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JFK: Sensitivity Analysis of Unnatural Deaths and Homicides

JFK: Sensitivity Analysis of Unnatural Deaths and Homicides

Richard Charnin
June 30, 2015

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The cover of Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy shows a graph displaying probabilities of unnatural witness deaths assuming 1500, 2000 and 2500 witnesses over a range of 0 to 50 unnatural deaths. Of the 122 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet,78 were ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 4 unknown).

The x-coordinate of the peak in each curve is the EXPECTED number of unnatural deaths given the number of JFK-related witnesses.

The graph illustrates the power of SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS to display how a target variable (the probability) changes as input variables change in value. In the JFK Calc spreadsheet, the calculation is given by the Poisson function.
P= Poisson (n, E, false) where
n= number of unnatural deaths
E= expected number of unnatural deaths

N= 1500 = number of witnesses (the universe),
T= 15 years from 1964-78.
R= 0.000822= unnatural national mortality rate (unweighted).
E= N*R*T = 18.5= 1500*0.000822*15

Note: The applicable unnatural rate is the JFK-weighted rate: 0.000247. The true weighted probabilities are actually much lower than those given below.

UNNATURAL DEATHS
The graph shows the probability of
30 unnatural deaths; 1500 witnesses: 0.0034 (1 in 300)
40 unnatural deaths; 2000 witnesses: 0.0011 (1 in 1000)
50 unnatural deaths; 2500 witnesses: 0.0003 (1 in 3000)

The probability of 78 unnatural deaths for
1500 witnesses: 4.15 E-25 (base case: 1 in a trillion trillion)
2000 witnesses: 5.00 E-18 (1 in a 200,000 trillion)
2500 witnesses: 3.92 E-13 (1 in 2 trillion)

HOMICIDES
There are 34 officially-ruled JFK-related homicides in JFK Calc. A statistical estimate of the expected cause of death indicates that approximately 50 of 88 official accidents, suicides, heart attacks, sudden cancers and other suspicious deaths were actually homicides. Therefore, there were least 80 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths.

Given the average 0.000084 homicide rate for 1964-78, the probability of
34 homicides; 1500 witnesses: 1.4 E-30 (1 in a million trillion trillion)
50 homicides; 2000 witnesses: 3.7 E-46 (1 in a billion trillion trillion trillion)
80 homicides; 3000 witnesses: 6.7 E-75 (1/trillion^6)
80 homicides; 1500 witnesses: 3.7 E-98 (1/trillion^8)

If we triple the average homicide rate to 0.000252, the probability of
34 homicides; 1500 witnesses: 5.4 E-16 (1 in 2,000 trillion)
50 homicides; 2000 witnesses: 1.7 E-24 (1 in a trillion trillion)
80 homicides; 3000 witnesses: 5.0 E-40 (1 in a trillion trillion trillion)
80 homicides; 1500 witnesses: 1.3 E-61 (1/trillion^5)

JFK Calc: Sensitivity Analysis Tables

SIMKIN JFK INDEX
Of the 656 names, 66 deaths are suspicious, of which 42 were ruled unnatural (including 22 homicides).

Unnatural deaths; probability
42 1.65E-17 (1 in 60,000 trillion – base case)
45 9.72E-20 (1 in 10 million trillion)
50 1.21E-23 (1 in 80 billion trillion)

Homicides; probability
22 5.89E-24 (1 in 100 billion trillion – base case)
30 5.44E-36 (1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion)
40 2.63E-52 (1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion)

JFK Calc: Simkin JFK Index

WARREN COMMISSION
552 testified, 31 deaths suspicious, of which 16 were ruled unnatural (4 homicides).

Unnatural deaths; probability
16 4.91E-09 (1 in 200,000 billion – ruled base case)
18 8.81E-11 (1 in 100 billion)
21 1.43E-13 (1 in 7 trillion)

Homicides; probability
4 4.92E-03 (1 in 200 – base case)
10 3.77E-11 (1 in 30 billion)
17 3.11E-18 (1 in 300,000 trillion)

JFK Calc: Called to Testify

DEALEY PLAZA
20 Suspicious deaths: 13 unnatural, 14 testified at Warren Commission

Witnesses; Probability of Unnatural Death
300; 3.60E-10 (1 in 2.7 billion)
400; 1.06E-08 (1 in 90 million)
500; 1.36E-07 (1 in 7 million)
600; 1.02E-06 (1 in 1 million)

JFK Calc: Dealey Plaza

HSCA – 1977
Suspicious deaths of 7 FBI officials called to testify in 6 month period
Official cause of death: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents
FBI est.
called ; Probability
8 8.72E-18 (1 in 100,000 trillion)
20 5.22E-15 (1 in 200 trillion)
50 3.07E-12 (1 in 300 billion)
100 3.68E-10 (1 in 1 billion)

LONDON SUNDAY TIMES ACTUARY
Calculated a 1 in 100,000 trillion probability of 18 material witness deaths (13 unnatural) in the three years following the assassination (actually over 40).
Weighted average unnatural mortality rate: 0.000209

Witnesses; probability of at least 13 unnatural deaths
454; 9.83 E-18 (1 in 100,000 trillion)
600; 3.36 E-16 (1 in 3,000 trillion)
800; 1.25 E-14 (1 in 80 trillion)
1000; 2.00 E-13 (1 in 5 trillion)
1200; 1.89 E-12 (1 in 500 billion)
1500; 2.85 E-11 (1 in 35 billion)
2000; 8.76 E-10 (1 in 1 billion)
5000; 1.99 E-05 (1 in 50,000)
10000; 7.07 E-03 (1 in 140)

References:
Michael Benson: Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination 1400+ JFK-related individuals (97 suspicious deaths).
John Simkin: Spaartacus Educational JFK Index 656 JFK-related individuals (66 suspicious deaths).
Jim Marrs: Crossfire
Richard Belzer and David Wayne: Hit List
Craig Roberts: Dead Witnesses

 
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Posted by on June 30, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

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JFK: Analysis of Suspicious Witness Deaths in Simkin’s JFK Index

JFK: Analysis of Suspicious Witness Deaths in Simkin’s JFK Index

Richard Charnin
Updated: June 27, 2015
Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.
JFK Blog Posts
https://twitter.com/richardcharnin
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

This is a summary update of a previous post on John Simkin’s Index of 656 JFK-related individuals. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/12/25/jfk-related-unnatural-and-suspicious-deaths-in-the-jfk-calc-spreadsheet-and-simkins-jfk-index/

Simkin’s Index: http://spartacus-educational.com/JFKindex.htm

The list is in JFK Calc for reference and probability calculations.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=81

Sixty-six (66) individuals in the JFK Index are also included among 122 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet. Of the 122 suspicious deaths in JFK Calc, approximately 67 were called to testify in four investigations. The fact that both lists contain more than 60 names is proof that they are relevant. Naysayers can no longer make the ridiculous argument that they are not JFK-related.

Of the 66 suspicious deaths in Simkin’s index, 42 were OFFICIALLY RULED UNNATURAL, including 22 homicides. Only 8 unnatural deaths and ONE homicide would be expected in a random group of 656 from 1964-78 based on historical mortality rates.

The probability of 22 homicides among the 656 is 1 in 150 billion trillion (6.4E-24). If we triple the 0.000084 national homicide rate, the probability of 22 homicides is higher: 1 in 23 trillion (4.3E-14).

But these probabilities are too HIGH. Statistical expectation indicates that of the 45 suspicious deaths (officially ruled accidents, suicides, heart attacks and sudden cancers) approximately 26 were HOMICIDES. So there were approximately 48 homicides among the 66 suspicious deaths.

The probability of 48 homicides from 1964-78 among the 656 in the JFK Index is 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion!

The Simkin JFK Index of 656 key individuals consists of 4 categories.
Suspicious deaths include:
10 of 190 Important Figures;
15 of 86 Important Witnesses;
5 of 206 Investigators, Researchers and Journalists;
36 of 174 Possible Conspirators

 
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Posted by on June 12, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

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Why Criminal Investigation(s) Must Look At Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
June 8, 2015

JFK Blog Posts
Twitter Chronological Links
Look inside the book:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

This is an excellent article written by a Wisconsin blog which summarizes my analysis of the 2012 recall election and links to a number of related posts. http://voicesnewspaper.blogspot.com/2013/10/criminal-investigations-must-look-at_24.html

From the article:
“Remember how during Scott Walker’s historic 2012 recall election, all day the media across the Badger State proclaimed the race “too close to call” and told viewers/listeners to prepare for a long night?

Remember how candidate Tom Barrett conceded defeat while people in Milwaukee were still in line to vote? Doesn’t make any sense, does it?

Does it make any sense that Scott Walker won a high-intensity/turnout election in June by about 9 percentage points and then within 5 months, Obama won a high-intensity/turnout election in November by about 9 points?

Friends – that is almost a 20 point swing at the top of a statewide race within a few months – sounds like fiction, doesn’t it?”

read more at the link….

 
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Posted by on June 8, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

Oswald in the Doorway: Why is the preponderance of the evidence dismissed?

Originally posted on Richard Charnin's Blog:

Oswald in the Doorway: Why is the preponderance of the evidence dismissed?

Richard Charnin
May 30, 2015

JFK Blog Posts
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Look inside the book:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

Why is it so important for the naysayers to insist that LHO was not in front? Is it to maintain a sliver of doubt that maybe Oswald did actually run from the 6th floor to the 2nd floor as the Warren Commission wants us all to believe?

The answer is simple. It would finally close the book on the framing of Oswald. The Parlor game would be over. JFK researchers would have to change the focus of their analysis. There would no longer be any doubt. It would be 100% proof of the BIG LIE.

One might say that it’s a moot point since the evidence is clear that Oswald was on the first floor at the time of…

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Posted by on June 2, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

Oswald in the Doorway: Why is the preponderance of the evidence dismissed?

Oswald in the Doorway: Why is the preponderance of the evidence dismissed?

Richard Charnin
May 30, 2015

JFK Blog Posts
Twitter Chronological Links
Look inside the book:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

Why is it so important for the naysayers to insist that LHO was not in front? Is it to maintain a sliver of doubt that maybe Oswald did actually run from the 6th floor to the 2nd floor as the Warren Commission wants us all to believe?

The answer is simple. It would finally close the book on the framing of Oswald. The Parlor game would be over. JFK researchers would have to change the focus of their analysis. There would no longer be any doubt. It would be 100% proof of the BIG LIE.

One might say that it’s a moot point since the evidence is clear that Oswald was on the first floor at the time of the shooting – but may have gone up to the second floor lunchroom. So why the big fuss? Well, only a fool takes anything in the Warren Report seriously. It sure makes you wonder.

These are facts that no one has discussed. Namely the testimony of Lovelady and Frazier that Lovelady was standing on the steps in front of Frazier and Sarah Stanton. If you believe their testimony, then it must be Oswald on the TOP level (the first floor entrance).

There is ZERO evidence that Lovelady was Doorman. ALL of the evidence (including the pixel analysis of Doorman’s shirt) points to Oswald as Doorman standing on the first floor (TOP level) while LOVELADY WAS STANDING IN FRONT A FEW STEPS BELOW FRAZIER who was standing to the left of Oswald on the TOP level.

The testimony of Frazier and Lovelady has been hidden in plain sight. It is proof that LHO was standing at the entrance to the Doorway since Lovelady was standing on the STEPS in front of Frazier; IT’S THE CLINCHER. HOW COME THIS HAS NOT BEEN A POINT OF DEBATE IN 51 YEARS?

THIS IS ABOUT CLOSING THE BOOK ON ALL THESE LIES:
1) OSWALD SHOT JFK FROM THE 6 FLOOR OF THE TSBD
2) HID THE MANNLICHER-CARCANO,
3) RAN FROM THE 6TH TO THE 2ND FLOOR,
4) BOUGHT A COKE,
5) WAS NOT BREATHING HARD WHEN SEEN BY TRULY AND BAKER,
6) AND DID ALL THIS IN 75-90 SECONDS.

REALLY?

The naysayers have yet to explain the following.

-Oswald (LHO) told Fritz he was “out front with Bill Shelley”.
-Why would Oswald lie when he had Shelley as an alibi?
-Fritz’s notes were not made public until 1997. Why not?

-Lovelady and Frazier both testified multiple times that Lovelady was standing on the steps in front of Frazier – not on the first floor where Doorman was standing.

-In their initial 11/22/63 testimony, Roy Truly and Marrion Baker did not say they encountered Oswald in the lunchroom on the second floor.
-TSBD witnesses said LHO always ate lunch in the Domino room on the first floor.
-LHO was seen on the first floor a few minutes before and after the 12:30 shooting.
-It’s a 10 second walk from the Domino room to the TSBD entrance.

-Witnesses were intimidated, ignored or testimony altered.
-Carolyn Arnold told the FBI that she saw Oswald on the first floor at 12:25 – but was never interviewed by the Warren Commission.

-Doorman’s V-neck open shirt was that of Oswald – not Lovelady.
-Pixel analysis of the shirt is scientific proof that Doorman was not Lovelady.

-Lovelady died at 41 in Jan. 1979 during the HSCA from complications due to a heart attack. He was never interviewed by the HSCA. The probability of a 41 year old white male dying from a heart attack in 1979 were approximately 1 in 10,000.

-Since Oswald was on the first floor, one must assume he would watch the motorcade.
-The process of witness elimination indicates that Oswald was “Prayer Man” with hands folded watching the motorcade on the first floor.

-The Altgens 6 photo printed in the 11/22 Oakland Times differs from the Groden version. The figure standing in front (who had to be Lovelady according to the testimony of Lovelady and Frazier) was whited out.

This is the “evidence” naysayers claim that proves Lovelady was Doorman.
1) “Doorman looks like Lovelady”.
But Doorman also “looks” like Oswald. And they disregard the obvious: Doorman is wearing Oswald’s shirt. http://jamesfetzer.blogspot.com/2013/02/newseum-displays-oswalds-shirt-proof.html

2) No one testified that they saw Oswald out front.
But would they be allowed to give the testimony? Witnesses were ignored, intimidated and testimonies altered. Oswald was the designated patsy – come hell or high water.
http://garyrevel.com/jfk/girlonstairs.html

3) There is no evidence that Altgens 6 was altered.
But note the differences between the early Oakland Tribune photo and later Groden version. A memo from FBI official Cartha DeLoach indicates that Altgens 6 could have been altered shortly after the assassination.The Zapruder film and the Oswald backyard photos were also once believed to be authentic.
http://jamesfetzer.blogspot.com/2013/09/jfk-cartha-deloach-fbi-memorandum-and.html

Related Posts Indicating that Oswald was Doorman:

JFK: Oswald on the Top Level; Lovelady on the Steps 2 JFK: Judyth Baker’s analysis of the shirt proves Oswald is Doorman 3 JFK: To Believe Oswald was NOT standing in front of the TSBD you must believe  4 JFK: Oswald was “Out with Bill Shelley in Front” 5  JFK: Oswald in the Doorway – an Opinion Survey 6- Evidence Oswald was on the first floor minutes before the shooting

Oswald on the first floor of the TSBD watching the motorcade:
https://scontent-mia1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xft1/v/t1.0-9/11202578_10204293270752101_3880872768881082301_n.jpg?oh=cf1cf186c261d928d687facbf2cb7443&oe=55ED1841

 
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Posted by on May 30, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

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JFK: Timeline of events from 12:00-1:22pm

The following is a summary timeline of events surrounding the JFK assassination compiled by Richard Hocking:
http://jfkcountercoup2.blogspot.com/2013_08_01_archive.html

Richard Charnin
May 29, 2015

JFK Blog Posts
Twitter Chronological Links
Look inside the book:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

12:00: Eddie Piper sees Oswald on the 1st floor of the TSBD. 1
12:00–12:10: (estimated) Bonnie Ray Williams goes to 6th floor to eat lunch (sees and hears no one) 2

12:12: Carolyn Arnold sees Oswald a few minutes before 12:15 in the hallway on the first floor between the front and double doors 3
12:15–12:25: Carolyn Arnold sees Oswald in the 1st floor Lunch Room (Domino Room) 4

12:15: Arnold Rowland sees a man with a rifle on the 6th floor West Window (slender, dark hair, light shirt open at neck); another man was “colored” hanging out of East corner window) 5

12:20-12:25: Carolyn Arnold looks through glass door and sees Oswald inside on 1st floor near front of TSBD 8

12:26-12:30: Ruby Henderson sees two men on 6th/ or Top floor. One dark (Mexican or Negro), and was wearing a white shirt. The other man was taller and lighter. 9
12:28: Richard Carr sees a heavy set man with glasses, tan sport coat in 2nd window from East corner, 6th floor. 10
12:29: Carolyn Walther sees two men with a rifle in 5th floor SE corner Window (one wearing brown suit coat). 11
12:29 Robert Edwards sees a white male in 6th floor SE corner window, light colored shirt, short sleeve, open neck, possibly thin. 12
12:29 Ronald Fischer sees man in 5th floor “right corner” window laying down. He could only see his head, light headed and open neck shirt, in his twenties (Fischer will later say it was the 6th floor and change the number of shots from 4 to 3.) 13
12:29–12:30: Geneva Hines notes that the lights are out on her phone system as motorcade approaches TSBD. 14

12:30: SHOTS FIRED AT JFK LIMO

12:30 According to Det. Will Fritz, Oswald said he was on the first floor at the time of the shooting and then went up to the second floor to get a coke.

12:30 “Prayer Man” is standing on TOP of the front stairs of the TSBD by the glass door. Frazier says he was also standing there and that William Shelley and Lovelady were on the STEPS below him.

12:31: Vicky Adams and Sandra Styles descend the NW rear stairs from the 4th floor to the 1st floor but do not see or hear anyone. 19

12:31: Otis Williams runs up NW stairway to 4th floor (sees no one) goes back to his 2nd floor office (?) 20

12:31: Officer Baker enters the TSBD front entrance, runs past “Prayer Man” and goes to back with Truly, who shouts twice to release elevator (no response). They see two white men by the elevators (probably Shelley and Lovelady according to Adams) 21
12:31: Officer Barnett runs to guard back of TSBD (and Fire Escape on East Side). 22
12:31:30: Officer Baker and Roy Truly on 2nd floor by NW stairway; claim to see Oswald in lunch room. 21

12:32: HSCA analysis shows boxes in 6th floor window were rearranged within 2 minutes of shooting. 22
12:32–12:33 Mrs. Reid returns to her 2nd floor office. Oswald calmly walks by her with coke in hand. 23

12:32–12:33: Officer Baker sees white male on 3rd or 4th floor, 30 yrs old, 5’9, 165 lb, dark hair, light brown jacket. Manager vouches for the man and Baker lets him go. (Baker 11/22/63 affidavit) 25

12:33–12:34: Baker and Truly on 4th or 5th floor, spot East Elevator, but West elevator is missing 28 They take the East Elevator to the seventh floor and find nothing, return to the fourth floor where Baker reports to Inspector Sawyer, the senior Dallas Police Department officer in the building.
12:35: Baker and Truly are on the roof of TSBD 33

12:40–12:45: Deputy Sheriff Roger Craig hears a shrill whistle and sees a light green Nash Rambler Station Wagon stop by the TSBD. He then sees a white male run down the slope and get inside. He was 140-150 lbs, brown hair, in his 20’s, white T shirt. The driver of the vehicle was a husky Latin, dark wavy hair, tan windbreaker jacket. Craig runs over to report this to the Command Post in front of the TSBD entrance and encounters a SS Agent (“40 years old, sandy-haired with a distinct cleft in his chin. He was well-dressed in a gray business suit”) 24

12:45: Description of suspect broadcast by DPD: w/m, 30, 5’10, 165, 30-30 (Winchester Rifle on Channel 2) 36

1:22: Boone and Weitzman discover rifle they identify as a 7.65 Mauser, concealed between boxes on the 6th floor 40

1:22 Truly tells DPD Capt. Lumpkin that one of his men (Oswald) is missing. Lumpkin confers privately with two or three other senior DPD officers and then escorts Truly up to the Sixth Floor where they interrupt Capt. Fritz examining the rifle. Lumpkin tells Fritz that Truly has something important to tell. Truly tells Fritz about the missing employee and gives Fritz Oswald’s address at Mrs. Paine’s home in Irving. Fritz walks across the street to Sheriff Decker’s office and they confer privately. Fritz returns to his DPD office where Oswald is under arrest for the Tippit shooting.
——————————————————-
Did Baker and Truly encounter Oswald on the 2nd floor?
http://assassinationofjfk.net/the-coke-incident-fritzs-notes-and-the-limo-stop/

Related Posts Indicating that Oswald was Doorman:

JFK: Oswald on the Top Level; Lovelady on the Steps 2 JFK: Judyth Baker’s analysis of the shirt proves Oswald is Doorman 3 JFK: To Believe Oswald was NOT standing in front of the TSBD you must believe  4 JFK: Oswald was “Out with Bill Shelley in Front” 5  JFK: Oswald in the Doorway – an Opinion Survey 6- Evidence Oswald was on the first floor minutes before the shooting

 
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Posted by on May 29, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

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A Probability Analysis of the Mysterious Deaths of 125 Scientists and 75 Bankers

Richard Charnin
May 24, 2015

A probability analysis of mysterious recent deaths: 125 scientists, 75 bankers

Something’s happening here. What it is ain’t exactly clear. But over the past two years, there have been a large number of highly suspicious deaths of scientists, bankers and journalists.
http://asheepnomore.net/2015/03/20/dead-125-scientists-75-high-level-bankers-and-within-24-hours-3-investigative-journalists/

A Denver banker supposedly shot himself 8 times in his head and torso with a nail gun. An infectious disease scientist was stabbed 196 times..the list goes on and on.

Consider the deaths of 48 high level bankers in the LAST YEAR alone. What are the odds that these rich bankers would kill themselves?

Assuming 100,000 bankers, 18 unnatural deaths would be expected in one year; there were 48. The probability is P= 1 in 600 million.

Many deaths are ruled suicides, even though the circumstances suggest otherwise. One slashed his own throat and somehow put the knife under his body afterwards. Another somehow crushed himself with his own SUV. Many of these ‘suicides’ were seemingly committed with a ‘vengeance’.

The following probability analysis is based on current mortality rates for murders, accidents and suicides. Since the number of worldwide bankers is unknown, a sensitivity analysis calculates probabilities of unnatural deaths based on a range of estimates over a two-year period.

View the calculations: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VdwJE_g5z3St3h2NbbXpau0DH7-g1y_98IKXRrt_9ao/edit#gid=1770582739

– Assuming 50,000 bank executives world-wide, approximately 22 unnatural deaths would be expected in a two year period. The probability of at least 75 unnatural deaths is P= 1 in 600,000 trillion.

– Assuming 100,000 bank executives, approximately 45 unnatural deaths would be expected in a two year period. The probability of at least 75 unnatural deaths is P = 1 in 40,000.

– Assuming 150,000 scientists, approximately 67 unnatural deaths would be expected in a two year period. The probability of at least 125 unnatural deaths is P = 1 in 4 billion.

News articles:

http://intellihub.com/another-banker-jumps-building-nyc-12th-banker-suicide-year/
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/following-the-bodies-we-are-at-the-precipice-of-something-so-big-it-will-shake-the-financial-world_02152014

 
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Posted by on May 24, 2015 in Uncategorized

 
 
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