Richard Charnin
Nov. 7, 2016
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO POSTS
Unlike corporate mainstream polls, the 2016 Election Model provides two forecasts: the Recorded Vote and the True Vote. Pollsters are usually quite accurate in their projections of the Recorded Vote. But they avoid the fraud factor. The fraudulent Recorded Vote is never the same as the True Vote. Clinton won the recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%.
The Election Model is based on the effects of changes in party affiliation (Dem, Rep, Ind) from 2012 to 2016. Clinton led the final 9-poll average 45.8-43.3% (298-240 EV).
Election Model forecast: State party-ID weights were adjusted to Gallup party-affiliation survey weights. Gallup is the only poll dedicated to tracking national party affiliation.
After adjusting the polls for the Gallup voter affiliation (40I-32D-28R), undecided voters were allocated (UVA) to derive the final adjusted TRUE poll share. Typically the challenger (in this case Trump) wins the majority (75%) of the undecided vote.
Forecast before UVA: Trump wins 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV.
UVA adjustment: 75% of undecided voters allocated to Trump.
True Vote after UVA: Trump wins 48.4-44.3% with 352-186 EV.
Forecast Methodology
The 2016 party-ID for each state is calculated by applying the same proportional change from the 2012 state party-ID as the change from the 2012 National party-ID to the 2016 Gallup National survey party-ID. The popular vote win probability and corresponding Electoral Vote are estimated for each pre-election poll. State votes are forecast by applying national pre-election poll shares to the state party-ID.
The electoral vote is calculated two ways: 1) the total EV (snapshot) in which the winner of the state wins all of the state electoral votes and 2) the statistically expected EV (state win probability times the state electoral vote). Sensitivity Analysis tables show the effect of incremental vote shares on the total vote.
Sensitivity Analysis: Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA) effect on expected Electoral and Popular vote win probability
UVA Trump Clinton EV WinProb
50%….47.1….45.6…….310….. 75%
60%….47.6….45.1…….332….. 86%
75%….48.5….44.3…….352….. 96%
Note: The 2008 and 2012 election models exactly forecast the electoral vote (365 and 332 for Obama). But the True Votes were quite different. The 2008 model forecast that Obama would win 420 votes with a 58% share, exactly matching the state unadjusted exit poll aggregate. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37%.
The 2012 model forecast that Obama would win 51.5% recorded and 55% True vote (380 EV}. The exit pollsters did not poll in 19 states. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/
| 9 Polls | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein |
| Party-ID | Gallup Pct | ||||
| Ind | 40.0% | 33.8% | 43.6% | 8.9% | 3.8% |
| Dem | 32.0% | 88.1% | 6.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% |
| Rep | 28.0% | 5.6% | 87.8% | 3.9% | 0.3% |
| Calc | 94.7% | 43.29% | 44.67% | 5.07% | 2.14% |
| 9Poll Avg | 94.6% | 43.31% | 44.13% | 5.07% | 2.14% |
| UVA | 100.0% | 44.33% | 48.43% | 5.07% | 2.14% |
| Recorded | 98.77% | 48.25% | 46.17% | 3.29% | 1.07% |
| REPORTED | Vote | EVote | |||||
| Party ID | Ind | Dem | Rep | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump |
| Ipsos | 16% | 45% | 38% | 43.0% | 39.0% | 317 | 221 |
| IBD | 37% | 34% | 29% | 41.0% | 43.0% | 216 | 322 |
| Rasmussen | 32% | 40% | 28% | 45.0% | 43.0% | 313 | 225 |
| Quinnipiac | 26% | 40% | 34% | 47.0% | 40.0% | 378 | 160 |
| Fox News | 19% | 43% | 38% | 48.0% | 44.0% | 317 | 221 |
| CNN | 43% | 31% | 26% | 49.0% | 44.0% | 362 | 176 |
| ABC | 29% | 37% | 29% | 47.0% | 43.0% | 317 | 221 |
| Gravis | 27% | 40% | 33% | 47.0% | 45.0% | 294 | 244 |
| LA Times | 30% | 38% | 32% | 42.6% | 48.2% | 180 | 358 |
| Average | 28.8% | 38.7% | 31.9% | 45.5% | 43.2% | 299 | 239 |
| Gallup Adj. | Vote | EVote | Trump | UVA | ||
| 40I-32D-28R | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump | WinProb | WinProb |
| Ipsos | 37.9% | 36.4% | 288 | 250 | 25.2% | 96.2% |
| IBD | 40.2% | 43.2% | 216 | 322 | 88.3% | 99.5% |
| Rasmussen | 41.1% | 45.3% | 187 | 351 | 94.4% | 99.6% |
| Quinnipiac | 44.7% | 40.8% | 335 | 203 | 6.5% | 35.8% |
| Fox News | 44.2% | 43.9% | 255 | 283 | 45.3% | 66.1% |
| CNN | 48.6% | 44.4% | 335 | 203 | 7.0% | 13.7% |
| ABC | 46.8% | 47.0% | 249 | 289 | 53.9% | 58.0% |
| Gravis | 43.6% | 45.5% | 216 | 322 | 75.0% | 97.5% |
| LA Times | 40.3% | 49.8% | 51 | 487 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Average | 43.3% | 44.1% | 236 | 302 | 74.7% | 91.4% |
| Calc pre UVA | 43.3% | 44.7% | 232 | 306 | 96.1% | |
| Calc post UVA | 44.3% | 48.4% | 186 | 352 | 100% |
| Forecast Vote | Recorded | Electoral | ||
| before UVA | Clinton % | Trump % | Clinton | Trump |
| Total | 42.9 | 44.4 | 232 | 306 |
| AK | 32.4 | 49.6 | 0 | 3 |
| AL | 37.4 | 51.0 | 0 | 9 |
| AR | 39.4 | 48.6 | 0 | 6 |
| AZ | 37.9 | 47.6 | 0 | 11 |
| CA | 45.7 | 41.0 | 55 | 0 |
| CO | 39.1 | 46.5 | 0 | 9 |
| CT | 44.2 | 40.5 | 7 | 0 |
| DC | 66.0 | 23.6 | 3 | 0 |
| DE | 47.6 | 39.7 | 3 | 0 |
| FL | 42.2 | 44.8 | 0 | 29 |
| GA | 40.5 | 47.7 | 0 | 16 |
| HI | 46.7 | 41.8 | 4 | 0 |
| IA | 39.4 | 46.1 | 0 | 6 |
| ID | 33.2 | 54.5 | 0 | 4 |
| IL | 45.8 | 42.4 | 20 | 0 |
| IN | 39.4 | 48.6 | 0 | 11 |
| KS | 33.9 | 52.3 | 0 | 6 |
| KY | 47.9 | 41.8 | 8 | 0 |
| LA | 38.6 | 45.7 | 0 | 8 |
| MA | 45.9 | 37.2 | 11 | 0 |
| MD | 51.4 | 36.7 | 10 | 0 |
| ME | 40.9 | 44.1 | 0 | 4 |
| MI | 44.1 | 44.0 | 16 | 0 |
| MN | 43.6 | 44.7 | 0 | 10 |
| MO | 40.3 | 48.0 | 0 | 10 |
| MS | 39.4 | 49.0 | 0 | 6 |
| MT | 36.1 | 52.3 | 0 | 3 |
| NC | 44.5 | 42.3 | 15 | 0 |
| ND | 38.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 3 |
| NE | 35.8 | 52.0 | 0 | 5 |
| NH | 38.1 | 46.6 | 0 | 4 |
| NJ | 42.8 | 41.2 | 14 | 0 |
| NM | 46.5 | 41.1 | 5 | 0 |
| NV | 42.7 | 44.4 | 0 | 6 |
| NY | 49.3 | 37.7 | 29 | 0 |
| OH | 41.6 | 46.7 | 0 | 18 |
| OK | 42.5 | 46.5 | 0 | 7 |
| OR | 42.9 | 43.3 | 0 | 7 |
| PA | 46.6 | 42.3 | 20 | 0 |
| RI | 48.7 | 35.4 | 4 | 0 |
| SC | 40.3 | 48.0 | 0 | 9 |
| SD | 37.5 | 50.4 | 0 | 3 |
| TN | 37.9 | 50.3 | 0 | 11 |
| TX | 40.1 | 47.5 | 0 | 38 |
| UT | 31.2 | 57.3 | 0 | 6 |
| VA | 41.2 | 47.0 | 0 | 13 |
| VT | 46.7 | 41.0 | 3 | 0 |
| WA | 42.8 | 46.6 | 0 | 12 |
| WI | 42.7 | 45.7 | 0 | 10 |
| WV | 48.2 | 39.5 | 5 | 0 |
| WY | 26.8 | 61.9 | 0 | 3 |
| PopVote | Exp. EV | Gallup | UVA | |||
| WinProb | Prob*EV | Clinton | Trump | Trump | Trump | |
| 91.4% | 365 | Actual | Actual | PreUVA | PostUVA | |
| 232 | 306 | 306 | 358 | |||
| 100.0% | 3.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | AK | |
| 100.0% | 9.0 | 9 | 9 | 9 | AL | |
| 100.0% | 6.0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | AR | |
| 100.0% | 11.0 | 11 | 11 | 11 | AZ | |
| 22.5% | 12.4 | 55 | CA | |||
| 100.0% | 9.0 | 9 | 9 | 9 | CO | |
| 36.9% | 2.6 | 7 | CT | |||
| 0.0% | 0.0 | 3 | DC | |||
| 3.0% | 0.1 | 3 | DE | |||
| 96.0% | 27.8 | 29 | 29 | 29 | FL | |
| 99.9% | 16.0 | 16 | 16 | 16 | GA | |
| 17.7% | 0.7 | 4 | HI | |||
| 99.9% | 6.0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | IA | |
| 100.0% | 4.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | ID | |
| 34.2% | 6.8 | 20 | IL | |||
| 100.0% | 11.0 | 11 | 11 | 11 | IN | |
| 100.0% | 6.0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | KS | |
| 99.9% | 8.0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | KY | |
| 100.0% | 8.0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | LA | |
| 2.4% | 0.3 | 11 | MA | |||
| 0.0% | 0.0 | 10 | MD | |||
| 98.2% | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | ME |
| 77.7% | 12.4 | 16 | 16 | MI | ||
| 87.3% | 8.7 | 10 | 10 | 10 | MN | |
| 100.0% | 10.0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | MO | |
| 100.0% | 6.0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | MS | |
| 100.0% | 3.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | MT | |
| 54.3% | 8.2 | 15 | 15 | NC | ||
| 100.0% | 3.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ND | |
| 100.0% | 5.0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | NE |
| 100.0% | 4.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | NH | |
| 67.1% | 9.4 | 14 | 14 | NJ | ||
| 15.2% | 0.8 | 5 | NM | |||
| 92.5% | 5.6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | NV | |
| 0.1% | 0.0 | 29 | NY | |||
| 99.4% | 17.9 | 18 | 18 | 18 | OH | |
| 98.2% | 6.9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | OK | |
| 51.9% | 3.6 | 7 | 7 | OR | ||
| 23.1% | 4.6 | 20 | PA | |||
| 0.0% | 0.0 | 4 | RI | |||
| 100.0% | 9.0 | 9 | 9 | 9 | SC | |
| 100.0% | 3.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | SD | |
| 100.0% | 11.0 | 11 | 11 | 11 | TN | |
| 100.0% | 38.0 | 38 | 38 | 38 | TX | |
| 100.0% | 6.0 | 6 | 6 | 6 | UT | |
| 99.7% | 13.0 | 13 | 13 | 13 | VA | |
| 12.1% | 0.4 | 3 | VT | |||
| 97.8% | 11.7 | 12 | 12 | 12 | WA | |
| 96.3% | 9.6 | 10 | 10 | 10 | WI | |
| 1.4% | 0.1 | 5 | WV | |||
| 100.0% | 3.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | WY |
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