Richard Charnin

Aug.2, 2017

**77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud**

**Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts**

**Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll**

**LINKS TO POSTS**

This analysis shows that although Clinton won the Recorded Vote by 48.3-46.2% (2.8 million votes), Trump won the True Vote.

Plausible adjustments made to nine pre-election polls in the True Vote Model are the core of the analysis. These polls had Clinton winning by 45.8-43.6% with 298-240 electoral votes: Ipsos/Reuters, IBD/Tipp, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Fox News, CNN, ABC, Gravis, LA Times.

Adjusting Party-ID to the Gallup voter affiliation survey, Trump won by 43.4-43.1% with 306-232 Electoral votes. After allocating 75% of undecided voters to Trump, the de-facto challenger, the True Vote Model indicates that Trump won by 48.2-44.5% (5.1 million votes) with 336 electoral votes . Historically, challengers won a solid majority (65-90%) of undecided voters when the incumbent was unpopular. Clinton and the Democrats were unpopular, especially after she stole the primary from Bernie Sanders.

**View the Model**

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945

**Model Results**

Pre-election poll averages based on:

Party-ID: Clinton 45.8-43.6

Gallup voter affiliation: Trump 43.4-43.1

Forecast Model (post-UVA)

Party-ID (9 Pre-election poll average): Clinton 46.7-46.2

Gallup Party-ID: Trump 48.2-44.5

Trump Electoral votes: Pre and post UVA

Snapshot EV: pre-UVA: 306 (exact forecast); post-UVA EV: 336

Expected EV based on state win probabilities

Pre UVA: 289; post UVA: 351

**Method**

Calculate the average of 9 final pre-election polls (Party-ID and vote shares).

Calculate National Vote shares using Party-ID from

- 9-poll average: 28.9I-38.7D-31.9R
- Gallup voter affiliation survey: 40I-32D-28R

**Gallup Voter Affiliation**

1- Nov. 1-6: 36I, 31D, 27R (6 other)

2- Nov. 9-13: 40I, 30D, 27R (3 other)

Average (Election Day) : 38I, 30.5D, 27R (4.5 other)

**Calculate State Vote shares**

State Party-ID based on proportional change in National Party-ID from 2012 to 2016 Gallup survey applied to 2012 State Party-ID.

2012: 40.3D, 35.4R, 24.7I

2016: 32D, 28R, 40I

**Undecided voter allocation (UVA): 75% to Trump**

**Sensitivity Analysis**

15 vote share/margin scenarios (pre-UVA) based on Trump % of Rep and Ind

Best Case: Trump 45.0-42.7

Base Case: Trump 43.4-43.1

Worst Case: Clinton 43.5-41.9

**Electoral Vote Scenarios**

Recorded EV = 306

Forecast EV (pre-UVA) = 306

Forecast True EV (post-UVA) = 336

Difference between 306 EV and 336 EV due to MI (16) and NJ (14)

**Expected EV **

(based on state win probabilities post UVA)

EV = 351

Exp EV = sum [(P(i) * EV(i)], i= 1, 51

(P(i) = probability of winning state, EV(i) = State Electoral vote

Margin of Error (MoE) = 2.5%