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Kansas 2014 Senate: Cumulative Vote share model confirms Wichita State Statistician

Richard Charnin

April 2, 2015

Look inside the books: Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy … Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Beth Clarkson, chief statistician for Wichita State’s National Institute for Aviation Research, filed an open records lawsuit in Sedgwick County District Court as part of her personal quest to find the answer to an unexplained pattern that transcends elections and states. She sued the top Kansas election official Wednesday, seeking paper tapes from electronic voting machines in an effort to explain statistical anomalies favoring Republicans in counts coming from large precincts across the country.  http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article17139890.html

To confirm Clarkson’s results, I downloaded 2014 Kansas Senate precinct data for each county. Cumulative vote shares (CVS) were calculated for the five largest: Sedgwick, Johnson, Saline, Shawnee and Wyandotte and the Total for all counties.

Note the Republican state total cumulative share margin is in steady decline for the first 500,000 votes, but then becomes flat. Since the largest counties show the GOP cumulative share increasing with precinct size, it confirms that they were the counties where the anomalies occurred. In other words, the Independent Orman may have caught the Republican Roberts if the trend was not halted by election fraud (vote switching, disenfranchisement, etc.) in the larger (presumably more Democratic) precincts. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D087y0AlsFiITeypDEk3W_c4P-O2iytQRCp85wFIw-Q/edit#gid=1367668624

Clarkson’s analysis confirms my previous CVS analysis of the 2014 Wisconsin, Florida, Maryland and South Dakota governor elections, all of which showed the same counter-intuitive, mathematically anomalous trend. Vote shares increased in favor of the Republican candidate from small to large precincts. The divergence in cumulative vote shares violates the Law of Large Numbers. One would expect an insignificant change in the shares after a certain point (the “Long Run”). https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/02/27/proving-election-fraud-cumulative-vote-share-analysis/

“Clarkson, a certified quality engineer with a Ph.D. in statistics, said she has analyzed election returns in Kansas and elsewhere over several elections that indicate “a statistically significant” pattern where the percentage of Republican votes increase the larger the size of the precinct. While it is well-recognized that smaller, rural precincts tend to lean Republican, statisticians have been unable to explain the consistent pattern favoring Republicans that trends upward as the number of votes cast in a precinct or other voting unit goes up. In primaries, the favored candidate appears to always be the Republican establishment candidate, above a tea party challenger. And the upward trend for Republicans occurs once a voting unit reaches roughly 500 votes”.

“This is not just an anomaly that occurred in one place,” Clarkson said. “It is a pattern that has occurred repeatedly in elections across the United States.”
Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article17139890.html#storylink=cpy

Kansas Senate vote totals: Roberts (R) 460,350 – 53.1%;  Batson (L) 37,469 – 4.3%;  Orman (I) 368,372- 42.5%. Unfortunately, precinct data was not available for the Governor race: Davis (D) 401,100-46.1%; Brownback (R) 433,196-49.8%; Umbehr (L)- 35,206-4.0%

This study confirms the Cumulative Vote Share precinct size analysis: Precinct 
Size
 Matters:­
The 
Large 
Precinct 
Bias
 in
 US 
Presidential
 Elections- G.F.
Webb (Vanderbilt
University,
Nashville,
TN
USA)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1410.8868.pdf

CVS and Stolen elections:

2000 presidential election. Duval County, FL.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eiVf34eX9LSptAXZ-EvgCmW88JRjLu8Z5Bxfleg_RgQ/pubchart?oid=1722819743&format=interactive

2004 presidential election:  Lucas County, Ohio.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zcUZQ49a5fAmx2fomZ_xcCp2vDbCIitNKyfoQnVQKao/pubchart?oid=1403163968&format=interactive

2010 Wisconsin Senate:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tXw5LpgQrZjn_YFOkLoLqtQhIAco_V9EEApXvva58kE/pubchart?oid=282743022&format=interactive

2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ziSkkHnYz-bVvAfHd_VciBBEUKQqFafJJjico4WbwTE/pubchart?oid=505176002&format=interactive

2014 Wisconsin Governor

CVS graphs for five Kansas counties and the state total:

 
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Posted by on April 2, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

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Israel Exit Poll Myths and the stolen 2000/ 2004 U.S. presidential elections

Israel Exit Poll Myths and the stolen 2000/ 2004 U.S. presidential elections

Richard Charnin

March 24, 2015

Look inside the books: Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy  Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Count

Once again, the usual blather, myths and excuses from the corporate media  (NY Times) and so-called statistical experts about “faulty” exit polls. “The exit polls were wrong; the vote count was accurate”. We have heard this mantra many times before: in 2000, 2004, Wisconsin, etc.. How is it that whenever the race is “too close to call”, the right-winger wins by a 5% recorded margin?

The corporate media claimed that Gore, Kerry and the Zionist Union were leading or tied in the early exit polls, but a  late surge by Bush, Bush and Likud put them in front at the final exit poll. That is the biggest canard of all. There is never consideration that Election Fraud is a major cause of  discrepancies between the exit polls and the recorded vote. The 2000  and 2004 unadjusted exit poll timelines each had Gore and Kerry winning consistently from the early to final timeline.  The discrepancy (“red-shift”) between the poll and the vote is beyond the margin of error.

ALL final unadjusted exit polls are forced to match the bogus recorded vote in every election by rigging the numbers. The premise is always that there was ZERO fraud. The unadjusted, pristine exit polls are very close to the True vote. But the media wants us to believe they are ALWAYS in error and therefore must be “adjusted” to math the fraudulent recorded vote.

The myths are straight out of the GOP election fraud playbook:

  1. The early exit polls were wrong
  2. there was a late surge in the Likud vote
  3. Likud voters did not want to be exit polled

Note that Israeli law does not allow for exit polls to be published prior to the closure of the polls. The actual polling data was expected to be released throughout the night as the ballots are counted.

Voter turnout  appeared to be slightly higher than in the  2013 election, with 65.7 percent of eligible voters having cast their ballots as of 8 p.m. At the same point in the 2013 election, 63.9% of voters had cast ballots as of 8 p.m

The New York Times has maintained the fiction that the exit polls were wrong as far back as they have been conducted- since 1968. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/19/world/middleeast/israel-election-results-exit-polls-falter.html?_r=0

A look at how inaccurate exit polls contributed to the surprised reaction Wednesday morning that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had defeated his main rival decisively

JERUSALEM — Israelis woke up to a surprise on Wednesday morning, having gone to bed the night before with the results of their national elections in a near tie.

By dawn, it was clear that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had decisively defeated his main rival, Isaac Herzog, and assured himself a fourth term.

The cause of the confusion: inaccurate exit polls that showed Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud Party and Mr. Herzog’s center-left Zionist Union winning about 27 seats each in the 120-seat Knesset.

Instead, with 99 percent of the votes counted, the Likud had won 30 seats to the Zionist Union’s 24.

Mina Tzemach, who together with her colleague, Mano Geva, conducted the poll for the popular Channel 2, appeared again in the studio to explain what had gone wrong. Though Ms. Tzemach’s poll included mock ballots in 60 voting stations serving 25,000 voters around the country, she said an unusually high number of voters refused to participate, particularly in Likud strongholds and in areas with many immigrants from the former Soviet Union, who tend to be wary of sharing their views, a phenomenon that might have skewed the results.

Ms. Tzemach said that anger among Likud supporters and their right-wing allies at the Israeli news media, which has been critical of Mr. Netanyahu, may have played a role.

In addition, the exit polls ended at 8:30 p.m., 90 minutes before the voting stations closed. Mr. Netanyahu was appealing to voters to come out and support him with increasing intensity as the day wore on.

“We saw that the later it got, the stronger the right became,” Ms. Tzemach said.

Camil Fuchs, a professor of statistics who conducted the exit poll for Channel 10 by questioning voters after they had cast their ballot, said he heard the real results when he woke up on Wednesday morning. “I nearly died,” he told the Haaretz newspaper.

Mr. Fuchs said that 30 percent of those asked to take part in his poll had refused. “Perhaps some of the Likud voters refused because of their perception that the media is leftist,” he said.

And the obligatory response from another polling “expert” who never considers ELECTION FRAUD:

http://www.stats.org/israels-election-socks-it-to-pollsters/

The recent Israeli election provides a case study in how political polls—and even exit polls—can get the answer badly wrong, with the result that election winner seemed to flip flop from news outlet to news outlet as the actual count unfolded. The print edition of The Washington Post’s headline on Wednesday morning had gone to bed declaring, “A Virtual Tie in Israeli Election” while The New York Times’ headline announced, “Netanyahu Soundly Defeats Chief Rival.” The Postquickly changed its online version to include an acknowledgment of the poorly informed “virtual tie”, and linking the “Virtual Tie” to the story “Netanyahu Sweeps to Victory”.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/israeli-exit-polls-show-incredibly-tight-race-netanyahu-declares-victory/

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/First-exit-polls-show-tight-race-between-Herzog-and-Netanyahu-394224

………………………

Well, here we go again. Just change the above from Likud to Bush.

In 2000, Al Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). But the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) indicated he won by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin.  There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes.

The True Vote Model had him winning by 51.5-44.7%. But the Supreme Court awarded the election to Bush (271-267 EV).  In Florida, 185,000 ballots were uncounted. The following states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Bush in the recorded vote: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states.  

Gore Bush Buchanan Nader Other
53,560 46,789 789 3,474 881
50.79% 44.37% 0.75% 3.29% 0.84%
Unadjusted 2000 National Exit Poll
Gore Bush Buchanan Nader Other
6,359 6,065 76 523 85
48.51% 46.27% 0.58% 3.99% 0.65%
The Final 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible since it indicated that there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters – but he had just 50.5 million recorded votes. Only 48 million were alive in 2004.  Approximately 46 million voted, therefore the Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6-7 million.

The Final NEP implied an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters returning in 2004.

The post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on  total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), a 1.25% annual mortality rate and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout.  Kerry won by 67-57 million and had 379 EV.

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

Sample Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%

UNADJUSTED STATE EXIT POLL AGGREGATE

Data Source: Roper Center (UConn)

Kerry Bush Nader Other Margin
62,474 58,203 648 969 4,271
51.09% 47.59% 0.53% 0.79% 3.49%

Kerry’s lead was a constant 4% in the exit poll timeline. But the corporate media lied and said that a late surge enabled Bush to win by 2.3%. In fact, the pollsters had to adjust the national exit poll to match the bogus Bush win.

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline

This refutes the myth that early exit polls were biased to Kerry. He led from 4pm with 51% (8,349 respondents) to the final 13,660 (51.7%).  The exit pollsters had to switch approximately 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to force the Final NEP to match the recorded voteBush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3% 

http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Given his 51.7% share of 125.7 million (Census) votes cast, Kerry won by nearly 6 million votes.The True Vote Model indicates he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.         

3:59pm: 8349 respondents: Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%

 http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

 7:33pm: 11027 respondents: Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1% 

http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

12:22am: 13047 respondents: Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5% 

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

2004 Red-shift: 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=23

Probabilities of exceeding the margin of error for each 2004 state exit poll (in Column V) 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=46

 
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Posted by on March 24, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

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A probability analysis of unnatural recent deaths: 125 scientists, 75 bankers

A probability analysis of unnatural recent deaths: 125 scientists, 75 bankers

Richard Charnin
March 23, 2015

Remember that old sixties tune:”Something’s happening here. What it is ain’t exactly clear”? Over the past two years, there have been a large number of highly suspicious deaths of scientists, bankers and journalists. The deaths of 48 high-level bankers occurred in the LAST YEAR alone. What are the odds that these high-level, rich bankers would kill themselves?

http://asheepnomore.net/2015/03/20/dead-125-scientists-75-high-level-bankers-and-within-24-hours-3-investigative-journalists/

The probability analysis is based on current mortality rates for murders, accidents and suicides. Since the number of worldwide bankers is unknown, this sensitivity analysis calculates probabilities of unnatural deaths over a range of numerical estimates for the latest two years. Assuming 100,000 Bankers, the probability of 75 unnatural deaths in two years is 1 in 600,000 trillion.

Many deaths are ruled suicides. But how did the banker who slashed his own throat  put the knife under his body? Or the one who somehow crushed himself with his own SUV. Many of these ‘suicides’ were seemingly committed with a ‘vengeance’. A Denver banker supposedly shot himself 8 times in his head and torso with a nail gun. An infectious disease scientist was stabbed 196 times..The list goes on and on

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VdwJE_g5z3St3h2NbbXpau0DH7-g1y_98IKXRrt_9ao/edit#gid=1770582739

 
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Posted by on March 23, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

Florida 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Florida 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov.14, 2014
Updated:Nov.21, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

For the first time since 2000, I did not forecast the 2014 election and post-election True Vote analysis. Systemic Election Fraud has been proven beyond any doubt, so why bother? Nothing has changed, the media and congress refuse to do anything about it.

I was asked to analyze the Wisconsin 2014 Governor election and created a True Vote model and a Cumulative Vote Share analysis. Both indicated that the election was stolen beyond a reasonable doubt. I decided to analyze the Florida Governor election. The results essentially duplicated the Wisconsin analysis; the election was stolen. .

The 2014 election was 2010 deja vu. In 2010, Scott won by 49.6-48.4% (62,000 votes). He had 50.59% of the 2-party vote, but Sink won the unadjusted exit poll by 50.8-45.4% (283,000 votes). In 2014 Scott won the recorded vote by 48.2-47.1% (50.58% of the 2-party vote). The fact that his 2-party share exactly matched 2010 is a red flag by itself. Crist won the True Vote by 52.0-48.0%.

The key to understanding that elections are rigged is to take a close look at the exit polls. All exit poll crosstabs must be adjusted in order to force the poll to match the recorded vote. In the “How did you Vote in the Last Election” question, there are two sets of adjustments: a) how returning voters from the prior election voted and b) how returning and new voters in the current election voted. Generally, the most flagrant adjustment is made to the percentages of how they voted in the prior election.

Since unadjusted exit polls are not released until years later, we only have the adjusted published polls. The pattern never changes: exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure. The pollsters claim the matching is to correct polling error. Pollsters and media pundits want the public to believe the myth: recorded vote count is pristine and there is zero fraud. But there is no longer any doubt. Election fraud is pervasive and systemic.

This is the direct link to the 2014 Florida Governor True Vote analysis: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnErWihwCvq5puGw3sBF9E4jr585XV2NChqvxGObLAU/edit#gid=841488888

The 2014FLGov spreadsheet contains the following worksheets:
– 2014 National House Exit Poll (‘2014 NEP’)
– 2010 Florida Exit Poll (‘2010 FL EP’)
– 2014 Florida Exit Poll (‘2014 FL EP’)
– 2014 FL County Vote vs. 2010 (“Counties’)
– 2014 True Vote Model (‘True Vote’)

2014 NEP (forced to match the recorded vote)
This sheet contains a selected set of crosstabs (demographics). The Gender demographic is within 0.6% of the recorded vote because it was forced to match the vote. The exit poll margin of error was approximately 2%. The probability of a 0.6% deviation is close to zero. The deviation illustrates that the pollsters forced the match. But that’s not news. It’s standard operating procedure – and unscientific. It’s no different then a serial thief daring the police to stop him. But they never do even though they have the statistical evidence of fraud and a signed confession.

Florida 2010 Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
Scott won by 49.6-48.4%, a 62,000 vote margin. But Sink (D) won the unadjusted exit poll by 283,000 votes (50.8-45.4%, a 6.6% margin discrepancy). There were 3,150 exit poll respondents and a 2.3% poll margin of error. Sink had a 99% win probability. But the poll was forced to match the recorded vote.

Just as in presidential election exit polls, the returning 2008 voter percentages were implausible. In the ’Voted in 2010′ crosstab, 47% of 2010 voters were returning Obama voters and 47% were returning McCain voters. But Obama won the Florida 2008 unadjusted exit poll by 6% So how does one explain the equal 47% mix of returning voters? This is the standard ‘tell’: the mix is adjusted to maximize the Republican vote and minimize the Democratic vote. The mix and the vote shares were changed to reflect the 2008 unadjusted exit poll.
Sink is the winner of the True vote by 50.8-45.4%

2010 Unadjusted Exit Poll
................Sink Scott Other
Respondents.....1600 1431 119
Poll Share......50.8% 45.4% 3.8%
Poll Vote.......2683 2400 200
Margin..........283

2010 True Vote
2008...........Vote Mix Sink Scott Other
Obama...........989 49.7% 88% 10% 2%
McCain..........848 42.6% 7% 87% 2%
Other...........220 6.0% 53% 44% 3%
DNV..............34 1.7% 53.0% 44.0% 3%
True Vote.......1991
Respondents....1991 100% 50.8% 45.4% 3.8%
Votes...................5282 2683 2399 200
Margin 195

2010 Exit Poll (adjusted to match recorded vote)
2008............Mix Sink Scott Other
Obama...........47% 88% 10% 2%
McCain..........47% 11% 87% 2%
Other............3% 31% 67% 2%
DNV..............3% 31% 67% 2%
Total..........100% 48.4% 49.6% 2.0%
Votes.................. 2556 2620 106
Margin -64

Florida 2014 Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
The How Voted in 2010 crosstab was not listed, but we have the True Vote model. The returning voter mix was changed to reflect the 2010 unadjusted exit poll. Crist is the winner of the True vote by 52-48%.

Party ID
The Florida Adjusted 2014 Exit Poll indicates a 31-35-33 Dem-Rep-Ind split (over-weighted for Republicans) with 91% of Dems voting for Crist, 88% of Repubs voting for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. When we change the split to a more plausible 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%.

Counties
There were nearly 500,000 more voters in 2014 than in 2010. Presumably, this increase in turnout would be expected to help Crist. As mentioned, Sink won the True Vote in 2010. But Scott’s 2014 margin increased by 5,000 votes. This is counter-intuitive; strong turnout always favors the Democrats.

The True Vote Model
The model data was updated for 2014 using 2010 returning and new voters. The assumptions for the base case scenario:
1) Sink had a 52.2% True Vote share in 2010
2) In 2014, there was a 93% turnout of living 2010 voters
3) Crist had 92.5% of returning Sink voters
4) Crist had 6.9% of returning Scott voters
5) Crist had 54% of new voters

In the Base Case scenario, Crist had a 52.0% share and won by 224,000 votes. The Sensitivity analysis shows Crist’s total vote share and margins over a range of 18 scenarios. He won 17.

1988-2008 Presidential Elections
A comprehensive analysis of 274 unadjusted 1988-2008 state and 6 national presidential exit polls proved systemic election fraud. The Democrats led the recorded vote by 48-46%, but led the exit polls by a whopping 52-42%. The True Vote Model matched and therefore confirmed the exit polls.

The Adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that 52.6 million of 2004 voters (43%) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 37% were returning Gore voters. But this is impossible since Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore 5 million phantom Bush voters were required in order to match the recorded vote. Recall that Gore won the popular recorded vote by 540,000 (he actually won by 3-5 million True Votes). The exit pollsters switched 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders (of 13660 polled) to Bush.

The Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 60 million (46%) of the 131 million who voted in 2008 were returning Bush 2004 voters and just 49 million (37%) were returning Kerry voters. In other words, in order to match the 2008 recorded vote, there had to be 12 million more returning Bush 2004 voters than returning Kerry voters. But Bush won the bogus 2004 recorded vote by just 3 million! Kerry won the True Vote by close to 10 million. He won the unadjusted state and national exit polls by 6 million. Therefore Obama won the True Vote in 2008 by 22 million, not the 9.5 million recorded.

The pattern is clear. It’s not even close.

An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 

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JFK-related Witness Homicides: Warren Commission Apologist Confusion

JFK-related Witness Homicides: Warren Commission Apologist Confusion

Richard Charnin
Aug. 23, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

It is strange how Warren Commission apologists still can’t get the difference between a random and selected group. They claim that the universe of 1400 JFK-related witnesses is not a RANDOM group; that it is SELF-SELECTED and therefore a probability calculation of 34 official homicides from the group of 1400 over the 15 year period from 1964-78 is not valid.

The apologists have used the same talking point from their disinformation playbook years after I have explained it a number of times in various forums. To use such a convoluted argument over and over again betrays utter confusion and/or an attempt to discredit the logic of the witness unnatural death analysis.

Yes, it is true, the group of 1400 JFK assassination-related individuals is NOT a random group. AND THAT IS WHY THE ZERO PROBABILITY OF 34 HOMICIDES IN THE GROUP IS VALID. The apologists cannot or refuse to accept the logic of that simple statement of fact.

The 1400+ JFK-related witnesses are listed in Michael Benson’s “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. In the group, there were 34 officially ruled homicides (actually there were quite a few more since many suicides and accidents and heart attacks were statistically proven to be inflated and therefore were actually homicides). But we will stick with the bogus 34 official homicides.

How many accidents, suicides, suspiciously timed heart attacks, and sudden cancers were likely homicides? https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/11/08/jfk-witness-deaths-how-many-accidents-suicides-and-natural-deaths-were-homicides/

In a RANDOM group of 1400, only two homicides would be expected given the average 0.000084 homicide rate over the 15 year period from 1964-78. But there were 34 homicides in the JFK-RELATED group of 1400!

The key point is that JFK-related witnesses were murdered at a MUCH HIGHER RATE than would be statistically expected in a RANDOM group of 1400.

The only relevant factors in calculating the probability are

1) N, the number of JFK-related witnesses
2) n, the number of official homicides
3) T, the time period in years
4) R, the average homicide rate

That is all we need to calculate the probability of n homicides in the N-group.
We first calculate E, the expected number of homicides.
E = N*T*R = 1.77 = 15*0.000084*1400.

The probability is calculated using the Poisson function:
P=POISSON (34, 1.77, false) = 1.57E-31 or 1 in 6 million trillion trillion.

This is not a poll. It is not a correlation analysis. Motivation for any given murder is not a factor. The 34 official murders among 1400 witnesses is all that matters. The 1 in 6 million trillion trillion probability means we have proven a conspiracy beyond any doubt.

HOMICIDE PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Witnesses: N
Homicides: n
Time: T= 15 years
Rate: R= 0.000084

Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)

Example: In the table, find the probability of n=50 homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is
P= 1.42E-53 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

The probability is still effectively ZERO assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals:
P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion).

Homicide Probability Sensitivity Analysis

………………………………….Homicides (n) …………………….
N......10...... 20...... 30...... 40...... 50...... 60...... 70...... 80
Warren Commission
552 3.77E-09 1.55E-22 3.90E-38 3.48E-55 2.57E-73 2.58E-92 4.93E-112 2.27E-132
4 Investigations
1100 1.86E-06 7.54E-17 1.88E-29 1.66E-43 1.21E-58 1.20E-74 2.26E-91 1.03E-108
"Who's Who in the JFK Assassination"
1400 1.42E-05 6.41E-15 1.78E-26 1.75E-39 1.42E-53 1.58E-68 3.31E-84 1.68E-100

3000 3.83E-03 3.53E-09 2.00E-17 4.03E-27 6.67E-38 1.51E-49 6.47E-62 6.70E-75
4000 1.92E-02 3.15E-07 3.17E-14 1.13E-22 3.33E-32 1.33E-42 1.02E-53 1.87E-65
5000 5.05E-02 7.70E-06 7.22E-12 2.40E-19 6.58E-28 2.46E-37 1.75E-47 2.99E-58

6000 8.83E-02 8.34E-05 4.84E-10 9.96E-17 1.69E-24 3.91E-33 1.72E-42 1.82E-52
7000 1.16E-01 5.14E-04 1.39E-08 1.34E-14 1.06E-21 1.15E-29 2.36E-38 1.17E-47
8000 1.25E-01 2.10E-03 2.16E-07 7.89E-13 2.38E-19 9.78E-27 7.63E-35 1.44E-43

 
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Posted by on August 23, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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JFK Probability Analysis: Suspicious Deaths of Dealey Plaza Witnesses

JFK Probability Analysis: Suspicious Deaths of Dealey Plaza Witnesses

Richard Charnin
June 4, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

It is an interesting exercise to calculate the probabilities of suspicious deaths of 20 Dealey Plaza witnesses. The 20 are among 122 JFK-related suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet database in the 15 year period from 1964-78.

The fact that they were in Dealey Plaza makes them obvious material witnesses – by definition.
Of the 20 suspicious deaths, 8 were officially ruled unnatural (2 homicides, 5 accidents, 1 suicide) and 12 were natural (5 heart attacks, 7 other).

Furthermore, 14 of the 20 witnesses testified at the Warren Commission, 4 were sought to testify in the Garrison trial, 2 at the Church Senate hearings and 3 at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).

The probabilities of JFK witness deaths for various groups have been previously posted: Warren Commission, London Times actuary,Garrison/ Shaw, Church, HSCA, Simkin Educational Forum, JFK-related 1400+ witness reference “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.

View the witness list here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=79

The probability of 8 ruled unnatural deaths assuming 300 witnesses is 1 in 1500. But a statistical analysis of the expected number of accidents, suicides and natural deaths indicates that approximately 13 were homicides, so there were 15 total homicides out of 20 suspicious deaths.

Assuming 2X the national homicide rate, let’s calculate the probabilities of 8 and 15 homicides.

For 300 witnesses, the probability of 15 homicides is 1 in 175 trillion.
The probability of 8 homicides is 1 in 700 thousand.

For 500 witnesses, the probability of 15 homicides is 1 in 130 billion.
The probability of 8 homicides is 1 in 18 thousand.

View the calculations in column “O”: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=41

The HSCA in 1979 claimed that the London Sunday Times actuary’s probability calculation of 18 material witness deaths in the three years following the assassination was invalid. The reason: the witness universe was unknown. But the HSCA did not consider Dealey Plaza witnesses or other defined witness groups. The HSCA would have confirmed the actuary if it did a true analysis.

The actuary’s 1 in 100,000 trillion probability is matched given 15 homicides of 385 Dealey Plaza witnesses over 15 years, assuming the average national homicide rate (0.000084).

DEALEY PLAZA WITNESSES/ PROBABILITIES
Sensitivity Analysis
(assume 2X National Homicide rate)

Hom 200..... 300.... 400....500.....600
08 6.8E-08 1.4E-06 1.1E-05 5.3E-05 1.8E-04
09 3.8E-09 1.2E-07 1.2E-06 7.4E-06 3.0E-05
11 8.8E-12 6.0E-10 1.1E-08 1.1E-07 6.2E-07
13 1.4E-14 2.1E-12 6.8E-11 9.6E-10 8.0E-09
15 1.7E-17 5.7E-15 3.3E-13 7.3E-12 8.7E-11

Dealey Plaza witnesses:
Inv: sought by (W)arren Commission, (G)arrison trial, (C)hurch hearings, (H)SCA

Date Witness …….Inv Category
7501 Allen Sweatt W POLICE
7901 Billy Lovelady W WITNESS TSBD
6901 Buddy Walthers WG POLICE
6901 Charles Mentesana – WITNESS TSBD
7109 Cliff Carter W LBJ
7801 Clint Lewis WH POLICE
7509 Earl Cabell WG CIA
6606 Frank Martin W POLICE
7502 Jack Beers W MEDIA
7402 J.A. Milteer C MINUTEMEN
6701 Jack Ruby W MAFIA POLICE
7604 James Chaney – POLICE
6611 James Worrell W WITNESS TSBD
7707 Ken O’Donnell WC JFK
6608 Lee Bowers W WITNESS KNOLL
6311 Lee Oswald – RUBY FBI CIA
7101 Mac Wallace – LBJ Shooter?
7706 Regis Kennedy GH FBI LHO
7505 Roger Craig WG POLICE
6512 William Whaley W WITNESS TSBD

Quick JFK Witness death Calculator: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=78

 
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Posted by on June 4, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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JFK Assassination: Researchers discuss John McAdams

JFK Assassination: Researchers discuss John McAdams

Richard Charnin
April 6, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

A series of articles (including three of mine) on John McAdams, the relentless Warren Commission apologist. http://richardcharnin.com/JMLaughingStock.html

The articles thoroughly debunk the pathetic arguments from the Professor of Disinformation. I enjoyed the devastating reviews of McAdams’ book “JFK Assassination Logic” by Pat Speer, David Mantik, Frank Cassano and Gary Aguilar.

Jim Hargrove asks: Since Mcadams is known to use the alias “Paul Nolan” just how many other names has he used to deceive? He claims to be many things. A jet-propulsion expert, or Crackpot?
Here is what was discovered.

Isabel Kirk: McAdams is not just a fraud as a teacher. He is a corrupt man. He is an evangelist for corruption and fraud. He has sought and enlisted disciples, and they employ his knowingly fraudulent “methodology” in their writing “assignments,” many of which are posted to the website of Marquette University.

Jim DiEugenio with Brian Hunt:
“McAdams did indeed make comments that were intended to imply that Gary Aguilar was a drug addict. IMO, they were deliberate, malicious and intended to smear the doctor.”

John Simkin: “The Education Forum”
If you do any research of major figures in the JFK assassination via web search engines you will soon find yourself on John McAdams’ website. He is clearly the main disinformation source on the net.

Debra Hartman writes:
…McAdams has neither the educational preparation nor the ability for such a position — his language skills are abysmal; his analytical skills non-existent. Not only has he done no research whatsoever on the historical question he pretends to study, he has no knowledge of even the basics of a research methodology. Thus, McAdams himself argues against long established historical facts; on the other hand, he is incapable of doing the research necessary to either confirm or dispute such facts.

And on and on….

I just added an Amazon book sales sheet to JFK Calc.
Judyth Baker’s “Me and Lee” has the highest reader rank at 4.70.

McAdams’ book is far down the totem pole with a 2.38 reader rating out of 5. His sales rank is at 944,700, far below the others. He is a laughingstock all right.

The average rank for the six books that are fact-based is 4.51. McAdams’ 2.38 rank is based on disinformation.

McAdams has had just 16 reviews in three years. NINE (9) are at level 1 (the lowest), 1 is at level 2. Only 3 are level 5. Ten of 16 reviews thought his book stunk. Compare that to Judyth Baker who had 188 reviews in three years with 163 at level 5.

Of the 6 factual books, 793 of 1039 reviews (76%) were at level 5. For McAdams, 3 of 18 (19%) were at level 5.

IT’S NO CONTEST: JFK RESEARCHERS HAVE WON THE DEBATE HANDS DOWN. ONLY MAINSTREAM MEDIA AND WARREN COMMISSION APOLOGISTS LIKE MCADAMS WON’T ADMIT IT.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=75

Amazon Reader ranks (1 lowest to 5 highest)
Published -Title-Author
Sales rank 1 2 3 4 5 Total Average

4/2013 Hit List: Belzer, Wayne
33985 10 1 10 29 74 124 4.26

10/2013 Survivors Guilt: Vince Palamara
88519 8 3 2 7 83 103 4.50

10/2013 They Killed Our President: Ventura, Russell, Wayne
26202 12 2 11 36 125 186 4.40

10/2010 JFK and the Unspeakable: James Douglass
7441 23 11 16 37 333 420 4.54

10/2013 Crossfire: Jim Marrs
47599 1 0 0 2 15 18 4.67

10/2011 Me and Lee Judyth Baker
53426 7 2 6 10 163 188 4.70 < THE BEST

9/2011 How to Think About Claims of Conspiracy: McAdams
944700 9 1 0 3 3 16 2.38 < THE WORST

 
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Posted by on April 6, 2014 in JFK, Uncategorized

 

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