JFK witness groups: mortality probabilities

Richard Charnin
Nov.7, 2019

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Probabilities of unnatural deaths and homicides are calculated based on the Poisson function for the following witness groups : Warren Commission (552),  HSCA (200), Dealey Plaza (692), Simkin JFK Index (656), London Sunday Times Actuary (418).

JFK witness groups unnatural and homicide death probabilities

In 1963-1978, 78 of 122 suspicious deaths were officially ruled unnatural among 1500 JFK-related witnesses: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths = 4.3E-60 = 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion. The probability of 34 homicides = 1.3E-30 = 1 in a million trillion trillion.

There are an estimated one trillion trillion (E+24) stars in the universe.

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected based on mortality rates, therefore approximately 59 unnatural deaths were homicides (34 ruled+12 “accidents”+13 “suicides”).  Of the 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides. Therefore, there were an estimated 85 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. The probability of 85 homicides among 1500 witnesses = 1.7E-106.

Sensitivity Analysis: Probability of  n homicides, N witnesses, T= 15 years, R=0.000084 mortality rate

Expected = N*T*R	1.89	3.78	6.30
Witnesses	1500	3000	5000
Homicides		Probability
22	1.62E-16	1.03E-10	6.29E-07
34 ruled	1.28E-30	3.33E-21	9.36E-15
59	2.23E-65	1.94E-48	1.92E-36
85 estimated	1.69E-106	9.89E-82	5.73E-64

 

METHOD: POISSON PROBABILITY FUNCTION
LONDON SUNDAY TIMES ACTUARY: CALCULATION CONFIRMATION
1 in 100,000 trillion probability of 18 witness deaths by Feb. 1967
R unnatural rate	0.000209	weighted unnatural death rate
N witnesses	418	Warren Commission testified in person (source:CIA)
n deaths	18	13 unnatural; 5 natural
T years	3.26	3 years, 3 months (Nov ’63-Feb ’67)
E=R*N*T=0.000209 *418 * 3.26		E= 0.2848 expected unnatural deaths
P(13 unnatural deaths in 3.26 years) = 0.2848^13 * exp(-0.2848) / 13! = 9.80E-18
P(13) = Poisson (13, 0.2848, false)
P (13) = 1 in 102,081,079,385,890,000 = 1 in 102 thousand trillion
Calculation of R (weighted unnatural  death rate)
R = 0.000209 = (8*.000061+3*000658+2*000128)/13 (1964-66 average annual rate)
8 homicides	0.000061
3 accidents	0.000658
2 suicides	0.000128

Warren Commission	Dealey Plaza	HSCA	Simkin Index
ALAN BELMONT	Allen Sweatt	“Lummie” Lewis	Buddy Walthers
ALBERT BOGARD	Bill Decker	ALAN BELMONT	C.D. Jackson
Allen Sweatt	Billy Lovelady	Carlos Prio	Carlos Prio
Bill Decker	Buddy Walthers	Charles Nicoletti	Charles Cabell
Billy Lovelady	Charles Mentesana	DAVID MORALES	Charles Murret
BUDDY WALTHERS	Charles Nicoletti	DONALD KAYLOR	Charles Nicoletti
Charles Murret	Cliff Carter	GEORGE DE MORENSCHILDT	Clay Shaw
Cliff Carter	Clint “Lummie” Lewis	J.M. ENGLISH	Cliff Carter
DE MORENSCHILDT	David Morales	JAMES CADIGAN	Dave Yaras
DOMINGO BENAVIDES	Earl Cabell	James Weston	David Ferrie
EARLE CABELL	Frank Martin	JOHN PAISLEY	David Morales
Earlene Roberts	Ira (Jack) Beers	JOHNNY ROSELLI	Desmond Fitzgerald
Edward Voebel	J.A. Milteer	LOUIS NICHOLS	Earl Cabell
FRANK MARTIN	J.D. Tippit	MANUEL ARTIME	Eladio Del Valle
HALE BOGGS	Jack Ruby	REGIS KENNEDY	Frank Wisner
HAROLD RUSSELL	James Chaney	Robert Alan Surrey	G DeMorenschildt
J. EDGAR HOOVER	James Worrell	Thomas Karamessines	Guy Banister
JACK RUBY	Johnny Roselli	William Harvey	J.Edgar Hoover
JAMES CADIGAN	Ken O’Donnell	William Pawley	Jack Ruby
JAMES WORRELL	Lee Bowers	WILLIAM SULLIVAN	Jimmy Hoffa
KAREN CARLIN	Lee Harvey Oswald		Johnny Roselli
Ken O’Donnell	Mac Wallace		Lucien Sarti
LEE BOWERS.	Merriman Smith		Lyndon Johnson
Lummie Lewis	Roger Craig		Mac Wallace
Paul Raigorodsky	Roscoe White		Manuel Artime
Philip Geraci	Roy Kellerman		Mary Sherman
ROGER CRAIG	Thomas E. Davis		Paul Helliwell
WARREN REYNOLDS	William Whaley		Richard Cain
WILLIAM WHALEY			Roland Masferrer
			Roscoe White
			Sam Giancana
			Thomas E. Davis
			William Harvey
			William Pawley
			William Sullivan
			Winston Scott
			Dorothy Hunt
			Grant Stockdale
			J.D. Tippit
			John Paisley
			Lee Harvey Oswald
			Mary Jo Kopechne
			Mary Pinchot Meyer
			Robert F. Kennedy
			Sheffield Edwards
			Thomas Karamessines
			Bill Hunter
			Dorothy Kilgallen
			Hale Boggs
			Jim Koethe
			Merriman Smith
			Alan Belmont
			Bill Decker
			Billy Lovelady
			Earlene Roberts
			Eddie Benavides
			Florence Smith
			Gary Underhill
			James Truitt
			Karyn Kupcinet
			Ken O’Donnell
			Lee Bowers
			Lisa Howard
			Nancy Carole Tyler
			Roger Craig
			Rose Cheramie
			Roy Kellerman
			Tom Howard
			Warren Reynolds
			William Pitzer

 

 

Tulsi Sounds Like Trump

Richard Charnin
Oct. 20, 2019

First, Tulsi Gabbard’s tweet:
“Great! Thank you @HillaryClinton. You, the queen of warmongers, embodiment of corruption, and personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long, have finally come out from behind the curtain. From the day I announced my candidacy, there has been a concerted campaign to destroy my reputation. We wondered who was behind it and why. (sounds like Trump)
“Now we know — it was always you, through your proxies and powerful allies in the corporate media and war machine, afraid of the threat I pose. It’s now clear that this primary is between you and me. Don’t cowardly hide behind your proxies. Join the race directly,” said Gabbard in three tweets on Friday afternoon. (sounds like Trump)

Now from her website: https://www.tulsi2020.com
“If you look at other countries in the world who have universal health care, every one of them has some form of a role for PRIVATE insurance (sounds like Trump)……”

“As president, I will lead this country to bring about a bold change in our foreign policy that bends the arc of history away from war and towards peace. That stops wasting our resources, and our lives on REGIME CHANGE wars, and redirects our focus and energy towards peace and prosperity for all people” (sounds like Trump).… “

“Criminal justice reform is a bipartisan issue. We can bring down costs and improve outcomes by implementing alternatives to incarceration.” (sounds like Trump)… ”

“Too often, the LGBTQ community still faces discrimination in the workplace, in education, or when trying to find a home. It’s long overdue that we extend civil rights protections to the LGBTQ community and ensure equal treatment for all Americans under the law—regardless of race, sexual orientation, gender, religion, disability, or national origin.” (sounds like Trump)….”

“For a nation forged by immigrants, wrestling with the legacy of slavery and racial injustice, we continue to aspire to live up to the founding ideals of America — of freedom, equality, and justice for all. Hawaii stands as a shining example of how to heal our nation and stand united through the power of aloha. (sounds like Trump)…”

“A strong national defense and the protection of our civil liberties are equally important and compatible. We can strike the necessary balance between freedom and security by reforming our surveillance practices and directing the resources we have toward proven methods of eliminating threats to the safety and security of the American people. (sounds like Trump)…”

“Unfortunately, President Trump turned his back on the Constitution and launched retaliatory missile strikes against the Syrian government before any investigation had even begun, much less been completed. Rather than waiting for evidence, Trump acted on impulse and emotion, relying on social media posts and unverified sources originating from within territory held by al Qaeda. (I agree with Tulsi,Trump should have told the truth: Assad did not gas his own people- it was al Qaeda)…”

“We need comprehensive immigration reform to address our broken immigration laws and we need to have a serious conversation about the most effective and humane ways to compassionately secure our borders while building bridges and cooperative foreign policy with other countries. We need to ensure we have a clear, enforceable, accessible, and humane pathway to citizenship.(sounds like Trump)…”

“The time for action is now. We cannot allow partisan politics to get in the way of taking meaningful action in areas where both parties agree and that have the support of most Americans across this country.(sounds like Trump)…”

“This is the huge vulnerability that threatens our next election, that so far, unfortunately, has not been addressed. The fact that there are still many states in this country who don’t have paper ballots or any kind of auditable paper trail; to make sure that whether it’s another country, or an individual rogue actor, that comes in and tries to manipulate our votes, tries to change our votes to change the outcome of this election; our system is vulnerable to those hacks and attacks today. (sounds like Trump)…”

 

Moody’s 2020 presidential election forecast: Trump is the clear favorite.

Richard Charnin
Oct. 19, 2019

This is an analysis of Moody’s 2020 forecast. It consists of three models and assumes 2-party votes: Pocketbook, Stock and Unemployment.

In each model there are three turnout assumptions (Maximum, Average and Minimum). Trump wins if there is average or minimum Democratic turnout. He loses if Democratic turnout is at a maximum level relative to Republicans and Independents.

Compare to the 2016 election. Clinton won the popular recorded vote by 2.86 million  (48.2-46.1%). The 2016 National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote) had Trump winning Independents by 46-42%. The True Vote Model  assumes that Trump had 54% of Independents.

Trump won the TVM by nearly 9 million votes (49.9-43.6%) with 356 EV.  He had 53.4% of the TVM 2-party vote  vs. 51.4% in Moody’s Average Turnout model.

Dem Turnout	Max		Average		Min
Trump	2-party	EV	2-party	EV	2-party	EV
Wtd Average	47.8%	259	51.4%	332	54.9%	387
AL	63.0%	9	65.9%	9	67.8%	9
AK	55.6%	3	60.4%	3	64.1%	3
AZ	53.6%	11	56.0%	11	59.7%	11
AR	56.8%	6	62.0%	6	64.2%	6
CA	36.1%		39.9%		44.1%
CO	45.3%		49.3%		54.8%	9
CT	41.9%		45.8%		51.2%	7
DE	41.8%		45.9%		50.8%	3
DC	6.0%		11.8%		18.9%
FL	50.5%	29	53.4%	29	58.3%	29
GA	52.3%	16	55.2%	16	58.9%	16
HI	35.3%		38.9%		42.3%
ID	61.1%	4	68.0%	4	71.3%	4
IL	40.2%		43.6%		47.1%
IN	56.8%	11	60.0%	11	61.7%	11
IA	51.5%	6	54.5%	6	57.1%	6
KS	55.0%	6	61.6%	6	64.4%	6
KY	61.3%	8	64.9%	8	66.6%	8
LA	57.5%	8	61.4%	8	63.9%	8
ME	42.9%		49.1%		55.5%	4
MD	36.0%		40.6%		45.1%
MA	36.0%		39.1%		44.3%
MI	47.3%		51.0%	16	55.5%	16
MN	45.7%		50.1%	10	53.0%	10
MS	59.8%	6	61.3%	6	63.0%	6
MO	53.3%	10	58.8%	10	62.1%	10
MT	58.9%	3	61.9%	3	64.2%	3
NE	59.1%	5	64.1%	5	67.6%	5
NV	44.4%		49.3%		54.6%	6
NH	46.9%		51.2%	4	58.8%	4
NJ	43.9%		46.8%		51.1%	14
NM	43.7%		47.0%		50.4%	5
NY	39.3%		41.9%		45.7%
NC	50.4%	15	54.0%	15	57.6%	15
ND	61.5%	3	66.7%	3	68.6%	3
OH	51.8%	18	55.2%	18	58.3%	18
OK	62.4%	7	68.9%	7	71.4%	7
OR	41.1%		45.7%		50.4%	7
PA	49.3%		51.8%	20	54.3%	20
RI	40.3%		44.0%		48.2%
SC	56.9%	9	59.3%	9	62.6%	9
SD	58.1%	3	63.7%	3	66.4%	3
TN	60.4%	11	63.8%	11	65.9%	11
TX	56.4%	38	59.0%	38	59.0%	38
UT	57.2%	6	64.3%	6	67.5%	6
VT	32.7%		37.2%		43.6%
VA	46.5%		50.7%	13	54.8%	13
WA	40.6%		44.5%		48.7%
WV	63.9%	5	67.9%	5	72.0%	5
WI	47.8%		51.3%	10	54.9%	10
WY	65.7%	3	72.8%	3	75.8%	3

2016 True Vote Model

	Gallup		NEP shares
Votes	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
Dem	32.0%	88.4%	9.8%	0.0%	1.8%
Rep	28.0%	6.0%	90.0%	4.0%	0.0%
Ind	40.0%	34.0% (adj)	54.0% (adj)	6.0%	4.0%
Shares	99.20%	43.6%	49.9%	3.5%	2.2%
Votes	135,535	59,526	68,227	4,809	2,973
Margin	8,700	182 EV	356 EV

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=1929995942

 

 

So now the desperate HRC calls Jill Stein and Tulsi Gabbard Russian assets?

Richard Charnin
Oct. 19, 2019

So now desperate HRC calls Jill Stein and Tulsi Gabbard Russian assets? And the MSM still want us to believe that she would not be so corrupt as to try and steal both the primary and general election? And that she won the popular vote by 2.8 million RECORDED votes? Yet they call me a conspiracy theorist when I provide mathematical analysis which indicates that Trump won in a landslide.

Consider third party votes.

1) Jill Stein had 1.45 million RECORDED votes (1.07%), but she probably had at least 3 million true votes, of which 1.5 million were stolen by HRC. So Clinton’s 2.8 million RECORDED margin is reduced to 1.3 million.

2) Assuming Johnson’s RECORDED vote (4.48 million,3.29%) would have gone to Trump, then he would have had a 3.2 million margin (1.5+4.5 -2.8 RECORDED) if Johnson did not run.

3) The 3rd party adjustments do not include additional fraud committed by the DNC in 2016. This is just one indication that Trump is headed for an even bigger landslide in 2020.

https://www.newsweek.com/rep-tulsi-gabbard-has-harsh-words-hillary-clinton-you-queen-warmongers-embodiment-1466382?

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2019/10/15/exposing-the-fox-news-impeachment-poll-scam-the-msm-always-over-weights-democrat-party-id/

 

Exposing the Fox News Impeachment Poll Scam: The MSM always over-weights Democrat Party-ID

Richard Charnin
Updated: Oct. 17, 2019

A Fox News poll  said 51% of voters were in favor of Trump’s impeachment and removal from office, while 40% did not want him impeached.

Princeton, New Jersey, pollster Braun Research, which conducted the survey, noted that 48% of its respondents were Democrats. https://nypost.com/2019/10/12/fox-news-pollster-braun-research-misrepresented-impeachment-poll-analysis/

But the latest Gallup Voter Affiliation survey indicates a 31% Democrat, 29% Republican, 38% Independent electorate split. With this change, 38.7% want Trump impeached while 50.4% are opposed.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Fox……….Approve Oppose
Rep 22%………4.0% 87.0%
Dem 48%……87.0% 4.0%
Ind 30%……..27.9% 63.1%
Poll………….51.0% 40.0%

Gallup Voter Affiliation
Gallup……Approve Oppose
Rep 29%………4.0% 87.0%
Dem 31%……87.0% 4.0%
Ind 38%……..27.9% 63.1%
Adjusted…..38.7% 50.4%

 

 

Trump 2016 Landslide? Do the Math

Richard Charnin
Oct. 13, 2019

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The following analysis indicates how Trump may have won the True Vote by 9-13 million…and the electoral vote with at least 356 EV (he had 306 recorded). He did about 5% better than his recorded 46% share. Is that so hard to believe when you consider what the DNC did to Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primaries?

According to Dr. Epstein, 2.4-10.6 million undecided votes were flipped by Google to Clinton. Gallup Independents (40% of the electorate) are a proxy for the 40% in the NEP who decided after Sept.1.

A 6.5 million flip requires an 11% increase in Trump’s NEP share of Independents from 46% to 57%. As the challenger. Trump would expect at least 57% of undecided Independents since the “incumbent” Clinton was unpopular.

With this one change,Trump wins by 9.4 million votes with 356 EV (50.0-43.1%).

Recorded	Gallup	Trump	Clinton	Other
Rep	28%	88.0%	8.0%	4.0%
Dem	32%	8.0%	89.0%	3.0%
Indep	40%	46.0%	42.0%	12.0
	Calc	45.6%	47.5%	6.9%
	Recorded	46.1%	48.2%	5.7%
	136.22	62.8	65.7	7.6

Independents	Gallup	Trump	Clinton	Other
Rep	28%	88.0%	8.0%	4.0%
Dem	32%	8.0%	89.0%	3.0%
Indep (adjusted)	40%	57%	31.0%	12.0%
	Vote	50.0%	43.1%	5.9%
	Check	50.0%	43.1%	5.9%
	136.22	68.3	58.9	9.0

When Decided	NEP	Trump	Clinton	Other
Before 9/1	60%	47.0%	52.0%	1.0%
After 9/1 (adjusted)	40%	57.0%	30.6%	12.4%
	Vote	51.0%	43.0%	6.0%
	Check	51.0%	43.0%	6.0%
	136.22	69.5	58.6	8.2

Adjustments	Total	Trump	Clinton	Other
Recorded	136.22	62.8	65.7	7.6
	100%	46.1%	48.2%	5.7%
Illegals	-3.0	0.0	-3.0	0,0
Vote Suppression	3.0	0.0	3.0	0.0
Google Vote Flip	0.0	6.5	-6.5	0.0
Adjusted Vote	138.22	69.4	59.2	7.6
	100%	52.0%	42.3%	5.7%

DID TRUMP ACTUALLY WIN BY 13 MILLION VOTES? 
“Taken from the “NSA Core Records”
TRUMP: 70,125,263; CLINTON: 57,177,958

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/did-trump-actually-win-by-13-million-votes/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2019/10/09/2016-national-exit-poll-independents-undecided-voters-and-google/

2016 Election Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17h3tOueSvQWwYFLwOEg3tCoIFdoB7wnEscsMgSFeDAk/edit#gid=1036175945

 

2016 National Exit Poll Independents, Undecided voters and Google

Richard Charnin
Oct.9, 2019

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

According to the 2016 National Exit Poll, Independents   comprised 31% of the electorate and 40% of voters decided after Sept.1. The NEP indicates that Trump won Independents by 46-42%.

The NEP also indicates that Trump won voters who decided after Sept. 1 by 47.9-42.6%. The presumptive “incumbent” Clinton was unpopular. As the challenger, Trump would expect to capture at least 56% of undecided voters.

The Gallup monthly Voter affiliation survey taken at the time of the election indicated that Independents comprised 41% of the electorate, virtually matching the 40% who decided after Sept.1. It is logical to assume that the majority of undecided voters were Independents. Trump needed 56% of Independents to win by 9 million votes and 356 EV (50.0-43.4%).

According to Dr. Epstein, 2.4-10.6 million undecided voters were flipped by Google’s search engine to favor Clinton. Assume  6.5 million were flipped.

Gallup………. NEP shares
Party-ID …….Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem… 31%… 90.4% 7.7% 0.0% 1.9%
Rep… 28%…. 8.0% 88.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Ind… 41%…. 32.0% 56.0% 6.0% 4.0% < 56% = 46% + 10%
Share 100% 43.4% 50.0% 3.6% 2.2%
Votes 136.2. 59.3. 68.3. 4.9. 3.0
EVote………182..356

Trump won the following states (51 EV) that he lost in the recorded vote:
CO 9, MN 10, ME 4, NH 4, NM 5, NV 6, VA 13

National Exit Poll
When Decided.. Voted Clinton Trump Other
After Sept 1……40%…… 30.6% 60.0% 9.4% < 60% = 48% + 12%
Before Sept 1….60%…… 52.0% 45.0% 3.0%
Vote share…….100%… 43.4% 51.0% 5.6%
Votes…………..136.2…… 59.1…69.5.. 7.6

The NEP is always forced to match the recorded vote. The recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote. Recorded Vote = True Vote + Election Fraud

Sensitivity Analysis

	Party ID	Dem	Rep	Ind
	Gallup	31.0%	28.0%	41.0%
Base Case	Trump%	7.7%	88.0%	56.0%
EVote	Clinton	182	Trump	356
	Vote share	43.4%		50.0%
	Votes	59,275		68,296
			Trump % Repubs
Trump	88.0%	89.0%	90.0%	91.0%	92.0%
% Ind			Trump
56%	50.0%	50.3%	50.5%	50.8%	51.1%
52%	48.3%	48.6%	48.9%	49.2%	49.5%
50%	47.5%	47.8%	48.1%	48.4%	48.6%
48%	46.7%	47.0%	47.3%	47.5%	47.8%
46%	45.9%	46.2%	46.4%	46.7%	47.0%
			Clinton
56%	43.4%	43.1%	42.8%	42.5%	42.3%
52%	45.0%	44.7%	44.5%	44.2%	43.9%
50%	45.8%	45.6%	45.3%	45.0%	44.7%
48%	46.7%	46.4%	46.1%	45.8%	45.5%
46%	47.5%	47.2%	46.9%	46.6%	46.4%
			Vote Share Margin
56%	6.6%	7.2%	7.7%	8.3%	8.8%
52%	3.3%	3.9%	4.4%	5.0%	5.6%
50%	1.7%	2.2%	2.8%	3.4%	3.9%
48%	0.0%	0.6%	1.2%	1.7%	2.3%
46%	-1.6%	-1.0%	-0.5%	0.1%	0.6%
			Vote Margin (000)
56%	8,948	9,706	10,465	11,224	11,983
52%	4,503	5,262	6,021	6,779	7,538
50%	2,281	3,039	3,798	4,557	5,316
48%	58	817	1,576	2,335	3,094
46%	-2,164	-1,405	-646	112	871

When Decided
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17h3tOueSvQWwYFLwOEg3tCoIFdoB7wnEscsMgSFeDAk/edit?fbclid=IwAR2x2qXiBcemeKXGNh6c2FW31-2Flwe2pgn-1IWFGhsjDrpRC2MbLwmDp5s#gid=793126276

Independents
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17h3tOueSvQWwYFLwOEg3tCoIFdoB7wnEscsMgSFeDAk/edit?fbclid=IwAR2x2qXiBcemeKXGNh6c2FW31-2Flwe2pgn-1IWFGhsjDrpRC2MbLwmDp5s#gid=1036175945