Introducing the 2020 Race Sensitivity Analysis Model

Richard Charnin Nov. 19,2021

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Check out the 2020 election state race analysis model.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=1465733498

Trump’s racial shares are forced to match the Cyber Symposium PCAPS using the 2020 Census state votes for each racial group. The sensitivity analysis consists of 25 scenarios over a range of Trump shares of white and black voters.

For example, to match the AZ Cyber Symposium vote, Trump had 61% of whites, 13% of blacks, 44% of Hispanics, 34% of Asians and 41% of Others and had a 270,000 base case vote margin. The worst case margin is 79,000. The best case is 460,000. Biden “won” the rigged AZ election by 10,500 votes.

Race Census	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Other
U.S. Share	71.0%	12.2%	10.6%	4.5%	1.6%
AZ Vote	2,385	179	814	107	164
AZ Share	65.4%	4.9%	22.3%	2.9%	4.5%
Trump share	61.0%	13.0%	44.0%	34.0%	41.0%
Biden share	37.0%	87.0%	55.0%	61.0%	55.0%
Other share	2.0%	1.0%	1.0%	5.0%	4.0%
ARIZONA	Trump	Biden	Other	Total	Margin
Cyber votes	1,802	1,532	53	3,387	270
Reported votes	1,662	1,672	53	3,387	-10.5
Cyber share	53.2%	45.2%	1.6%	100%	8.0%
Reported share	49.1%	49.4%	1.6%	100%	-0.3%

% Hispanic	AZ	Trump	% White
44.0%	57%	59%	61%	63%	65%
% Black			Margin
17%	106	194	283	371	460
15%	99	188	276	365	453
13%	92	181	270	358	447
11%	86	174	263	351	440
9%	79	168	256	345	433
			Trump
17%	50.8%	52.1%	53.4%	54.7%	56.0%
15%	50.7%	52.0%	53.3%	54.6%	55.9%
13%	50.6%	51.9%	53.2%	54.5%	55.8%
11%	50.5%	51.8%	53.1%	54.4%	55.7%
9%	50.4%	51.7%	53.0%	54.3%	55.6%
			Biden
17%	47.7%	46.3%	45.0%	43.7%	42.4%
15%	47.8%	46.4%	45.1%	43.8%	42.5%
13%	47.8%	46.5%	45.2%	43.9%	42.6%
11%	47.9%	46.6%	45.3%	44.0%	42.7%
9%	48.0%	46.7%	45.4%	44.1%	42.8%
			Trump
17%	1,720	1,764	1,808	1,853	1,897
15%	1,717	1,761	1,805	1,849	1,894
13%	1,713	1,758	1,802	1,846	1,890
11%	1,710	1,754	1,798	1,843	1,887
9%	1,707	1,751	1,795	1,839	1,884
			Biden
17%	1,614	1,570	1,526	1,481	1,437
15%	1,617	1,573	1,529	1,485	1,440
13%	1,621	1,576	1,532	1,488	1,444
11%	1,624	1,580	1,536	1,491	1,447
9%	1,627	1,583	1,539	1,495	1,450

 

2020 Exit Poll probability analysis: reported and Cyber Symposium

Richard Charnin Nov.12, 2021

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Biden won the 24 unadjusted state exit polls by 52.6-44.9% and the national vote by 51.3-46.9%.

Trump won the corresponding 24 state Cyber vote by 50.3-47.9%; The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in15 states .

Probability P = 1 in 64 million that Trump would have 44.9% in the 24 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (1.55% MoE) and 50.3% in the Cyber vote: P= normdist (.503, .449, 1.55%/1.96, True)

Probability P = 1 in 16.7 million that 24 states would move to Trump in the Cyber vote from the unadjusted exit poll: P= binomdist (24, 24, 0.5, false)

	Cyber	Cyber	Cyber	Recorded	Diff
Exit Polled	Trump	Biden	Margin	Margin	Margin
24 states	50.31%	47.89%	2.42%	-4.45%	6.87%
AL	66.2%	32.4%	33.7%	24.9%	8.8%
AZ	53.2%	45.2%	8.0%	-1.1%	9.1%
CA	38.4%	59.4%	-20.9%	-30.6%	9.7%
CO	46.0%	51.3%	-5.3%	-15.0%	9.7%
FL	55.4%	43.7%	11.7%	2.9%	8.8%
GA	53.4%	45.3%	8.1%	-0.9%	8.9%
IA	57.2%	40.7%	16.4%	7.3%	9.2%
KY	66.2%	32.0%	34.2%	25.3%	8.9%
ME	48.0%	49.1%	-1.1%	-10.7%	9.6%
MI	52.0%	46.5%	5.5%	-3.6%	9.1%
MN	49.4%	48.3%	1.1%	-8.4%	9.5%
MT	61.0%	36.4%	24.5%	15.3%	9.2%
NC	54.1%	44.4%	9.6%	0.6%	9.0%
NH	49.4%	48.5%	0.9%	-8.4%	9.3%
NV	47.6%	45.9%	1.7%	-3.6%	5.3%
NY	41.9%	56.7%	-14.8%	-24.0%	9.2%
OH	57.4%	41.1%	16.3%	7.3%	9.0%
OR	44.4%	52.4%	-7.9%	-17.9%	10.0%
PA	53.0%	45.8%	7.2%	-1.8%	8.9%
SC	59.2%	39.3%	20.0%	11.0%	8.9%
TX	56.2%	42.3%	13.9%	4.9%	9.0%
VA	48.1%	50.0%	-1.9%	-11.2%	9.3%
WA	42.8%	53.9%	-11.1%	-21.2%	10.1%
WI	52.9%	45.3%	7.6%	-1.5%	9.1%

Trump margin deviations from exit poll

	Exit Poll	Exit Poll	Cyber	Diff	Diff –	Diff >
	MoE	Margin	Margin	Margin	MoE	MoE
US	1.55%	-6.40%	2.42%	8.82%	7.27%	15
AL	5.5%	14.5%	33.7%	19.2%	13.7%	Yes
AZ	4.7%	-5.6%	8.0%	9.1%	4.3%
CA	3.9%	-25.0%	-20.9%	9.7%	5.7%	Yes
CO	4.6%	-17.9%	-5.3%	9.7%	5.1%	Yes
FL	2.5%	0.4%	11.7%	8.8%	6.2%	Yes
GA	2.9%	-2.8%	8.1%	8.9%	6.0%	Yes
IA	3.8%	-0.9%	16.4%	9.2%	5.4%	Yes
KY	4.7%	17.1%	34.2%	8.9%	4.2%
ME	5.0%	-13.9%	-1.1%	9.6%	4.5%
MI	3.7%	-9.2%	5.5%	9.1%	5.4%	Yes
MN	3.5%	-7.4%	1.1%	9.5%	6.0%	Yes
MT	5.6%	8.1%	24.5%	9.2%	3.5%
NC	2.8%	-0.9%	9.6%	9.0%	6.2%	Yes
NH	4.0%	-10.1%	0.9%	9.3%	5.2%	Yes
NV	3.0%	-6.2%	1.7%	5.3%	2.2%
NY	6.2%	-27.2%	-14.8%	9.2%	3.0%
OH	2.5%	5.3%	16.3%	9.0%	6.5%	Yes
OR	7.3%	-17.5%	-7.9%	10.0%	2.7%
PA	3.5%	-3.0%	7.2%	8.9%	5.4%	Yes
SC	4.7%	6.2%	20.0%	8.9%	4.2%
TX	2.8%	6.6%	13.9%	9.0%	6.2%	Yes
VA	2.8%	-11.2%	-1.9%	9.3%	6.5%	Yes
WA	7.1%	-16.7%	-11.1%	10.1%	2.9%
WI	3.1%	-8.0%	7.6%	9.1%	6.1%	Yes

 

2020 Unadjusted state exit polls vs. recorded votes vs. Cyber Symposium PCAPS vote share

Richard Charnin Nov. 14, 2021

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Unadjusted exit polls have always been adjusted in published final polls to match the recorded vote. The exit pollsters at Edison Research claimed they do this because their polls were wrong; they assume the vote counts were accurate. But the pollsters never considered or noted that election fraud was a major factor in the discrepancies. And the corrupt media and politicians maintain the myth that election fraud is a non-existent conspiracy theory.

But mathematical analysts are not fooled. The unadjusted 2000 and 2004 exit polls were fairly accurate and close to the True Vote. Gore and Kerry won easily. The polls proved to be excellent indicators of election fraud. But starting in 2016, the polls have been rigged to match the bogus popular vote.

Let’s compare the Cyber Symposium PCAP votes to the unadjusted exit polls and recorded votes. In the 24 states polled in 2020, Trump’s weighted average PCAPS vote share was 50.3%. He had a 44.9% unadjusted exit poll share and a 46.2% reported share. Trump’s Cyber shares were higher than the exit poll and reported shares in every state.

Bottom line: Don’t trust unadjusted exit polls. They are no different from biased pre-election polls which are just propaganda to set false expectations and influence the public.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=584196755

https://thebiglie.frankspeech.com/US/compare/index.html

https://tdmsresearch.com/

 

The Cyber Symposium PCAPS machine-flipped vote data for every state and county proves massive 2020 Election Fraud

Richard Charnin Nov. 12, 2021

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The Cyber Symposium displays PCAPs (IP “Packet Captures”) of rigged electronic votes for every U.S. county. It proves beyond any doubt that the 2020 election was stolen. Thanks to Mike Lindell and others involved in providing the IP data to the public. The BIG LIE is that Biden won by 81.7-74.2 million votes. The TRUTH is that Trump won by 80.7-74.7 million. And this is conservative. It is based only on computer packets that flipped votes. But there were millions of illegal ballots that were stuffed or lost, virtually all for Biden.

Trump won AZ by 270,000 votes. But the Dems stole the state and Biden “won” by 10,500. Trump’s votes were electronically flipped to Biden in every AZ county (note his decline in margins). Based on the PCAPS, Trump had a minimum of 325 electoral votes. He won MN, NV, NH as well as all contested Battleground states.

AZ Counties	Recorded	Recorded	Cyber	Adjusted Margin
	Biden	Trump	Trump	Trump
Total	1,672,143	1,661,686	1,801,424	279,476
Apache	23,293	11,442	12,903	2,922
Cochise	23,732	35,557	38,050	4,986
Coconino	44,698	27,052	30,069	6,034
Gila	8,943	18,377	19,526	2,298
Graham	4,034	10,749	11,370	1,242
Greenlee	1,182	2,433	2,585	304
La Paz	2,236	5,129	5,438	618
Maricopa	1,040,774	995,665	1,081,320	171,310
Mohave	24,831	78,535	82,882	8,694
Navajo	23,383	27,657	29,823	4,332
Pima	304,981	207,758	229,324	43,132
Pinal	75,106	107,077	114,239	14,324
Santa Cruz	13,138	6,194	7,007	1,626
Yavapai	49,602	91,527	97,463	11,872
Yuma	32,210	36,534	39,425	5,782

https://thebiglie.frankspeech.com/ARIZONA/index.html

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2021/11/11/arizona-2020-election-fraud-exit-poll-vs-cyber-symposium/?fbclid=IwAR1q_OSipI0e1oB-HAxZGa4lj22bcVXFkOhQpIeLRlBxPq6RTsuQhlVH_Zc

 

Arizona 2020 Election Fraud: Exit Poll vs. Cyber Symposium

Richard Charnin Nov. 11, 2021

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

According to the Cyber Symposium (PCAPS), Trump won AZ by 270,000 votes.

The AZ exit poll Race demographic indicates that Trump lost by 87,000 votes. The poll understates Trump’s shares of whites and Hispanics. I used Census race weights and adjusted the vote shares to match the Cyber vote.

The AZ exit poll Party-ID demographic indicates a 35-26% edge in Republicans over Democrats. Trump won this category by 22,000 votes, even though the poll grossly understates his shares of Democrats, Republicans and Independents.

Biden won the AZ reported vote by 10,000. Exit polls are always adjusted to match the reported vote. Pollsters never consider the election fraud factor. What are the reasons for the exit poll anomalies?

AZ Party ID	Pct	Biden	Trump	Other	Margin
Dem	26%	96%	3%	1%	-93%
Rep	35%	9%	90%	1%	81%
Ind	39%	53%	44%	3%	-9%
Exit Poll	100%	48.8%	49.4%	1.8%	0.66%
Exit Poll	3,387	1,652	1,674	60	22
Reported	100%	49.4%	49.1%	1.5%	-0.31%
Reported	3,387	1,672	1,662	53.2	-10.4

AZ Race	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	74%	52%	46%	2%	6%
Black	2%	12%	87%	1%	-75%
Hispanic	19%	37%	61%	2%	-24%
Asian	2%	34%	61%	5%	-27%
Other	3%	41%	55%	4%	-13%
Exit Poll	3,387	47.7%	50.2%	2.1%	-2.6%
Exit Poll	3,387	1,614	1,702	71	-87
Reported	3,387	49.1%	49.4%	1.6%	-0.3%
Reported	3,387	1,662	1,672	53	-10

AZ Cyber	Census	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	2,385	65.4%	61%	37%	2%	24%
Black	179	4.9%	12%	87%	1%	-75%
Hispanic	814	22.3%	44%	55%	1%	-11%
Asian	107	2.9%	34%	61%	5%	-27%
Other	164	4.5%	41%	55%	4%	-14%
Calc	3,649	100.0%	53.1%	45.0%	1.9%	8.1%
Calc	3,649		1,938	1,641	70	297
Cyber	3,387		53.2%	45.2%	1.6%	8.0%
Cyber	3,387		1,801	1,531	55	270

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/arizona

https://thebiglie.frankspeech.com/US/compare/index.html

 

Pennsylvania 2020 fraud: Exit poll and Cyber Symposium

Richard Charnin Nov. 11, 2021

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

Trump won the final Pennsylvania Exit Poll Race category by 10,000 votes (even though it grossly understated his shares of whites, blacks and Hispanics). Biden won the Party-ID category by 103,000 (understating Trump’s shares of Republicans and Independents). The Dems rigged the election and Biden “won” PA by 81,000 votes.

But Trump won PA in a 495,000 vote landslide according to the Cyber Symposium (PCAPS). I used Census race weights and adjusted the vote shares to match the Cyber vote.

PA Exit Poll –Race	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other
White	81%	57%	42%	1%
Black	11%	7%	92%	1%
Hispanic	5%	27%	69%	4%
Asian	1%	34%	61%	5%
Other	2%	41%	55%	4%	Margin
Calc	6,915	49.5%	49.3%	1.2%	0.2%
Calc	6,915	3,341	3,331	84	10
Reported	6,915	48.9%	50.0%	1.1%	-1.1%
Reported	6,915	3,378	3,458	79	-80

PA Cyber	Census	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other
White	5,634	83.4%	59%	39%	2%
Black	694	10.3%	14%	84%	2%
Hispanic	270	4.0%	38%	58%	4%
Asian	84	1.2%	34%	61%	5%
Other	74	1.1%	41%	55%	4%	Margin
Match	6,756	100.0%	53.0%	45.8%	2.1%	8.2%
Match	6,756		3,583	3,029	145	554
Cyber	6,915		53.0%	45.9%	1.1%	7.1%
Cyber	6,915		3,665	3,171	79	494

PA -Party ID	Pct	Biden	Trump	Other	Margin
Dem	40%	92%	7%	1%	1%
Rep	41%	8%	91%	1%	0%
Ind	19%	52%	44%	4%	5%
Calc	100%	50.0%	48.5%	1.5%	-1.5%
Calc	6,915	3,455	3,352	109	-103
Recorded	100%	50.0%	48.9%	1.1%	-1.1%
Recorded	6,915	3,458	3,378	79	-80

https://publicinterestlegal.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Mail-Voting-2012_2020-1P-PA.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1hxnNLzIFMVjmz-SCoAs7k22XGy21t_HB2WNj3RyXod0i78BfNG3Y23Zg

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/pennsylvania

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=639160994

https://thebiglie.frankspeech.com/US/compare/index.html

 

Cyber Symposium and 2020 RACE state vote census refute reported exit polls/votes

Richard Charnin Nov.6, 2021

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The Cyber Symposium state results and the 2020 RACE vote census refute the bogus recorded votes of 24 state race exit polls and 26 other states. The race vote shares are forced to match the Cyber margins.

Most of the fraud was in White vote shares , but also in shares of Blacks and Hispanics. Note the difference in the state reported vote margin and Cyber margin.

View all Cyber Symposium stats, Census race breakdowns and bogus reported/exit poll vote tables.

National Exit Poll – forced to match reported vote

US Exit Poll	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	67%	58%	41%	1%
Black	13%	12%	87%	1%
Hispanic	13%	32%	65%	3%
Asian	4%	34%	61%	5%
Other	3%	41%	55%	4%
Calc	100%	47.17%	51.32%	1.51%	-4.15%
Reported	158,384	46.86%	51.31%	1.83%	-4.45%
Reported	158,384	74,217	81,269	2,898	-7,052

National vote (adjust Trump white vote share to match Cyber)

US (adj)	Census	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	109,830	71.0%	62%	37%	1%
Black	18,922	12.2%	12%	87%	1%
Hispanic	16,459	10.6%	32%	65%	3%
Asian	6,881	4.5%	34%	61%	5%
Other	2,535	1.6%	41%	55%	4%
Calc	154,627	100%	51.10%	47.46%	1.44%	3.64%
Cyber	158,383		50.98%	47.19%	1.83%	3.79%
Cyber	158,384		80,744	74,740	2,900	6,004

AZ	Exit Poll	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	74%	52%	46%	2%
Black	2%	12%	87%	1%	n/a
Hispanic	19%	37%	61%	2%
Asian	2%	34%	61%	5%	n/a
Other	3%	41%	55%	4%	n/a
Calc	3,387	47.7%	50.2%	2.1%	-2.5%
Calc	3,387	1,614	1,702	71	-87
Reported	3,387	49.1%	49.4%	1.6%	-0.3%
Reported	3,387	1,662	1,672	53	-10

AZ Cyber	Census	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	2,385	65.4%	61%	37%	2%
Black	179	4.9%	12%	87%	1%
Hispanic	814	22.3%	44%	55%	1%
Asian	107	2.9%	34%	61%	5%
Other	164	4.5%	41%	55%	4%
Match	3,649	100.0%	53.1%	45.0%	1.9%	8.1%
Match	3,649		1,938	1,641	70	297
Cyber	3,387		53.2%	45.2%	1.6%	8.0%
Cyber	3,387		1,802	1,532	53	270

FL	Exit Poll	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	6,862	62%	62%	37%	1%
Black	1,549	14%	10%	89%	1%
Hispanic	2,103	19%	46%	53%	1%
Asian	111	1%	34%	61%	5%	na
Other	443	4%	44%	55%	1%
Calc	11,067	100%	50.7%	48.3%	3.3%	2.4%
Calc	11,067		4,926	4,693	1,449	233
Reported	11,067		51.2%	47.9%	0.9%	3.3%
Reported	11,067		5,669	5,297	102	372

FL Cyber	Census	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	6,260	64.4%	66%	33%	1%
Black	1,375	14.1%	14%	85%	1%
Hispanic	1,789	18.4%	53%	46%	1%
Asian	257	2.6%	34%	61%	5%
Other	39	0.4%	44%	55%	1%
Match	9,720	100.0%	55.3%	43.6%	1.1%	11.7%
Match	9,720		5,377	4,236	107	1,141
Cyber	11,067		55.3%	43.7%	1.2%	11.6%
Cyber	11,067		6,122	4,832	113	1,290

GA	Exit Poll	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	3,050	61%	69%	30%	1%
Black	1,450	29%	11%	88%	1%
Hispanic	350	7%	37%	62%	1%
Asian	50	1%	34%	61%	5%	na
Other	100	2%	38%	58%	4%
Calc	5,000	100.0%	49.0%	49.9%	1.1%	-1.0%
Calc	5,000		2,394	2,441	165.7	-47
Reported	5,000		49.2%	49.5%	1.3%	-0.3%
Reported	5,000		2,462	2,474	64	-12

GA Cyber	Census	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	2,947	60.3%	78%	21%	1%
Black	1,608	32.9%	12%	87%	1%
Hispanic	178	3.6%	37%	58%	5%
Asian	116	2.4%	34%	61%	5%
Other	39	0.8%	38%	58%	4%
Match	4,888	100.0%	53.4%	45.3%	1.3%	8.1%
Match	4,888		2,612	2,214	61.8	397
Cyber	5,000		53.4%	45.3%	1.3%	8.1%
Cyber	5,000		2,669	2,266	65.0	403

MI	Exit Poll	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	81%	55%	44%	2%
Black	12%	7%	92%	1%
Hispanic	3%	44%	55%	1%
Asian	1%	34%	61%	5%	na
Other	3%	41%	55%	4%	na
Calc	5,539	48.3%	50.6%	1.9%	-2.3%
Calc	5,539	2,674	2,802	63	-128
Reported	5,539	47.8%	50.6%	1.54%	-2.8%
Reported	5,539	2,650	2,804	85	-154

MI Cyber	Census	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	3,997	80.0%	59%	39%	2%
Black	628	12.6%	14%	86%	0%
Hispanic	165	3.3%	44%	55%	1%
Asian	65	1.3%	34%	61%	5%
Other	139	2.8%	41%	55%	4%
Match	4,994	100.0%	52.0%	46.2%	1.8%	5.8%
Match	4,994		2,598	2,306	90	292
Cyber	5,539		52.0%	46.5%	1.7%	5.5%
Cyber	5,539		2,879	2,575	85	304

MN	Exit Poll	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	81%	47%	51%	2%
Black	9%	21%	77%	2%
Hispanic	4%	38%	60%	2%
Asian	3%	34%	61%	5%	na
Other	3%	41%	55%	4%	na
Calc	3,277	43.7%	54.1%	2.2%	-10.4%
Calc	3,277	1,410	1,745	122	-335
Reported	3,277	45.3%	52.4%	2.3%	-7.1%
Reported	3,277	1,484	1,717	76	-233

MN Cyber	Census	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	2,840	88.1%	53%	46%	1%
Black	130	4.0%	15%	84%	1%
Hispanic	98	3.0%	38%	60%	2%
Asian	74	2.3%	34%	61%	5%
Other	83	2.6%	41%	55%	4%
Match	3,225	100.0%	50.3%	48.5%	1.2%	1.8%
Match	3,225		1,621	1,565	39	56
Cyber	3,277		50.2%	49.1%	0.7%	1.1%
Cyber	3,277		1,619	1,582	76	37

NV	Exit Poll	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	65%	56%	43%	1%
Black	7%	18%	80%	2%
Hispanic	17%	35%	61%	4%
Asian	5%	35%	64%	1%
Other	6%	54%	42%	4%
Calc	1,405	48.6%	49.6%	1.8%	-1.0%
Calc	1,405	657	671	24	-14
Reported	1,405	47.7%	50.1%	2.3%	-2.4%
Reported	1,405	670	703	32	-34

NV Cyber	Census	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	827	61.2%	61%	36%	3%
Black	136	10.1%	19%	80%	1%
Hispanic	239	17.7%	47%	52%	1%
Asian	134	9.9%	35%	64%	1%
Other	15	1.1%	54%	44%	2%
Match	1,351	100.0%	51.6%	46.1%	2.3%	5.5%
Match	1,351		697	623	31	74
Cyber	1,405		51.8%	46.0%	2.3%	5.8%
Cyber	1,405		728	646	31	82

PA	Exit Poll	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	81%	57%	42%	1%
Black	11%	7%	92%	1%
Hispanic	5%	27%	69%	4%
Asian	1%	34%	61%	5%	na
Other	2%	41%	55%	4%	na
Calc	6,915	49.5%	49.3%	1.3%	0.15%
Calc	6,915	3,341	3,331	84	10
Reported	6,915	48.84%	50.01%	1.15%	-1.16%
Reported	6,915	3,378	3,458	79	-81

PA Cyber	Census	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	5,634	83.4%	59%	40%	2%
Black	694	10.3%	14%	84%	2%
Hispanic	270	4.0%	38%	58%	4%
Asian	84	1.2%	34%	61%	5%
Other	74	1.1%	41%	55%	4%
Match	6,756	100.0%	53.0%	45.7%	1.3%	7.3%
Match	6,756		3,583	3,085	145	498
Cyber	6,915		53.0%	45.9%	1.1%	7.1%
Cyber	6,915		3,665	3,171	79	494

TX	Exit Poll	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	60%	66%	33%	1%
Black	12%	9%	90%	1%
Hispanic	23%	41%	58%	1%
Asian	3%	30%	63%	7%
Other	2%	56%	42%	2%
Calc	11,315	52.13%	46.67%	1.20%	5.46%
Calc	11,315	5,899	5,281	136	618
Reported	11,315	52.06%	46.48%	1.46%	5.58%
Reported	11,315	5,890	5,259	166	631

TX Cyber	Census	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	6,785	57.1%	67%	24%	9%
Black	1,521	12.8%	14%	85%	1%
Hispanic	2,972	25.0%	47%	51%	2%
Asian	482	4.1%	30%	63%	7%
Other	114	1.0%	56%	42%	2%
Match	11,874	100.0%	53.60%	40.33%	6.07%	13.27%
Match	11,874		6,364	4,789	721	1,576
Cyber	11,315		53.55%	40.34%	6.11%	13.21%
Cyber	11,315		6,359	4,790	166	1,569

WI	Exit Poll	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	86%	52%	46%	2%
Black	6%	8%	92%	0%
Hispanic	4%	37%	60%	3%
Asian	1%	34%	61%	5%	na
Other	2%	41%	55%	4%	na
Calc	3,253	47.8%	49.2%	2.0%	-1.6%
Calc	3,253	1,556	1,600	64	-44
Reported	3,298	48.8%	49.4%	1.7%	-1.6%
Reported	3,298	1,610	1,631	57	-21

WI Cyber	Census	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other	Margin
White	2,914	89.6%	56%	43%	1%
Black	114	3.5%	13%	86%	1%
Hispanic	101	3.1%	37%	60%	3%
Asian	44	1.4%	34%	61%	5%
Other	80	2.5%	41%	55%	4%
Match	3,253	100.0%	53.2%	45.6%	1.2%	7.6%
Match	3,253		1,732	1,483	39	249
Cyber	3,298		52.9%	45.3%	1.7%	7.6%
Cyber	3,298		1,746	1,495	57	251

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/

 

Colorado 2020 Election: Indications of Fraud

Colorado 2020 election: Math Indications of fraud

Richard Charnin Oct. 27, 2021

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

The CO Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote Biden (55.4-41.9%). How did Biden get 57% of whites in CO if Trump had 58% nationally? For the poll to match the recorded vote, CO Exit Poll vote shares had to be INCREASED for Trump! The sensitivity analysis below shows that Trump would have won CO if he had just 51% of the white vote.

Note that the Census indicates 2,827,000 voted in CO compared to the 3,256,000 reported. Could there have been an estimated 430,000 STUFFED BALLOTS? Where is the CO Forensic audit?

National Exit Poll – adjusted to match the total U.S. reported vote

NEP	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other
White	67%	58%	41%	1%
Black	13%	12%	87%	1%
Hispanic	13%	32%	65%	3%
Asian	4%	34%	61%	5%
Other	3%	41%	55%	4%
Reported	100%	47.17%	51.32%	1.51%

CO Exit Poll – adjusted to match the CO reported vote. Biden wins by 440,000 votes

CO	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other
White	79%	41%	57%	2%
Black	3%	16%	80%	4%
Hispanic	12%	49%	47%	4%
Asian	2%	53%	42%	5%
Other	4%	53%	38%	9%
Total	100%	41.9%	55.4%	2.7%
Reported	100%	41.9%	55.4%	2.7%
Votes	3,256	1,364	1,804	88

National Exit Poll vote shares and CO Census voting weights. Trump wins by 212,000 votes.

CO	Census	Census	NEP	NEP	NEP
Adjust	Votes	Pct	Trump	Biden	Other
White	2,316	81.6%	58%	41%	1%
Black	96	3.4%	12%	87%	1%
Hispanic	315	11.1%	32%	65%	3%
Asian	50	1.8%	34%	61%	5%
Other	60	2.1%	41%	55%	4%
Total	2,837	100.0%	53.0%	45.5%	1.5%
Reported	3,256	100.0%	41.9%	55.4%	2.7%
Census Votes		2837	1503	1291	44

Sensitivity Analysis – Trump wins by 31,000 with 51% of the white vote

% Hispanic	CO	Trump	% White
43%	43%	45%	47%	49%	51%
% Black			Margin
29%	-377	-271	-164	-58	48
27%	-381	-275	-169	-62	44
25%	-386	-280	-173	-67	40
23%	-390	-284	-178	-71	35
21%	-395	-288	-182	-76	31
			Trump
29%	42.9%	44.5%	46.1%	47.8%	49.4%
27%	42.8%	44.4%	46.1%	47.7%	49.3%
25%	42.7%	44.4%	46.0%	47.6%	49.3%
23%	42.7%	44.3%	45.9%	47.6%	49.2%
21%	42.6%	44.2%	45.9%	47.5%	49.1%
			Biden
29%	54.4%	52.8%	51.2%	49.5%	47.9%
27%	54.5%	52.9%	51.2%	49.6%	48.0%
25%	54.6%	52.9%	51.3%	49.7%	48.0%
23%	54.6%	53.0%	51.4%	49.7%	48.1%
21%	54.7%	53.1%	51.4%	49.8%	48.2%
		Votes	Trump
29%	1,396	1,449	1,502	1,556	1,609
27%	1,394	1,447	1,500	1,553	1,606
25%	1,392	1,445	1,498	1,551	1,604
23%	1,389	1,443	1,496	1,549	1,602
21%	1,387	1,440	1,494	1,547	1,600
		Votes	Biden
29%	1,773	1,720	1,667	1,613	1,560
27%	1,775	1,722	1,669	1,616	1,563
25%	1,777	1,724	1,671	1,618	1,565
23%	1,780	1,726	1,673	1,620	1,567
21%	1,782	1,729	1,675	1,622	1,569

2020 Census Table 4b. Reported Voting and Registration, by Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin, for States: November 2020

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=1267983589

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/colorado

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

 

2020 state vote sensitivity analysis

Richard Charnin Oct. 22, 2021

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A powerful state vote sensitivity analysis feature has been added to the 2020 Election Model.

The model will instantly generate a 5×5 matrix (25 scenarios) of Trump total vote shares and votes ( in 000) over a range of his shares of Democrats and Independents. A corresponding matrix of vote margins is also calculated.

Shares of Democrats range from 8-16%.

Shares of Independents range from 48-56%.

Trump’s share of Republicans is assumed to be 96%.

The worst case scenario is in the lowest left cell of the matrix; the most likely scenario is in the center cell, the best case is in the upper right cell.

Party-ID	Dem	Rep	Ind	Votes
AZ	34.4%	38.7%	26.9%	3,649
Trump% Rep
96%			% Dem
Trump % Ind	8%	10%	12%	14%	16%
			Share
56%	55.0%	55.7%	56.3%	57.0%	57.7%
54%	54.4%	55.1%	55.8%	56.5%	57.2%
52%	53.9%	54.6%	55.3%	56.0%	56.6%
50%	53.4%	54.0%	54.7%	55.4%	56.1%
48%	52.8%	53.5%	54.2%	54.9%	55.6%
			Votes
56%	2,006	2,031	2,056	2,081	2,106
54%	1,986	2,011	2,036	2,061	2,087
52%	1,967	1,992	2,017	2,042	2,067
50%	1,947	1,972	1,997	2,022	2,047
48%	1,927	1,952	1,977	2,003	2,028
			Biden
56%	1,583	1,558	1,533	1,508	1,483
54%	1,603	1,578	1,552	1,527	1,502
52%	1,622	1,597	1,572	1,547	1,522
50%	1,642	1,617	1,592	1,567	1,541
48%	1,662	1,636	1,611	1,586	1,561
			Margin
56%	423	473	523	573	624
54%	384	434	484	534	584
52%	344	394	445	495	545
50%	305	355	405	456	506
48%	266	316	366	416	467

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=295357622

 

CNN / FOX Biden Approval: More Fake math

Richard Charnin Oct. 19, 2021

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

This will show proof that CNN and Fox News think you’re stupid.

On Sept. 7, CNN had 49% Biden approval. On Oct. 13, after the sharp decline in Biden’s overall approval, CNN showed 50%! On Sept. 15, Fox showed 50%. On Sept. 11, The Hill had 54%. WTF!

Reuters/Ipsos (Oct. 14) is another establishment poll which is always biased. It has Biden at 47%, with 15% approval from Republicans! Compare it to Quinnipiac’s 3%.

The Oct. 18 Quinnipiac poll has Biden approval at 37% (see below).

Civiqs is an online national and state demographic survey. Biden is at 39% (see trend below).

We have the latest CNN internals. As usual, CNN underweighted the percent of Republican respondents and manipulated the poll shares to derive the bogus approval rating. All unbiased (and biased) observers should know by now that it is standard operating procedure for the media to rig pre-election and exit polls for the Democrats. For those that still don’t see this: wake up and do the math!

The following steps show how CNN may have derived 50% Biden approval, given the average current 43% Biden approval rating.

Step 1: Start with the consensus Biden approval using 2020 National Exit Poll Party-ID

Actual %	NEP party-ID	Approve	Disapprove
Dem	37	86	14
Ind	26	35	65
Rep	37	5	95
Total	100	42.8	57.2

Step 2: Adjust Party-ID

Adjust 1	CNN Party-ID	Approve	Disapprove
Dem	35	86	14
Ind	36	35	65
Rep	29	5	95
Total	100	44.2	55.8

Step 3: Adjust approval shares to derive bogus 50% CNN approval.

Adjust 2: Final CNN	Party-ID	Approve	Disapprove
Dem	35	88	12
Ind	36	45	55
Rep	29	12	88
Total	100	50.5	49.5

Quinnipiac	Party-ID	Approve	Disapprove
Dem	29	79	11
Ind	47	28	56
Rep	24	3	95
Total	100	36.8	52.3

Reuters/Ipsos	Sample	Pct	Approval
Dem	418	45.7%	81%
Rep	398	43.5%	15%
Ind	98	10.7%	34%
Total	914	100.0%	47.2%

CNN (Oct. 17) http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2021/images/10/13/rel6a.-.biden.infrastructure.economy.pdf (page 11)

Reuters/Ipsos (Oct. 14) https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-10/2021%20Ipsos%20Tracking%20-%20Core%20Political%20Presidential%20Approval%20Tracker%2010%2014%202021.pdf

Quinnipiac (Oct.18) https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3825

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Real Clear Politics Biden approval trend https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html