Exposing the 2016 Popular Vote Myth
Richard Charnin
April 5, 2018
The myth that Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million is parroted daily by pundits, even Trump supporters. Clinton won a fraudulent recorded popular vote, but Trump won the True Vote. It’s 2018 and the pundits still fail to recognize the historical fact that the recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote. It’s past time for a great awakening.
Trump wins the True Vote by 50.5-43.4%, a 9.7 million vote margin.
We estimate the True Vote based on the following simple models:
- 1 Adjustments to the recorded vote: illegal votes , disenfranchised voters, voting machine flips
- 2 Race: Census breakdown and shares of white and non-white voters
- 3 Returning 2012 voters and 2016 vote shares
- 4 Party-ID: Gallup voter survey and vote shares
- 5 Decided: Vote shares before and after Sept. 1
Given Model 1 adjustments to the recorded vote, we calculate an estimated True Vote. In models 2,3,4,5 we estimate vote shares required to match the True Vote.
http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president
Adjustment | Estimate | Clinton | Trump | Other |
Illegal | 3.0 mil | 85% | 10% | 5% |
Disenfran | 4.0 mil | 85% | 10% | 5% |
Net Vote Flip | 7.0 mil | 0% | 90% | 10% |
Total | Clinton | Trump | Other | Margin | |
Recorded | 136.22 | 65.72 | 62.89 | 7.61 | 2.83 |
Adjustment | 48.25% | 46.17% | 5.59% | 2.08% | |
Illegal | -3.0 | -2.55 | -0.30 | -0.15 | -2.25 |
Disenfran | 4.0 | 3.40 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 3.00 |
Vote Flip | 0.0 | -7.00 | 6.30 | 0.70 | -13.30 |
True Vote | 137.22 | 59.57 | 69.29 | 8.36 | 9.72 |
43.41% | 50.50% | 6.09% | 7.08% |
Census | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other |
white (adj.) | 73.30% | 32.4% | 61.14% | 6.5% |
Black | 12.45% | 84% | 13% | 3% |
Latino | 9.22% | 66% | 28% | 6% |
Asian | 3.67% | 65% | 27% | 8% |
Other | 1.36% | 56% | 36% | 8% |
Calc | 100.00% | 43.41% | 50.50% | 6.09% |
Recorded | 100% | 48.25% | 46.17% | 5.59% |
Gallup | ||||
Party-ID | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other |
Dem | 31.0% | 88.0% | 10.0% | 2.0% |
Rep | 28.0% | 5.0% | 92.0% | 3.0% |
Ind | 41.0% | 36.0% | 53.0% | 11.0% |
Total | 100.0% | 43.44% | 50.59% | 5.97% |
Votes | 137.22 | 59.61 | 69.42 | 8.19 |
2012 | Mix | Clinton | Trump | Other |
Obama | 41.33% | 85% | 10% | 5% |
Romney | 40.80% | 5% | 92% | 3% |
Other | 1.54% | 35% | 40% | 25% |
DNV (new) | 16.32% | 35% | 51% | 14% |
Total | 100.0% | 43.43% | 50.61% | 5.96% |
Votes | 137.22 | 59.59 | 69.45 | 8.18 |
Decided | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other |
Before Sept 1 | 60.0% | 48% | 48% | 4.0% |
After Sept 1 | 40.0% | 37% | 54% | 9.2% |
True Vote | 43.41% | 50.50% | 6.09% |
Sensitivity Analysis
7 million vote flip | Trump Flip | ||
to Clinton | 80%= 5.6mm | 90%= 6.3mm | 100%=7mm |
Disenfranchised |
Trump True Vote
|
||
6.0 | 68.79 | 69.49 | 70.19 |
4.0 | 68.59 | 69.29 | 69.99 |
2.0 | 68.39 | 69.09 | 69.79 |
Trump | |||
6.0 | 50.1% | 50.6% | 51.2% |
4.0 | 50.0% | 50.50% | 51.0% |
2.0 | 49.8% | 50.4% | 50.9% |
Clinton | |||
6.0 | 43.8% | 43.3% | 42.8% |
4.0 | 43.9% | 43.41% | 42.9% |
2.0 | 44.1% | 43.6% | 43.0% |
Margin | |||
6.0 | 8.72 | 10.12 | 11.52 |
4.0 | 8.32 | 9.72 | 11.12 |
2.0 | 7.92 | 9.32 | 10.72 |
My Books
Trump Won the True Vote
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
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