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Election Fraud: The 2016 Democratic Primaries

Richard Charnin
4/13/2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS (Note: 2/2/2017 view all DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY posts)

Bernie Sanders is leading 50.4-49.6% based on the unweighted average of all 34 caucuses and primaries. Let’s accept the reasonable premise that the primaries have been fraudulent and Sanders won in MO, MA, AZ, OH,IL, IA, and NV.  Electoral votes are directly proportional to state voting population.  Clinton has won 11 RED states with 160 EV. Sanders won the other 23 states with 188 EV. Vote the tables below were created by Ted Soraes

Based on late exit polls (which had yet to be adjusted to match the recorded vote), Sanders is leading by an unweighted 52.4-47.0%.  The lead must be even greater since votes were stolen from Bernie in the RED states. Proof? Check the average 8.7% exit poll margin discrepancy from the recorded votes in the Democratic Primaries spread sheet.

Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in n= 17 of N= 18 primaries. The probability P=0.000072 or 1 in 13,797. The spreadsheet function is P= 1-BINOMDIST(n-1,N,0.5,true). There is a 99.9% probability that this anomaly was not due to chance and must have been the result of election fraud.

Wyoming

Bernie was a 56-44% winner in the caucus, yet Hillary won 11 of 18 delegates!  In 12 counties, 54% of Clinton’s votes were surrogates (mail-in), representing 74% of the delegates. Just 27% of Sander’s votes were surrogates. Contrast this to  the Nebraska caucus, where 20% of Clinton’s votes were mail-in.

From CNN: “A Clinton campaign aide said their ‘secret sauce’ in Wyoming was the state’s onerous vote-by-mail rules that required anyone voting by mail to have voted as a Democrat in the 2014 midterms.”  But there is no evidence of such a rule.  The aide was not named.

Wisconsin

Bernie Sanders had 563,127 votes (56.5%) and Hillary Clinton 429.738 (43.1%). But the early exit poll indicates that Bernie most likely  did even better.  At 4pm, the exit poll indicated that Sanders had 68% of white vote.  Whites comprise 88% of  WI voters. Assuming Sanders had just 40% of the non-white vote, he won the election by an estimated 64.6-35.4% (2-party).

The final adjusted exit poll was forced to match the recorded vote. It indicates that whites comprised just 83% of the vote and Sanders had just 59% of them. Blacks  comprised 10% – and Sanders had just 31% . These numbers are not  plausible. A pre-election poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP)  indicated that Sanders was  winning black voters by 51-40%.

The exit poll shows that 7% of voters were Latino (3%), Asian (2%), Other (2%). According to the pollsters,  the vote shares are NA. How is that? Was it because their respective turnout rates were too low? The pollsters could have combined the 7% as Other Non-whites. Without this information, we cannot calculate the total recorded vote shares. The abbreviated totals have Sanders winning by 52.1-40.1%. The 12% margin is close to the official recorded margin.

Arizona

Arizona is the latest poster child of election fraud,  along with Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004. Sanders won Utah (a bordering state) and Idaho primaries with nearly 80% of the vote. But he lost in Arizona by 60-38%. Who believes it?

The  National Exit Pool (NEP) of six major media conglomerates funds exit pollster Edison Research. The NEP decided not to poll AZ.  It’s as if they knew they would have to match the unadjusted poll to a bogus recorded vote; the massive discrepancies would be too obvious. But  the networks called it for Hillary  with less than 1% of the votes in. How did they know this if they did not exit poll? Luckily the Yavapai County Daily Courier did an exit poll – and Bernie led by 63-37%. Hillary won  the county by 54-43%- an impossible 37% difference in margin. But the evidence of fraud goes  much further than this one poll.

Of the 15 Arizona counties, Maricopa (Phoenix) is by far the largest with nearly 60% of the vote. Pima County (Tucson)  is second with 16%. In the 2008 primary, Maricopa voter turnout was  54.3%. In the other 14 counties, there was a 47.2% turnout. In 2016, 13  counties had higher voter turnout rates than in 2008. The 4.1% decline (17,000 votes) in Maricopa 2016 turnout (50.2%) from 2008 is counter-intuitive. Voter  turnout in the other 14 AZ counties increased by 8.8% to 56.0%.

Based on the overall trend, Maricopa should have had an approximate 63.1% turnout. It is  a powerful indicator of  voter suppression. The  probability of the 12.9% difference  (160,000 votes) between Maricopa’s projected 62.1% voter turnout and the actual 50.2% turnout  is approximately  1 in  90 trillion.

The  probability of the  5.8% difference in voter turnout  between 14 AZ counties (56.0%) and Maricopa (50.2%) is approximately 1 in 13,000).

Super Tuesday

In the five unadjusted exit polls there were 7,220 respondents. Clinton led by 53.2-44.7%. In the final adjusted polls , there were 7979 respondents (759 additional). She led the final adjusted polls (which were matched to the recorded vote) by 55.6-42.4%. Clinton had 586 (77.2%) of the FINAL 759 respondents, or 21.9% above her unadjusted share. Sanders had 20% (24.7% below his unadjusted share).

Inline image

DATA SOURCES
The table was created by Theodore de Macedo Soares (tedsoares@yahoo.com)
CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.
The NY Times is the source of the reported vote counts.

Michigan

Sanders did much better than his recorded vote in the Michigan primary.  Sanders had 590,386  votes (49.8%) and Clinton 570,948 (48.3%).   Sanders won in 73 of 83  MI counties with 56% of the vote. He won the preliminary exit poll by 52.1-45.9%, a 97% win probability. Clinton won urban counties Wayne and Oakland  with approximately 55% of the vote.

Once again, we have multiple confirmation indicating fraud: Cumulative vote shares, preliminary exit poll, absentee vote anomalies and other anecdotal information.

Cumulative Vote Shares  are a likely indicator of fraud. The lines should be nearly parallel, but invariably, vote shares rise for establishment candidates in urban Democratic counties. It should be conventional wisdom by now: in state elections, fraud abounds in heavily populated urban and suburban locations. Of course, the media never talks about it. They report the recorded numbers as if there was not a fraud factor. 

In the CVS analysis, Sanders had approximately 56% at the 600,000 mark. Notice the abrupt change to straight lines at the 600,000 vote mark. They represent the largest counties (Wayne and Oakland) which used ES&S optical scanners exclusively. 

Sanders had   54% of approximately 500,000 votes cast on AccuVote and Sequoia  voting machines. Clinton had  75% of approximately 240,000 absentee votes and  51.2% of approximately 700,000 votes cast on ES&S Mod 100 machines. The percentages are highly suspect.

Sanders’ county vote shares  were negatively correlated to machine types. The ES&S Model 100 correlation was  -0.68. The bigger the county the lower Sanders’ vote share. Wayne and Oakland counties used ES&S Model 100 optical scanners. Macomb used both ES&S and Premier/Diebold/Dominion AccuVote optical scanners.

 Massachusetts

Late changes to the exit poll indicate that the election was likely stolen.  Sanders  led the Unadjusted Exit Poll Gender crosstab  (1297 respondents) by 52.3-45.7% a 97% win probability.. The poll was captured from CNN at 8:01pm.

But as always, the exit poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote. Clinton led the adjusted exit poll (1406 respondents) by 50.3-48.7%,  a near-exact match to the  RECORDED vote margin.  But her 50.3% share was IMPOSSIBLE.  The proof is self-explanatory: How could Clinton gain  114 respondents and Sanders just 7 among the final 109 exit poll respondents?

Clinton won  by 51-49% on electronic voting machines from ES&S, Diebold and Dominion. Sanders won 68  hand-counted precincts by 58-41% (32,360 votes, 2.7% of votes cast).  He won 250 of  351 jurisdictions and had at least 58% in 110. 

There is a 97%  probability  that Sanders won the election given the 3.55% Margin of Error. The MoE includes the exit poll cluster effect  (30% of the 2.72% calculated MoE). Sanders 53.4% two-party share and the MoE are input to the Normal distribution function to calculate his win probability.

DATA SOURCES
The table below was created by Theodore de Macedo Soares (tedsoares@yahoo.com)
CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.
The NY Times is the source of the reported vote counts.

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll (E-book)
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

Election Fraud Overview

 

 
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Posted by on April 13, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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The 2016 Democratic Primary Quiz

The 2016 Democratic Primary Quiz

Richard Charnin
Updated Aug.8, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

Data and calculations used in this quiz are from the Democratic Primaries Spreadsheet  which is linked from my blog posts in the 2016 election category.

      1. Iowa caucus: Clinton won how many consecutive coin flips?  a) 6, b)8, c)10
      2. Iowa caucus: Clinton won the entrance poll by 50.1-49.9%. The Party-ID split was 76% Dem-24% Ind. But applying the Gallup survey 30% Dem-70% Ind split, Sanders has a) 56%, b) 60%, c) 64%.
      3.  Massachusetts: Clinton won 50.3-48.7%.  But Sanders won the exit poll by 52.1-45.7%. He won in locations using hand counted paper ballots with  a) 54%, b) 55%, c) 58%.
      4. Illinois: Clinton won 50.9-49.1%. But Sanders won the unadjusted exit poll with a) 50.8%, b) 51.0%, c) 51.2%.
      5.  Michigan exit poll: Bernie had a) 50%, b) 51%,c) 52% of the vote.
      6. Missouri: Bernie had 49.9% of the two-party vote and a) 50.9%, b) 51.9%, c) 52.9%% in the unadjusted exit poll.
      7. Ohio: Hillary had 56.9% of the vote and 51.9% in the unadjusted exit poll. The probability of the discrepancy is  a) 0.1%, b) 0.5%, c) 1.0%. 
      8. Georgia: Hillary had 72%. Voting on  a) DRE, b) Optiscan, c) Paper ballots.
      9. Arizona: 4.1% decline (17,000 votes) in Maricopa County  voter turnout (50.2%) from 2008. Turnout in the other 14 AZ counties increased by  8.3%. This is a) a statistical fluke, b) of no consequence, c) indicates massive fraud.
      10. Arizona Yavapai County Daily Courier exit poll: Bernie led by 63-37%. Hillary won  the county  with a) 52%, b) 54%, c) 56%
      11. Sanders:  Won 7  primaries (41% share) and 12  caucuses (65% share). The 24% discrepancy is a) of no significance, b) just a statistical fluke, c) indicates massive election fraud. 
      12. Wisconsin final exit poll:  vote shares are not available for 124 (7%) minority respondents.  This is because a) they did not respond to the exit poll, b) their responses were insignificant, c) there is no logical explanation
      13. Wisconsin: Sanders had 51% of blacks in the final pre-election poll. But he had only 31% in the adjusted exit poll.  Which of the following is false? The difference is a) plausible, b) unlikely, c) necessary to  force  a match to the recorded vote.
      14. Wisconsin: Sanders had 68% of whites at the 4pm exit poll timeline, but just 59% in the final exit poll. Which of the following is false? The difference is a) plausible, b) unlikely, c) necessary to  forced  a match to the recorded vote.
      15. Adjusted exit polls: unadjusted polls are always forced to match the recorded vote. This is a) standard operating procedure, b) unscientific, c) assumes zero fraud, d) all of the above.
      16. Wyoming caucus: Bernie won by 56-44% yet Hillary picked up 11 delegates to Bernie’s 7. This is a) no big deal, b) the way the system works, c) proof of a rigged election.
      17. Recorded shares:  Sanders has a) 45.3%, b) 47.4%, c) 48.4%
      18. Gallup-weighted shares:  Sanders has a) 50.3%, b) 51.9%, c) 53.6%
      19. New York: Hillary won by 57.9-42.1%. She won the exit poll by 52-48%. The probability that the 11.8% discrepancy was due to chance is: a) 1 in 97,000, b) 1 in 126,000, c) 1 in 242,000
      20. Probability that Sanders exit poll discrepancy from the recorded vote would exceed the margin of error in 11 of 26 primaries is  a ) 1 in 18 billion, b) 1 in 47 billion, c) 1 in 77 billion
      21. Election fraud:  Sanders did better than his recorded vote because  a) voter rolls were manipulated, b) 11 exit polls exceeded the margin of error, c) the number polling locations were reduced , d) all
      22. Approval ratings : Clinton  had a 40% approval rating. Approval rating is a) highly correlated to exit polls, b) Sanders rating is consistently higher than Clinton , c) candidates with less than 50% approval always lose the true vote in an election, d) all
      23. Connecticut  primary: Clinton won the primary by 51.8-46.4%.  Sanders led the preliminary exit poll  by 55-40%. The probability of the shift is a) 1%, b) 2%, c) ZERO
      24.  Paper Ballots: Clinton won non-paper ballot primaries by 65-33%. She won paper ballot primaries by 50-48%. The probability that the discrepancy  was not due to fraud is a) 1%, b) 2%,  c) ZERO
      25. Adjusted exit polls: matched Clinton’s recorded share to within  a) 0.06%, b) 0.5%, c) 0.9%
      26. California:  Sanders’ highest vote share in 58 counties was in Humboldt county (71%). This was likely due to the fact that a) it is very liberal, b)  the only county in the U.S. which uses an Open Source system to audit the votes, c)  it was just a coincidence.
      27. California: Clinton led in votes counted on Election Day by 56.4-43.6% . Sanders led after Election Day with a) 47.8%, b) 51.7%, c) 52.7%.
      28. New York: Clinton won by 57.1-47.9%. The 2 Party-ID exit poll split was 83% Democrats and 14% Independents.  Sanders had 72% of Independents and 38% of Democrats. Based on the Gallup survey, the estimated split is  53% Independents and 47% Democrats.  Using the Gallup split, Sanders had a) 51%, b) 52%, c) 53%
      29. Red states (11): Clinton had 70%. The split was 59% Independents and 41% Democrats. If Sanders had 55% of Independents, Clinton needed 106% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. It is a) implausible, b) impossible, c) an incorrect calculation.
      30. Nevada caucus: Clinton won by 52.7-47.3%.  The exit poll split was 81% Democrats and 18% Independents. Sanders had 76% of Independents and 41% of Democrats.  But according to the Gallup 2-party survey, an estimated 58% were Independents and 42% Democrats. Applying the Gallup split with the same vote shares, Sanders won by 61-39%.  Clinton needed 93% of Democrats to match the recorded vote.
        That is a) implausible, b) impossible, c) an incorrect calculation

 

Answers:
1a 2c 3c 4c 5c 6b 7a 8a 9c 10c 11c 12c 13c 14a 15d
16c 17a 18c 19b 20c 21d 22d 23c 24c 25a 26b 27c 28c 29b 30a

 
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Posted by on April 11, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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