Richard Charnin
Dec. 13, 2019
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On Dec. 12, Rasmussen had Trump approval at 51% vs. 48% disapproval, up from 44% approval on Nov. 25 (1500 likely voters). Is this an indication that the impeachment hearings are backfiring on the Dems? Politico/Morning Consulting had 39% approval vs. 58% disapproval (1994 registered voters), a -19% spread! One of these polls is way off. Let’s see how the polls react over the next few weeks.
Assuming Gallup survey Party-ID (39% Ind, 31% Dem, 30% Repub), 95% Repub Trump approval and 5% Dem Trump approval, 54% Independent Trump approval is required to match Rasmussen’s 51% Trump approval.
According to Politico Party-ID (13% Ind, 47% Dem, 40% Repub) just 11% of Independents approve. Which is most plausible?
Politico Trump Approval
Politco Approve Disapprove
Rep 40.3% 83.0% 16.0%
Dem 46.5% 9.0% 88.0%
Ind 13.2% 10.6% 80.3%
Poll 100% 39.0% 58.0%
Rasmussen Trump Approval
Gallup Approve Disapprove
Rep 30.0% 95.0% 5.0%
Dem 31.0% 5.0% 95.0%
Ind 39.0% 53.7% 43.7%
Poll 100% 51.0% 48.0%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=528588856
A viewer commented: “It’s a Rasmussen poll, Richard. They always skew right because they only poll landline users and the average age of landline users is 49. Their methodology is garbage”.
I replied:
The MSM is biased. They inflate Dem Party- ID and vote shares. Therefore, it is clear that Rasmussen polls are closer to the truth than the MSM. The question is how close. My analysis of the 2016 primary and presidential election and the 2018 midterms shows that Dem votes were inflated. It is undisputed: the MSM is in the tank for the DNC.
Rasmussen Methodology
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology
“Data for Rasmussen Reports survey research is collected using an automated polling methodology.
Generally speaking, the automated survey process is identical to that of traditional, operator-assisted research firms such as Gallup, Harris, and Roper. However, automated polling systems use a single, digitally-recorded, voice to conduct the interview while traditional firms rely on phone banks, boiler rooms, and operator-assisted technology.
For tracking surveys such as the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, the automated technology ensures that every respondent hears exactly the same question, from the exact same voice, asked with the exact same inflection every single time.
All Rasmussen Reports’ survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that ensures appropriate geographic representation. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.
******To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.*****************
After the surveys are completed, the raw data is processed through a ****WEIGHTING**** program to ensure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.
For surveys of all adults, the population targets are determined by census bureau data.
For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions.
Rasmussen Reports determines its partisan weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area”.
