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2020 Election forecast (subject to change on Nov.2)

Richard Charnin: Oct.27, 2020

2020 Election forecast (subject to change on Nov.2)
Assume 150 million votes and a fair count

Party ID (Gallup voter affiliation): Rep 28%, Dem 27%, Ind 45%

Electoral Vote: Trump 356, Biden 182

Trump 51.7%, Biden 46.4%, Other 1.9%

Votes (millions) Trump 77.5, Biden 69.6, Other 2.8

Note: I forecast the electoral vote exactly in each of the last three elections. Will I do it again in 2020? I doubt it. It takes skill and luck.

Assumptions: Trump wins 10% of Dems, 93% of Repubs and 51% of Independents. In 2016 Trump had 8%, 89%, 46%.

Trump increases his a) Dem% due to gains among Blacks, Hispanics and Dem Walkaways, b) Rep% due to an energized base, c) Ind% due to fear of socialism.

Assume equal voter % turnout. This is conservative. Reps always turn out at a higher rate than Dems.

VotesParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem40,50027.0%89.0%10.0%1.0%
Rep42,00028.0%6.0%93.0%1.0%
Ind67,50045.0%46.0%51.0%3.0%
Total100.0%46.4%51.7%1.9%
Votes150,00069,61577,5352,850
Margin7,920

Sensitivity Analysis

Trump %Rep
Trump91.0%92.0%93.0%94.0%95.0%
% IndTrump%
55%52.9%53.2%53.5%53.8%54.1%
53%52.0%52.3%52.6%52.9%53.2%
51%51.1%51.4%51.7%52.0%52.3%
49%50.2%50.5%50.8%51.1%51.4%
47%49.3%49.6%49.9%50.2%50.5%
Biden%
55%45.2%44.9%44.6%44.3%44.1%
53%46.1%45.8%45.5%45.2%45.0%
51%47.0%46.7%46.4%46.1%45.9%
49%47.9%47.6%47.3%47.0%46.8%
47%48.8%48.5%48.2%47.9%47.7%
PctMargin
55%7.8%8.3%8.9%9.4%10.0%
53%6.0%6.5%7.1%7.6%8.2%
51%4.2%4.7%5.3%5.8%6.4%
49%2.4%2.9%3.5%4.0%4.6%
47%0.6%1.1%1.7%2.2%2.8%
VoteMargin
55%11,64012,48013,32014,16015,000
53%8,9409,78010,62011,46012,300
51%6,2407,0807,9208,7609,600
49%3,5404,3805,2206,0606,900
47%8401,6802,5203,3604,200

Model calculations https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=297739797

 
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Posted by on October 27, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Trump projected Vote share range and corresponding Electoral Votes

Richard Charnin

Oct.26, 2020

The following 2020 Election Model tables show six forecast scenarios of Trump vote shares and corresponding electoral votes. Trump’s margins range from a 5.6 million loss with 47.4%, a 3.4 million win with 50.4% and a 9.4 million win with 52.4%.

TurnoutParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem41,75327.8%90%9%1.0%
Rep43,29928.9%7%92%1.0%
Ind64,94843.3%47%51%2.0%
Share100%48.2%50.4%1.4%
Votes150,00072,22775,6352,138
Elect Vote538182356
Pop Vote52.4%51.4%50.4%49.4%48.4%47.4%
EVote382356356325291214
AK333333
AL999999
AR666666
AZ1111111111
CA
CO99999
CT
DC
DE
FL2929292929
GA161616161616
HI
IA666666
ID444444
IL
IN111111111111
KS666666
KY888888
LA888888
MA
MD
ME4444
MI161616
MN101010
MO101010101010
MS666666
MT333333
NC1515151515
ND333333
NE555555
NH444444
NJ14
NM555
NV666666
NY
OH181818181818
OK777777
OR
PA20202020
RI
SC999999
SD333333
TN111111111111
TX383838383838
UT666666
VA1313131313
VT
WA12
WI10101010
WV555555
WY333333

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=737914131

 
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Posted by on October 26, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Probability of 1,2 or 3 Covid deaths in a group of 200

Richard Charnin Oct. 25

What if you know 200 people in all age groups. What is the approximate probability P that 1, 2 or 3 died from Covid? Assume CDC reported deaths.

The probabilities are: P(1)=1/100; P(2)= 1/18,000; P(3)=1/5 million

The calculation function: P(n) = poisson (n, N*R*T, false) where n=number of deaths among N= 200 people, R=.00007= mortality rate based on the total U.S. population, T=.75 year (9 months).

Since 6% of Covid deaths had ZERO comorbidities, the approximate probabilities of pure Covid deaths would be much lower than above.

 
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Posted by on October 24, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

3rd parties in the 2016 election cost Trump the recorded popular vote.

Richard Charnin

Oct. 21, 2020

Consider 3rd party adjustments to the 2016 vote. Clinton won the recorded popular vote by 2.8 million 65.7-62.9 (48.2-46.1%). Trump won by 304-232 electoral votes.

Other candidates votes (millions): Johnson (Libertarian- 4.48); Stein (Green- 1.45); McMullin (Independent- 0.72). In 2015-16, McMullin was Chief policy director for the House Republican Conference.

Assume Trump would have won 90% of the Johnson and McMullin votes and Clinton won 90% of the Stein votes. Then Trump wins the popular vote by 68.6 million (50.34%) to Clinton’s 67.6 million (49.66%). Trump wins the electoral vote by 325-213 and these states he lost in 2016: MN(10), NH (4), NV (6)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1200059719

 
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Posted by on October 21, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Exposing the MSM myth that Biden leads Trump by 10% nationally

Richard Charnin

Oct. 18, 2020

The Lamestream Media keeps repeating the myth that Biden is leading Trump nationally by 10%. Let’s take a closer look at 10 polls. Biden leads the average by 50.7-42.1%. Average Party-ID: Dem 38.1%, Rep 33.4%, Ind 28.4%.

If we apply Gallup national voter affiliation weights (28R-27D-45I) in each of the polls, Biden’s 8.6% margin is cut to 3.2% (46.5-43.3%).

Republicans always turnout at a higher rate than the Democrats which would increase Trump’s total vote share. But if we cannot trust the MSM Party-ID weights, why should we trust the vote shares? Could they have also been inflated for Biden?

View row 20 in the 2020 Election Model: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/

 
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Posted by on October 18, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

YouGov poll: Biden leads 46-38%. After allocating undecided voters: Trump leads 49.6-46.8%

Richard Charnin

Oct. 15, 2020

YouGov poll: Biden leads 46-38%. After allocating undecided voters: Trump leads 49.6-46.8%

In 2016 Trump had 57% of whites but only 45% in the poll. Trump is doing better among Blacks and Hispanics than he did in 2016

YouGov2016 CensusBidenTrumpOtherUndec
White73.3%40%45%2%5%
Black12.4%75%8%0%5%
Latino9.2%52%24%0%18%
Other5.0%45%42%1%5%
Calc45.7%38.3%1.5%
Poll46%38%2%
Adjusted2016 CensusBidenTrumpOther
White73.3%40%57%3%
Black12.4%82%13%5%
Latino9.2%54%42%4%
Other5.0%45%47%8%
Adj Calc46.8%49.6%3.6%
Poll46%38%2%
RVParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem36.0%93%4%1%
Rep32.0%7%91%0%
Ind32.0%46%37%5%
Calc100.0%50.4%42.4%2.0%
Poll93.0%50.0%41.0%2.0%

LVGallupBidenTrumpOther
Dem27.1%96%1%0%
Rep28.7%2%95%1%
Ind44.2%32%42%6%
Calc100.0%40.7%46.1%2.9%
Poll96.0%51.0%43.0%2.0%
RVGallupBidenTrumpOther
Dem27.1%93%4%1%
Rep28.7%7%91%0%
Ind44.2%46%37%5%
Calc100.0%47.5%43.5%2.5%
Poll93.0%50.0%41.0%2.0%
 
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Posted by on October 15, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Effect of Party ID change in YouGov Poll to Gallup on Election share

YouGov vs. Gallup party-ID: Effect on YouGov Election forecast. Another example of how over-weighted Democrat samples skew the polls.

Party-ID: YouGov: Biden 45.2-38.5%; Gallup: Trump 42.7-39.0%. Approximately 6% undecided.

YouGov Party-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem37.6%89%1%0%
Rep27.4%2%92%1%
Ind35.0%32%37%4%
RV Calc100%45.2%38.5%1.7%
RV Poll100%46%38%2%

YouGov Gallup BidenTrumpOther
Dem27%89%1%0%
Rep28%2%92%1%
Ind45%32%37%4%
Adj. Calc100%39.0%42.7%2.1%

pg21 https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/1qb5j6pdqd/econTabReport.pdf

 
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Posted by on October 14, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Another rigged poll from NBC: Biden leading 53-39%.

Richard Charnin

Oct. 5, 2020

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

Another rigged poll from NBC: Biden leading 53-39%. As usual the poll overweights Dems and understates Trump’s shares.

Let’s compare the poll to my calculation which shows Trump leading using the latest Gallup voter affiliation survey. Trump had a recorded 8% of Dems in 2016. He will do better in 2020 since he is gaining black and Hispanic voters. He will also do better among Republican voters (he had 89% in 2016) and Independents (he won by 46-42%).

NBCParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Rep27%9%84%7%
Dem35%93%5%2%
Ind38%47%38%15%
Poll53%39%8%
RCGallupBidenTrumpOther
Rep29%7%91%2%
Dem30%87%10%3%
Ind41%42%46%12%
Poll53%39%8%
Calc45.3%48.3%6.4%
 
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Posted by on October 5, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Debate infection Probabilities for Democrats and Republicans

Richard Charnin

Oct. 5, 2020

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

Assume 100 people attended the Barrett nomination and/or the debate, 50 Dems and 50 Repubs. The probability of infection is 2%.

The probability that a) ZERO Dems would be infected is 0.364 and b) TEN Repubs would be infected is 1 in 21 million.

Binomial distribution
n1 inProb
02.750.364
12.690.372
250.186
3160.061
4690.015
53660.003
62,3920.000
718,6450.000
8169,9760.000
91,784,7530.000
1021,329,9700.000
nPoisson Prob (n of 50)prob
089.39%8.94E-01
110.03%1.00E-01
20.56%5.62E-03
30.02%2.10E-04
41 in 1 million5.90E-06
51 in 10 million1.32E-07
61 in 1 billion2.47E-09
71 in 100 billion3.97E-11
81 in 10 trillion5.56E-13
91 in 1000 trillion6.93E-15
101 in 100,000 trillion7.77E-17
 
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Posted by on October 5, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

What are the odds that FOUR Republicans, SIX Trump/Amy Barrett-related people and ZERO Democrats would be infected within a few days of the debate and the upcoming SC vote?

Richard Charnin

Oct.3, 2020

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

What are the odds that FOUR Republicans, SIX Trump/Amy Barrett-related people and ZERO Democrats would be infected within a few days of the debate and the upcoming SC vote?…. President Trump, Senators Ron Johnson, Mike Lee and Tim Tillis.

The following 6 were also infected:Rep. Louis Gohmert got the virus last month (he recovered with HCQ). Others include Bill Stepien, President Trump’s campaign manager; Melania Trump, first lady; Hope Hicks, Trump advisor; John I. Jenkins, president of the University of Notre Dame; and Kellyanne Conway, former top White House adviser.

Given: 7 million out of 300 million infected. The probability that FIVE of 250 Republicans would be infected in 1 week: P= 1 in 7.5 million where P= poisson (5, 250* 7/300* 1/52, false)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_House_COVID-19_outbreak#Amy_Coney_Barrett_nomination_event,_September_26

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/02/us/trump-vs-biden?fbclid=IwAR2qNJTfN2YdTJhQ0hTH3tprmeJteeT5kR4WE8pVZu57eoSTTfJLB7tOp_k

 
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Posted by on October 3, 2020 in Uncategorized