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2016 Election Model Forecast

Richard Charnin
Nov. 7, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Unlike corporate mainstream polls, the 2016 Election Model  provides two forecasts:  the Recorded Vote and the True Vote. Pollsters are usually quite accurate in their projections of the Recorded Vote. But they avoid the fraud factor. The fraudulent Recorded Vote is never the same as the True Vote. Clinton won the recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%.

The  Election Model  is based on the effects of changes in party affiliation (Dem, Rep, Ind) from 2012 to 2016. Clinton led the final 9-poll average 45.8-43.3% (298-240 EV). 

Election Model forecast: State party-ID weights were adjusted to Gallup party-affiliation survey weights. Gallup is the only poll dedicated to tracking national  party affiliation. 

After adjusting the polls for the Gallup voter affiliation  (40I-32D-28R), undecided voters were allocated (UVA) to derive the final adjusted TRUE poll share. Typically the challenger (in this case Trump) wins the majority (75%) of the undecided vote.

Forecast before UVA: Trump wins 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV.
UVA adjustment: 75% of undecided voters  allocated to Trump.
True Vote after UVA: Trump wins 48.4-44.3% with 352-186 EV.

Forecast Methodology

The 2016 party-ID for each state is calculated by applying the same proportional change from the 2012 state party-ID as the change from the 2012 National party-ID to the 2016 Gallup National survey party-ID. The popular vote win probability and corresponding Electoral Vote are estimated for each pre-election poll. State votes are forecast by applying national pre-election poll shares to the state party-ID.

The electoral vote is  calculated two ways: 1)  the total EV  (snapshot) in which the winner of the state wins all  of the state electoral votes and 2) the statistically expected EV (state win probability times the state electoral vote). Sensitivity Analysis tables show the effect of incremental vote shares on the total vote.

Sensitivity Analysis: Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA) effect on expected Electoral and Popular vote win probability 

UVA  Trump Clinton  EV   WinProb
50%….47.1….45.6…….310….. 75%
60%….47.6….45.1…….332….. 86%
75%….48.5….44.3…….352….. 96%

Note: The 2008 and 2012 election models exactly forecast the electoral vote (365 and 332 for Obama). But the True Votes were quite different. The 2008 model forecast that Obama would win 420 votes with a 58% share, exactly matching the state unadjusted exit poll aggregate. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37%.  

The 2012 model forecast that Obama would win 51.5% recorded and 55% True vote (380 EV}.  The exit pollsters did not poll in 19 states. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

9 Polls Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Party-ID Gallup Pct
Ind 40.0% 33.8% 43.6% 8.9% 3.8%
Dem 32.0% 88.1% 6.9% 1.3% 1.7%
Rep 28.0% 5.6% 87.8% 3.9% 0.3%
Calc 94.7% 43.29% 44.67% 5.07% 2.14%
9Poll Avg 94.6% 43.31% 44.13% 5.07% 2.14%
UVA 100.0% 44.33% 48.43% 5.07% 2.14%
Recorded 98.77% 48.25% 46.17% 3.29% 1.07%
REPORTED     Vote   EVote  
Party ID Ind Dem Rep Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Ipsos 16% 45% 38% 43.0% 39.0% 317 221
IBD 37% 34% 29% 41.0% 43.0% 216 322
Rasmussen 32% 40% 28% 45.0% 43.0% 313 225
Quinnipiac 26% 40% 34% 47.0% 40.0% 378 160
Fox News 19% 43% 38% 48.0% 44.0% 317 221
CNN 43% 31% 26% 49.0% 44.0% 362 176
ABC 29% 37% 29% 47.0% 43.0% 317 221
Gravis 27% 40% 33% 47.0% 45.0% 294 244
LA Times 30% 38% 32% 42.6% 48.2% 180 358
Average 28.8% 38.7% 31.9% 45.5% 43.2% 299 239
Gallup Adj.  Vote   EVote   Trump UVA
40I-32D-28R Clinton Trump Clinton Trump WinProb WinProb
Ipsos 37.9% 36.4% 288 250 25.2% 96.2%
IBD 40.2% 43.2% 216 322 88.3% 99.5%
Rasmussen 41.1% 45.3% 187 351 94.4% 99.6%
Quinnipiac 44.7% 40.8% 335 203 6.5% 35.8%
Fox News 44.2% 43.9% 255 283 45.3% 66.1%
CNN 48.6% 44.4% 335 203 7.0% 13.7%
ABC 46.8% 47.0% 249 289 53.9% 58.0%
Gravis 43.6% 45.5% 216 322 75.0% 97.5%
LA Times 40.3% 49.8% 51 487 100.0% 100.0%
Average 43.3% 44.1% 236 302 74.7% 91.4%
Calc  pre UVA 43.3%  44.7% 232 306   96.1%
Calc post  UVA 44.3% 48.4% 186 352   100%
Forecast Vote Recorded  Electoral
 before UVA Clinton % Trump % Clinton Trump
Total 42.9 44.4 232 306
AK 32.4 49.6 0 3
AL 37.4 51.0 0 9
AR 39.4 48.6 0 6
AZ 37.9 47.6 0 11
CA 45.7 41.0 55 0
CO 39.1 46.5 0 9
CT 44.2 40.5 7 0
DC 66.0 23.6 3 0
DE 47.6 39.7 3 0
FL 42.2 44.8 0 29
GA 40.5 47.7 0 16
HI 46.7 41.8 4 0
IA 39.4 46.1 0 6
ID 33.2 54.5 0 4
IL 45.8 42.4 20 0
IN 39.4 48.6 0 11
KS 33.9 52.3 0 6
KY 47.9 41.8 8 0
LA 38.6 45.7 0 8
MA 45.9 37.2 11 0
MD 51.4 36.7 10 0
ME 40.9 44.1 0 4
MI 44.1 44.0 16 0
MN 43.6 44.7 0 10
MO 40.3 48.0 0 10
MS 39.4 49.0 0 6
MT 36.1 52.3 0 3
NC 44.5 42.3 15 0
ND 38.3 50.0 0 3
NE 35.8 52.0 0 5
NH 38.1 46.6 0 4
NJ 42.8 41.2 14 0
NM 46.5 41.1 5 0
NV 42.7 44.4 0 6
NY 49.3 37.7 29 0
OH 41.6 46.7 0 18
OK 42.5 46.5 0 7
OR 42.9 43.3 0 7
PA 46.6 42.3 20 0
RI 48.7 35.4 4 0
SC 40.3 48.0 0 9
SD 37.5 50.4 0 3
TN 37.9 50.3 0 11
TX 40.1 47.5 0 38
UT 31.2 57.3 0 6
VA 41.2 47.0 0 13
VT 46.7 41.0 3 0
WA 42.8 46.6 0 12
WI 42.7 45.7 0 10
WV 48.2 39.5 5 0
WY 26.8 61.9 0 3

 

 

 

PopVote Exp. EV Gallup UVA
WinProb Prob*EV Clinton Trump Trump Trump
91.4% 365 Actual Actual PreUVA PostUVA
232 306 306 358
100.0% 3.0 3 3 3 AK
100.0% 9.0 9 9 9 AL
100.0% 6.0 6 6 6 AR
100.0% 11.0 11 11 11 AZ
22.5% 12.4 55 CA
100.0% 9.0 9 9 9 CO
36.9% 2.6 7 CT
0.0% 0.0 3 DC
3.0% 0.1 3 DE
96.0% 27.8 29 29 29 FL
99.9% 16.0 16 16 16 GA
17.7% 0.7 4 HI
99.9% 6.0 6 6 6 IA
100.0% 4.0 4 4 4 ID
34.2% 6.8 20 IL
100.0% 11.0 11 11 11 IN
100.0% 6.0 6 6 6 KS
99.9% 8.0 8 8 8 KY
100.0% 8.0 8 8 8 LA
2.4% 0.3 11 MA
0.0% 0.0 10 MD
98.2% 3.9 2 2 4 4 ME
77.7% 12.4 16 16 MI
87.3% 8.7 10 10 10 MN
100.0% 10.0 10 10 10 MO
100.0% 6.0 6 6 6 MS
100.0% 3.0 3 3 3 MT
54.3% 8.2 15 15 NC
100.0% 3.0 3 3 3 ND
100.0% 5.0 1 4 4 4 NE
100.0% 4.0 4 4 4 NH
67.1% 9.4 14 14 NJ
15.2% 0.8 5 NM
92.5% 5.6 6 6 6 NV
0.1% 0.0 29 NY
99.4% 17.9 18 18 18 OH
98.2% 6.9 7 7 7 OK
51.9% 3.6 7 7 OR
23.1% 4.6 20 PA
0.0% 0.0 4 RI
100.0% 9.0 9 9 9 SC
100.0% 3.0 3 3 3 SD
100.0% 11.0 11 11 11 TN
100.0% 38.0 38 38 38 TX
100.0% 6.0 6 6 6 UT
99.7% 13.0 13 13 13 VA
12.1% 0.4 3 VT
97.8% 11.7 12 12 12 WA
96.3% 9.6 10 10 10 WI
1.4% 0.1 5 WV
100.0% 3.0 3 3 3 WY
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