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Pre-election and National Exit Poll Categories vs. the True Vote

Richard Charnin
Jan. 13, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

This spreadsheet displays the average of nine national pre-election polls which were used as a basis for the Election Model forecast. Also included are National Exit poll categories with adjustments made to match the  estimated 48-45% Trump true margin (4 million votes). Therefore, he probably had at least 350 electoral votes, not the 306 reported. 

 Clinton won the nine pre-election polls by  47.5-46.0%.  Party-ID was 39D-32R-29I As the de-facto challenger, Trump won an estimated 65% of late undecided voters. He won Independents in the nine polls by  43.6-33.8%.  

Using the Gallup voter affiliation survey (32D-28R-40I),  Trump won the nine-poll average by 47.5-45.1%. 

Clinton won the Final National Exit Poll by 47.7-46.2%,  which closely matched the recorded vote shares. Party-ID was 36D-33R-31I 

Using Gallup and NEP vote share adjustments, Trump matched the nine-poll average by 48.2-45.3%.

All National Exit Poll crosstab categories were forced to match the recorded vote. Each crosstabs vote shares and weights  were adjusted to match the previously calculated True Vote.  The adjustments are not unique; other estimates could achieve a match.

Key points:
1. Pre-election polls over-weighted Democrats and underweighted Independents.
2. Exit polls over-weighted Democrats and underweighted Independents.
3. The Gallup voter affiliation party-id is the only such survey of the electorate.
4. All National Exit Poll categories are adjusted to match the recorded vote.
5. Trump won the True vote by an estimated 48-45%, a 4 million vote margin.

 
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Posted by on January 13, 2017 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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ANOTHER PRE-ELECTION AND EXIT POLL ANOMALY: WHEN DID VOTERS DECIDE WHO TO VOTE FOR?

Richard Charnin
Jan. 8, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

According to Real Clear Politics, 45.4% of those polled after Oct. 1 said they would vote for Clinton and 40.7% for Trump. Of those polled before Oct. 1, 42.4% said they would vote for Clinton and 39.2% for Trump – a net 1.5% discrepancy.

The National Exit Poll (which is ALWAYS adjusted to match the recorded vote) indicates that 26% of voters decided who to vote for after Oct. 1. Of these late deciders, 48% said they voted for Trump and 40% for Clinton. Of those who decided before Oct. 1, Clinton led by 51-45% – a 14% flip in vote margin.

In the 28 states that were exit polled (and forced to match the recorded vote) 51% of respondents who decided after Oct. 1 voted for Trump and 41% for Clinton. Of those who decided before Oct. 1, Clinton led by 52-44%, an 18% flip in vote margin.

The momentum was clearly in favor of Trump. So how do you explain the large difference in margins between the pre-election polls vs. the exit polls?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036252757

Decided after Oct.1     Decided Before Oct. 1  
    Clinton Trump Margin Clinton Trump Margin
  Real Clear Politics 45.4% 40.7% -4.7% 42.4% 39.2% -3.2%
  National Exit Poll 40% 48% 8% 51% 45% -6%
  Decided after Oct.1   Decided before Oct 1  
  Clinton Trump Margin Clinton Trump Margin
Avg 25.6% 38.1% 50.5% 12.4% 49.4% 37.0% -12.4%
Wtd 25.6% 40.7% 50.8% 10.0% 52.3% 44.1% -8.2%
OH 25% 37% 54% 17% 47% 50% 3%
NC 25% 33% 57% 24% 51% 47% -4%
NJ 25% 50% 41% -9% 55% 43% -12%
PA 24% 43% 49% 6% 47% 51% 4%
MI 26% 37% 52% 15% 50% 47% -3%
MO 29% 36% 52% 16% 38% 59% 21%
IA 26% 35% 53% 18% 47% 47% 0%
FL 26% 43% 50% 7% 49% 49% 0%
WI 14% 30% 59% 29% 49% 47% -2%
VA 23% 42% 48% 6% 52% 44% -8%
NV 11% 45% 40% -5% 49% 44% -5%
NH 29% 42% 50% 8% 51% 45% -6%
MN 29% 33% 51% 18% 51% 41% -10%
ME 31% 35% 51% 16% 51% 43% -8%
CO 22% 37% 48% 11% 52% 42% -10%
TX 24% 46% 47% 1% 44% 51% 7%
IL 30% 34% 71% 37% 66% 32% -34%
CA 29% 51% 42% -9% 67% 29% -38%
NY 26% 38% 60% 22% 67% 31% -36%
GA 20% 47% 55% 8% 45% 53% 8%
AZ 25% 40% 48% 8% 48% 48% 0%
WA 22% 46% 41% -5% 57% 38% -19%
UT 44% 17% 39% 22% 36% 52% 16%
SC 26% 39% 50% 11% 42% 56% 14%
KY 28% 27% 63% 36% 31% 67% 36%
OR 20% 32% 48% 16% 54% 38% -16%
NM 28% 37% 41% 4% 52% 40% -12%
IN 29% 34% 53% 19% 35% 61% 26%
 
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Posted by on January 8, 2017 in Uncategorized

 

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2016 Election Scenario Analysis

Richard Charnin
Nov. 23, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

This is an analysis of four election scenarios. 

1. Gallup Party-ID and True Vote Model (TVM) vote shares
2. Gallup Party-ID and National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares
3. NEP Party-ID and NEP vote shares
4. NEP Party-ID and TVM vote shares

It is a FACT: the Reported vote is NEVER equal to the True Vote. The pundits always brainwash the public into assuming that the Reported vote represents True voter intent. 

The National Exit Poll is always forced to match the Reported vote  (view Scenario 3).
NEP Party-ID is 36D-33R-31I.
Clinton leads Trump by 2.03 million votes: 47.7-46.2%.
Others (including Johnson and Stein) have just 6.1% combined. Stein has 1%.

The True Vote Model (Scenario 1) uses Gallup Party-ID: 40I-32D-28R.
Trump leads Clinton by 2.18 million votes: 45.7-44.0%.  How many of the Other 10.3% voted for Jill Stein? Surely more than 1%. Probably close to 5%.

It is clear that the third party vote is a key factor. Jill Stein had an implausibly low 1% share. Where did her votes go?  Compare Trump’s 2.18 million True Vote margin in Scenario 1, in which third parties had 10.3%, to his negative margins in scenarios 2 and 3 where third parties had 6-7%. The differential  indicates that Stein did better than 1%. Her votes were stolen.

Exit poll discrepancies: http://tdmsresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-Presidential-Election-Table_Nov-17.-2016.jpg

 True Vote Sensitivity Analysis: Calculate Trump’s vote margins over a range of his shares of Republicans and Independents.

 1. Gallup/TVM  Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 89% 9% 2%
Rep 28% 7% 90% 3%
Ind 40% 34% 44% 22%
TVM Total 100% 44.0% 45.7% 10.3%
Votes (mil) 133.26 58.69 60.87 13.70
2. Gallup/NEP   Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 89% 8% 3%
Rep 28% 8% 88% 4%
Ind 40% 42% 46% 12%
Total 100% 47.5% 45.6% 6.9%
Votes (mil) 133.26 63.33 60.77 9.17
3. NEP/NEP Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 36% 89% 8% 3%
Rep 33% 8% 88% 4%
Ind 31% 42% 46% 12%
Total 100% 47.7% 46.2% 6.1%
Votes (mil) 133.26 63.57 61.54 8.16
4. NEP/TVM Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 36% 89% 9% 2%
Rep 33% 7% 90% 3%
Ind 31% 34% 44% 22%
Total 100% 44.9% 46.6% 8.5%
Votes (mil) 133.26 59.82 62.07 11.37

True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis

Scenario 1 Trump % Rep
Trump 85.0% 87.0% 89.0% 91.0% 93.0%
% Ind Trump
48% 46.2% 46.7% 47.3% 47.8% 48.4%
44% 44.6% 45.1% 45.7% 46.2% 46.8%
40% 43.0% 43.5% 44.1% 44.6% 45.2%
Clinton
48% 43.6% 43.0% 42.4% 41.9% 41.3%
44% 45.2% 44.6% 44.0% 43.5% 42.9%
40% 46.8% 46.2% 45.6% 45.1% 44.5%
 Share Margin
48% 2.6% 3.7% 4.8% 6.0% 7.1%
44% -0.6% 0.5% 1.6% 2.8% 3.9%
40% -3.8% -2.7% -1.6% -0.4% 0.7%
 Vote (000)  Margin 
48% 3.5 5.0 6.4 7.9 9.4
44% -0.8 0.7 2.2 3.7 5.2
40% -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 -0.6 0.9

Summary Comparison (based on Party-ID)

Unadjusted Exit Poll   Reported Vote   True Vote  
Vote Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 48.4% 45.8% 46.1% 49.6% 44.6% 48.4%
Diff   -2.6%   3.5%   3.9%
OH 47.0% 47.1% 43.5% 52.1% 43.9% 51.4%
NC * 48.6% 46.5% 46.7% 50.5% 45.9% 46.6%
NJ 59.8% 35.8% 55.0% 41.8% 44.6% 46.4%
PA * 50.5% 46.1% 47.7% 48.8% 47.8% 45.8%
MI 46.8% 46.8% 47.5% 47.7% 45.3% 47.8%
MO 42.8% 51.2% 38.0% 57.1% 41.5% 51.7%
IA 44.1% 48.0% 42.2% 51.8% 41.1% 50.6%
FL * 47.7% 46.4% 47.8% 49.1% 45.9% 47.7%
WI * 48.2% 44.3% 46.9% 47.9% 48.2% 45.2%
Share of  Indep-endents       
Unadjusted Exit Poll   Reported Vote   True Vote  
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 47.3% 40.3% 39.2% 53.1% 36.1% 50.2%
Diff   -7.0%   13.9%   14.1%
OH 50.0% 34.0% 38.0% 52.0% 38.0% 52.0%
NC 44.0% 44.0% 38.5% 56.0% 35.0% 49.0%
NJ 67.0% 28.0% 51.0% 48.0% 36.0% 52.0%
PA 50.0% 43.0% 36.0% 56.0% 32.0% 53.0%
MI 32.0% 52.7% 35.0% 56.3% 45.0% 56.3%
MO 45.0% 40.0% 28.0% 62.0% 39.0% 45.0%
IA 42.0% 41.0% 35.0% 51.0% 35.0% 51.0%
FL 48.0% 43.0% 48.0% 50.5% 32.0% 53.0%
WI 48.0% 37.0% 43.0% 46.0% 43.0% x46.0%
 
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Posted by on November 23, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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Implausible: the WI Unadjusted Exit Poll

Richard Charnin
Nov. 16, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Trump won four key battleground states (FL, NC, PA, WI). Unadjusted exit polls indicate that Clinton won all four and had 302 EV. But statistical analysis indicates Trump very likely won the four states.

View the summary tables for 9 Battleground states below.

Clinton won the WI unadjusted exit poll  by 48.2-44.3%
Trump won the reported vote (party-ID) by 47.9-46.9%.
Trump won the reported vote (gender) by 48.4-46.6%.
The  CNN adjusted exit poll calculation did not exactly match the reported vote.

WI Reported Vote (CNN)
Trump wins: 47.9-46.9% (27,000 vote margin)
Calculated: Trump wins: 48.1-46.1%
Trump won Independents: 46-43%
Party ID: 35D- 34R- 30I

WI Unadjusted exit poll
Clinton wins: 48.2-44.3% (118,000 vote margin)
Clinton won Independents: 48-37%  (implausible)
Party ID: 35D- 34R- 30I

WI True Vote Model 
Trump wins 48.2-45.2% (45,000 vote margin)
Trump wins Independents: 46-43%
Party ID: 33.9D -32.6R -33.5I (derived from Gallup)

CNN National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
Clinton wins 47.8-47.4%
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I

True Vote Model
Gallup Party-ID:  32D- 28R- 40I (8% Party ID  advantage to Independents)
Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)
Trump wins the popular vote: 44.4-42.9% (1.6 million vote margin)
Trump wins the recorded Electoral vote: 306-232

True Vote: After Undecided Voter Allocation
Trump wins  48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the  Electoral Vote: 351-187

Unadjusted Exit Polls: http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

SUMMARY COMPARISON (based on Party-ID)

Unadj   Reported   True Vote  
Vote Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 48.39% 45.80% 46.14% 49.65% 44.57% 48.45%
Diff   -2.59%   3.51%   3.88%
OH 47.0% 47.1% 43.5% 52.1% 43.9% 51.4%
NC * 48.6% 46.5% 46.7% 50.5% 45.9% 46.6%
NJ 59.8% 35.8% 55.0% 41.8% 44.6% 46.4%
PA * 50.5% 46.1% 47.7% 48.8% 47.8% 45.8%
MI 46.8% 46.8% 47.5% 47.7% 45.3% 47.8%
MO 42.8% 51.2% 38.0% 57.1% 41.5% 51.7%
IA 44.1% 48.0% 42.2% 51.8% 41.1% 50.6%
FL * 47.7% 46.4% 47.8% 49.1% 45.9% 47.7%
WI * 48.2% 44.3% 46.9% 47.9% 48.2% 45.2%
         
% Share of Ind  Unadj   Reported   True Vote  
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 47.33% 40.30% 39.17% 53.09% 36.11% 50.22%
Diff   -7.03%   13.92%   14.11%
OH 50.0% 34.0% 38.0% 52.0% 38.0% 52.0%
NC 44.0% 44.0% 38.5% 56.0% 35.0% 49.0%
NJ 67.0% 28.0% 51.0% 48.0% 36.0% 52.0%
PA 50.0% 43.0% 36.0% 56.0% 32.0% 53.0%
MI 32.0% 52.7% 35.0% 56.3% 45.0% 56.3%
MO 45.0% 40.0% 28.0% 62.0% 39.0% 45.0%
IA 42.0% 41.0% 35.0% 51.0% 35.0% 51.0%
FL 48.0% 43.0% 48.0% 50.5% 32.0% 53.0%
WI 48.0% 37.0% 43.0% 46.0% 43.0% 46.0%

WISCONSIN

Unadj EP Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 35% 91% 7% 1% 1% 0%
Rep 35% 6% 90% 3% 0% 1%
Ind 30% 48% 37% 6% 2% 7%
Calc 100% 48.4% 45.1% 3.2% 1.0% 2%
Unadj 100% 48.2% 44.3% 2.0% 1.3% 4%
Votes (000) 3,014 1,453 1,335 60 39 127
Margin -118 -3.9%
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 35% 91% 7% 1% 1% 0%
Rep 35% 6% 90% 3% 0% 1%
Ind 30% 43% 46% 6% 2% 3%
Calc 100% 46.9% 47.8% 3.2% 1.0% 1%
Reported 100% 46.9% 47.9% 2.2% 0.7% 2.3%
Votes (000) 3,014 1,380 1,404 106 31 93
Margin 24 0.93%
True Vote Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 33.9% 91% 7% 1% 1% 0%
Rep 32.6% 6% 90% 3% 0% 1%
Ind 33.5% 43% 46% 6% 2% 2%
TVM bef UVA 95.2% 42.7% 45.7% 4.3% 2.3%
True Vote 100.0% 45.2% 48.2% 4.3% 2.3%
Votes (000) 3,014 1,361 1,452 131 70
Margin 90 3.0%

2016-presidential-election-table_nov-10-2016

 
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Posted by on November 16, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

Implausible: the NJ Unadjusted Exit Poll

Richard Charnin
Nov. 13, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Are we to believe the NJ exit poll?
Clinton won the poll by 59.8-35.8%, an 880,000 vote margin. 
Are we to believe she had 67% of Independents compared to 28% for Trump?

She won the recorded vote with 55.0-41.8%.
But the recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote. 
There is always a fraud factor.
The True Vote Model estimates Clinton won NJ by 50.7-46.4%

JILL STEIN HAD JUST 1%. WHERE DID HER VOTES GO?

CNN National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
Clinton wins 47.8-47.4%
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
CNN National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I 
Gallup party affiliation: 32D-28R-40I 

NJ Recorded Vote (CNN)
Clinton wins: 55.0-41.8% (486,000 vote margin)
Party ID: 43D- 27R- 30I 
Clinton won Independents: 51-38%

NJ Unadjusted exit poll
Clinton wins: 59.8-35.8% (879,000 vote margin)
Party ID: 43D- 27R- 30I
Clinton won Independents: 67-28% (implausible)

NJ True Vote Model
Clinton wins 50.7-46.4% (157,000 vote margin)
Party ID: 25.8D -15.7R -58.5I 
Trump wins Independents: 52-46%

National True Vote Model
Gallup Party-ID:  32D- 28R- 40I 

Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)
Trump wins the popular vote: 44.4-42.9% (1.6 million vote margin)
Trump wins the recorded Electoral vote: 306-232

After Undecided Voter Allocation
Trump wins  48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the True Electoral Vote: 351-187

 

New Jersey
Unadjusted EP Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 43% 86% 12% 1% 1%
Rep 27% 10% 82% 6% 2%
Ind 30% 67% 28% 3% 2%
Calc 100% 59.8% 35.7% 3.0% 1.6%
Unadjusted 100% 59.8% 35.8% 3.0% 1.4%
Votes (000) 3,663 2,190 1,311 110 51
    Margin -879    
    Margin -24.0%  
Reported Vote  Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 43% 86% 12% 0% 2%
Rep 27% 10% 82% 7% 1%
Ind 30% 51.0% 48.0% 0.0% 1%
Calc 100% 55.0% 41.7% 1.9% 1.4%
Reported 100% 55.0% 41.8% 1.9% 1.0%
Votes (000) 3,663 2,022 1,536 69 36
    Margin -486    
    Margin -13.3%
True Vote Model Party ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 25.8% 86% 12% 0% 2%
Rep 15.7% 10% 82% 7% 1%
Ind 58.5% 46.0% 52.0% 1.0% 1%
True Vote 100.0% 50.7% 46.4% 1.7% 1.3%
Votes (000) 3,663 1,856 1,699 62 46
    Margin -157    
    Margin -4.3%    

2016-presidential-election-table_nov-10-2016

 
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Posted by on November 13, 2016 in Uncategorized

 

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Implausible: 2016 National Exit Poll; Unadjusted NC Exit Poll

Richard Charnin
Nov. 13, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

JILL STEIN HAD JUST 1%. WHERE DID HER VOTES GO?

CNN National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
Clinton wins 47.8-47.4% (implausible)
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
CNN National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I (weighted to Dems)
Gallup party affiliation: 32D-27R-40D (weighted to Independents)

NC Recorded Vote (plausible)
Trump wins: 50.5-46.7% 
Party ID: 36D- 31R- 33I (weighted to Dems)
Trump won Independents: 56.5-38.5% (plausible)

NC Unadjusted exit poll (implausible)
Clinton wins: 48.6-46.5% Same Vote shares as recorded but..
Party ID: 36D- 31R- 33I (weighted to Dems)
Independents split: 44-44% (implausible)

NC True Vote Model (plausible)
Trump wins 50.5-46.6%
Party ID: 32.9D -24.2R -42.9I (weighted to Independents)
Trump wins Independents: 58.5-36.5% (plausible)

National True Vote Model (plausible)
Gallup Party-ID: 32D- 27R- 40I (weighted to Independents)

Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA) (plausible)
Trump wins the popular vote: 44.4-42.9%
Trump wins the recorded electoral vote: 306-232

After Undecided Voter Allocation (plausible)
Trump wins 48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the True electoral Vote: 351-187

NC Unadjusted EP Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 36% 91% 8% 1% 0%
Rep 31% 4% 94% 2% 0%
Ind 33% 44% 44% 9% 3%
Calc 100% 48.5% 46.5% 4.0% 1.0%
Unadjusted 100% 48.6% 46.5% 4.0% 0.9%
Votes 4.630 2.250 2.153 0.185 0.042
Margin -0.097    
    Margin -2.1%
NC Reported 2016
NEP Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 36% 91% 8% 0% 0%
Rep 31% 4% 94% 1% 0%
Ind 33% 38.5% 56.0% 5.0% 0.5%
Calc 100% 46.7% 50.5% 2.0% 0.8%
Reported 100% 46.7% 50.5% 2.1% 0.7%
Votes 4.630 2.162 2.340 0.097 0.032
Margin 0.178    
    Margin 3.8%
NC True Vote Model Adjusted Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 32.9% 91% 8% 1% 0%
Rep 24.2% 4% 94% 2% 0%
Ind 42.9% 36.5% 58.5% 3.0% 2.0%
True Vote 100.0% 46.6% 50.5% 2.1% 0.9%
Votes (mil) 4.630 2.156 2.337 0.097 0.040
Margin 0.181    
    Margin 3.9%
CNN Party ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 37% 89% 9% 2%
Rep 33% 7% 90% 3%
Ind 30% 42% 48% 10%
Total 100.0% 47.8% 47.4% 4.7%
Gallup Party ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 89% 9% 2%
Rep 28% 7% 90% 3%
Ind 40% 42% 48% 10%
Total 100.0% 47.2% 47.3% 5.5%
Model Gallup Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 32.0% 89% 6% 2% 1%
Rep 28.0% 5% 89% 3% 1%
Ind 40.0% 32.6% 43.9% 8.0% 5.0%
Total 94.6% 42.9% 44.4% 4.7% 2.6%
Total-100% 100.0% 45.4% 46.9% 4.9% 2.7%
Electoral Vote   232 306  
2016-presidential-election-table_nov-10-2016
 
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Posted by on November 13, 2016 in Uncategorized

 

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ELECTION MODEL VS. RECORDED VOTE

Richard Charnin
Nov.9, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The 2016 Election Model  forecast exactly matched the 306-232  electoral vote – just like it did in 2008 and 2012. But  Obama did much better in the True Vote.  Trump won the True Vote by  351-187.  View the post:  2016 Election Model Forecast

Final poll and recorded votes shares
Clinton 47.7, Trump 47.5, Johnson 3.3, Stein 1.0
Who believes Jill Stein had just 1.0%? Who did her votes go to?

Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA):
Vote………..Clinton….Trump…..Margin…..Evote
Model………..42.9%…..44.4%…..1.5%…….306
Model………..45.4%…..46.9%…..1.5%…….306 (adjust to 100%)
Recorded……47.7%…..47.5%…..-0.2%……306

75% UVA to Trump:
Model………..44.3%…..48.5%…..4.2%…….351
Trump had a 96% popular vote win probability given a 2.5% margin of error.

Election Model vs. National Exit Poll (Party-ID):
Trump wins the EM by 1.5%.
Clinton wins the NEP by 0.4% (forced to match the recorded vote). 

Forecast vs. Actual 

Election Model Gallup Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Democrats 32% 89% 6% 2% 1%
Republicans 28% 5% 89% 3% 1%
Independents 40% 32.6% 43.9% 8.0% 5.0%
Total 94.6% 42.9% 44.4% 4.7% 2.6%
Total-100% 100.0% 45.4% 46.9% 4.9% 2.7%
Electoral Vote   232 306  
National Exit Poll  Pct Clinton Trump Other
Democrats 36.5% 89% 9% 2%
Republicans 32.5% 7% 90% 3%
Independents 31.0% 42% 48% 10%
Total 100.0% 47.8% 47.4% 4.8%
Electoral Vote   232 306

Election Model: Track Record
Exact EV forecast:
2008: Obama 365
2012: Obama 332
2016: Trump 306

 But the recorded votes were fraudulent.
They won the TRUE VOTE by much more…
2008: Obama 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV
2012: Obama 55.2%, 380 EV
2016: Trump 48.5-44.3%%, 351 EV ( 75% UVA to Trump):

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president

 
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Posted by on November 9, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis