Simple math proves 2020 fraud: Exact match (Trump has 52.9%) using three methods: 1) True Vote Model, 2) Voter registration and 3) fraud adjustments!

Richard Charnin – Dec.21,2020

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Consider these facts: When you win a record low 17% of counties, lose Black & Hispanic support, lose 18/19 Bellwether Counties, lose Ohio, Florida, & Iowa — and lose 27/27 House “Toss-Ups” — but you shatter the popular vote record, you must have stolen the election.

Simple math proves the massive fraud: Trump has exactly 52.9% using three methods: 1) True Vote Model, 2) registration anomalies and 3) fraud component adjustments to the recorded vote! Believe it or not: the models were not forced to match. They were derived independently. I was as surprised as anyone when I saw the triple match.

True Vote Election Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=297739797

	Election Model	Gallup
	Turnout	Party-ID	Biden	Trump	Other
Dem	49.1	31.0%	87.5%	12.0%	0.5%
Rep	49.1	31.0%	3.8%	95.0%	1.2%
Ind	60.2	38.0%	45.0%	52.0%	3.0%
	National Model	100.0%	45.4%	52.9%	1.7%
	Votes	158.3	71.9	83.8	2.64
	Margin/EV	11.9	149	389
	State Model	100.0%	45.4%	53.4%	1.2%
	Votes	158.3	71.9	84.5	1.88
	Margin/EV	12.6	149	389
	Recorded		51.4%	46.9%	1.7%
	Votes	158.3	81.3	74.2	2.84
	Margin/EV	-7.1	306	232

Fraud model: Trump won by 52.9-45.4% using adjustments to the recorded vote. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2020/12/19/2020-fraud-model18-states/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=376710386

Adjusted	Biden	Trump	Biden	Trump	Margin	EV
U.S.	71,529	83,429	45.4%	52.9%	11,900	343
18 states	45,074	47,394	48.0%	50.5%	2,320	185
AZ	1,471	1,847	43.7%	54.8%	376	11
CA	9,777	6,921	57.4%	40.6%	-2,856
CO	1,588	1,535	49.7%	48.1%	-52
FL	4,661	6,119	42.8%	56.2%	1,457	29
GA	2,177	2,722	43.9%	54.9%	545	16
IA	677	985	40.1%	58.4%	309	7
IL	3,055	2,751	51.6%	46.5%	-305
ME	383	422	46.2%	50.9%	39	4
MI	2,468	2,989	44.5%	53.9%	521	16
MN	1,511	1,647	47.1%	51.3%	136	10
NH	425	366	52.9%	45.5%	-59
NM	442	468	47.5%	50.3%	26	5
NV	619	758	43.9%	53.8%	140	6
NY	4,588	3,784	54.1%	44.6%	-804
PA	3,045	3,734	44.4%	54.4%	689	20
TX	4,628	6,337	41.6%	57.0%	1,709	38
VA	2,124	2,220	48.2%	50.3%	96	13
WI	1,435	1,789	43.8%	54.7%	354	10
Summary	Votes	Biden	Trump	Biden	Trump	Margin
33 states recorded	63,745	26,456	36,035	41.5%	56.5%	9,579
18 states adjusted	93,916	45,074	47,394	48.0%	50.5%	2,320
Total	157,661	71,529	83,429	45.4%	52.9%	11,900

Voter registration: There were 212 million registered voters in 2020. Just 66.2% (140.3m) voted. Trump had at least 74.2m and 3rd parties had 2.7m. Biden has a fraudulent 81.3m. Therefore at most 63.4m= 140.3-74.2-2.7 voted for Biden. Trump won by at least 10.8 million: 74.2-63.4m (52.9-45.2%).

William Binney registered voter analysis: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/12/breaking-huge-simple-math-shows-biden-claims-13-million-votes-eligible-voters-voted-2020-election/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Binney_(intelligence_official)

Registered voters by state: https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/number-of-registered-voters-by-state.

 

2020 Fraud Model

Richard Charnin Dec. 19, 2020

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The 2020 Fraud Model has been updated for 18 states with 302 EV. The election was a massive fraud.

Biden won the bogus recorded vote: 51.4-46.9%, 306 EV, 7.6 million margin; Trump won the adjusted vote: 52.9-45.4%, 343 EV, 11.9 million margin. See the spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=376710386

Assumptions for each state: 1) 7% would have flipped from Biden to Trump if the media had reported on the Joe/Hunter Biden scandals, 2) 3% Stuffed/illegal ballots for Biden, 3) 1% Lost Trump ballots, 4) 2% Voting machine flip from Trump to Biden.

Sensitivity analysis (9 scenarios) Media effect: 3,7,10%; Voting machine flip: 1,2,3%

The Biden recorded margin in GA, AZ, WI was exceeded by the Libertarian party (Jorgensen) vote. Of course, the Dems would have just cheated more to overcome the difference. The Biden margin vs. the Jorgensen recorded vote: GA: 12k vs. 62k, PA: 82k vs. 79k, AZ: 10k vs. 51k, WI: 21k vs. 38k NV: 33k vs. 15k

	NATIONAL	Biden	Trump	Other
158,209	Recorded	81,283	74,223	2,703
	Share	51.38%	46.91%	1.71%
Adjustments	Media	7%	5,690
	stuffed/illegal	3%	2,438
	lost ballots	1%	813
	machine flip	2%	1,626
157,461	Adjusted	71,529	83,429	2,703
	Share	45.4%	52.9%	1.71%
		Media effect
	4%	7%	10%
Machine flip		Trump
3%	51.9%	53.4%	55.0%
2%	51.4%	52.9%	54.5%
1%	50.9%	52.4%	53.9%
		Trump votes
3%	81,803	84,241	86,680
2%	80,990	83,429	85,867
1%	80,177	82,616	85,054
		Biden votes
3%	73,155	70,716	68,278
2%	73,968	71,529	69,091
1%	74,780	72,342	69,903
		Trump Margin
3%	8,648	13,525	18,402
2%	7,023	11,900	16,777
1%	5,397	10,274	15,151

States	Votes	Biden	Trump	Biden	Trump	Margin
33 recorded	65,193	26,456	36,035	40.6%	55.3%	9,579
18 adjusted	92,467	45,074	47,394	48.0%	50.5%	2,320
51 total	157,661	71,529	83,429	45.4%	52.9%	11,900

Adjusted	Model	Biden	Trump	Biden	Trump	Margin	EV
Total	Trump 343 EV	71,529	83,429	45.4%	52.9%	11,900	343
185 EV	18 states	45,074	47,394	48.7%	51.3%	2,320	185
11	AZ	1,471	1,847	43.7%	54.8%	376	11
55	CA	9,777	6,921	57.4%	40.6%	-2,856
9	CO	1,588	1,535	49.7%	48.1%	-52
29	FL	4,661	6,119	42.8%	56.2%	1,457	29
16	GA	2,177	2,722	43.9%	54.9%	545	16
7	IA	677	985	40.1%	58.4%	309	7
20	IL	3,055	2,751	51.6%	46.5%	-305
4	ME	383	422	46.2%	50.9%	39	4
16	MI	2,468	2,989	44.5%	53.9%	521	16
10	MN	1,511	1,647	47.1%	51.3%	136	10
4	NH	425	366	52.9%	45.5%	-59
5	NM	442	468	47.5%	50.3%	26	5
6	NV	619	758	43.9%	53.8%	140	6
29	NY	4,588	3,784	54.1%	44.6%	-804
20	PA	3,045	3,734	44.4%	54.4%	689	20
38	TX	4,628	6,337	41.6%	57.0%	1,709	38
13	VA	2,124	2,220	48.2%	50.3%	96	13
10	WI	1,435	1,789	43.8%	54.7%	354	10

 

2020 Adjustments to the bogus recorded vote: National and Michigan

Richard Charnin 12/16/20

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2020 Adjustments to the bogus recorded vote: National and Michigan

Updates: AZ, PA, GA, WI, NV, VA, IA, FL, CA, TX. View the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/

The media has reported that 10% of Biden voters would have voted for Trump if they knew of the Hunter/Biden corruption. But of course, not a word until after the election. This analysis looks at the effects on the recorded vote, nationally and in Michigan. The assumptions are the same for both:

1- Media blackout 10%, 2- Stuffed ballots 1%, 3-Machine votes flipped 3%, 4- Trump votes lost 1%

Sensitivity analysis: National and Michigan (9 scenarios) 2,3,4% machine flip; 8,10,12% media blackout effect: Results of the sensitivity analysis:

National Trump:

Case Pct Votes Margin

Best 56.6% 88.1 20.6

Base 55.1% 85.6 15.7

Worst 53.5%, 83.2 10.8

Michigan Trump:

Case Pct Votes Margin

Best 57.6% 3.16 0.83

Base 56.0% 3.07 0.66

Worst 54.5% 2.99 0.49

NATIONAL	Recorded	Biden	Trump
155,506	Votes	81,283	74,223
Adjustments	Media coverup	10%
	stuffed ballots	1%
	lost ballots	0%	1%
	machine flip	3%
	Adjusted
	Votes	81,283	74,223
	Media coverup	-8,128	8,128
	stuffed	-813	0
	Lost	0	813
	flipped	-2,438	2,438
155,506	Votes	69,903	85,603
	Pct	44.95%	55.05%
Sensitivity		Media effect
	8%	10%	12%
NATIONAL
4%	54.53%	55.57%	56.62%
3%	54.00%	55.05%	56.09%
2%	53.48%	54.53%	55.57%
		Trump votes
4%	84,790	86,415	88,041
3%	83,977	85,603	87,228
2%	83,164	84,790	86,415
		Biden votes
4%	70,716	69,091	67,465
3%	71,529	69,903	68,278
2%	72,342	70,716	69,091
		Trump Margin
4%	14,074	17,325	20,576
3%	12,448	15,699	18,951
2%	10,822	14,074	17,325
MICHIGAN		Biden	Trump
5484	Votes	2804	2680
	Media	10%
	stuffed ballots	1%
	lost ballots	0%	1%
	machine flip	3%
	Votes	2,804	2,680
	Media	-280	280
	stuffed	-28	0
	Lost	0	28
	flipped	-84	84
5,484	Votes	2,411	3,073
	Pct	43.97%	56.03%
Sensitivity		Media effect
	8%	10%	12%
Machine flip		Trump share
4%	55.52%	56.54%	57.56%
3%	55.01%	56.03%	57.05%
2%	54.49%	55.52%	56.54%
		Trump votes
4%	3,045	3,101	3,157
3%	3,016	3,073	3,129
2%	2,988	3,045	3,101
		Biden votes
4%	2,439	2,383	2,327
3%	2,468	2,411	2,355
2%	2,496	2,439	2,383
		Trump Margin
4%	605	717	829
3%	549	661	773
2%	493	605	717

 

2020 vs 2016: Exit Poll Anomalies

Richard Charnin – Dec. 14, 2020

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Note Trump’s gains from 2016 to 2020 in BG state Party ID and the national minority vote. The gains are conservative since the National Exit Poll is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it is fraudulent. ZERO FRAUD IS ALWAYS ASSUMED.

Nationally, Trump gained 4% of blacks, 4% of Latinos and 7% of Asians. He gained in Party-ID in ALL 14 Battleground states. So how did Trump lose: F-R-A-U-D. Inquiring minds need to look at the data.

2020 Party-ID Gain from 2016	Rep	Dem	Net Repub Gain
National Party ID	3%	1%	2%
AZ	3%	-2%	5%
CO	1%	-3%	4%
FL	5%	-2%	7%
GA	2%	0%	2%
ME	1%	-3%	4%
MI	7%	-2%	9%
MN	-1%	-2%	1%
NC	6%	-1%	7%
NH	3%	-5%	8%
NV	7%	-1%	8%
OH	2%	-3%	5%
PA	2%	-2%	4%
VA	1%	-4%	5%
WI	3%	-3%	6%
Average	3.0%	-2.4%	5.4%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=1445991396

 

PhD Professor: Probability of a Biden win is less than One in a Quadrillion!

Richard Charnin – Dec. 9, 2020

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Probability of a Biden win: less than One in a Quadrillion!

Dr. Charles J. Cicchetti Ph.D., a USC economics professor and Statistician in the Texas Lawsuit Against Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, says that the probability of Biden winning the election was less than One in a Quadrillion in the brief submitted to the Supreme Court, Texas, by the Pacific Economics Group.

Dr. Cicchetti is the former Deputy Director at the Energy and Environmental Policy Center at Harvard University’s John Kennedy School of Government and received his Ph.D. in economics from Rutgers University.

According to Dr. Cicchetti, his calculations show the probability of Joe Biden winning the popular vote in the four states independently given President Trump’s early lead in those states as of 3 a.m. on November 4, 2020, is less than one in a quadrillion (1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000).

The probability that Biden would win PA, WI, GA, MI independently given Trump’s lead and the number of votes outstanding is P = 2.02E-109 =1/ trillion^9 = 1 in (1,000,000,000,000)^9.

In the four states, 14.26m of 20.33m votes were counted. Trump led by 7.84-6.42m(54.7-44.7%). Biden needed 3.75m (61.7%) of 6.07m outstanding votes to tie Trump’s 4 state total – a 17.0% increase in vote share.

View the calculations:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=1382956

Professor: Probability of Biden winning given Trump’s early lead is ‘less than one in a quadrillion’

 

Adjusting for the Fraud: Trump won 14 Battleground states by approximately 4.0%

Richard Charnin – Dec. 8, 2020

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The 14 BG states recorded vote (Biden winning by 49.8-48.6%) is fraudulent. The adjusted vote calculated below is closer to the truth: Trump won the BG states by approximately 51.2-47.2%.

Given: Biden leads the fraudulent recorded vote by 51.5-46.8% nationally (7.5 million vote margin). According to the National Exit Poll, Party ID was 37D-36R-27I. Trump won 94% of Repubs, Biden 94% of Dems. But this is the kicker: Biden won Independents by 54-41%. Really? Consider the BG states.

In 14 Battleground states, Biden has a small 1.2% lead (49.8-48.6%). But the Repubs lead the Dems in Party-ID: 36.3R-32.6D-31.1I. Trump has just 92.6% of Repubs, Biden has 95.2% of Dems. Biden leads Independents by 52.4-43.5%. This anomaly is the result of massive fraud.

Problem: Why is it that in the BG states, Repubs have a 36.3-32.6% lead in Party-ID but the Dems lead by 37-36% in the National Party-ID?

Solution: Match to the national poll shares. Add 2% to Trump’s share of Repubs, 1% to his share of Dems and 5% to his share of Independents. Biden is not leading Independents by 13% nationally or by 9% in the 14 BG states!

Result: After the adjustments, Trump leads by 51.2-47.2% in the BG states. Which means that he won the six contested states easily.

National Recorded Vote: Party-ID

	2020 NEP
	Party-ID	Biden	Trump	Other
Repub	36%	6%	94%	0%
Dem	37%	94%	5%	1%
Ind	27%	54%	41%	5%
Vote	100%	51.5%	46.8%	1.7%
	157.8	81.3	73.8	2.7
	Margin	7.5

Recorded Battleground Vote Shares

2020	BG
NEP	Party-ID	Trump	Biden	Other
Rep	36.3%	92.6%	6.8%	0.6%
Dem	32.6%	4.4%	95.2%	0.4%
Ind	31.1%	43.5%	52.4%	4.1%
Calc	100.0%	48.6%	49.8%	1.6%
Recorded	100.0%	48.6%	49.8%	1.6%

Adjusted Battleground Vote Shares

NEP	Party-ID	Trump	Biden	Other
Rep	36.3%	94.6%	4.8%	0.6%
Dem	32.6%	5.4%	94.2%	0.4%
Ind	31.1%	48.5%	47.4%	4.1%
Calc	100.0%	51.2%	47.2%	1.6%
Recorded	100.0%	48.6%	49.8%	1.6%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=1101289070

 

This is why Trump will win

Richard Charnin Dec. 7, 2020

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This is why Trump will win re-election. He  has 232 EV and needs 270. He has 13 paths to victory. Biden has 10.  Biden’s bogus margin in each of the six BG states is easily overcome by the massive evidence of fraud already discovered. In addition to viewing and hearing the evidence, SCOTUS  will not allow a stolen election to enable the Dems packing the court.

………. EV Margin

PA     20 81k

MI   16 153k

GA    16 13k

AZ     11 11k

WI     10  20k

NV      6  33k

Total  79 EV

Trump will have

311 EV if he wins all 6 states

284 EV if he wins MI, GA, PA

279 EV if he wins AZ, MI, PA

279 EV if he wins AZ, GA, PA

278 EV if he wins WI, GA, PA

278 EV if he wins WI, MI, PA

275 EV if he wins AZ, GA, MI

275 EV if he wins AZ, WI, MI, NV

275 EV if he wins AZ, WI, GA, NV

274 EV if he wins WI, MI, GA

274 EV if he wins NV, GA, PA

274 EV if he wins NV, MI, PA

273 EV if he wins AZ, WI, PA

270 EV if he wins NV, GA, MI

 

2020 Election National Exit Poll Demographic analysis: How did you vote in 2016, Party-ID and a Sensitivity analysis of alternate vote share assumptions

Richard Charnin – Dec. 5, 2020

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This is an analysis of how the National Exit Poll (NEP) forces a match to the final reported vote, even if it is fraudulent. We focus on two major demographics: Returning 2016 voters and party affiliation.

Trump won the 2020 election in a landslide. This should be obvious to anyone who looks at the overwhelming evidence of fraud. Yet the mainstream media keeps claiming there is no fraud and censors honest analysis. They have no respect for our collective intelligence. The MSM knows they are complicit in a major coverup. But why should they care? How do they sleep at night and look at themselves in the morning? They continue to make fools of themselves.

Note that the NEP How Voted 2016 demographic indicates that 43% voted for Trump and 40% for Clinton. This is interesting since we are constantly fed propaganda by the media and politicians that Clinton won the popular vote by 2%. Prior 2016 analysis shows that it is a myth; Trump easily won the popular vote. The DNC tried to steal the 2016 election, just like they are in 2020. But Trump has a much bigger margin than he had in 2016. The 2020 election fraud is massive. Biden won the reported vote by 80.7-74.6 million (51.0-47.1%).

The analysis is based on two adjustment calculations to the NEP. In Adjustment 1, the 2016 reported vote (Clinton by 48.2-46.1%) is assumed to represent returning 2016 voters in 2020. Trump wins by 50.6-48.4%. In Adjustment 2, returning 2016 voters are based on the 2020 NEP (Trump by 43-40%). Trump wins by 9.5 million votes (51.8-45.8%). In both cases, equal turnout rates of returning of Trump and Clinton voters is assumed. This is conservative: Historicaly, Republicans turn out at greater rates than Democrats.

In the Sensitivity analysis of 25 scenarios: Trump has 91-95% share of returning Trump voters and 5-9% of Clinton voters. His vote margins range from 2.9 (worst case) to 11.6 million (best case).

In the Party-ID demographic, Democrats comprised 37% and Republicans 36%. Biden won 94% of Democrats and 6% of Republicans, Trump won 94% of Republicans and just 5% of Democrats. But Biden led Independents by 54-41%, giving him a 7.5 million vote margin (51.5-46.8%). In the adjusted calculation, I use the latest Gallup voter affiliation weights (31D-31R-28I) and estimate that Trump had 52% of Independents and won by 6.8 million votes (50.6-47.1%).

View the spreadsheet calculations. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=0

The National Exit Poll: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

This article from Paul Craig Roberts, an eminent historian, spells it all out.

The Proof Is In: The Election Was Stolen

 

Must Read from Paul Craig Roberts: The Proof Is In: The Election Was Stolen

The Proof Is In: The Election Was Stolen

For those of you who find it too technical and voluminous to read through the massive evidence of election fraud, here is a brief summary: 

” I have read enough of the fraud reports, affidavits, and statements from election security and forensic experts to be comfortable in my conclusion that the election was stolen.  But I am not confident that anything will be done about the fraudulent election. The American elite no longer believe in democracy. Consider, for example, the World Economic Forum’s Great Reset.  It is anti-democratic, as is globalism. Democracy is in the way of elite agendas.  Indeed, the reason the elite despise Trump is that he bases himself in the people. Judges will not even preserve the vote record so that it can be investigated.

In Georgia a federal judge has refused to stop the Dominion voting machines from being wiped clean and reset—https://www.theepochtimes.com/judge-blocks-then-unblocks-georgia-from-wiping-or-resetting-election-machines_3597691.html   UPDATE: Judge overturns his previous order and reinstates ban on wiping and resetting Dominion machines used in Atlanta. 

 

2020 battleground state exit polls confirm election fraud by the DNC in 2016 and 2020

Richard Charnin Dec. 3, 2020

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The 2020 battleground state exit polls confirm election fraud by the DNC in 2016 and 2020. The following exit polls were (as always) forced to match the reported vote. The respondents were asked: How did you vote in 2016? In each state, the majority of respondents said they voted for Trump over Clinton: FL 44-38%, GA 40-38, MI 42-40, MN 41-39, PA 44-41, WI 42-39. Note: Clinton won MN by 46.4-44.9%.

You would expect that Trump would do much better against Biden who hid in his basement, never answered reporters questions and drew just a handful of people at his events compared to thousands for Trump at his many rallies.

Consider this fact: Reported national and state exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote. In other words zero fraud is assumed. That is a simple reason why we should never believe the final polls. But with appropriate adjustments to the poll weights and vote shares, the bogus exit polls can be used to estimate the True Vote.

Since the 2020 state exit polls were forced to match the bogus Biden vote, Trump’s True 2016 shares may very well be higher than the 2020 polls indicate. It was rigged for Clinton just like 2020 was rigged for Biden. Trump did better than the recorded vote in 2016 and 2020. He must have won all the battleground states by margins greater than recorded in 2016. The massive evidence of fraud confirms it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit?

FL	2016 Pct	Biden	Trump
Clinton	38	93	6
Trump	44	7	92
Other	5	66	25
DNV	13	54	45
Total	100	48.74	49.86
GA	2016 Pct	Biden	Trump
Clinton	38	96	3
Trump	40	6	94
Other	5	70	22
DNV	15	22	46
Total	98	45.68	46.74
MI	2016 Pct	Biden	Trump
Clinton	40	96	4
Trump	42	6	94
Other	4	–	–
DNV	11	51	48
Total	97	46.53	46.36
MN	2016 Pct	Biden	Trump
Clinton	39	96	3
Trump	41	7	92
Other	8	54	35
DNV	10	35	34
Total	98	48.13	45.09

PA	2016 Pct	Biden	Trump
Clinton	41	95	4
Trump	44	7	92
Other	4	–	–
DNV	10	63	36
Total	99	48.33	45.72

WI	2016 Pct	Biden	Trump
Clinton	39	95	4
Trump	42	6	93
Other	7	56	35
DNV	11	46	49
Total	99	48.55	48.46