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Arizona Senate Poll Analysis (Cont.)

Richard Charnin
Nov.3, 2018

The latest CNN, NBC, CBS AZ senate polls show Sinema up by 4,6 and 3%. FOX has the race tied at 46%. The FOX internal numbers say otherwise.

McSally leads by 48.7-45.8%. But this is conservative as FOX gives her just 3% of Dems and 85% of Repubs. The assumption is that they split Independents 50-50%.

When will the MSM learn? You can’t fool ALL of the people ALL of the time.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_sinema-6328.html

https://www.scribd.com/document/392088280/Fox-Arizona-Late-October-Complete-Topline-October-31-Release#from_embed

AZ Party ID McSally Sinema
Rep 50% 85% << low 8%
Dem 40% 3% << low 92%
Ind/Other 10% 50% 50%
Total 100.0% 48.7% 45.8%
11/2 Early voting (000) 1461 ballots 611 Rep (41.8%) 495 Dem (33.9%)
Let’s make these plausible adjustments (in bold) to McSally’s shares. McSally has 51.4%.
AZ Party ID McSally Sinema
Rep 50% 88% 8%
Dem 40% 6% 92%
Ind/Other 10% 50% 50%
Total 100.0% 51.4% 45.8%
Sensitivity Analysis- McSally’s total share from worst case lower left cell (48.7%) to best case upper right (52.2%)
McSally % Rep
McSally 85% 86% 87% 88%
%Dem
8% 50.7% 51.2% 51.7% 52.2%
7% 50.3% 50.8% 51.3% 51.8%
6% 49.9% 50.4% 50.9% 51.4%
5% 49.5% 50.0% 50.5% 51.0%
4% 49.1% 49.6% 50.1% 50.6%
3% 48.7% 49.2% 49.7% 50.2%
Note: The AZ 2016 final exit poll Party ID differs from the FOX poll. But the HRC and DJT total vote shares nearly match.
AZ 2016 Party ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 28.0% 89.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Rep 32.0% 7.0% 88.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Ind 40.0% 44.0% 47.0% 5.0% 2.0%
Total 100.0% 44.8% 48.9% 3.8% 0.80%
Votes 2,573 1,152 1,259 98 21
Margin 107 4.2%
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Posted by on November 3, 2018 in 2018 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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Arizona CBS senate poll: more anomalies

Richard Charnin
10/31/2018

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The CBS News 2018 Battleground Tracker shows Sinema (D) leads McSally (R) by 47-44%. But applying AZ party registration ID to the poll shares, Sinema leads by just 46.1-45.2%, a 62% win probability. Assume equal registered voter turnout (AZ1).

Note that the poll shows McSally with just 1% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans. These are implausible shares. Let’s change the shares to 6% and 88%, respectively.

McSally leads by 48.2-46.1% (AZ2), a 76% win probability.

AZ1 Reg Party-ID McSally Sinema
Rep 1288 34.7% 84% 9%
Dem 1151 31.0% 1% 91%
Ind 1272 34.3% 46% 43%
Total 3711 100% 45.2% 46.1%
AZ2 Reg Party-ID McSally Sinema
Rep 1288 34.7% 88% 9%
Dem 1151 31.0% 6% 91%
Ind 1272 34.3% 46% 43%
Total 3711 100% 48.2% 46.1%
Sensitivity Analysis
McSally wins 17 of 20 scenarios (bold)
Sinema has 46.1% in all scenarios
McSally % Dem
McSally % Rep 1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
McSally
Total
90% 47.3% 47.9% 48.6% 49.2% 49.8%
88% 46.6% 47.2% 47.9% 48.5% 49.1%
86% 45.9% 46.5% 47.2% 47.8% 48.4%
84% 45.2% 45.9% 46.5% 47.1% 47.7%
McSally Win Probability matrix (3.0% MoE)
1% 3% 5% 7% 9%
90% 66.4% 73.8% 80.2% 85.4% 89.6%
88% 57.3% 65.5% 73.0% 79.5% 84.8%
86% 47.5% 56.3% 64.6% 72.1% 78.7%
84% 37.8% 46.5% 55.2% 63.6% 71.3%
Early ballot counts in AZ counties: 50.1% Rep, 38.5% Dem, 11.5% Other
CBS Poll: go to category 6
 
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Posted by on October 31, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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10/29/18 Generic Vote Forecast Model vs. RCP average

Richard Charnin
Oct.29, 2018
Nov.4 update

GOP House Forecast: 230R – 205D? It’s possible.

According to Real Clear Politics: 32 of 38 House seats that are currently too close to call are Republican. The GOP has 195 safe so they need 23 seats to win the House with 218, even assuming they lose all 6 Democratic seats that are too close to call.

Assuming the polls are media-biased for the Democrats and the GOP retains all 32 seats, they will have AT LEAST a 227-208 House majority. Maybe 230-205 if they pick up 3 Dem too close to call seats. And that is a RED WAVE.

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10/29/18 Generic Vote Forecast Model vs. RCP average

Assuming the 2-party Base Case forecast (50.9R-49.1D), the Repubs will keep the House by approximately 230-205 seats.

Note: The Dems need an approximate 58D-40R% lead in registered voter turnout to match the current RCP Generic Poll average (49.5D-41.9R). This is impossible.

Model Base Case Assumptions (2-party):
1) Latest Gallup % voter affiliation: 27R-28D-45I
2) Reg voter Turnout: 48% of Repub, 46% Dems, 44% Ind
3) Independents: Repubs win 52-48%
4) Equal 92-8% vote shares

Party-ID Turnout % Registered Turnout Rep Dem
Rep 27% 48% 20424 92% 8%
Dem 28% 46% 20298 8% 92%
Ind 45% 44% 31204 52% 48%
Total 100% 45.6% —- 50.94% 49.06%
Votes 71,927 36,640 35,286
Turnout scenarios
Rep Dem Ind Total Rep Dem
48% 46% 44% 45.6% 50.94% 49.06%
49% 45% 45% 46.1% 51.45% 48.55%
50% 44% 46% 46.5% 51.96% 48.04%
51% 43% 47% 47.0% 52.45% 47.55%
52% 42% 48% 47.4% 52.93% 47.07%
53% 41% 49% 47.8% 53.41% 46.59%
Required to match RCP
40% 58% 40% 45.0% 45.73% 54.27%
Generic Poll RCP Average House seats
Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep
2016 46 45.4 48 49.1 194 241
2014 43.2 45.6 45.2 51.4 188 247
2012 47.3 47.5 49.2 48 201 234
Average 45.5 46.2 47.5 49.5 194 241

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=210218497

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

 
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Posted by on October 29, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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FL Gov poll: CNN Fake news

Richard Charnin
Sept.23, 2018

FL Gov poll: CNN Fake news

CNN has Gillum leading DeSantis by 54-42%. It is a severe outlier. The race is essentially a dead heat. Let’s compare CNN to other polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/…/florida_governor_desant…

CNN
PartyID DeSantis Gillum
Dem 31%…1% 97% < DeSantis has just 1% of Dems?
Rep 27%….88% 9% < only 27% are Repub? Missing 8%!
Ind 34%…..42% 51%
Total 92%…38.4% 49.8%
Adj Total…..41.7% 54.2% <12.5% margin?

Quinnipiac
PartyID DeSantis Gillum
Dem 31%… 3% 93% < only 3%? of Dems?
Rep 35%… 92% 6%
Ind 34%… 42% 55%
Total 100%.. 47.4% 49.6%

St. Pete
……….Resp Pct Gillum DeSantis
Dem 636 40.4%… 78.8% 14.6%
Rep 647 41.1%… 14.7% 81.5%
Ind 292 18.5%… 51.4% 38.7%
Total 1575 100%. 47.4% 46.6%

Mason Dixon
…….Resp Pct…… Gillum DeSantis
Dem 311 38.2%…..84% 5%
Rep 301 36.9%……7% 86%
Ind 203 24.9%….41% 41%
Total 815 100%…….44.9% 43.9%

 
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Posted by on October 23, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

Close analysis of inflated Democratic MSM Generic polls indicates the Republicans will win the House

Richard Charnin
Oct.11, 2018

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

On Oct. 11, 2018,  the Dems are leading by 49-40% in 7 Real Clear Politics (RCP) MSM Generic polls. Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP  have the Dems leading 45-44%. Which is closer to the truth?

It’s all about voter turnout. Assume the base case: 1) the Democrats and Republicans (after Kavanaugh) are equally motivated to turnout (40% of registered voters), 2)   Gallup voter affiliation Party ID (28D-27R-45I) closely reflects the electorate and 3) there is an equal split in vote shares of independents (50-50%) and party loyalty (90-10%). The  Generic 2-party vote is Dem 50.4%- Repub 49.6%.

In the last three elections, the Dems and Repubs were virtually tied in the Generic ballot (45.5D-46.2R) and RCP poll average (47.5D-49.5R).  The Repubs won the House in all three by a 241-194 average.

Consider various voter turnout scenarios.  For the Dems to win by 9% as the 7-poll RCP average indicates, there would have to be 56% Dem and 40% Repub turnout. Not likely.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1619968863

 

 Scenario I Party-ID Turnout/ Reg Voters Turnout Votes (000) Repub Dem
Rep 27% 40% 17020 90% 10%
Dem 28% 40% 17651 10% 90%
Ind 45% 40% 28367 50% 50%
Total 100% 40% 49.60% 50.40%
Votes 63,038 31,267 31,771
Various Turnout scenarios
Rep Ind Dem Total Repub Dem
40% 40% 40% 40.0% 49.60% 50.40%
40% 40% 41% 40.3% 49.32% 50.68%
40% 40% 42% 40.5% 49.05% 50.95%
40% 40% 43% 40.8% 48.79% 51.21%
40% 40% 44% 41.1% 48.52% 51.48%
40% 40% 45% 41.4% 48.26% 51.74%
Votes 65,166 31,488 33,757
40% 40% 56% 44.3% 45.61% 54.39%
Votes 69,847 31,973 38,126
Generic Poll % RCP Avg % House
Election Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep
2016 46 45.4 48 49.1 194 241
2014 43.2 45.6 45.2 51.4 188 247
2012 47.3 47.5 49.2 48 201 234
Average 45.5 46.2 47.5 49.5 194.3 240.7

What if the Repubs win 53% of Independents, assuming equal 40% registered voter turnout? Then they win the Generic vote by 51-49%.

Scenario II Party-ID Turnout/ Reg Voters Turnout Votes (000) Repub Dem
Rep 27% 40% 17020 90% 10%
Dem 28% 40% 17651 10% 90%
Ind 45% 40% 28367 53% 47%
Total 100% 40.0% 50.95% 49.05%
Votes 63,038 32,118 30,920
Date Sample Dem% Repub% Spread
 RCP 9-poll Average 9/27 – 10/9 48.1 41.2 6.9
Economist/YouGov 10/7 – 10/9 1162 RV 47 41 6
Reuters/Ipsos 10/3 – 10/9 2012 LV 50 38 12
CNN 10/4 – 10/7 739 LV 54 41 13
Emerson 10/1 – 10/4 1000 RV 50 42 8
NPR/PBS/ Marist 10/1 – 10/1 996 RV 48 42 6
Harvard-Harris 9/29 – 9/30 1330 RV 45 37 8
Quinnipiac 9/27 – 9/30 1111 RV 49 42 7
7-poll Average 49.0 40.4 8.6
Rasmussen Reports 9/30 – 10/4 2500 LV 45 45 0
IBD/TIPP 9/27 – 10/3 846 RV 45 43 2
Average 45.0 44.0 1.0
 
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Posted by on October 11, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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GOP wins Texas senate district 19 for first time in 139 years

Richard Charnin
Sept.27, 2018

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Flores (GOP) wins Texas senate district 19 (53-47%) for the first time in 139 years. Hispanics comprise 66%, blacks 7%, whites 27%.

Hillary Clinton carried  SD19 by 12%. Trump carried TX by 7%.

TX 2016 Clinton Trump Other Trump 2pty
White 57% 26% 69% 5% 73%
Black 11% 84% 11% 5% 12%
Hispanic 24% 61% 34% 5% 36%
Asian 5% 72% 26% 2% 27%
Other 3% 56% 36% 8% 39%
Total 100.0% 44.0% 51.1% 4.9% 53.8%

In SD19, Flores did 9% (estimated) better than Trump. The following table shows how the groups may have voted.

SD19 (2-party) Pct Trump Flores
White 27% 73% 73%
Black 7% 12% 24%
Hispanic 66% 36% 48%
Total 100% 44.3% 53.1%

Recent polling shows Democratic U.S. senators are vulnerable in close races in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota and New Jersey.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018/09/20/gop-victory-in-texas-race-is-good-sign-that-republicans-can-defy-history-in-midterms.html

 
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Posted by on September 27, 2018 in 2016 election, 2018 Elections

 

2018 Generic Ballot Scenarios

Richard Charnin
9/25/2018

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2018 Generic Ballot Scenarios

Real Clear Politics: Democrats lead 48.7-41.2%
Given: Gallup voter affiliation 28R-27D-45I
2016 Census: Total Registered Voters = 157,596,000
The RCP 7.5% Dem margin requires a 56-40% Dem lead in registered voter turnout

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

Generic Poll Model Row 132: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1619968863

Assume equal 40% Dem, Rep, Ind turnout
Result: Republicans win Generic vote 45.05-44.62%

The RCP 7.5% Dem margin requires a 56-40% Dem lead in registered voter turnout

Turnout 2018 Party-ID Turnout/ Reg % Turnout Rep Dem Other
Rep 28% 40% 17651 86% 7% 7%
Dem 27% 40% 17020 6% 88% 6%
Ind 45% 40% 28367 43% 42% 15%
Total 100% 40.00% 45.05% 44.62% 10.33%
Votes 63,038 28,399 28,128 6,512
Rep Ind Dem Turnout Total Turnout Rep Dem Other
40% 40% 40% 40.00% 45.05% 44.62% 10.33%
40% 40% 41% 40.27% 44.79% 44.91% 10.30%
40% 40% 42% 40.54% 44.53% 45.20% 10.27%
40% 40% 43% 40.81% 44.27% 45.48% 10.24%
40% 40% 44% 41.08% 44.02% 45.76% 10.22%
40% 40% 45% 41.35% 43.78% 46.04% 10.19%
Votes 65,166 28,526 30,000 6,640
40% 40% 56% 44.32% 41.24% 48.85% 9.91%
Votes 69,847 28,807 34,119 6,920

Historical Turnout
http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present

 

 
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Posted by on September 25, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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