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University of Virginia Study: 20% of Trump Voters were former Obama Voters

Richard Charnin
April 29, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Larry Sabato is the founder and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. 
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/04/larry-sabato-20-trump-voters-former-obama-voters-video/

Sabato said: “This is the largest study of just Trump voters… The first thing that is perfectly clear is that Trump has not lost almost none of his backers, which includes the soft Trump voters. He’s still got 92-93% of them supporting him. It’s also true he hasn’t gained many people from the other side. We live in a very polarized era… What I found fascinating, nobody else has identified this, 20% of Trump voters actually voted for Obama either in 2008 or in 2012 or in both years. In other words a fifth of his vote came from Obama voters”.

I calculated Trump’s vote share based on the above: If 20% of Trump voters were former Obama voters, then the vote share calculation indicates that Trump won by an estimated 48.3-42.9% (7 million votes), confirming the True Vote Model: Trump by 48.5-44.3% (351-187 EV).

2012….. Pct……Trump Clinton Other……..Trump share
Obama…. 51.1%…. 19%….75%….. 6%……….9.7% 20% <<<<
Romney… 47.2%…. 80%…..8%…..12%……..37.8% 78%
Other…….. 1.7%….. 48%….46%……6%……….0.8% 2%

Total….. 100%…..48.3%. 42.9%…8.8%…..48.3% 100%

TRUE VOTE MODEL

Includes estimated 2012 voter turnout in 2016 and new voters.
Assumption: 18.3% of Trump voters were returning Obama voters
True Vote share: Clinton 42.8%, Trump 47.8%, Other 9.4%
True Vote: Clinton 58.3 million, Trump 65.1, Other 12.8
Recorded share: Clinton 48.3%, Trump 46.2%, Other 5.5%
Recorded Vote: Clinton 65.7 million, Trump 62.9, Other 7.6
(9.7 million flip in margin (7.1%) from the Recorded to True vote)
Returning and new voters
Clinton Trump Other Trump%
Obama 44.6 11.9 3.0 18.3%
Romney 4.6 44.1 8.6 67.8%
Other 0.9 0.9 0.2 1.4%
DNV (new) 8.1 8.1 1.0 12.5%
Total 58.3 65.1 12.8 100.0%
2012 Mix Clinton Trump Other Turnout
Obama 43.66% 75% 20% 5% 94%
Romney 42.09% 8% 77% 15% 98%
Other 1.54% 45% 45% 10% 95%
DNV (new) 12.70% 47% 47% 6%
True Share 100% 42.8% 47.8% 9.4%
 True Vote 136.2 58.3 65.1 12.8
Recorded 136.2 65.7 62.9 7.6
Change -7.4 2.2 5.2
Trump% Obama 18% 19% 20% 21% 22%
Trump% Romney Trump share
79% 47.8% 48.2% 48.7% 49.1% 49.5%
78% 47.4% 47.8% 48.2% 48.7% 49.1%
77% 46.9% 47.4% 47.8% 48.2% 48.7%
76% 46.5% 47.0% 47.4% 47.8% 48.3%
75% 46.1% 46.5% 47.0% 47.4% 47.8%
Clinton share
79% 42.8% 42.4% 41.9% 41.5% 41.1%
78% 43.2% 42.8% 42.4% 41.9% 41.5%
77% 43.7% 43.2% 42.8% 42.3% 41.9%
76% 44.1% 43.6% 43.2% 42.8% 42.3%
75% 44.5% 44.1% 43.6% 43.2% 42.7%
Trump % margin
79% 5.0% 5.8% 6.7% 7.6% 8.5%
78% 4.1% 5.0% 5.9% 6.7% 7.6%
77% 3.3% 4.2% 5.0% 5.9% 6.8%
76% 2.4% 3.3% 4.2% 5.1% 5.9%
75% 1.6% 2.5% 3.3% 4.2% 5.1%
Trump vote margin
79% 6.77 7.96 9.15 10.33 11.52
78% 5.62 6.81 8.00 9.19 10.38
77% 4.47 5.66 6.85 8.04 9.23
76% 3.33 4.52 5.71 6.89 8.08
75% 2.18 3.37 4.56 5.75 6.94

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/why-the-recorded-vote-and-unadjusted-exit-polls-are-wrong/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0

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Posted by on April 29, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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Democratic primary: Sanders Approval ratings matching pre-election and exit polls indicate fraud

Democratic primary: Sanders’ approval ratings match to pre-election and exit polls indicate fraud

Richard Charnin
June 8, 2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll 
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
Recommended reading: election fraud-Nina Illingworth

This brief post will provide further evidence that Sanders is leading the total primary vote. It is based on the historical fact that approval ratings are highly correlated to national pre-election polls, exit polls and vote shares.

Clinton is leading by approximately 3 million votes (56-44%). But she has a 42% favorability rating. It is highly anomalous and counter-intuitive when compared to Sanders 49% rating.  Clinton’s  declining ratings are a source of worry for the DNC.

Current polls show that Sanders does better  than Clinton against  Trump.
Sanders vs. Trump  Clinton vs. Trump

The strong correlation of ratings and vote shares indicates Sanders is leading the True Vote by an estimated 1.7 million margin (53.5-46.5%). View Sanders’ favorable/unfavorable ratings.

Clinton favorable/unfavorable ratings – Real Clear Politics

Clinton Poll Date Sample
Favorable
Unfavorable
Spread
RCP Average 5/1 – 5/30 37.4 55.5 -18.1
Quinnipiac 5/24 – 5/30 1561 RV 37 57 -20
The Economist/YouGov* 5/20 – 5/23 2000 RV 43 54 -11
ABC News/Wash Post 5/16 – 5/19 829 RV 41 57 -16
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 5/15 – 5/19 1000 RV 34 54 -20
FOX News 5/14 – 5/17 1021 RV 37 61 -24
CBS News/NY Times 5/13 – 5/17 1109 RV 31 52 -21
Gallup 5/1 – 5/22 10598 A 40 54 -14
PPP (D) 5/6 – 5/9 1222 RV 36 55 -19

In a previous post,  the True Vote was estimated from actual caucus votes, exit polls, estimated manipulation of voter rolls, absentee and provisional ballots. Sanders leads by 51.5-48.5% (800,000 votes). https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/05/28/democratic-primaries-is-clinton-leading-by-3-million-votes/

Sanders exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries  exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190,000. The difference between his exit poll share and recorded share exceeded the margin of error in 11 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion. 

Sanders won 13 of 14 caucuses with an average 65.4% vote share and 9 of 36 primaries with a 43.9% average share. The probability of the 21.5% difference occurring by chance is 2.27% (the probability of election fraud is 97.73%).

Prob = 97.73% =normsdist (ZS), where ZS = 2.00 = .21/ sqrt(.135/36 +.109/14)
.135 is the standard deviation for the primaries
.109 is the standard deviation for the caucuses

Current polls show that Sanders does better  than Clinton against  Trump.
Sanders vs. Trump  Clinton vs. Trump

2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

In the 2004 election,  the Bush approval rating trend was highly correlated  (0.87) to his monthly pre-election polls. 

The UNADJUSTED STATE EXIT POLLS tracked closely to the STATE APPROVAL RATINGS. There was a near-perfect 0.99 CORRELATION  between the  polls and approval ratings.

 

 
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Posted by on June 8, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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