Tag Archives: 2016 Democratic Primary Forecast

NY Democratic Primary: Your forecast

Richard Charnin
April 18, 2016

You can listen to the pundits who told you that Hillary is leading by 17%, implying that it is all over and it’s time to just anoint Hillary, so why even bother to vote? Or you can actually go out and vote.

Now these so-called  election forecasters (who never mention the fraud factor) are going to try and project the vote to within 1% – with Hillary winning of course. I’m not going to tell you what the final vote will be. I’m not that smart.

But I will say this: Win or lose, Bernie will do much better than reported in the media.

So do the forecast. Below is a matrix table which shows approximately how Bernie will do if he gets 45-65% of the white vote and 45-65% of non-whites. That’s 25 scenarios. It’s called a sensitivity analysis.  Bernie’s total vote share is a function of his share of whites and non-whites.

Fully expect that one of the 25 scenarios will closely match Bernie’s final recorded vote.

Know this: if the CNN exit poll indicates that Bernie had 45% of whites and 45% of non-whites (or 45% overall) do not believe it. In fact, expect that Bernie will do 5-8% better than the recorded vote. Remember the exit poll is always adjusted to match the recorded vote.

So here goes.  Pick out the cell which contains Bernie’s share that you believe will be closest to the final recorded vote. In other words predict Bernie’s recorded share of the white vote and non-white vote, knowing that it will surely understate his True Vote.

For instance, cell C2 = 56.2%

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Race………….. NYReg Sanders Clinton
White…………… 76.6% 55.0% 45.0%
Non-white……… 23.4% 60.0% 40.0%
TOTAL…………….100% 56.2% 43.8%

………………………..Sanders % White
……………………..45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0%
………………………A……..B……..C……..D…….E
%Non-White………………. Sanders TOTAL
1. 65.0%………….. 49.7% 53.5% 57.3% 61.2% 65.0%
2. 60.0%………….. 48.5% 52.3% 56.2% 60.0% 63.8%
3. 55.0%………….. 47.3% 51.2% 55.0% 58.8% 62.7%
4. 50.0%………….. 46.2% 50.0% 53.8% 57.7% 61.5%
5. 45.0%………….. 45.0% 48.8% 52.7% 56.5% 60.3%