1 in 300,000 trillion)

JFK Calc: Called to Testify

**DEALEY PLAZA**

20 Suspicious deaths: 13 unnatural, 14 testified at Warren Commission

Witnesses; Probability of Unnatural Death

300; 3.60E-10 (1 in 2.7 billion)

400; 1.06E-08 (1 in 90 million)

500; 1.36E-07 (1 in 7 million)

600; 1.02E-06 (1 in 1 million)

JFK Calc: Dealey Plaza

**HSCA – 1977**

Suspicious deaths of 7 FBI officials called to testify in 6 month period

Official cause of death: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents

FBI est.

called ; Probability

8 8.72E-18 (1 in 100,000 trillion)

20 5.22E-15 (1 in 200 trillion)

50 3.07E-12 (1 in 300 billion)

100 3.68E-10 (1 in 1 billion)

**LONDON SUNDAY TIMES ACTUARY**

Calculated a 1 in 100,000 trillion probability of 18 material witness deaths (13 unnatural) in the three years following the assassination (actually over 40).

Weighted average unnatural mortality rate: 0.000209

Witnesses; probability of at least 13 unnatural deaths

454; 9.83 E-18 (1 in 100,000 trillion)

600; 3.36 E-16 (1 in 3,000 trillion)

800; 1.25 E-14 (1 in 80 trillion)

1000; 2.00 E-13 (1 in 5 trillion)

1200; 1.89 E-12 (1 in 500 billion)

1500; 2.85 E-11 (1 in 35 billion)

2000; 8.76 E-10 (1 in 1 billion)

5000; 1.99 E-05 (1 in 50,000)

10000; 7.07 E-03 (1 in 140)

References:

Michael Benson: Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination 1400+ JFK-related individuals (97 suspicious deaths).

John Simkin: Spaartacus Educational JFK Index 656 JFK-related individuals (66 suspicious deaths).

Jim Marrs: Crossfire

Richard Belzer and David Wayne: Hit List

Craig Roberts: Dead Witnesses