Richard Charnin
Nov.3, 2018
The latest CNN, NBC, CBS AZ senate polls show Sinema up by 4,6 and 3%. FOX has the race tied at 46%. The FOX internal numbers say otherwise.
McSally leads by 48.7-45.8%. But this is conservative as FOX gives her just 3% of Dems and 85% of Repubs. The assumption is that they split Independents 50-50%.
When will the MSM learn? You can’t fool ALL of the people ALL of the time.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html
| AZ | Party ID | McSally | Sinema |
| Rep | 50% | 85% << low | 8% |
| Dem | 40% | 3% << low | 92% |
| Ind/Other | 10% | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 100.0% | 48.7% | 45.8% |
| 11/2 Early voting (000) | 1461 ballots | 611 Rep (41.8%) | 495 Dem (33.9%) |
Let’s make these plausible adjustments (in bold) to McSally’s shares. McSally has 51.4%.
| AZ | Party ID | McSally | Sinema |
| Rep | 50% | 88% | 8% |
| Dem | 40% | 6% | 92% |
| Ind/Other | 10% | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 100.0% | 51.4% | 45.8% |
Sensitivity Analysis- McSally’s total share from worst case lower left cell (48.7%) to best case upper right (52.2%)
| McSally % Rep | ||||
| McSally | 85% | 86% | 87% | 88% |
| %Dem | ||||
| 8% | 50.7% | 51.2% | 51.7% | 52.2% |
| 7% | 50.3% | 50.8% | 51.3% | 51.8% |
| 6% | 49.9% | 50.4% | 50.9% | 51.4% |
| 5% | 49.5% | 50.0% | 50.5% | 51.0% |
| 4% | 49.1% | 49.6% | 50.1% | 50.6% |
| 3% | 48.7% | 49.2% | 49.7% | 50.2% |
Note: The AZ 2016 final exit poll Party ID differs from the FOX poll. But the HRC and DJT total vote shares nearly match.
| AZ 2016 | Party ID | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein |
| Dem | 28.0% | 89.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Rep | 32.0% | 7.0% | 88.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Ind | 40.0% | 44.0% | 47.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Total | 100.0% | 44.8% | 48.9% | 3.8% | 0.80% |
| Votes | 2,573 | 1,152 | 1,259 | 98 | 21 |
| Margin | 107 | 4.2% |
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