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2020 Unadjusted state exit polls vs. recorded votes vs. Cyber Symposium PCAPS vote share

14 Nov

Richard Charnin Nov. 14, 2021

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

Unadjusted exit polls have always been adjusted in published final polls to match the recorded vote. The exit pollsters at Edison Research claimed they do this because their polls were wrong; they assume the vote counts were accurate. But the pollsters never considered or noted that election fraud was a major factor in the discrepancies. And the corrupt media and politicians maintain the myth that election fraud is a non-existent conspiracy theory.

But mathematical analysts are not fooled. The unadjusted 2000 and 2004 exit polls were fairly accurate and close to the True Vote. Gore and Kerry won easily. The polls proved to be excellent indicators of election fraud. But starting in 2016, the polls have been rigged to match the bogus popular vote.

Let’s compare the Cyber Symposium PCAP votes to the unadjusted exit polls and recorded votes. In the 24 states polled in 2020, Trump’s weighted average PCAPS vote share was 50.3%. He had a 44.9% unadjusted exit poll share and a 46.2% reported share. Trump’s Cyber shares were higher than the exit poll and reported shares in every state.

Bottom line: Don’t trust unadjusted exit polls. They are no different from biased pre-election polls which are just propaganda to set false expectations and influence the public.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=584196755

https://thebiglie.frankspeech.com/US/compare/index.html

https://tdmsresearch.com/

 
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Posted by on November 14, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

The Cyber Symposium PCAPS machine-flipped vote data for every state and county proves massive 2020 Election Fraud

12 Nov

Richard Charnin Nov. 12, 2021

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The Cyber Symposium displays PCAPs (IP “Packet Captures”) of rigged electronic votes for every U.S. county. It proves beyond any doubt that the 2020 election was stolen. Thanks to Mike Lindell and others involved in providing the IP data to the public. The BIG LIE is that Biden won by 81.7-74.2 million votes. The TRUTH is that Trump won by 80.7-74.7 million. And this is conservative. It is based only on computer packets that flipped votes. But there were millions of illegal ballots that were stuffed or lost, virtually all for Biden.

Trump won AZ by 270,000 votes. But the Dems stole the state and Biden “won” by 10,500. Trump’s votes were electronically flipped to Biden in every AZ county (note his decline in margins). Based on the PCAPS, Trump had a minimum of 325 electoral votes. He won MN, NV, NH as well as all contested Battleground states.

AZ CountiesRecordedRecordedCyberAdjusted Margin
BidenTrumpTrumpTrump
Total1,672,1431,661,6861,801,424279,476
Apache23,29311,44212,9032,922
Cochise23,73235,55738,0504,986
Coconino44,69827,05230,0696,034
Gila8,94318,37719,5262,298
Graham4,03410,74911,3701,242
Greenlee1,1822,4332,585304
La Paz2,2365,1295,438618
Maricopa1,040,774995,6651,081,320171,310
Mohave24,83178,53582,8828,694
Navajo23,38327,65729,8234,332
Pima304,981207,758229,32443,132
Pinal75,106107,077114,23914,324
Santa Cruz13,1386,1947,0071,626
Yavapai49,60291,52797,46311,872
Yuma32,21036,53439,4255,782

https://thebiglie.frankspeech.com/ARIZONA/index.html

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2021/11/11/arizona-2020-election-fraud-exit-poll-vs-cyber-symposium/?fbclid=IwAR1q_OSipI0e1oB-HAxZGa4lj22bcVXFkOhQpIeLRlBxPq6RTsuQhlVH_Zc
 
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Posted by on November 12, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

Arizona 2020 Election Fraud: Exit Poll vs. Cyber Symposium

11 Nov

Richard Charnin Nov. 11, 2021

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

According to the Cyber Symposium (PCAPS), Trump won AZ by 270,000 votes.

The AZ exit poll Race demographic indicates that Trump lost by 87,000 votes. The poll understates Trump’s shares of whites and Hispanics. I used Census race weights and adjusted the vote shares to match the Cyber vote.

The AZ exit poll Party-ID demographic indicates a 35-26% edge in Republicans over Democrats. Trump won this category by 22,000 votes, even though the poll grossly understates his shares of Democrats, Republicans and Independents.

Biden won the AZ reported vote by 10,000. Exit polls are always adjusted to match the reported vote. Pollsters never consider the election fraud factor. What are the reasons for the exit poll anomalies?

AZ Party IDPctBidenTrumpOtherMargin
Dem26%96%3%1%-93%
Rep35%9%90%1%81%
Ind39%53%44%3%-9%
Exit Poll100%48.8%49.4%1.8%0.66%
Exit Poll3,3871,6521,6746022
Reported100%49.4%49.1%1.5%-0.31%
Reported3,3871,6721,66253.2-10.4

AZ RacePctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White74%52%46%2%6%
Black2%12%87%1%-75%
Hispanic19%37%61%2%-24%
Asian2%34%61%5%-27%
Other3%41%55%4%-13%
Exit Poll3,38747.7%50.2%2.1%-2.6%
Exit Poll3,3871,6141,70271-87
Reported3,38749.1%49.4%1.6%-0.3%
Reported3,3871,6621,67253-10

AZ CyberCensusPctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White2,38565.4%61%37%2%24%
Black1794.9%12%87%1%-75%
Hispanic81422.3%44%55%1%-11%
Asian1072.9%34%61%5%-27%
Other1644.5%41%55%4%-14%
Calc3,649100.0%53.1%45.0%1.9%8.1%
Calc3,6491,9381,64170297
Cyber3,38753.2%45.2%1.6%8.0%
Cyber3,3871,8011,53155270

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/arizona

https://thebiglie.frankspeech.com/US/compare/index.html

 
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Posted by on November 11, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

Pennsylvania 2020 fraud: Exit poll and Cyber Symposium

11 Nov

Richard Charnin Nov. 11, 2021

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

Trump won the final Pennsylvania Exit Poll Race category by 10,000 votes (even though it grossly understated his shares of whites, blacks and Hispanics). Biden won the Party-ID category by 103,000 (understating Trump’s shares of Republicans and Independents). The Dems rigged the election and Biden “won” PA by 81,000 votes.

But Trump won PA in a 495,000 vote landslide according to the Cyber Symposium (PCAPS). I used Census race weights and adjusted the vote shares to match the Cyber vote.

PA Exit Poll –RacePctTrumpBidenOther
White81%57%42%1%
Black11%7%92%1%
Hispanic5%27%69%4%
Asian1%34%61%5%
Other2%41%55%4%Margin
Calc6,91549.5%49.3%1.2%0.2%
Calc6,9153,3413,3318410
Reported6,91548.9%50.0%1.1%-1.1%
Reported6,9153,3783,45879-80
PA CyberCensusPctTrumpBidenOther
White5,63483.4%59%39%2%
Black69410.3%14%84%2%
Hispanic2704.0%38%58%4%
Asian841.2%34%61%5%
Other741.1%41%55%4%Margin
Match6,756100.0%53.0%45.8%2.1%8.2%
Match6,7563,5833,029145554
Cyber6,91553.0%45.9%1.1%7.1%
Cyber6,9153,6653,17179494
PA -Party IDPctBidenTrumpOtherMargin
Dem40%92%7%1%1%
Rep41%8%91%1%0%
Ind19%52%44%4%5%
Calc100%50.0%48.5%1.5%-1.5%
Calc6,9153,4553,352109-103
Recorded100%50.0%48.9%1.1%-1.1%
Recorded6,9153,4583,37879-80

https://publicinterestlegal.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Mail-Voting-2012_2020-1P-PA.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1hxnNLzIFMVjmz-SCoAs7k22XGy21t_HB2WNj3RyXod0i78BfNG3Y23Zg

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/pennsylvania

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=639160994

https://thebiglie.frankspeech.com/US/compare/index.html

 
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Posted by on November 11, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

Cyber Symposium and 2020 RACE state vote census refute reported exit polls/votes

05 Nov

Richard Charnin Nov.6, 2021

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The Cyber Symposium state results and the 2020 RACE vote census refute the bogus recorded votes of 24 state race exit polls and 26 other states. The race vote shares are forced to match the Cyber margins.

Most of the fraud was in White vote shares , but also in shares of Blacks and Hispanics. Note the difference in the state reported vote margin and Cyber margin.

View all Cyber Symposium stats, Census race breakdowns and bogus reported/exit poll vote tables.

National Exit Poll – forced to match reported vote

US Exit PollPctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White67%58%41%1%
Black13%12%87%1%
Hispanic13%32%65%3%
Asian4%34%61%5%
Other3%41%55%4%
Calc100%47.17%51.32%1.51%-4.15%
Reported158,38446.86%51.31%1.83%-4.45%
Reported158,38474,21781,2692,898-7,052

National vote (adjust Trump white vote share to match Cyber)

US (adj)CensusPctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White109,83071.0%62%37%1%
Black18,92212.2%12%87%1%
Hispanic16,45910.6%32%65%3%
Asian6,8814.5%34%61%5%
Other2,5351.6%41%55%4%
Calc154,627100%51.10%47.46%1.44%3.64%
Cyber158,38350.98%47.19%1.83%3.79%
Cyber158,38480,74474,7402,9006,004
AZExit PollTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White74%52%46%2%
Black2%12%87%1%n/a
Hispanic19%37%61%2%
Asian2%34%61%5%n/a
Other3%41%55%4%n/a
Calc3,38747.7%50.2%2.1%-2.5%
Calc3,3871,6141,70271-87
Reported3,38749.1%49.4%1.6%-0.3%
Reported3,3871,6621,67253-10
AZ CyberCensusPctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White2,38565.4%61%37%2%
Black1794.9%12%87%1%
Hispanic81422.3%44%55%1%
Asian1072.9%34%61%5%
Other1644.5%41%55%4%
Match3,649100.0%53.1%45.0%1.9%8.1%
Match3,6491,9381,64170297
Cyber3,38753.2%45.2%1.6%8.0%
Cyber3,3871,8021,53253270
FLExit PollPctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White6,86262%62%37%1%
Black1,54914%10%89%1%
Hispanic2,10319%46%53%1%
Asian1111%34%61%5%na
Other4434%44%55%1%
Calc11,067100%50.7%48.3%3.3%2.4%
Calc11,0674,9264,6931,449233
Reported11,06751.2%47.9%0.9%3.3%
Reported11,0675,6695,297102372
FL CyberCensusPctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White6,26064.4%66%33%1%
Black1,37514.1%14%85%1%
Hispanic1,78918.4%53%46%1%
Asian2572.6%34%61%5%
Other390.4%44%55%1%
Match9,720100.0%55.3%43.6%1.1%11.7%
Match9,7205,3774,2361071,141
Cyber11,06755.3%43.7%1.2%11.6%
Cyber11,0676,1224,8321131,290

GAExit PollPctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White3,05061%69%30%1%
Black1,45029%11%88%1%
Hispanic3507%37%62%1%
Asian501%34%61%5%na
Other1002%38%58%4%
Calc5,000100.0%49.0%49.9%1.1%-1.0%
Calc5,0002,3942,441165.7-47
Reported5,00049.2%49.5%1.3%-0.3%
Reported5,0002,4622,47464-12
GA CyberCensusPctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White2,94760.3%78%21%1%
Black1,60832.9%12%87%1%
Hispanic1783.6%37%58%5%
Asian1162.4%34%61%5%
Other390.8%38%58%4%
Match4,888100.0%53.4%45.3%1.3%8.1%
Match4,8882,6122,21461.8397
Cyber5,00053.4%45.3%1.3%8.1%
Cyber5,0002,6692,26665.0403

MIExit PollTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White81%55%44%2%
Black12%7%92%1%
Hispanic3%44%55%1%
Asian1%34%61%5%na
Other3%41%55%4%na
Calc5,53948.3%50.6%1.9%-2.3%
Calc5,5392,6742,80263-128
Reported5,53947.8%50.6%1.54%-2.8%
Reported5,5392,6502,80485-154

MI CyberCensusPctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White3,99780.0%59%39%2%
Black62812.6%14%86%0%
Hispanic1653.3%44%55%1%
Asian651.3%34%61%5%
Other1392.8%41%55%4%
Match4,994100.0%52.0%46.2%1.8%5.8%
Match4,9942,5982,30690292
Cyber5,53952.0%46.5%1.7%5.5%
Cyber5,5392,8792,57585304

MNExit PollTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White81%47%51%2%
Black9%21%77%2%
Hispanic4%38%60%2%
Asian3%34%61%5%na
Other3%41%55%4%na
Calc3,27743.7%54.1%2.2%-10.4%
Calc3,2771,4101,745122-335
Reported3,27745.3%52.4%2.3%-7.1%
Reported3,2771,4841,71776-233

MN CyberCensusPctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White2,84088.1%53%46%1%
Black1304.0%15%84%1%
Hispanic983.0%38%60%2%
Asian742.3%34%61%5%
Other832.6%41%55%4%
Match3,225100.0%50.3%48.5%1.2%1.8%
Match3,2251,6211,5653956
Cyber3,27750.2%49.1%0.7%1.1%
Cyber3,2771,6191,5827637

NVExit PollTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White65%56%43%1%
Black7%18%80%2%
Hispanic17%35%61%4%
Asian5%35%64%1%
Other6%54%42%4%
Calc1,40548.6%49.6%1.8%-1.0%
Calc1,40565767124-14
Reported1,40547.7%50.1%2.3%-2.4%
Reported1,40567070332-34

NV CyberCensusPctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White82761.2%61%36%3%
Black13610.1%19%80%1%
Hispanic23917.7%47%52%1%
Asian1349.9%35%64%1%
Other151.1%54%44%2%
Match1,351100.0%51.6%46.1%2.3%5.5%
Match1,3516976233174
Cyber1,40551.8%46.0%2.3%5.8%
Cyber1,4057286463182

PAExit PollTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White81%57%42%1%
Black11%7%92%1%
Hispanic5%27%69%4%
Asian1%34%61%5%na
Other2%41%55%4%na
Calc6,91549.5%49.3%1.3%0.15%
Calc6,9153,3413,3318410
Reported6,91548.84%50.01%1.15%-1.16%
Reported6,9153,3783,45879-81
PA CyberCensusPctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White5,63483.4%59%40%2%
Black69410.3%14%84%2%
Hispanic2704.0%38%58%4%
Asian841.2%34%61%5%
Other741.1%41%55%4%
Match6,756100.0%53.0%45.7%1.3%7.3%
Match6,7563,5833,085145498
Cyber6,91553.0%45.9%1.1%7.1%
Cyber6,9153,6653,17179494

TXExit PollTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White60%66%33%1%
Black12%9%90%1%
Hispanic23%41%58%1%
Asian3%30%63%7%
Other2%56%42%2%
Calc11,31552.13%46.67%1.20%5.46%
Calc11,3155,8995,281136618
Reported11,31552.06%46.48%1.46%5.58%
Reported11,3155,8905,259166631

TX CyberCensusPctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White6,78557.1%67%24%9%
Black1,52112.8%14%85%1%
Hispanic2,97225.0%47%51%2%
Asian4824.1%30%63%7%
Other1141.0%56%42%2%
Match11,874100.0%53.60%40.33%6.07%13.27%
Match11,8746,3644,7897211,576
Cyber11,31553.55%40.34%6.11%13.21%
Cyber11,3156,3594,7901661,569
WIExit PollTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White86%52%46%2%
Black6%8%92%0%
Hispanic4%37%60%3%
Asian1%34%61%5%na
Other2%41%55%4%na
Calc3,25347.8%49.2%2.0%-1.6%
Calc3,2531,5561,60064-44
Reported3,29848.8%49.4%1.7%-1.6%
Reported3,2981,6101,63157-21

WI CyberCensusPctTrumpBidenOtherMargin
White2,91489.6%56%43%1%
Black1143.5%13%86%1%
Hispanic1013.1%37%60%3%
Asian441.4%34%61%5%
Other802.5%41%55%4%
Match3,253100.0%53.2%45.6%1.2%7.6%
Match3,2531,7321,48339249
Cyber3,29852.9%45.3%1.7%7.6%
Cyber3,2981,7461,49557251

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/

 
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Posted by on November 5, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

Colorado 2020 Election: Indications of Fraud

27 Oct

Colorado 2020 election: Math Indications of fraud

Richard Charnin Oct. 27, 2021

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

The CO Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote Biden (55.4-41.9%). How did Biden get 57% of whites in CO if Trump had 58% nationally? For the poll to match the recorded vote, CO Exit Poll vote shares had to be INCREASED for Trump! The sensitivity analysis below shows that Trump would have won CO if he had just 51% of the white vote.

Note that the Census indicates 2,827,000 voted in CO compared to the 3,256,000 reported. Could there have been an estimated 430,000 STUFFED BALLOTS? Where is the CO Forensic audit?

National Exit Poll – adjusted to match the total U.S. reported vote

NEPPctTrumpBidenOther
White67%58%41%1%
Black13%12%87%1%
Hispanic13%32%65%3%
Asian4%34%61%5%
Other3%41%55%4%
Reported100%47.17%51.32%1.51%

CO Exit Poll – adjusted to match the CO reported vote. Biden wins by 440,000 votes

COPctTrumpBidenOther
White79%41%57%2%
Black3%16%80%4%
Hispanic12%49%47%4%
Asian2%53%42%5%
Other4%53%38%9%
Total100%41.9%55.4%2.7%
Reported100%41.9%55.4%2.7%
Votes3,2561,3641,80488

National Exit Poll vote shares and CO Census voting weights. Trump wins by 212,000 votes.

CO CensusCensusNEPNEPNEP
AdjustVotesPctTrumpBidenOther
White 2,31681.6%58%41%1%
Black963.4%12%87%1%
Hispanic31511.1%32%65%3%
Asian501.8%34%61%5%
Other602.1%41%55%4%
Total2,837100.0%53.0%45.5%1.5%
Reported3,256100.0%41.9%55.4%2.7%
Census Votes28371503129144

Sensitivity Analysis – Trump wins by 31,000 with 51% of the white vote

% HispanicCOTrump% White
43%43%45%47%49%51%
% BlackMargin
29%-377-271-164-5848
27%-381-275-169-6244
25%-386-280-173-6740
23%-390-284-178-7135
21%-395-288-182-7631
Trump
29%42.9%44.5%46.1%47.8%49.4%
27%42.8%44.4%46.1%47.7%49.3%
25%42.7%44.4%46.0%47.6%49.3%
23%42.7%44.3%45.9%47.6%49.2%
21%42.6%44.2%45.9%47.5%49.1%
Biden
29%54.4%52.8%51.2%49.5%47.9%
27%54.5%52.9%51.2%49.6%48.0%
25%54.6%52.9%51.3%49.7%48.0%
23%54.6%53.0%51.4%49.7%48.1%
21%54.7%53.1%51.4%49.8%48.2%
Votes Trump
29%1,3961,4491,5021,5561,609
27%1,3941,4471,5001,5531,606
25%1,3921,4451,4981,5511,604
23%1,3891,4431,4961,5491,602
21%1,3871,4401,4941,5471,600
VotesBiden
29%1,7731,7201,6671,6131,560
27%1,7751,7221,6691,6161,563
25%1,7771,7241,6711,6181,565
23%1,7801,7261,6731,6201,567
21%1,7821,7291,6751,6221,569
2020 Census Table 4b. Reported Voting and Registration, by Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin, for States: November 2020

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=1267983589

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/colorado

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

 
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Posted by on October 27, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

2020 state vote sensitivity analysis

22 Oct

Richard Charnin Oct. 22, 2021

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

A powerful state vote sensitivity analysis feature has been added to the 2020 Election Model.

The model will instantly generate a 5×5 matrix (25 scenarios) of Trump total vote shares and votes ( in 000) over a range of his shares of Democrats and Independents. A corresponding matrix of vote margins is also calculated.

Shares of Democrats range from 8-16%.

Shares of Independents range from 48-56%.

Trump’s share of Republicans is assumed to be 96%.

The worst case scenario is in the lowest left cell of the matrix; the most likely scenario is in the center cell, the best case is in the upper right cell.

Party-IDDemRepIndVotes
AZ34.4%38.7%26.9%3,649
Trump% Rep
96%% Dem
Trump % Ind8%10%12%14%16%
Share
56%55.0%55.7%56.3%57.0%57.7%
54%54.4%55.1%55.8%56.5%57.2%
52%53.9%54.6%55.3%56.0%56.6%
50%53.4%54.0%54.7%55.4%56.1%
48%52.8%53.5%54.2%54.9%55.6%
Votes
56%2,0062,0312,0562,0812,106
54%1,9862,0112,0362,0612,087
52%1,9671,9922,0172,0422,067
50%1,9471,9721,9972,0222,047
48%1,9271,9521,9772,0032,028
Biden
56%1,5831,5581,5331,5081,483
54%1,6031,5781,5521,5271,502
52%1,6221,5971,5721,5471,522
50%1,6421,6171,5921,5671,541
48%1,6621,6361,6111,5861,561
Margin
56%423473523573624
54%384434484534584
52%344394445495545
50%305355405456506
48%266316366416467

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=295357622

 
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Posted by on October 22, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

CNN / FOX Biden Approval: More Fake math

19 Oct

Richard Charnin Oct. 19, 2021

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This will show proof that CNN and Fox News think you’re stupid.

On Sept. 7, CNN had 49% Biden approval. On Oct. 13, after the sharp decline in Biden’s overall approval, CNN showed 50%! On Sept. 15, Fox showed 50%. On Sept. 11, The Hill had 54%. WTF!

Reuters/Ipsos (Oct. 14) is another establishment poll which is always biased. It has Biden at 47%, with 15% approval from Republicans! Compare it to Quinnipiac’s 3%.

The Oct. 18 Quinnipiac poll has Biden approval at 37% (see below).

Civiqs is an online national and state demographic survey. Biden is at 39% (see trend below).

We have the latest CNN internals. As usual, CNN underweighted the percent of Republican respondents and manipulated the poll shares to derive the bogus approval rating. All unbiased (and biased) observers should know by now that it is standard operating procedure for the media to rig pre-election and exit polls for the Democrats. For those that still don’t see this: wake up and do the math!

The following steps show how CNN may have derived 50% Biden approval, given the average current 43% Biden approval rating.

Step 1: Start with the consensus Biden approval using 2020 National Exit Poll Party-ID

Actual %NEP party-IDApproveDisapprove
Dem378614
Ind263565
Rep37595
Total10042.857.2

Step 2: Adjust Party-ID

Adjust 1CNN Party-IDApproveDisapprove
Dem358614
Ind363565
Rep29595
Total10044.255.8

Step 3: Adjust approval shares to derive bogus 50% CNN approval.

Adjust 2: Final CNNParty-IDApproveDisapprove
Dem358812
Ind364555
Rep291288
Total10050.549.5
QuinnipiacParty-IDApproveDisapprove
Dem297911
Ind472856
Rep24395
Total10036.852.3

Reuters/IpsosSamplePctApproval
Dem41845.7%81%
Rep39843.5%15%
Ind9810.7%34%
Total914100.0%47.2%

CNN (Oct. 17) http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2021/images/10/13/rel6a.-.biden.infrastructure.economy.pdf (page 11)

Reuters/Ipsos (Oct. 14) https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-10/2021%20Ipsos%20Tracking%20-%20Core%20Political%20Presidential%20Approval%20Tracker%2010%2014%202021.pdf

Quinnipiac (Oct.18) https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3825

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Real Clear Politics Biden approval trend https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

 
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Posted by on October 19, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

Differences between Census and reported state votes (net stuffed and lost ballots) vs. the Census state margin of error

17 Oct

Richard Charnin Oct.17, 2021

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If a state’s Census votes are LESS than recorded, assume the difference is due to NET STUFFED ballots. If the Census votes are GREATER than recorded, assume the difference is due to NET LOST/DISCARDED ballots. In the US, there were 3.7 million net stuffed ballots (5.9 million net stuffed in 33 states and 2.2 million net lost in18 states).

Note that if the Census vote is close to the Reported vote in a state (i.e. the net absolute difference is less than 2%), then we can assume that the number of stuffed ballots is close to the number of lost/discarded ballots.

These states had the most net stuffed ballots (Diff). Note that the net differences exceeded the margin of error, therefore there is a virtual ZERO probability that the discrepancies were due to chance.

Stuffed ballots (net)CensusRecordedDiffDiff %MoE %
US (000)154,628158,3843,7562.4%0.4
Florida9,72011,0671,34712.2%1.6
North Carolina4,7805,52574513.5%2.3
California16,89317,5016083.5%1.2
Michigan4,9945,5395459.8%2.2
Colorado2,8373,25742012.9%3
Massachusetts3,2493,63138210.5%2.7
Washington3,8544,0882345.7%2.5
Virginia4,2754,4611864.2%2.4
Pennsylvania6,7566,9151592.3%1.9
Connecticut1,6811,8241437.9%3.4
Georgia4,8885,0001122.2%2.3

These states had the most net lost/discarded ballots. Each net abs (Diff) exceeded the Census margin of error, a virtual ZERO probability that the discrepancies were due to chance.

Lost ballots (net)CensusRecordedDiffDiff % MoE %
US (000)154,628158,3843,7562.4%0.4
Texas11,87411,315-559-4.9%1.5
Tennessee3,3463,054-292-9.6%2.7
Arizona3,6493,387-262-7.7%2.6
Mississippi1,5311,314-217-16.5%3.2
Ohio6,1285,922-206-3.5%2
Maryland3,1663,037-129-4.2%2.8

View all states here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=1244287493


https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/techdocs/cpsnov20.pdf

 
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Posted by on October 17, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

Discrepancies between the 2020 Census vs. the Reported Vote – Race Demographic

16 Oct

Discrepancies between the the 2020 Census vs. Reported vote – Race

Richard Charnin Oct. 16, 2021

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The 2020 census reported 154.628 million voted. The margin of error was 0.4%. There was a 90% level of confidence that there were 154.009m-155.247m votes (+/- 618,520 votes from the Census).

There were 158.38m recorded votes, exceeding the census by 3.8 million, far above the 618,520 Census margin of error. Where did those excess votes come from?

Also, according to the Census, white voters comprised 71% of the vote. According to the NEP, they were 67% of the electorate and Trump had 58% of whites. Applying the 3.8 million (4%) increase of white voters in the census over the NEP reduces Biden’s margin by more than half (4.46% to 2.04%). But it does not take into account forced reduction in Trump’s true vote shares required to match the proven fraudulent recorded vote.

As always, the NEP forced a near perfect match to the reported vote; the anomalies understate Trump’s True vote. He won in a landslide. It will become obvious when battleground states have forensic audits.

NEPNEPTrumpBidenOther
White67%58%41%1%
Black13%12%87%1%
Latino13%32%65%3%
Asian4%34%61%5%
Other3%41%55%4%
Calc100%47.17%51.32%1.44%
Recorded100%46.86%51.31%1.83%
Diff0.31%0.01%-0.39%

NEP (adj)CensusTrumpBidenOther
White71.0%61%38%1%
Black12.2%13%86%1%
Latino10.6%38%59%3%
Asian4.5%38%57%5%
Other1.6%38%58%4%
Adjusted100%51.28%47.28%1.44%
Census Votes154,62879,28973,1122,227
Recorded100%46.86%51.32%1.81%
Votes158,38074,22481,2852,803

Sensitivity Analysis

Trump%Trump %White
Non-white58%61%62%
35%51.3%53.5%54.2%
30%49.9%52.0%52.7%
27%49.0%51.15%51.9%
22%47.6%49.7%50.4%
17%46.1%48.3%49.0%
Biden
35%47.4%45.2%44.5%
30%48.8%46.7%46.0%
27%49.7%47.56%46.9%
22%51.1%49.0%48.3%
17%52.6%50.5%49.7%
Trump margin
35%6,12812,71714,914
30%1,6488,23810,434
27%-1,0405,5507,746
22%-5,5201,0703,267
17%-10,000-3,410-1,213

View the calculations: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit?fbclid=IwAR2VNV1CK37ny9HIlJyH4BcBbw9TK4esAh0-7OcDVFWDRDDNUNTRcV_kW-E#gid=1267983589

 
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Posted by on October 16, 2021 in Uncategorized

 
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