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2004 Presidential Election Fraud: Overwhelming Statistical Proof that it was Stolen

2004 Presidential Election Fraud: Overwhelming Statistical Proof that it was Stolen

Richard Charnin
Oct.30, 2015

Look inside the books: 
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

It has been shown that the 2004 National Exit Poll was impossible as it was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Bush 2000 voters. It indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 45.3 million (37%) were returning Gore voters. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=7

2004 Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote)

2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV. 20.79 17.0% 54.0% 44.0% 2.00% - -
Gore 45.25 37.0% 90.0% 10.0% 0,00% 48.45 93%
Bush 52.59 43.0% 9.00% 91.0% 0.00% 47.93 110%
Other 3.67 3.00% 64.0% 14.0% 22.0% 3.798 97%
Total 122.3 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.00% 100.19 94%
Votes (millions) 59.03 62.04 1.22

But Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000, so the number of returning voters was impossible. It indicated a 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters in 2004.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x2WCPJautd_eZPIfkmW9W9vD2p1Zu0ZlvgqV_gUwLNM/edit#gid=13

Note that Gore won by 544,000 (bogus) recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%. He won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.4%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=4

The following analysis is additional confirmation that the election was stolen.

In the 2004 National Exit Poll, there were 13,660 respondents (51.7% said they voted for Kerry and 47.0% for Bush). Kerry led throughout the exit poll timeline, from 8349 at 4pm to the final 13660 respondents.

But the NEP was forced to match recorded vote by switching 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Bush. The average within precinct discrepancy (WPD) was a nearly identical 6.5%. The True Vote Model indicates that Kerry had 53.6%.

There is a conflict between the unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll in which voters were asked who they voted for (Kerry had 51.7%) and the number of returning voters in the 2004 ‘How did you vote in 2000’ crosstab (adjusted to 43% of the 2004 electorate for Bush and 37% for Gore).

Confirmation that Kerry won easily
No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, Kerry is the clear winner:

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (13660 respondents)
Sample. Kerry Bush Other
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%

Of the 13,660 (1% MoE), 3182 (2% MoE) were asked who they voted for in 2000:
1221 (38.4%) said Gore, 1257 (39.5%) Bush, 119 (3.7%) Other, 565 (18.4%) Did not vote.

Kerry had 51.7% in both the
– unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents).
– 12:22am Voted in 2000 crosstab category, assuming 38.4% of 2004 voters were returning Gore voters and 39.5% were returning Bush (as per the 3182 respondents).

But consider these returning 2000 voter scenarios:
Assuming returning 2000 voters were proportional to the…
1. 2000 Recorded vote.. Kerry had 52.4%
2. 2000 Total votes cast… Kerry had 53.1%
3. 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll… Kerry had 53.0%
4. 2000 True Vote: Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate… Kerry had 53.6%
(True Vote: plausible 2000 returning voter mix)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 22.4 17.8% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore. 52.1 41.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush. 47.4 37.7% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other. 3.8 3.1% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total 125.7 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Votes Cast...... 67.36 56.67 1.71

Note: In the 2008 National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents), 4,178 were asked how they voted in 2004. The results confirmed the 5-7% Kerry margins shown above:
Kerry had 1815 (50.2%), Bush 1614 (44.6%), Other 168 (5.2%), Did not vote 581 (13.4%)

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline
Kerry led all the way at each point in the timeline- from 8,649 to 13,660 respondents.
But the National Election Pool funds the exit pollsters. The NEP did not want the public to know that Kerry won the True Vote. So they adjusted the National Exit Poll to conform to the stolen election recorded vote. The Timeline, in conjunction with the impossible number of returning 2000 Bush voters, is a powerful confirmation that the will of the voters was compromised just like it was in 2000. Bush stole both elections.

The Washington Post displayed the 2004 National Exit Poll at 12:22am. Note that returning Nader voters (3% of the 2004 electorate) are missing in the 2000 presidential vote category. Since Kerry won at least 64% of returning Nader voters, not including them in the crosstab reduced his total vote share margin from 3.7% to 1%. Was this just an oversight?

11/02/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

11/02/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/03/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents)
Data Source: Roper Center (UConn)
Sample. Kerry Bush Other
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%

2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV... 23.12 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore.. 48.25 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush.. 49.67 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other.. 4.70 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total...100.0%.... 51.7% 46.8% 1.46%
Votes...125.7..... 65.07 58.83 1.838

Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate, 76000 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.6%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (adjusted to match the recorded vote).
Bush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Washington Post National Exit Poll, 12:22am, 13,047 respondents
The 2000 Presidential Vote category is missing the critical 3% who were returning Nader voters. Kerry won Nader voters by 64-17%. The exit pollsters also avoided the simple math calculation for total vote shares. This table includes returning Nader voters and the vote share calculation:
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%; Nader 1.3%
2000 Presidential vote:
2000... Mix Kerry Bush Nader
DNV.... 0.17 0.57 0.41 0.02
Gore... 0.39 0.91 0.08 0.01
Bush... 0.41 0.10 0.90 0.00
Nader.. 0.03 0.64 0.17 0.19
Total.. 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3%

 
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Posted by on October 30, 2015 in 2004 Election

 

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A Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the 2004 Election

A Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the 2004 Election

Richard Charnin
Sept.5, 2015
Updated: Sept.17, 2015

Look inside the books: Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Compendium of Links to all of my posts
Cumulative Vote Share Spreadsheet Reference
Spreadsheet Links: JFK Calc, Unadjusted Exit Polls, True Vote Models, Cumulative Vote shares

1. The 2000 election
There were 105.458 million recorded votes.
Gore won by 548,000 recorded votes. But his True Vote margin was much higher.
Over 5 million votes were uncounted - at least 70% for Gore.
The election was stolen.

Recorded Votes Share
Bush 50.456 47.84%
Gore 51.004 48.36%
Other 3.998 3.79%

2. Gore won the Unadjusted National Exit Poll.
He won by an equivalent 2.3 million vote margin.
Unadjusted 2000 National Exit Poll

Sample Gore Bush Other
13,108 6,359 6,065 684
Share 48.51% 46.27% 5.22%
Votes 51.16 48.80 5.82.

3. Gore won the Unadjusted State Exit Polls (50.7-45.6%), a 5.5 million vote margin.
Voted Turnout Mix....Gore..Bush..Other
Clinton 48,763 44%.....87%...10%...3%
Dole....35,464 32%......7%...91%...2%
Other....8,866 8%......23%...65%..12%
DNV.....17,732 16%.....52%...43%...5%
Share..110,825.......50.7% 45.6% 3.7%
Votes..110,825......56,166 50,536 4,123

2000 True Vote Model matched the unadjusted exit polls.

4. 2000 Voter mortality (1.25% annual rate)
Approximately 5 million Election 2000 voters died prior to 2004.
Only 100 million were alive in 2004.

Election 2000 voters ALIVE in 2004:
Bush 47.93
Gore 48.45
Other 3.80
Total 100.19

5. The 2004 Election
There were 122.294 million recorded votes.
Bush won by a bogus 3.0 million vote "mandate".

Bush 62.044 50.73%
Kerry 59.012 48.25%
Other. 1.238 1.01%

6. 2000 Election Voter Turnout in 2004
Estimate 98% of LIVING 2000 Election voters turned out in 2004.
Therefore, the MAXIMUM number of returning 2000 voters was:
Bush 46.97 million (38.41% of 122.3 million 2004 voters)
Gore 47.48 (38.83%)
Other 3.72 (3.04%)
Total 98.18 (80.28%)
DNV 24.11 (19.72% did not vote in 2000)
Total 122.29 100.0%

7. Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (13,660 Respondents)
Kerry won by an equivalent 6 million votes.

Respondents Share...Equiv. vote
Kerry 7,064 51.71% 63.24 million
Bush. 6,414 46.95% 57.42
Other...182. 1.33% 1.63

8. Proof of fraud: IMPOSSIBLE ADJUSTED 2004 National Exit poll
The NEP required 7 million more returning Bush than Gore voters in order to MATCH the recorded vote. It indicated that 52.59 million Bush 2000 voters turned out in 2004 (43% of the vote). But Bush only had 50.46 million votes in 2000. APPROXIMATELY 2 MILLION DIED AND 1 MILLION DID NOT RETURN IN 2004. Therefore there had to be at least 5 MILLION (52.6-47.5) PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS.

An IMPOSSIBLE adjustment had to be made to the National Exit poll in order to MATCH the recorded vote, therefore the RECORDED VOTE must also have been IMPOSSIBLE. THE 2000 and 2004 ELECTIONS WERE STOLEN.
2000 Turnout Mix....Kerry.Bush..Other....Alive..Turnout
DNV. 20,790 17%....54%...44%....2% ------ ------
Gore 45,249 37%....90%...10%....0%.....48,454...93%
Bush 52,586 43%.....9%...91%....0%.....47,933. 110%
Other 3,669 3%.....64%...14%...22%......3,798...97%
Total.122,294.....48.3%..50.7% 1.0%....100,185..94%
Votes............59,031..62,040 1,223

9. Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
Kerry had 51.7% in the Unadjusted National Exit Poll. Given the 12:28am exit poll shares, matching to 51.7% required an implausible 1.4 million more returning Bush than Gore voters. But Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls by 5 million votes.

2000 Turnout Mix.....Kerry...Bush..Other
DNV. 23,116 18.4%....57%.....41%...2%
Gore 48,248 38.4%....91%......8%...1%
Bush 49,670 39.5%....10%.....90%...0%
Other. 4,703 3.7%....64%.....17%...19%
Total 125,737......51.7% 46.8% 1.5%
Cast. 125,737......65,070 58,829 1,838

2004 True Vote Model
10- Kerry won by 10.6 million votes assuming 2000 voters returned in proportion to the unadjusted state exit polls aggregate.

2000 Turnout Mix....Kerry..Bush...Other
DNV. 22,381 17.8%...57%....41%....2%
Gore 52,055 41.4%...91%.....8%....1%
Bush 47,403 37.7%...10%....90%....0%
Other 3,898 3.1%....64%....17%...19%
Total 125,737......53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Cast. 125,737......67,362 56,666 1,709
Recd. 122,294......59,028 62,041 1,224
Diff...3,443.......8,334 -5,375 485

 
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Posted by on September 5, 2015 in 2000 Election, 2004 Election

 

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The 2004 Election “Game” debate

Richard Charnin
Aug. 24, 2015

Look inside the books: Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

2004 Election Fraud: Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
1988-2012 Presidential Elections: The Master Spreadsheet
Cumulative Vote Shares: Indicators of Rigged Elections
A Simple 2004-2008-2012 Exit Poll Simulation Model
Cumulative Vote Share Spreadsheet Reference

The 2004 Election “Game” debate

Today is the 10th anniversary of my banning during the “Game” debate on the Democratic Underground (“DU”). The purpose of the debate was to determine if Bush really did steal the election. In those days I posted as TruthIsAll (TIA).

In 2004-2005, DU was the most popular debating site for analyzing the 2004 exit polls. There were scores of heated debates. Viewing the “Game” thread is instructive in understanding the nature of the debates which fueled the election integrity movement.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=390193&mesg_id=390193

I expressed frustration with the exit poll naysayers who had a myriad of bogus excuses as to why the exit polls were wrong and claimed that Bush did not steal the 2004 election:
Not ONE mathematical scenario, but many theories and hypotheses based on reluctant Bush voters, the Bush Bandwagon effect, lying Gore voters, forgetful Gore voters, bad weather at the exit polls, exuberant Kerry-biased exit pollsters, inexperienced exit pollsters, exit polls not designed to catch fraud, young exit pollsters, early Democratic voters, late Republican voters, inaccurate exit polls, cluster effect, faulty assumptions, High MoEs, massive Fundamental Christian turnout, Bush the War President, conspiracy fraudsters, sore Kerry losers, rabid spreadsheet-wielding liberal bloggers, Democrats weak on defense, Kerry a lousy campaigner, Repubs united, Democrats divided, Bush strong on moral issues, Bush a religious born-again Christian..

This comment by the brilliant poster anaxarchos sums it all up nicely:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=390193&mesg_id=390632

In 2005, unadjusted state and national exit polls were not available. The 12:22am preliminary 2004 National Exit Poll timeline (at 13,047 respondents) showed Kerry leading by 51-48%. But the final adjusted poll (13660 respondents) magically matched Bush’s 51-48% margin. Analysts questioned how vote shares could flip an impossible 3% with just 613 additional respondents. The anomaly was strong evidence that the election was stolen.

Another major red flag was that the adjusted poll indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of the 122.3 million who voted in 2004 were returning Bush 2000 voters. Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million Bush voters died and another 1 million did not return in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 47.5 million returning Bush voters.
There had to be at least 5 million phantom Bush voters.

In order to explain away these anomalies, the naysayers offered a number of arguments:
1) Reluctant Bush exit poll responders
2) Gore voter false recall
3) near zero correlation of 2000 to 2004 vote-swing and the 2004 exit poll red-shift.
All of these arguments were subsequently refuted.

Notes:
In 2006, Mark Lindeman wrote “A TruthIsAll FAQ” in which he responded to questions on my analysis. This was my response: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/07/14/361/

These posts were written in 2012 after the 1988-2008 state and national unadjusted exit polls became available. The data was utilized in the True Vote Model.

2004 unadjusted state and national exit polls vs. the recorded vote
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&gid=7

Exit Polls- adjusted to force a match to the recorded vote https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/01/07/1395/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

True Vote Models- a powerful sensitivity analysis tool
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/02/07/using-true-vote-model-sensitivity-analysis-to-prove-that-kerry-won-the-2004-election/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/01/08/a-true-vote-probability-analysis-of-a-kerry-win-in-ohio/
2004 Pre-election and Exit Poll Simulation Model

Election Myths
The Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll: Closing the Book on the False Recall Myth
Vote Swing vs. Exit Poll Red-Shift: Killing the “Zero slope means No Election Fraud” Canard
Exposing Election Myths: Facts and Graphs

Media Complicity- covering up the Fraud
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/11/22/why-do-all-election-forecasters-political-scientists-academics-and-media-pundits-avoid-the-systemic-fraud-factor/

 
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Posted by on August 24, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

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The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 19, 2014
Updated Sept.30, 2015

My Website: Election Fraud and JFK
Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

This question has proven to be devastating for those who still believe there is no such thing as election fraud. So devastating, it was not asked in the 2012 presidential exit poll or the 2014 House exit poll.

The exit pollsters freely admit that they adjust the polls to match the recorded vote. The rationale is that since the exit polls are always off by an 8% average margin, they must be adjusted to match the pristine, fraud-free recorded vote. The pollsters never consider the possibility that the unadjusted exit polls were accurate; they claim that the discrepancies are due to consistently bad polling.

So why do the pollsters get paid the big bucks from the National Election Pool? In any other profession, if your analysis is way off, you had better get it right the next time. If it’s way off on your second try, you get one more chance. If you fail a third time, that’s it. Someone else gets your job. But here’s the catch: the pollsters were accurate; the unadjusted polls matched the True Vote. So why did they have to adjust the polls to match the bogus recorded vote?

The unadjusted exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote in every presidential election since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national exit polls by 52-42%, but won the the recorded vote by just 48-46%. The probability of the discrepancy: 1 in trillions. The exit polls were right. The vote counts were wrong. It’s as simple as that.

Does the rationale sound crazy to you? Despite all of the anecdotal evidence of election fraud, it is never considered by the corporate media (the National Election Pool) who fund the exit pollsters.

This graph shows that in the 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, the National Exit Poll was forced to claim there was over 100% turnout of living Nixon, Bush1 and Bush2 voters from the prior election. Impossible – and proof of fraud.

I have been posting on this very unscientific procedure since 2004. In this post I will review the basic method used to match the vote: changing the mix of returning voters. We will look at the 2004-2008 presidential elections and the 2010-2014 Wisconsin and Florida governor elections. The pattern of deceit will be revealed by adjustments made to the number of exit poll respondents and returning voters to match the official recorded vote counts – and cover up the fraud.

2004 Presidential
There were 13,660 National Exit Poll respondents and 51.7% said they voted for Kerry. But Bush won the recorded vote by 50.8-48.3%. So the pollsters had to switch 6.7% of Kerry respondents to Bush.

Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and another million did not return in 2004. Therefore, there were at most 47.5 million returning Bush 2000 voters. The National Exit poll indicated that 52.6 million Bush 2000 voters returned in 2004. The pollsters had to create at least 5 million phantom Bush voters. Of course, this made no sense. But who questioned it? Who even knew about it? https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

2008 Presidential
There were 17,836 National Exit Poll respondents. Obama had 61% in the unadjusted poll but just 53% in the vote count. The adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 46% of 2008 voters (60 million) were returning Bush 2004 voters and 37% (48 million) returning Kerry voters.This was impossible; it implied a 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters. Bush won the recorded vote by 3 million. But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 6 million and the True vote by nearly 10 million. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

2010 Florida Governor
Scott defeated Sink with 50.59% of the 2-party vote. But Sink easily won the unadjusted exit poll by 50.8-45.4% (3150 respondents, 2% margin of error). In order to match the recorded vote, the adjusted exit poll indicated a 47/47% split in returning Obama and McCain voters, 3% were new and 3% returning 3rd party (other) -but vote shares were NA for new and other voters. In order to match the recorded vote, Scott needed 67% of the 6% NA. This is implausible. Based on the unadjusted exit poll, Sink had 57% of this group.

2014 Florida Governor
Scott had 50.58% of the 2-party vote, within .01% of his 2010 share. Just a coincidence? The question How Did You Vote in 2010? was not asked, so let’s look at the Florida exit poll Party-ID demographic. There were 11.9 million registered voters. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 500,000 (38.8% Dem; 35.0% Rep; 26.2% Other). But in matching the recorded vote, the Party-ID split was 31D-35R-33I. Assuming that the True split was equal to the actual voter registration mix, Crist is the winner by 50.9-44.6%. Crist had stronger support among Democrats (91%) than Scott had among Republicans (88%). He won Independents by 46-44%. So how did he lose?

Florida Gov 2014 Exit Poll (matched recorded vote)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat........31% 91% 6% 3%
Republican......35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent.....33% 46% 44% 8%
Total...........99% 46.9% 47.2% 4.3%
Votes..........5.88 2.78 2.80 0.25

Florida Gov 2014 Exit Poll (Registration Mix)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat.......39% 91% 6% 3%
Republican.....35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent....26% 46% 44% 10%
Total..........100% 50.9% 44.6% 4.5%
Votes......... 5.94 3.03 2.65 0.265

2012 Wisconsin Walker Recall
In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin with a 56.2% recorded share. He had 63.3% in the unadjusted exit poll, far beyond the 2.5% margin of error. The exit poll is strong evidence that election fraud sharply reduced Obama’s True Vote.

In 2010, Walker won by 124,638 votes with a 52.3% share. in 2012, he won the recall by 171,105 votes with 53.1%. But the True Vote Model (TVM) showed that he needed 23% of Obama returning voters to match the recorded vote. That is extremely implausible – and a red flag. It’s further evidence that Barrett won the election. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/07/11/the-walker-recall-true-vote-model-implausible-vote-shares-required-to-match-the-vote/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=t4pqdOMFhfNwaIq8ELOAg_w#gid=32

2014 Wisconsin Governor
Walker won with a 52.9% share. In order to match the recorded vote, the adjusted exit poll showed that returning 2012 Barrett voters comprised 35% of 2014 voters compared to 50% for returning Walker voters. The 15% spread is implausible. Compare it to Walker’s 7% recorded 2012 margin and Barrett’s estimated 6% True Vote margin (a whopping 21% discrepancy).Assuming a feasible Barrett 45/Walker 41% returning voter mix, Burke is the winner by 52.3-47.3%.

In the “How Voted in 2012” crosstab, vote shares are missing for Other (3%) and New Voters (DNV 11%). How many of the missing 14% voted for Burke? https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oAq0CJ1QSfy4JaNYpM_5esTafUdpt3ipgJU0Iz8RlD0/edit#gid=2079407084

An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

 

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Nate Silver and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

Once again, Nate Silver misdirects his readers in reviewing the 2014 elections. He claims that the polls were biased to the Democrats. He never considers that the polls were close to the true vote but that the vote counts were rigged. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

Nate Silver never discusses Election Fraud, even though it has been proven systemic. I pointed this a few years ago in a reply to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. His knowledge of exit polls was (and apparently still is) non-existent. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

As usual Nate cites polling “bias”. But not a word about the fact that early pre-election polls include all registered voters (RVs). As we move toward Election Day, the polls are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

The true bias is that pollsters skew the projections in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. Nate Silver never considers that the RV polls are usually close to the truth – but that the LV polls are biased against the Democrats. So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. He believes the official vote counts are accurate, but researchers who analyze the historical record see a consistent 4-5% “red shift” to the GOP. It is absolute proof that the recorded vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans. http://electiondefensealliance.org/?q=voter_cutoff_model

Nate never discusses the fact that exit polls are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. The pollsters admit that it is standard operating procedure. Their rationale is that the polls must always be wrong since they deviate so greatly from the recorded vote. Of course we never get to see the unadjusted exit polls until years later, if then. The 1988-2008 unadjusted presidential state and national exit polls showed that the Democrats won by an average of 52-42%. But the recorded vote had them winning by just 48-46%
I just posted the True Vote model for the Wisconsin and Florida governor races. Both races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

In the 2010 Florida Governor election, the unadjusted exit poll and the True Vote Model indicated that Sink won by 5%, yet Scott won the recorded vote by 1%. In 2014, Scott won again. The 2-party vote shares were identical! Scott had 50.59% in 2010 and 50.58% in 2014! A coincidence? Hardly.The Florida 2014 Exit Poll indicates a 31-35-33 Dem-Rep-Ind split (over-weighted for Republicans) with 91% of Dems voting for Crist, 88% of Repubs voting for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. When we change the split to a more plausible 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

In the 2014 Wisconsin Governor election, a True Vote analysis indicates that Walker stole the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

The easiest way to understand that our elections are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. According to the adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (as posted on major media sites), there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 2004 electorate) and 37% returning Gore voters. Recall that Gore won the popular vote by 540,000. Gore won the unadjusted exit polls by 50-45% (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

But Bush had only 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and one million did not return. Therefore, there were at least 5 million (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. The exit pollsters had to adjust the unadjusted, pristine National Exit poll which showed Kerry a 52-47% winner to make Bush a 51-48% winner. Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters to match the recorded vote. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

And finally, here is the ultimate proof of systemic election fraud. In the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the polls by 52-42%, exactly matching my True Vote Model. But they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. Of the 274 exit polls 135 exceeded the margin of error, 131 in favor of the Republican. The probability P of that discrepancy is E-116 or
P= 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Take anything from Nate Silver with a BIG GRAIN OF SALT. He never mentions PROVEN ELECTION FRAUD . And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster Zogby dead last in his evaluation of pollsters a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

I have written several open-letter posts for Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2) http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/TwentySilver.htm
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/
5. Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings http://richardcharnin.com/SilverRankings.htm

The bottom line: Nate works for the major corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. They will never plead guilty.

This is a summary of my track record in forecasting the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 
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Posted by on November 17, 2014 in Election Myths, Media, Rebuttals

 

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2014 Election : Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Richard Charnin
Nov.8, 2014

2014 Election: Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The analysis of 1988-2014 election anomalies has been proven beyond any doubt that Election Fraud is systemic. If the Democrats or the Republicans were interested in fair elections, election fraud would have been eliminated long ago.  This is apparent based on the historic overview and analysis of election fraud.

In 2012,  the National Election Pool (NEP)  came to realize that unadjusted polls were a clear indicator of fraud  so they just stopped polling in 19 states. And we only have  adjusted state and national exit polls, so that the ability to prove election fraud based on unadjusted exit polls and true vote analysis is reduced.

It’s not just the exit polls that are manipulated. Pre-election Registered Voter (RV) polls are reduced to a Likely Voter (LV) subset, eliminating many new, mostly Democratic voters, as noted by  Jonathan Simon: Vote Counts and Polls: An Insidious Feedback Loop

The pattern is repeated in every election cycle:  a) Registered Voter (RV) pre-election polls  are reduced to a Likely Voter (LV) subset (eliminate many new Democratic voters) and b) unadjusted exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote (4-5% red-shift to GOP).

In 2014, the Republicans won the House recorded vote by 52.3-46.6%. According to the final, adjusted National Exit poll, they won by 51.9-46.1%. The .01% difference in margin was not due to perfect polling of a fraud-free election. It was due to the standard procedure of matching the exit poll to a fraudulent recorded vote.

Final vote shares were calculated for all 2014 National Exit Poll categories. But the actual exit poll responses are adjusted to match the recorded vote. UNADJUSTED STATE AND NATIONAL EXIT POLLS ARE ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE. But we never get to see the unadjusted polls until years later, if then.

Therefore, voters must demand to view the unadjusted exit polls (including polled precincts).  To paraphrase Alec Baldwin in Glengary Glen Ross: The unadjusted national exit polls are gold, but you don’t get them. They’re for closers (the corporate media).

2014 National House Exit Poll

Gender...Mix...Dem... Rep..Other Margin
Men......49.0% 41.0% 57.0% 2.0% 16.0%
Women....51.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Total..........46.1% 51.9% 2.0% 5.8%
Recorded.......46.6% 52.3% 1.1% 5.7%
Diff............0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%


The unadjusted national exit polls and the aggregate of state exit polls (adjusted only for state voting population) have closely matched the True Vote Model in all presidential elections since 1988. The True Vote Model has the Democratic margin at 53-41%; the unadjusted state and national exit polls are identical: 52-42%.

The Democrats won the 1988-2008 recorded vote by just 2% (48-46%). There is a consistent 8% exit poll margin discrepancy from the recorded vote. But we don’t have the unadjusted 2014 National Exit Poll. Based on 1988-2008 margins, 2014 would be expected to show a 50-48% unadjusted (true) Democratic margin- and eliminate the 4% red shift to the GOP.

 

This is an excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on November 8, 2014 in 2014 Elections, Election Myths

 

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Sensitivity Analysis proves a JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud

Sensitivity Analysis proves a JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
August 2, 2013
Updated: Aug. 5, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

It’s all in the numbers. In both cases, we have a series of observations. The 122 JFK witness deaths (78 ruled unnatural) are from 1964-78; the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls are from the six elections in 1988-2008. There are numerous data anomalies in the accumulated totals in both.

The problems are similar. In the Election Fraud analysis, we need to determine the number of state exit polls which fell outside the margin of error for each candidate. We would expect a near equal split. In the JFK analysis, we need to compare the number of unnatural witness deaths to what would normally be expected based on unnatural mortality rates, given the number of JFK-related witnesses.

We assume the Null Hypothesis: No JFK Conspiracy; No substantive Election Fraud. The first step is to record witness and mortality rate data in a spreadsheet. A mathematical analysis determines if the observations are reasonable based on statistical expectation. If the resulting probabilities go to zero, we reject the null hypothesis; we have proved systemic election fraud and a JFK conspiracy.

The data parameters are limited in scope.
– JFK: witness universe, unnatural deaths, time period, mortality rate
– Election Fraud: state elections, exit polls, recorded shares, margin of error

In both studies, we seek to determine the probabilities based on the number of…
– JFK: unnatural deaths vs. expected number based on mortality statistics.
– Election Fraud: exit polls exceeding the margin of error vs. expected number.

I posted the following analysis on John McAdams’ JFK assassination site. His response was typical disinformation; he wrote that I am reluctant to have the analysis peer-reviewed. But no one has ever come forth to refute the election fraud or JFK analysis. The work has been available on spreadsheets to everyone with Internet access for years. It has been cited in Hit List by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, Crossfire by Jim Marrs and Presidential Puppetry by Andrew Kreig.

McAdams is apparently incapable of doing a peer-review himself. I suggested that he ask the math or political science professors at Marquette University but he has not done so. https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups=#!topic/alt.assassination.jfk/gy1LY3aTm60

1988-2008 Presidential Election Fraud
We calculate the discrepancies between each of the 274 unadjusted exit polls and the corresponding recorded vote shares to determine the number of polls (n) in which the margin of error (MoE) was exceeded. We then calculate the probability.

The MoE is a function of the number of exit poll respondents plus an additional 30% cluster factor. For example, the calculated 2.50% MoE and a 30% (0.75) cluster factor results in a 3.25% MoE.

In the six presidential elections from 1988-2008, the MoE was exceeded in 135 of the 274 exit polls, 131 moving in favor of the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. At the 95% confidence level, we would expect that the MoE would be exceeded in 14 polls.

The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in 131 of 274 exit polls in favor of the GOP is a ridiculous E-116 (116 zeros to the right of the decimal point). That is a big fat ZERO. But what if the cluster factor is higher than 30%? It would increase the MoE; therefore, the number of polls in which the MoE was exceeded would be lower.

In the sensitivity analysis, we calculate probabilities for cluster factors ranging from 0-100%. The most likely base case is the 30% cluster factor (a total 3.60% average MoE). The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of the 274 elections. The probability P= E-83 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

Even assuming an impossible 200% cluster factor, the resulting 8.31% MoE was exceeded in 29 elections – a 1 in 10,000 probability. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=43

If the six elections were fair, we would expect the MoE to be exceeded in approximately 14 of 274 exit polls. The margin of error scenarios all show that the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote were overwhelmingly one-sided in favor of the GOP. The probabilities of the red-shift were ZERO in all scenarios. Therefore we can conclude that Election Fraud is systemic beyond any doubt.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive simulaton analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis. I created an exit poll response optimization model which confirmed the USCV simuation: http://www.richardcharnin.com/ExitPollResponseOptimization.htm

JFK Assassination Witnesses

There has been an ongoing controversy over the number of witnesses who died mysteriously ever since the actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 TRILLION to 1 odds that 18 material witnesses would die in the three years following the assassination. The HSCA claimed that the “universe” of material witnesses was unknowable, therefore the calculation was invalid and was not proof of a conspiracy. But an approximate number (1400+) was knowable.

Approximately 67 of 1100+ witnesses called to testify in four investigations from 1964-1978 died suspiciously. Of the 552 who testified at the Warren Commission in 1964, at least 30 died suspiciously (20 unnaturally). In three investigations (Garrison/Shaw trial, Church, HSCA) approximately 600 witnesses were called to testify; 37 died suspiciously. Most of the deaths occurred just before their scheduled testimony.

We have a finite universe of witnesses, the number and cause of unnatural deaths, and the unnatural mortality rates. Given this input, we can calculate the expected number of deaths and compare it to the actual number. This is analogous to the actual and expected numbers of exit polls exceeding the margin of error.

Here are the graphs and probability calculations which prove a conspiracy: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

This is a sensitivity analysis of unnatural witness deaths.
We calculate a probability matrix of unnatural deaths over a range of material witnesses and number of deaths. We can then analyze the effects of these two key factors on the probability. As the number of witnesses (N) increase for a given number (n) of deaths, so does the probability that n deaths will occur. Conversely, as the number of unnatural witness deaths (n) increase for a given number (N) of witnesses, the probabilities will decrease.

There were at least 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths of 1400+ material witnesses over the 15 year period from 1964-78: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown causes. The probability is E-62 assuming the average weighted JFK unnatural mortality rate (0.000247). It is E-41 assuming the average unweighted national unnatural rate (0.000822). But many suicides and accidents were actually homicides (the number of official unnatural deaths far exceeded the statistical expectation).

The sensitivity analysis table of unnatural deaths and corresponding matrix for homicides shows that the probability of unnatural deaths is ZERO in all plausible combination scenarios.

There are some who claim there were many more than 1400 witnesses. But other than the 1400 listed in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination, there is no comparable list of material witnesses. The FBI claimed 25,000 persons were interviewed. But how many were material witnesses who had information related to the assassination? Even assuming 25,000 witnesses, the probability of 84 homicides in 15 years is 1 in 100 trillion.

Average 1964-78 Homicide rate: 0.000084
Sensitivity Analysis: Probability of 80 Homicides for N witnesses (1964-78)
N….Probability

1400 1.68E-100
2000 1.94E-88

3000 6.70E-75
3500 8.07E-70
4000 1.87E-65
4500 1.23E-61
5000 2.99E-58

5500 3.25E-55
6000 1.82E-52
6500 5.85E-50
7000 1.17E-47
7500 1.55E-45

8000 1.44E-43
10000 6.48E-37
15000 1.42E-25
20000 2.52E-18
25000 4.17E-13 (1 in 2,396,168,995,675)

 
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Posted by on August 2, 2013 in Election Myths, JFK

 

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