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Six 2014 Governor Elections: Cumulative Vote Shares Indicate Fraud

Six 2014 Governor Elections: Cumulative Vote Shares Indicate Fraud

Richard Charnin
Dec.4, 2015
Update: Dec.7

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

View this summary spreadsheet analysis  of recent Governor elections in KY, MA, MD, IL, FL, WI . Using Cumulative Vote Shares, the focus is on the largest counties in which the change in vote share anomalies indicated fraud. The True Vote  is estimated  as the sum of the 10% cumulative precinct votes in TOP counties and the final votes in Other counties.

….. True 10% CVS….. Final Share
Group Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other
TOP… 57.3 39.6  3.1…. 50.7 46.6 3.1
Other. 40.1 56.3 3.5 …. 40.1 56.3 3.5
Total…51.1 45.6 3.2 …. 46.9 50.1 3.0

In prior CVS analyses,  changes in cumulative vote shares in the six states were calculated from the 25%  mark to the final in ALL counties. The  average 40.7% Democratic  share  in the Other small, strongly Republican  counties declined to 37.8%.

We compare the cumulative vote shares of the TOP counties of each state at the 10% mark to the final result. The 10% mark is a reasonable estimate of the true vote as it encompasses a sufficiently large number of votes in the TOP counties such that the cumulative shares will have reached a “steady state”. We would expect little or no divergence in the trend lines from the 10% mark. But the sharp divergence favoring the GOP from the 10% mark to the final is counter-intuitive and violates the Law of Large Numbers (LLN).

10% Dem GOP Final Dem GOP
KY.. 48.2-47.7; 43.8-52.5
IL… 53.7-43.2;  46.4-50.3
FL… 50.2-46.0; 47.6-48.6
WI.. 50.5-48.2;  46.7-52.2
MD. 49.7-48.6;  47.2-51.0
MA.. 54.0-40.8; 47.4-49.3

Note the following Democratic share declines from the 10% mark in the largest counties:
KY – 15 of 15 counties (8.2% decline)
MA – 11 of 14 townships (7.7%)
MD – 10 of 10 (3.8%)
IL – 13 of 15 (9.5%)
FL – 9 of 10 (4.8%)
WI – 10 of 15 (5.8%)

The probability P that 68 of 79 Top counties would move from the Democrat to the GOP is equivalent to the probability of flipping a coin 79 times and getting 68 heads. 
 P= 6.9E-13 or 1 in 1.4 trillion

This spreadsheet contains a complete index of links to  CVS blog posts and spreadsheets as well as related CVS/True Vote analysis for all elections.

 

 

 

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Posted by on December 4, 2015 in 2014 Elections, Uncategorized

 

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Election Fraud Models: Cumulative Vote Shares and True Vote Analysis

Election Fraud Models: Cumulative Vote Shares and True Vote Analysis

Richard Charnin
Aug. 2, 2015
WEB SITE

CVS and TVM analysis is confirmed by the following studies:
– A statistical study of precinct level data in US presidential elections reveals a correlation of large precincts and increased fraction of Republican votes.
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1410.8868.pdf

– Wichita State University engineering professor and statistician Beth Clarkson has accused three states — Wisconsin, Ohio, & Kansas — of voting irregularities that indicate a tampering of electronic voting machines. In her recently published journal article, she reviews the statistical anomalies in the three states — including laying out her entire mathematical methodology, inviting others to replicate the study. Clarkson has filed suit trying to gain full access to the ballots for an independent audit of the paper ‘hard copies.’

Illinois Gov: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/07/31/2014-illinois-governor-cumulative-vote-shares-and-exit-poll-anomalies/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v6xm1XWdTYSEt5eXK1AegOY9iLx1ufseWVRzxQsz6N4/edit#gid=1895227029

Florida Gov
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/02/11/2014-florida-governor-election-fraud-cumulative-precinct-vote-shares/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnErWihwCvq5puGw3sBF9E4jr585XV2NChqvxGObLAU/edit#gid=1124172858

South Dakota
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/01/02/south-dakota-2014-cumulative-vote-share-analysis/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11pw_YbGe9iidkziW1R8sks5HpseapEGpABD0l2Twebw/edit#gid=1519263458
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11pw_YbGe9iidkziW1R8sks5HpseapEGpABD0l2Twebw/edit#gid=1325075119

Maryland Governor
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/02/27/proving-election-fraud-cumulative-vote-share-analysis/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17SpMcLyJ0607RyasTG4tRqrFmyDEKmEG45DKGGLZFmA/edit?usp=sheets_home

Kansas Senate
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/04/02/12370/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D087y0AlsFiITeypDEk3W_c4P-O2iytQRCp85wFIw-Q/edit#gid=1367668624

Five Wisconsin Elections:a pattern of county unit ward vote share anomalies
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/12/20/four-wisconsin-elections-a-pattern-of-county-unitward-vote-share-anomalies/

Wisconsin 2014 Gov
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdEhqXzdlbUhZT1Vic3RSQmU2cUVkc3c#gid=9

Wisconsin 2012 Walker Recall
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/12/09/walker-recall-county-cumulative-vote-trend-by-ward-group/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdF95dGdleVBSYkdISmplWVZXdXlQQ0E#gid=1

Wisconsin 2010 Senate
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/07/23/wisconsin-2010-senate-true-vote-model-and-cumulative-vote-shares-indicate-feingold-won/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tXw5LpgQrZjn_YFOkLoLqtQhIAco_V9EEApXvva58kE/edit

Wisconsin 2011 Supreme Court
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/09/04/2011-wi-supreme-court-cumulative-vote-shares-confirm-the-stolen-election/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/06/28/2011-wisconsin-supreme-court-true-vote-analysis/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGUySGVQOW5BQWxZYWJ1TDJaVXJtNnc&hl=en_US#gid=2
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ziSkkHnYz-bVvAfHd_VciBBEUKQqFafJJjico4WbwTE/edit#gid=1966172904
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12Vh_qbPI3v0Zf2F5UoCXioC0Ve1ZFNbUDtMuhav865M/pubchart?oid=1350194917&format=interactive

Presidential Elections
Historical Overview and Analysis of Election Fraud
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/01/31/historical-overview-of-election-fraud-analysis/

2000 Florida: Duval County
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eiVf34eX9LSptAXZ-EvgCmW88JRjLu8Z5Bxfleg_RgQ/pubchart?oid=1722819743&format=interactive

2004 Ohio: Lucas County
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zcUZQ49a5fAmx2fomZ_xcCp2vDbCIitNKyfoQnVQKao/pubchart?oid=1403163968&format=interactive

2008 Wisconsin presidential
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ReruOWQ_DgUZFHAN6y0xFO6A25B2RtTsVxY3WyOMOoQ/edit#gid=0

2012 GOP primaries
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/26/1150485/-Retired-NSA-Analyst-Proves-GOP-Is-Stealing-Elections#

 
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Posted by on August 2, 2015 in 2014 Elections

 

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Maryland 2014 Gov Election Fraud? Cumulative Vote shares, Early, Election Day and Late Vote Anomalies

Maryland 2014 Gov Election Fraud? Cumulative Vote shares, Early, Election Day and Late Vote Anomalies

Richard Charnin
Feb.27, 2015
Updated: Jan. 18, 2016

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes, and the National Exit Poll

Cumulative Vote Share (CVS) analysis is a recent addition to the toolkit of models for analyzing election fraud. Vote shares in smaller GOP rural precincts heavily favor the Republican, but there is a counter-intuitive upward trend in Republican cumulative vote shares in larger (presumably urban Democratic) precincts. One would intuitively expect a slight Democratic increase in slope.

In the Maryland 2014 Governor election, Hogan (R) defeated Brown (D) by 65,000 votes (51.7-47.2%). But Brown won 301,000 early and 83,000 late votes (absentee and provisional ballots) by 53.9-44.5%. Hogan led Election Day (1,319,000 votes) by 52.9-45.3%. Election Day voting is on machines; early and late votes use paper ballots.

At the 10% mark, Brown had 62.8 in the ten largest counties (declining to 55.1%) and 29.4% in the other 14 (an increase from 25.2%), confirming that the GOP does not focus on stealing votes in small, rural, heavily GOP counties.

The CVS trend moved to the GOP in each of the following elections
-Florida: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/02/11/2014-florida-governor-election-fraud-cumulative-precinct-vote-shares/
-Wisconsin: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/12/02/11623/
-South Dakota: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/01/02/south-dakota-2014-cumulative-vote-share-analysis/

Calculating cumulative vote shares (CVS):
1- County precinct votes are sorted in ascending order.
2- The total vote in each precinct is added to the cumulative total.
3- Cumulative vote shares are calculated.
4- Cumulative vote shares (Y) and total votes (X) are displayed graphically.

A PhD study confirms the Cumulative Vote Share analysis:
Precinct Size Matters:­The Large Precinct Bias in US Presidential Elections- G.F.Webb (Vanderbilt University, Nashville,TN) Examination of precinct level data in US presidential elections reveals a correlation of large precincts and increased fraction of Republican votes.The large precinct bias is analyzed with respect to voter heterogeneity and voter inconvenience as precinct size increases. The analysis shows that voter inconvenience is a significant factor in election outcomes in certain states, and may significantly disadvantage Democratic candidates.
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1410.8868.pdf

CVS confirms the results of other major election fraud indicators:
1) True Vote Model (TVM): Based on plausible returning voters and current election exit poll vote shares. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/19/the-exit-poll-smoking-gun-how-did-you-vote-in-the-last-election/

2) State and National Exit Polls: Discrepancies beyond the margin of error between unadjusted exit polls and the recorded vote. All exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. It is standard procedure. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Cumulative vote shares of selected Maryland counties:








 
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Posted by on February 27, 2015 in 2014 Elections

 

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