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Trump 2020: 25 scenarios

Richard Charnin – Jan. 27, 2021

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(based on estimated turnout and vote shares)

Trump range: Share 52.6% to 56.8%; Votes: 83.3m to 90.0m; margin: 11.7m to 25.1m

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=297739797

DemRepInd
Gallup ID31.0%31.0%38.0%
Trump %12.0%96.0%57.0%
Turnout94%98%96%
Base caseBidenTrump
Vote share41.6%56.2%
Votes65.989.0
% Dem
10.0%11.0%12.0%13.0%14.0%
% IndTrump
57%55.6%55.9%56.2%56.5%56.8%
55%54.9%55.2%55.5%55.8%56.1%
53%54.1%54.4%54.7%55.0%55.3%
51%53.4%53.6%53.9%54.2%54.5%
49%52.6%52.9%53.2%53.5%53.8%
Votes
57%88.188.689.089.590.0
55%86.987.487.888.388.8
53%85.786.286.687.187.6
51%84.585.085.485.986.4
49%83.383.884.284.785.2
Margin
57%21.322.323.224.125.1
55%18.919.820.821.722.7
53%16.517.418.419.320.3
51%14.115.016.016.917.9
49%11.712.613.614.515.5
 
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Posted by on January 27, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

Navarro Report Volume 3: Yes, President Trump WON – The Case, Evidence, & Statistical Receipts

Richard Charnin Jan. 15, 2020

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This third installment of Navarro’s report provides investigators with up-to-date statistical “receipts” and a well-documented tally of potentially illegal votes on a state-by-state and category-by-category basis. Source: NavarroReport.com:

Volume 3 provides a scholarly rendering of the potential number of illegal votes in the 2020 election. Peter Navarro welcomes anyone who wishes to dispute its findings “because that is the nature of scholarly discourse.”

Note: The above table does not include 1) estimated 2.5% machine vote flipping from Trump to Biden, 2) Dr. Epstein’s estimate that 6-10% of Trump voters flipped to Biden from the propaganda effect of Google algorithms which favored Biden, and 3) a survey which found that 7% of Biden voters would have voted for Trump if they knew about the Biden scandals.

Model 1: cell A95 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=297739797

Model 2: cell M8 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=376710386

Illegal voters, Biden margin, Trump margin – Election models 1&2

AZGAMINVPAWI
Illegal votes255601447220992554
Biden margin1012155348221
Trump Model 1490751563217812405
Trump Model 25928798552201,164566
 
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Posted by on January 15, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

The Italian job: Leonardo’s masterpiece- proof of who flipped the votes

Richard Charnin

Jan. 7, 2021

Breaking today: The Smoking Gun
The Italian job: Leonardo’s masterpiece- proof of who flipped the votes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?fbclid=IwAR0gUEmVPrLA8I7oH0rVGmbRWsGPnmk-E7I3x4fg8j701WGX6TE7MIpytII&v=cew2g_KX0xo&feature=youtu.be
 
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Posted by on January 7, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

Senate runoff: What is the probability of a 150,000 vote spike for the Dems 10 minutes after stopping the count?

Richard Charnin Jan.6, 2021

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The corrupt MSM, Dems and Repubs will say they don’t see anything suspicious in the graph and that we should not believe our lying eyes. What is the probability of a 150,000 vote spike for the Dems 10 minutes after stopping the count? Looks like the PA election late night vote dump, but on a smaller scale.

Attention Dominion and ES&S; Sue me please. I volunteer to be sued!

 
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Posted by on January 6, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

A closer look at U.S. deaths due to COVID- 19

Richard Charnin – Jan. 3, 2021

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Deaths from other causes are included in the COVID-19 total…

“When Briand looked at the 2020 data during that seasonal period, COVID-19-related deaths exceeded deaths from heart diseases. This was highly unusual since heart disease has always prevailed as the leading cause of deaths. However, when taking a closer look at the death numbers, she noted something strange.

As Briand compared the number of deaths per cause during that period in 2020 to 2018, she noticed that instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease. Even more surprising, as seen in the graph below, this sudden decline in deaths is observed for all other causes.

This trend is completely contrary to the pattern observed in all previous years. Interestingly, as depicted in the table below, the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19. This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19″ . https://archive.is/DJdin

 
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Posted by on January 3, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

The Electoral vs. Popular vote Myth

Richard Charnin – Jan.3, 2021

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The conventional wisdom is that a presidential candidate could win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote – or vice versa. This is extremely unlikely in a fair election; there is virtually a 100% probability that the winner of the popular vote would win the electoral vote. But all elections are fraudulent to some extent.

The Democrats want to get rid of the electoral college and replace it with the winner of the popular vote, thinking this would help them win elections in the future. But this is based on the  premise that they can more easily win or steal the popular vote, like they  have done in the last two elections. Consider the 2000, 2004, 2016 and 2020 elections, all of which were fraudulent.

Bush stole the 2000 election. He won the Electoral vote by 271-267.  Gore won the recorded popular vote by 540,000 and the true vote by at least 5 million. He led the unadjusted exit polls in 11 states but lost them all in the vote. If he had won just one, he would have won the election.

Bush stole the 2004 election. He won the bogus recorded popular vote by 3 million and the electoral vote by 286-252.. But Kerry won the true popular vote and the unadjusted exit polls by at least 7 million. He  had approximately 349 electoral votes.

Clinton tried to steal the 2016 election. She won the bogus recorded vote by 3 million. But Trump won the electoral vote by 306-232 as well as the true popular vote.

Biden stole the 2020 election, the most fraudulent in history. He won the bogus recorded vote by 7 million and the electoral vote 306-232. But Trump won the true popular vote by 15-18 million with 356-393 electoral votes.

2020 Recorded Vote: Biden 51.3-46.9%, 306-232 EV; True Vote Model: Trump 55.1-42.7%, 393 EV https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=297739797

2016 Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV; True Vote Model: Trump 47.5-46.1%, 354-184 EV https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/2016-election-model-forecast/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045

2004 Recorded Vote: Bush 50.7- 48.3%, Bush 286-252 EV; True Vote Model: Kerry 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV; Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Kerry 51.7-47.0%; Unadjusted State Exit Polls: Kerry 51.1-47.6%, 349 EV https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

2000 Recorded Vote: Gore 48.4-Bush 47.9%, Bush 271- 267 EV; True Vote Model: Gore 51.5-44.7%, 404 EV; Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore 48.5-46.3%; Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Gore 50.8-44.4% https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/11/21/unadjusted-state-exit-polls-indicate-that-al-gore-won-a-mini-landslide-in-2000/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=4

 
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Posted by on January 3, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

2020 Election Model Update: 1/1/2021

Richard Charnin – Jan.1, 2021

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2020 Election Model. View 10 pre-election polls and recorded state votes, party-ID, model popular votes, shares and electoral votes.

1) National Model input data/calculations in row 5, 2) 25 Trump vote share scenarios in row 35, 3) Model output in row 95.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=297739797

Consider two model scenarios:

1) Trump: 96% of Repubs, 12% of Dems and 57% of Independents. He has 393 EV, 54.6%, 14.7m vote margin.

2) Trump: 96% of Repubs, 10% of Dems and 55% of Independents. He has 389 EV, 53.4%, 11.4m vote margin.

Note: Equal voter turnout is assumed. This is conservative. Republicans turn out at higher rates than Democrats. Therefore, we can assume Trump did better than the results below indicate.

Scenario 1Gallup
TurnoutParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem60.242.4%87.0%12.0%1.0%
Rep60.442.5%4.0%96.0%0.0%
Ind21.415.1%38.0%57.0%5.0%
National Model100.0%44.3%54.5%1.2%
Votes142.063.077.41.6
Margin/EV14.4145393
State Model100.0%44.2%54.6%1.2%
Votes142.062.877.51.7
Margin/EV14.7145393
Recorded12/1351.3%46.9%1.8%
Votes158.3881.374.22.9
Margin/EV-7.1306232
Scenario 2Party-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem60.242.4%89.0%10.0%1.0%
Rep60.442.5%4.0%96.0%0.0%
Ind21.415.1%40.0%55.0%5.0%
National Model100.0%45.5%53.3%1.2%
Votes142.0m64.675.71.7
Margin/EV11.2m149389
State Model100.0%45.4%53.4%1.2%
Votes142.064.475.91.7
Margin/EV11.4m149389
Recorded51.3%46.9%1.8%
Votes158.4m81.374.22.9
Margin/EV-7.1m306232

SensitivityAnalysis

%Dem10.0%Trump %Rep
Trump88.0%90.0%92.0%94.0%96.0%
% IndTrump
55%49.9%50.8%51.6%52.5%53.3%
53%49.6%50.5%51.3%52.2%53.0%
51%49.3%50.2%51.0%51.9%52.7%
49%49.0%49.9%50.7%51.6%52.4%
47%48.7%49.6%50.4%51.3%52.1%
Biden
55%48.9%48.0%47.2%46.3%45.5%
53%49.2%48.3%47.5%46.6%45.8%
51%49.5%48.6%47.8%46.9%46.1%
49%49.8%48.9%48.1%47.2%46.4%
47%50.1%49.2%48.4%47.5%46.7%
Margin
55%1.1%2.8%4.5%6.2%7.9%
53%0.5%2.2%3.9%5.6%7.3%
51%-0.1%1.6%3.3%5.0%6.7%
49%-0.7%1.0%2.7%4.4%6.1%
47%-1.4%0.4%2.1%3.8%5.5%
Margin
55%1.53.96.38.811.2
53%0.73.15.57.910.3
51%-0.22.24.67.09.5
49%-1.11.43.86.28.6
47%-1.90.52.95.37.7
 
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Posted by on January 1, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

Anomaly in the 2020 State Exit Polls: Party-ID vs. Race demographic vote shares do not closely match the bogus recording vote – Standard Operating Procedure

Richard Charnin – Dec.30, 2020

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Unadjusted exit polls were fairly accurate- up until 2016 election. But they were rigged for Clinton and Biden and the Democrats in the 2018 and 2020 congressional elections. The published exit polls are ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE. This is standard operating procedure. The polls NEVER represent the TRUE VOTE.

Biden won the recorded vote by 51.3-46.9% (7 million votes). He won the Race demographic by 2.1% and Party-ID by 7.0%. But standard operating procedure indicates they should have closely matched Biden’s 4.4% recorded vote margin. In addition, Biden led the 14 battleground state exit polls with a 3.3% Race and 6.6% Party-ID average margin. These should have matched as well.

But the discrepancies are a moot point. Three True Vote models indicate that Trump won by at least 53-45% (11 million). As stated above, exit polls are always forced to closely match the bogus recorded vote. This time, they couldn’t even get close.

Go to cell K19 to view the discrepancies: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=1445991396

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2020/12/23/registered-voters-and-recorded-votes-stuffed-ballots-media-censorship-lost-ballots-rigged-voting-machines/

This is a related post from 2016: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/03/31/proving-election-fraud-the-pc-spreadsheets-and-the-internet

 
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Posted by on December 30, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Massive election fraud reported in Pennsylvania

Richard Charnin – Dec. 28, 2020

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“Republican State Representative Russ Diamond uncovered and reported today that the results for President are way off in Pennsylvania. More ballots were cast than people voted by more than 200,000 votes. The difference of 202,377 more votes cast than voters voting, together with the 31,547 over- and under-votes in the presidential race, adds up to an alarming discrepancy of 170,830 votes, which is more than twice the reported statewide difference between the two major candidates for President of the United States”.

NOTE: This is in ADDITION to 1) the elimination of signature verification, 2) postmarks and 3) due dates, 4) allowing for the proliferation of drop boxes with questionable security, 5) unauthorized curing of ballots, and 6) questionable treatment of poll watchers.

Other than the above, the election was clean as a whistle. Did someone say there was no ballot stuffing?

My election fraud model indicates that Trump may have won PA by nearly one million votes. Go to row 94: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=376710386

 
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Posted by on December 28, 2020 in Uncategorized

 

Registered voters and recorded votes: Stuffed Ballots, Media censorship, lost ballots, rigged voting machines

Richard Charnin – Dec. 23, 2020

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Did Trump win a 20m vote landslide? Let’s look at the numbers. This analysis calculates various fraud components based on public estimates applied to the 2020 recorded vote.

In 2016, 136.7m voted (59.2% of the 230.9m voting age population). In 2020, the voting age population was 239.2m. Approximately 142m (66.3%) were expected to vote. But 158.4m voted, a 21.7m increase over 2016. There was a 73.9% turnout of 214.3m registered voters.

Biden won the recorded vote by 81.3-74.2m (51.4-46.9%). Assume Biden’s vote was padded by approximately 16.4m stuffed and illegal ballots. Subtracting 16.4m from Biden’s vote, Trump won by 74.2-64.9m.

But the stuffed/illegal/dead voter ballots were not the only components of massive fraud. Assume: 1) 16.4m stuffed/illegal ballots, 2) 7% of votes flipped from Trump to Biden by media censorship/bias, 3) 1% of Trump ballots were lost (discarded), 4) 2% of Trump’s votes were flipped to Biden on rigged voting machines. Applying the adjustments, Trump won a landslide: 82.3-57.5m (57.7-40.3%) and had approximately 393 EV. Note: if there were 8 million illegal/stuffed ballots , Trump wins by 82.3-65.8m (54.5-43.6%).

William Edward Binney is a former intelligence official with the United States National Security Agency (NSA) and whistleblower. He retired on October 31, 2001, after more than 30 years with the agency. Bill Binney, Constitutional Patriot@Bill_Binney: “Judicial Watch reports from sample of 353 counties in 31 states had more than 100% eligible people registered. That’s 1.8 million more registered that eligible. And, congress+media expect us to believe no fraud? Had to be a good number of dead/illegal included. That’s 353 counties of over 3000. Assuming even distribution, that means something over 15 million total for the whole country”.

Note: Binney’s estimate of 15 million more registered than eligible voters is close to my estimate of 16.4 million stuffed ballots/illegal voters.

Fraud Adjusted BidenTrumpOther
Recorded (000)81,26474,2172,903
Share51.3%46.9%1.8%
Media flip7.0%5,688
Stuffed/illegal/dead voters20.2%16,415
Lost ballots1.0%813
Voting Machine flip2.0%1,625
Adjusted Vote (000)57,53582,3432,903
Share40.3%57.7%2.0%

Sensitivity Analysis

Votes in thousandsMedia flip
4.0%7.0%10.0%
Machine vote flipTrump share
3%56.5%58.2%59.9%
2%56.0%57.7%59.4%
1%55.4%57.1%58.8%
Trump votes
3%80,71883,15685,594
2%79,90582,34384,781
1%79,09381,53183,969
Biden votes
3%59,16056,72254,284
2%59,97357,53555,097
1%60,78558,34855,910
Trump Margin
3%21,55826,43431,310
2%19,93324,80829,684
1%18,30723,18328,059

Voter Turnout: adjusted Gallup Party-ID

PartyTurnoutParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem39.9m30.2%88.0%12.0%0.0%
Rep43.4m31.5%3.0%96.0%1.0%
Ind52.1m38.2%38.0%57.0%5.0%
Vote share100.0%42.1%55.7%2.2%
Votes142.059.879.13.2
Margin/EV19.3m145EV393EV

Returning voters based on 2020 National Exit poll: Trump 43%, Clinton 40%, Other/did not vote 17%. Assumed 2016 Voter Turnout in 2020: Trump 98%, Clinton 94%,Other 94%; 2016 voter mortality 4%.

Returning 2016 VotersPct MixBidenTrumpOther
Clinton34.6%92%7%1%
Trump38.8%3%96%1%
Other/DNV14.7%37%55%8%
New Voters11.9%41%52%7%
Vote share100.0%43.3%53.9%2.7%
Vote (millions)142.061.576.63.9
Margin15.1

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/number-of-registered-voters-by-state

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/12/breaking-huge-simple-math-shows-biden-claims-13-million-votes-eligible-voters-voted-2020-election/

 
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Posted by on December 23, 2020 in Uncategorized