Rasmussen vs. WaPo: Trump Approval

Richard Charnin
Updated: Aug.31, 2018

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

According to Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Trump has a 48% total approval rating. Among black voters, he has 34% approval.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

The Washington Post tried to refute Rasmussen’s results with an article entitled “No, one-third of African Americans don’t support Trump. Not even close”.

The  Post needs to take an algebra class. WaPo says Trump total approval is 36% with 3% black approval. This is mathematically impossible, counter-intuitive and an insult to the intelligence of any rational reader.  

Once again, WaPo bias is showing. Given Rasmussen’s 48% total Trump approval, then 34% of blacks approve and 50% of non-blacks approve. Here is the proof based on the 88% non-black/12% black split of the electorate.
Given: Trump Approval =.48 (total)
Blacks = 12% of the electorate (34% Trump approval)
Let X = total non-black approval
.48= .88*X+.12*34
X=(.48-.12*.34)/.88
X= 0.50 non-black approval

Proof: If Trump has 3% black approval, then he must have 40% total approval (45% non-black approval) given the 88/12% split.
Total approval = non-black approval + black approval = .40 =0.88*0.45+0.12*0.03

The Harris-Harvard Poll shows that Trump has 45% total approval.
https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/news/caps-harris-poll-foreign-policy-and-supreme-court

WaPo Trump approval shenanigans: Party-ID
Once again, they over-sample Democrats. But they also inflate the poll shares. In this conservative analysis the Gallup poll shares are set equal to WaPo:
Trump approval: WaPo 34.4%, Gallup 38.5%

WaPo
……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 25 78
Indep 37 35
Dem.. 33 6
Total 95 34.4
Gallup
……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 28 78
Indep 43 35
Dem.. 27 6
Total 98 38.5

Sensitivity- Adjust Republican and Independent Trump approval
Gallup
……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 28 90
Indep 43 43
Dem 27 6
Total 98 45.3

https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2018/08/31/National-Politics/Polling/question_20686.xml?uuid=UnUesq0MEeiafc0wUE_5Ag
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

According to the National Exit Poll, Trump had 8% of the recorded black vote. But he did much better than that since the NEP, as always, was forced to match a bogus recorded vote inflated for Clinton. Trump’s approval among blacks has risen sharply since the election (black unemployment is at an all-time low).

Trump	Trump	Non-black	Approval
Black	0.440	0.460	0.480	0.500
Approval	Trump	Total	Approval
0.40	0.435	0.453	0.470	0.488
0.38	0.433	0.450	0.468	0.486
0.36	0.430	0.448	0.466	0.483
0.34	0.428	0.446	0.463	0.481
0.03	0.391	0.408	0.426	0.444

How does Trump’s approval among blacks translate to the popular vote?

Assume
1) 2016 National Exit poll white, latino, asian recorded vote shares. Note: Trump’s true shares were likely understated to force a match to the bogus recorded vote.
2) 2016 Census Race percentage breakdown
3) Trump’s vote share among blacks is equal to 36%.

Trump wins by 9 million votes.

National Exit Poll (adjusted to match recorded vote)
Race Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 71% 37% 57% 6%
Black 12% 89% 8% 3%
Latin 11% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 4% 65% 27% 8%
Other 2% 56% 36% 8%
Total 100% 47.9% 46.3% 5.8%

Census/NEP adjusted to 36% black approval
Census Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 73.30% 36.7% 56.8% 6.5%
Black 12.45% 61% 36% 3%  
Latin 9.22% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 3.67% 65% 27% 8%
Other 1.36% 56% 36% 8%
Votes 138.2 60.4 69.4 8.4
Share 100% 43.7% 50.2% 6.1%

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1200a1TrumpandtheMuellerInvestigation.pdf https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415

Census Table 4b. Reported Voting and Registration, by Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin, for States: November 2016
2016 Presidential Election Model

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2016: Were Clinton’s pre-election poll numbers (and recorded vote) inflated?

Richard Charnin
Aug.3, 2018

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

Clinton’s average pre-election 10-poll approval rating (41.8%) was exceeded by her 47.6% average poll and 48.3% recorded vote. Did Clinton’s average pre-election approval rating closely approximate her true vote? Were her poll numbers inflated?

In the post-election True Vote Model, Trump won by an estimated 50.5-43.4% (9.7 million votes).

In 16 battleground states, Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%. Clinton led the pre-election polls by 44.5-44.1%. When undecided voters are allocated (UVA), Trump leads the 16-poll average 46.6-45.3%. Using the Gallup National Voter affiliation survey (40Ind-32Dem-28Rep) to derive each state’s Party-ID, Trump leads 48.9-43.1%.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/09/15/2016-pre-election-polls-in-16-battleground-states-were-biased-for-clinton

Clinton Pre-election Approval/Poll
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=34911100

Clinton	Average	41.8	47.6
Pollster	Date	Approval	Poll
CBS News/NY Times	1030	35	47
McClatchy/Marist	1101	40	47
ABC/Wash Post	1102	42	49
Reuters/Ipsos	1102	49	44
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	1103	38	48
FOX News	1103	44	48
Monmouth	1103	37	50
Gravis	1103	46	48
Bloomberg	1104	46	46
Economist/YouGov	1104	43	49

True Vote Model

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/04/05/23743/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415

	Total	Clinton	Trump	Other	Margin
Recorded	136.22	65.72	62.89	7.61	2.83
		48.25%	46.17%	5.59%	2.08%
Illegal	-3.0	-2.55	-0.30	-0.15	-2.25
Disenfran	4.0	3.40	0.40	0.20	3.00
Vote Flip	0.0	-7.00	6.30	0.70	-13.30
True Vote	137.22	59.57	69.29	8.36	9.72
True Vote%		43.41%	50.50%	6.09%	7.08%

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy

 

Memo to the President Ahead of Monday’s Summit

Richard Charnin
July 15,2018

Ray McGovern and Bill Binney have written an open letter to President Trump ahead of Monday’s summit. 

https://consortiumnews.com/2018/07/15/memo-to-the-president-ahead-of-mondays-summit/

With Friday’s indictments of Russian intelligence officers, Ray McGovern and Bill Binney have written an open letter to President Trump making clear that the “evidence” behind the indictments is as fraudulent as the intelligence alleging WMD in Iraq. It is being published exclusively here ahead of the Trump-Putin summit on Monday.

BRIEFING FOR: The President
FROM: Ray McGovern, former CIA briefer of The President’s Daily Brief, and William Binney, former Technical Director at NSA

SUBJECT: Info Your Summit Briefers May Have Missed

We reproduce below one of our most recent articles on “Russia-Gate,” which, in turn, draws from our Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity Memorandum to you of July 24, 2017.

At the time of that Memorandum we wrote:

“Forensic studies of “Russian hacking” into Democratic National Committee computers last year reveal that on July 5, 2016, data was leaked (not hacked) by a person with physical access to DNC computer. After examining metadata from the “Guccifer 2.0” July 5, 2016 intrusion into the DNC server, independent cyber investigators have concluded that an insider copied DNC data onto an external storage device.

Key among the findings of the independent forensic investigations is the conclusion that the DNC data was copied onto a storage device at a speed that far exceeds an Internet capability for a remote hack.”

“We do not know who or what the murky Guccifer 2.0 is. You may wish to ask the FBI,” we wrote. However, we now have forensic evidence that shows the data provided by Guccifer 2.0 had been manipulated and is a fabrication.

We also discussed CIA’s cyber-tool “Marble Framework,” which can hack into computers, “obfuscate” who hacked, and leave behind incriminating, tell-tale signs in Russian; and we noted that this capability had been employed during 2016.  As we pointed out, Putin himself made an unmistakable reference to this “obfuscating” tool during an interview with Megan Kelly.

Our article of June 7, 2018, explains further:

“Still Waiting for Evidence of a Russian Hack”

If you are wondering why so little is heard these days of accusations that Russia hacked into the U.S. election in 2016, it could be because those charges could not withstand close scrutiny. It could also be because special counsel Robert Mueller appears to have never bothered to investigate what was once the central alleged crime in Russia-gate as no one associated with WikiLeaks has ever been questioned by his team.

Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity — including two “alumni” who were former National Security Agency technical directors — have long since concluded that Julian Assange did not acquire what he called the “emails related to Hillary Clinton” via a “hack” by the Russians or anyone else. They found, rather, that he got them from someone with physical access to Democratic National Committee computers who copied the material onto an external storage device — probably a thumb drive. In December 2016 VIPS explained this in some detail in an open Memorandum to President Barack Obama.

more…

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote: Polling Anomalies, Democratic Defections, Independents and Late Undecided Voters
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy

 

 

2016: Vote Rigging from the Democratic primary to the election

Richard Charnin
July 11, 2018

Who owns the Voting Machines?
“Concerns are being raised over ties between George Soros, a billionaire and political activist with deep ties to Hillary Clinton, and an electronic voting company with machines in 16 states. The chairman of the London-based company, Smartmatic International, is Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, who also works under Soros. https://www.theepochtimes.com/voting-machines-in-16-states-tied-to-george-soros-ally_2176907.html

Malloch-Brown is on the board of the Open Society Foundations, run by Soros. His brief biography on the Smartmatic website says he was also formerly the vice chairman of Soros’s Investment Funds and of Soros’s Open Society Foundations.”

The Rigged Democratic primary 
It is established fact: HRC stole the primary from Bernie Sanders. http://projectcensored.org/clintonistasdnc-illegally-stole-democratic-primaries-bernie-sanders/

Her approval ratings were 10% lower than Sanders.  Trump won the GOP primary easily. Hillary knew she would lose to Trump in a fair election, so she had to rig the general. She tried to steal the election -but Trump had too big a lead.

The Popular Vote Myth

The myth that Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million is parroted daily by pundits, even Trump supporters. It’s 2018 and the pundits still fail to recognize the historical fact that the recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote. Clinton won the fraudulent recorded vote, but Trump won the True Vote. It’s past time for a great awakening. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/04/05/23743/

Trump won the estimated True Vote by 50.5-43.4%, a 9.7 million vote margin.

We estimate the True Vote based on the following simple models. Given Model 1 adjustments to the recorded vote, we calculate an estimated True Vote. In models 2,3,4,5 we calculate the vote shares required to match the True Vote.

1 Adjustments to the recorded vote: illegals , disenfranchised, voting machine flips

2 Race: Census breakdown and shares of white and non-white voters

3 Returning 2012 voters and 2016 vote shares

4 Party-ID: Gallup voter survey and vote shares

5 Decided: Vote shares before and after Sept. 1

…………………..

Post-election interview with Debbie Lusignan (Sane Progressive) 

https://youtu.be/UILyRSjxN8U?t=1

 

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote: Polling Anomalies, Democratic Defections, Independents and Late Undecided Voters
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy

 

 

Clinton rigged the primary against Sanders, and then she rigged the presidential.

Richard Charnin
June 23, 2018

Clinton rigged the primary against Sanders-  and then she rigged the presidential. The MSM was in the tank for HRC.  In the presidential election, Clinton’s pre-election and unadjusted exit poll vote shares were inflated in anticipation of the fraud.

http://projectcensored.org/clintonistasdnc-illegally-stole-democratic-primaries-bernie-sanders/

“Finally, almost all election ballots are counted by computers and cannot be verified by the public. Apart from being non-transparent, this method of counting ballots is also problematic because electronic voting machines can easily be hacked. Essentially, Clintonista computer hackers could have flipped a minimum number of votes spread over a maximum number of polling stations by inserting a malicious code or algorithm into the voting tabulation software. As a result, this code would allow the final number of votes to “remain random in a way that would avoid detection by election fraud analysis tools.”

Suspiciously, multiple studies show that across all primary states, Clinton performed best in counties with electronic voting machines that didn’t leave a paper trail. https://www.theepochtimes.com/voting-machines-in-16-states-tied-to-george-soros-ally_2176907.html

Additionally, Election Justice USA found that the computer counts differed widely from the exit poll projections, but only for the Democratic Party primaries. According to election analyst Richard Charnin, Bernie Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded vote share by greater than the margin of error in 11 of 26 primaries: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. Charnin reported that the probability of this occurring is 1 in 77 billion, which raises the strong possibility of election fraud. Yet, almost no discrepancies were found in the data for the Republican Party primaries. This is particularly remarkable, because the exit polls were conducted on the same day, in the same precincts, with the same interviewers, and used the same methodologies for both the parties. So, this evidence suggests that the computer counts were only accurate for the Republican Party, while the computer counts for the Democratic Party primaries remain largely unverified.

The exit polls for the Democratic primaries were conducted by Edison Research, which is the exclusive provider of exit polls to the National Election Pool (NEP), which includes ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press. The National Election Pool has a policy that exit pollsters must adjust and force all state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote count, as if the computerized votes are always correct and as if there is no fraud!”

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/04/05/23743/

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote: Polling Anomalies, Democratic Defections, Independents and Late Undecided Voters
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy

 

 

The myth: HRC/FBI/DOJ/Deep State thought Clinton would win easily

Richard Charnin
May 1, 2018

The myth that Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million is parroted daily by pundits, even Trump supporters. Clinton won a fraudulent recorded popular vote, but Trump won the True Vote. It’s 2018 and the pundits still fail to recognize the historical fact that the recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote. It’s past time for a great awakening.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/04/05/23743/

It is established fact: HRC stole the primary from Bernie Sanders. Her approval ratings were 10% lower than Sanders. On the other hand, Trump won the GOP primary easily. Hillary knew she would lose to Trump in a fair election, so she also needed to rig the general.
http://projectcensored.org/clintonistasdnc-illegally-stole-democratic-primaries-bernie-sanders/

She tried to steal the election (rigged voting machines, illegals, dead voters). But Trump had too big a lead. https://www.theepochtimes.com/voting-machines-in-16-states-tied-to-george-soros-ally_2176907.html

The MSM inflated Clinton’s pre-election polls to set the stage.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/09/15/2016-pre-election-polls-in-16-battleground-states-were-biased-for-clinton/

Democrats were over-weighted, Independents underweighted.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/2016-election-model-forecast/

The HRC approval polls were the lowest of any presidential candidate.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=34911100

HRC internal polls probably showed her losing.Trump internal polls probably showed him winning. He warned about a rigged election in the debates and said he might contest if he lost. Clinton ridiculed Trump for bringing up election fraud. She said we must trust the final result while cheating in the debates (Donna Brazile).

Sanders voters defected to Trump and Jill Stein or did not vote.
Trump had the momentum after Sept.1. He won late deciders easily.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=793126276

The Democratic base was shattered.
Clinton joined Stein in recounts of states Trump won.
But they did not call for recounts in states Trump lost. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/12/01/the-2016-presidential-recounts-why-not-add-these-six-states/

HRC paid for the phony Pissgate Dossier. FBI/DOJ/MSM was panicking.
HRC needed a dramatic turnaround.
She had to derail Trump with Russiagate.
She claimed Russia hacked the DNC for Wikileaks.

The DNC used Crowdstrike to examine the server, that was ok with the FBI.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-24/what-crowdstrike-firm-hired-dnc-has-ties-hillary-clinton-ukrainian-billionaire-and-g
But it was a Seth Rich leak, not a hack. William Binney and VIPS proved it.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/01/31/russian-tampering-with-the-election/

Post-election Insurance Policy – destroy Trump with Russiagate.
Mueller investigation: NO COLLUSION.
Bogus DNC suit vs. Wikileaks, Trump, Russia

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote: Polling Anomalies, Democratic Defections, Independents and Late Undecided Voters
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy

 

Exposing the 2016 Popular Vote Myth

Exposing the 2016 Popular Vote Myth

Richard Charnin
April 5, 2018

The myth that Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million is parroted daily by pundits, even Trump supporters. Clinton won a fraudulent recorded popular vote, but Trump won the True Vote. It’s 2018 and the pundits still fail to recognize the historical fact that the recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote.  It’s past time for a great awakening.

Trump won the estimated True Vote by 50.5-43.4%, a 9.7 million vote margin. We estimate the True Vote based on the following simple models:

• 1 Adjustments to the recorded vote: illegal votes , disenfranchised voters, voting machine flips 
• 2 Race: Census breakdown and shares of white and non-white voters
• 3 Returning 2012 voters and 2016 vote shares
• 4 Party-ID: Gallup voter survey and vote shares
• 5 When Decided: before and after Sept. 1

Given Model 1 adjustments to the recorded vote, we calculate an estimated True Vote. In models 2,3,4,5 we estimate vote shares required to match the True Vote.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415 https://www.theepochtimes.com/voting-machines-in-16-states-tied-to-george-soros-ally_2176907.html http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president

1 Adjustment

Estimate

Clinton

Trump

Other

Illegal	3.0 mil	85%	10%	5%
Disenfran	4.0 mil	85%	10%	5%
Net Voting Machine Flip	7.0 mil	0%	90%	10%

	Total	Clinton	Trump	Other	Margin
Recorded	136.22	65.72	62.89	7.61	2.83
		48.25%	46.17%	5.59%	2.08%
Illegal	-3.0	-2.55	-0.30	-0.15	-2.25
Disenfran	4.0	3.40	0.40	0.20	3.00
Vote Flip	0.0	-7.00	6.30	0.70	-13.30
Total Vote	137.22	59.57	69.29	8.36	9.72
True Vote		43.41%	50.50%	6.09%	7.08%

2 Census	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
white (adj.)	73.30%	32.4%	61.14%	6.5%
Black	12.45%	84%	13%	3%
Latino	9.22%	66%	28%	6%
Asian	3.67%	65%	27%	8%
Other	1.36%	56%	36%	8%
True Vote	100.00%	43.41%	50.50%	6.09%
Recorded	100%	48.25%	46.17%	5.59%
3 Party-ID	Gallup Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
Dem	31.0%	88.0%	10.0%	2.0%
Rep	28.0%	5.0%	92.0%	3.0%
Ind	41.0%	36.0%	53.0%	11.0%
True Vote	100.0%	43.44%	50.59%	5.97%
Votes	137.22	59.61	69.42	8.19
4 Returning 2012 voters	Mix	Clinton	Trump	Other
Obama	41.33%	85%	10%	5%
Romney	40.80%	5%	92%	3%
Other	1.54%	35%	40%	25%
DNV (new)	16.32%	35%	51%	14%
True Vote	100.0%	43.43%	50.61%	5.96%
Votes	137.22	59.59	69.45	8.18

5 When Decided	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
Before Sept 1	60.0%	48%	48%	4.0%
After Sept 1	40.0%	37%	54%	9.2%
True Vote		43.41%	50.50%	6.09%

Sensitivity Analysis

7 million vote flip	Trump Flip
to Clinton	80%= 5.6mm	90%= 6.3mm	100%=7mm
Disenfranchised		Trump True Vote
6.0	68.79	69.49	70.19
4.0	68.59	69.29	69.99
2.0	68.39	69.09	69.79
		Trump
6.0	50.1%	50.6%	51.2%
4.0	50.0%	50.50%	51.0%
2.0	49.8%	50.4%	50.9%
		Clinton
6.0	43.8%	43.3%	42.8%
4.0	43.9%	43.41%	42.9%
2.0	44.1%	43.6%	43.0%
		Margin
6.0	8.72	10.12	11.52
4.0	8.32	9.72	11.12
2.0	7.92	9.32	10.72

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
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