Exposing the 2016 Popular Vote Myth

Exposing the 2016 Popular Vote Myth

Richard Charnin

April 5, 2018

The myth that Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million is parroted daily by pundits, even Trump supporters. Clinton won a fraudulent recorded popular vote, but Trump won the True Vote. It’s 2018 and the pundits still fail to recognize the historical fact that the recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote.  It’s past time for a great awakening.

Trump won the estimated True Vote by 50.5-43.4%, a 9.7 million vote margin. We estimate the True Vote based on the following simple models:

• 1 Adjustments to the recorded vote: illegal votes , disenfranchised voters, voting machine flips 
• 2 Race: Census breakdown and shares of white and non-white voters
• 3 Returning 2012 voters and 2016 vote shares
• 4 Party-ID: Gallup voter survey and vote shares
• 5 When Decided: before and after Sept. 1

Given Model 1 adjustments to the recorded vote, we calculate an estimated True Vote. In models 2,3,4,5 we estimate vote shares required to match the True Vote.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415 https://www.theepochtimes.com/voting-machines-in-16-states-tied-to-george-soros-ally_2176907.html http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president

https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/trump-is-right-millions-of-illegals-probably-did-vote-in-2016/

Input

Estimate

Clinton

Trump

Other

Illegal	3.0 mil	85%	10%	5%
Disenfranchise	4.0 mil	85%	10%	5%
Machine Flip	7.0 mil	0%	90%	10%

1 Adjust	Total	Clinton	Trump	Other	Margin
Recorded	136.22	65.72	62.89	7.61	2.83
		48.25%	46.17%	5.59%	2.08%
Illegal	-3.0	-2.55	-0.30	-0.15	-2.25
Disenfran	4.0	3.40	0.40	0.20	3.00
Vote Flip	0.0	-7.00	6.30	0.70	-13.30
Total Vote	137.22	59.57	69.29	8.36	9.72
True Vote		43.41%	50.50%	6.09%	7.08%

2 Census	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
white (adj.)	73.30%	32.4%	61.14%	6.5%
Black	12.45%	84%	13%	3%
Latino	9.22%	66%	28%	6%
Asian	3.67%	65%	27%	8%
Other	1.36%	56%	36%	8%
True Vote	100.00%	43.41%	50.50%	6.09%
Recorded	100%	48.25%	46.17%	5.59%
3 Party-ID	Gallup Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
Dem	31.0%	88.0%	10.0%	2.0%
Rep	28.0%	5.0%	92.0%	3.0%
Ind	41.0%	36.0%	53.0%	11.0%
True Vote	100.0%	43.44%	50.59%	5.97%
Votes	137.22	59.61	69.42	8.19
4 Returning 2012 voters	Mix	Clinton	Trump	Other
Obama	41.33%	85%	10%	5%
Romney	40.80%	5%	92%	3%
Other	1.54%	35%	40%	25%
DNV (new)	16.32%	35%	51%	14%
True Vote	100.0%	43.43%	50.61%	5.96%
Votes	137.22	59.59	69.45	8.18

5 When Decided	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
Before Sept 1	60.0%	48%	48%	4.0%
After Sept 1	40.0%	37%	54%	9.2%
True Vote		43.41%	50.50%	6.09%

Sensitivity Analysis

Trump
% Whites	59.0%	60.0%	61.0%	62.0%	63.0%
% Blacks			Trump %
16%	49.28%	50.01%	50.75%	51.48%	52.21%
15%	49.15%	49.89%	50.62%	51.35%	52.09%
14%	49.03%	49.76%	50.50%	51.23%	51.96%
13%	48.91%	49.64%	50.37%	51.10%	51.84%
12%	48.78%	49.51%	50.25%	50.98%	51.71%
			Clinton
16%	44.63%	43.90%	43.16%	42.43%	41.70%
15%	44.75%	44.02%	43.29%	42.56%	41.82%
14%	44.88%	44.15%	43.41%	42.68%	41.95%
13%	45.00%	44.27%	43.54%	42.80%	42.07%
12%	45.13%	44.39%	43.66%	42.93%	42.20%
			Share Margin
16%	4.65%	6.12%	7.58%	9.05%	10.51%
15%	4.40%	5.87%	7.33%	8.80%	10.26%
14%	4.15%	5.62%	7.08%	8.55%	10.02%
13%	3.90%	5.37%	6.83%	8.30%	9.77%
12%	3.65%	5.12%	6.59%	8.05%	9.52%
			Vote Margin
16%	6.38	8.39	10.40	12.41	14.43
15%	6.04	8.05	10.06	12.07	14.08
14%	5.70	7.71	9.72	11.73	13.74
13%	5.36	7.37	9.38	11.39	13.40
12%	5.01	7.03	9.04	11.05	13.06

My Books

Trump Won the True Vote

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy

LINKS TO  POSTS

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What is the probability Dems will win the House?

Arizona CBS Senate Poll More Anomalies

Generic vote forecast model vs RCP average (10-29)

Analysis of inflated Democratic generic polls indicates Republicans will win the House

GOP wins Texas-SD-19 for first time in-139-years

Florida Governor Polling Analysis

Trump has a higher approval rating than MSM polls

Rasmussen vs. WaPo: Trump approval

 

 

2016 Election: illegal voters, uncounted votes, machine vote flipping

Richard Charnin
Updated Sept. 19, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.8 million. But the recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote due to election fraud.

There is evidence that millions of illegals probably voted in 2016. View this 1988-2016 trend analysis of Hispanic voter registration and turnout.

According to Greg Palast, least one million Democratic minority voters were disenfranchised via Crosscheckwhich eliminated voters with duplicate names from voter rolls. He claims that 7 million minority voters were disenfranchised.

There is evidence that  George Soros , a Clinton backer,  controls voting machines in 16 states.  Election analyst Bev Harris has posted Fraction Magic , an algorithm used to flip votes on Central tabulators.

Sensitivity analysis shows the effects of a range of assumptions on the vote count.

Let TV = True Vote; RV = Recorded vote
RV = TV + Fraud

Given the Recorded vote in millions:
Clinton 65.7, Trump 62.9, Other 7.6

Election fraud components:
-Vote flipping on maliciously coded, proprietary voting machines and central tabulators
-Illegal voters (non-citizens)
-Uncounted votes (spoiled ballots, disenfranchised voters)

Base Case Assumptions
Uncounted- 7 million: 85% for Clinton
Vote Flip- 5 million (net): 8% of Trump’s votes flipped to Clinton on voting machines and central tabulators. 
Illegals- 2 million: 85% for Clinton
Trump wins by 3.7 million: 68.7-64.9 (48.6-46.0%)

Assume 12 million uncounted: 85% to Clinton 
(2 million illegal, 5 million flip)
Trump still wins: 69.4-69.2 million (47.48-47.32%)

………..Total………Clinton….Trump……Other
Vote…..136.2……..65.7………62.9………7.6
Pct……,,100%..,….48.3%…..46.2%……5.6%

Illegal… 2.0…….  -1.70…..  -0.30…………0 non-citizens
Unctd…..7.0………5.95……..1.05…………0 disenfranchised 
Flip……..5.0…….  -5.0……….5.0………….0 voting machine

Net……141.2……64.9…….68.7………7.6
Adjusted………..46.0%….48.6%……5.4%

Sensitivity Analysis (assume 7 million uncounted, 85% for Clinton)
Worst case (7% flip, 80% of illegals to Clinton):  Trump wins by 2.3 million
Base case: (8%  flip, 85% of illegals to Clinton): Trump wins by 3.7 million
Best case: (9% flip, 90% of illegals to Clinton): Trump wins by 5.2 million

View the spreadsheet:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/01/19/millennials-make-up-almost-half-of-latino-eligible-voters-in-2016/ph_election-2016_chap1-chart-08/

	Total	Clinton	Trump	Other
Recorded vote	136.2 million	65.7	62.9	7.6
		48.25%	46.17%	5.59%
Illegal	2.0	-1.7	-0.3	0
Uncounted	7.0	5.95	1.05	0
Vote Flip	5.0	-5.0	5.0	0
Adjusted	141.22	64.9	68.7	7.6
		46.0%	48.6%	5.4%
	7.0 million uncounted	85% to Clinton
		Illegals to	Clinton
		80%	85%	90%
	Flip to Clinton		Trump Vote
	9%	69.20	69.30	69.40
	8%	68.57	68.67	68.77
	7%	67.94	68.04	68.14
	Vote Flip		Trump Vote
	9%	49.00%	49.07%	49.14%
	8%	48.56%	48.63%	48.70%
	7%	48.11%	48.18%	48.25%
	Vote Flip		Clinton vote
	9%	45.61%	45.54%	45.47%
	8%	46.06%	45.98%	45.91%
	7%	46.50%	46.43%	46.36%
	Vote Flip		Trump margin
	9%	4.79	4.99	5.19
	8%	3.53	3.73	3.93
	7%	2.27	2.47	2.67

 

University of Virginia Study: 20% of Trump Voters were former Obama Voters

Richard Charnin
April 29, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

University of Virginia Study: 20%  of 63 million Trump Voters were former Obama Voters

Larry Sabato is the founder and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.  http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/04/larry-sabato-20-trump-voters-former-obama-voters-video/

Sabato said: “This is the largest study of just Trump voters… The first thing that is perfectly clear is that Trump has lost almost none of his backers, which includes the soft Trump voters. He’s still got 92-93% of them supporting him. It’s also true he hasn’t gained many people from the other side. We live in a very polarized era… What I found fascinating, nobody else has identified this, 20% of Trump voters actually voted for Obama either in 2008 or in 2012 or in both years. In other words a fifth of his vote came from Obama voters”.

Based on 2012 and 2016 recorded votes,  approximately 18.6% (11.68 million) of  62.9 million Trump voters were returning Obama voters.

 

2012	Pct	Trump	Clinton	Other	TrumpVote
Obama	51.03%	16.8%	81.0%	2.2%	11.68
Romney	47.19%	78.0%	13.0%	9.0%	50.13
Other	1.70%	45.0%	43.0%	12.0%	1.04
New	0.08%	44.0%	46.0%	10.0%	0.05
Total	100%	46.18%	48.24%	5.58%	62.90
Votes	136.20	62.90	65.70	7.60

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/why-the-recorded-vote-and-unadjusted-exit-polls-are-wrong/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0

 

MY COMMENTS TO THE MSM ON THE RIGGING OF THE 2016 PRE-ELECTION POLLS

Richard Charnin
April 24, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The MSM just interviewed the authors of  Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign on the reasons for Clinton’s loss.  I commented to Chris Mathews and Brian Williams of MSNBC as well as FOX and CBS on how MSM pollsters rigged the pre-election polls for Clinton.

FYI: Your guests may not have looked at my 2016 Election model. It was based adjustments to final pre-election polls which were biased for Clinton. The Democratic Party-ID share was overstated at the expense of Independents who went solidly for Trump. In addition, there is strong evidence that votes were stolen from Jill Stein – by Clinton.

The 2016 Model projected Trump’s 306 RECORDED EV. But he actually had approximately 351 TRUE EV after adjusting for late undecided voters. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/2016-election-model-forecast/

Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
Recorded Vote Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote Model: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Note: I exactly forecast the RECORDED EV in the last three elections: 365, 332, 306. In each case the winner did better in the True Vote than the Recorded vote.

Here is the proof: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 

 

 

 

2016 Voter Turnout and Vote share Sensitivity Analysis: Trump won the Popular Vote

Richard Charnin
Mar. 15, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Trump wins all 25 scenarios over various combinations of voter turnout

Assumption
Party ID (registration) 38I-31D-27R
(Gallup voter affiliation survey average Nov.1-13,  2016)

1. Base Case Voter Turnout: Dem 65%, Rep 70%, Ind 70%
Trump 48.3-45.2% (4.2 million vote margin)

2. Worst Case Turnout: Dem 67%, Rep 68%, Ind 70%
Trump 47.6-45.9% (2.3 million vote margin)

3. Best Case Turnout: Dem 63%, Rep 72%, Ind 70%
Trump 49.1-44.5% (6.2 million vote margin)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=610568510

Reg Voter	Gallup	Base Case
Turnout	Voter Affil	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
70% Ind	38%	40%	50%	5%	5%
65% Dem	31%	88%	8%	1%	3%
70% Rep	27%	7%	89%	3%	1%
Vote share	100.0%	45.2%	48.3%	3.2%	3.2%
Votes	136.2	61.6	65.8	4.4	4.4
		Trump %
Dem		Rep Turnout
Turnout	68%	69%	70%	71%	72%
63%	48.3%	48.5%	48.7%	48.9%	49.1%
64%	48.2%	48.3%	48.5%	48.7%	48.9%
65%	48.0%	48.2%	48.3%	48.5%	48.7%
66%	47.8%	48.0%	48.2%	48.3%	48.5%
67%	47.6%	47.8%	48.0%	48.2%	48.3%
		Trump Vote
Dem		Rep Turnout
Turnout	68%	69%	70%	71%	72%
63%	65.9	66.1	66.3	66.6	66.8
64%	65.6	65.8	66.1	66.3	66.6
65%	65.4	65.6	65.8	66.1	66.3
66%	65.1	65.3	65.6	65.8	66.1
67%	64.9	65.1	65.3	65.6	65.8
		Clinton %
Dem		Rep Turnout
Turnout	68%	69%	70%	71%	72%
63%	45.2%	45.0%	44.9%	44.7%	44.5%
64%	45.4%	45.2%	45.1%	44.9%	44.7%
65%	45.6%	45.4%	45.2%	45.1%	44.9%
66%	45.8%	45.6%	45.4%	45.2%	45.1%
67%	45.9%	45.8%	45.6%	45.4%	45.2%
		Trump %	Margin
Dem		Rep Turnout
Turnout	68%	69%	70%	71%	72%
63%	3.1%	3.5%	3.8%	4.2%	4.5%
64%	2.8%	3.1%	3.5%	3.8%	4.2%
65%	2.4%	2.8%	3.1%	3.5%	3.8%
66%	2.0%	2.4%	2.7%	3.1%	3.4%
67%	1.7%	2.0%	2.4%	2.7%	3.1%
		Trump  Vote	Margin
Dem		Rep Turnout
Turnout	68%	69%	70%	71%	72%
63%	4.3	4.7	5.2	5.7	6.2
64%	3.8	4.2	4.7	5.2	5.7
65%	3.3	3.7	4.2	4.7	5.2
66%	2.8	3.3	3.7	4.2	4.7
67%	2.3	2.8	3.2	3.7	4.2

 

2016 True Vote Sensitivity analysis: illegal voters, uncounted votes, machine vote flipping

Richard Charnin
Updated Sept. 19, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.8 million. But the recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote due to election fraud.

There is evidence that millions of illegals probably voted in 2016. View this 1988-2016 trend analysis of Hispanic voter registration and turnout.

According to Greg Palast, least one million Democratic minority voters were disenfranchised via Crosscheck which eliminated voters with duplicate names from voter rolls. He claims that 7 million minority voters were disenfranchised.

There is evidence that  George Soros , a Clinton backer,  controls voting machines in 16 states.  Election analyst Bev Harris has posted Fraction Magic , an algorithm used to flip votes on Central tabulators.

Sensitivity analysis shows the effects of a range of assumptions on the vote count.

Let TV = True Vote; RV = Recorded vote
RV = TV + Fraud

Given the Recorded vote in millions:
Clinton 65.7, Trump 62.9, Other 7.6

Election fraud components:
-Vote flipping on maliciously coded, proprietary voting machines and central tabulators
-Illegal voters (non-citizens)
-Uncounted votes (spoiled ballots, disenfranchised voters)

Base Case Assumptions
Uncounted- 7 million: 85% for Clinton
Vote Flip- 5 million (net): 8% of Trump’s votes flipped to Clinton on voting machines and central tabulators. 
Illegals- 2 million: 85% for Clinton
Trump wins by 3.7 million: 68.7-64.9 (48.6-46.0%)

Sensitivity Analysis (assume 7 million uncounted, 85% for Clinton)
Worst case (7% flip, 80% of illegals to Clinton):  Trump wins by 2.3 million
Base case: (8%  flip, 85% of illegals to Clinton): Trump wins by 3.7 million
Best case: (9% flip, 90% of illegals to Clinton): Trump wins by 5.2 million

View the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/01/19/millennials-make-up-almost-half-of-latino-eligible-voters-in-2016/ph_election-2016_chap1-chart-08/

	Total	Clinton	Trump	Other
Recorded vote	136.22	65.72	62.89	7.61
		48.25%	46.17%	5.59%
Illegal	2.0	-1.7	-0.3	0
Uncounted	7.0	5.95	1.05	0
Vote Flip	5.0	-5.0	5.0	0
Adjusted	141.22	64.9	68.7	7.6
		46.0%	48.6%	5.4%
	7.0 uncounted	85% to Clinton
		Illegals to	Clinton
		80%	85%	90%
	Flip to Clinton		Trump Vote
	9%	69.20	69.30	69.40
	8%	68.57	68.67	68.77
	7%	67.94	68.04	68.14
	Vote Flip		Trump Vote
	9%	49.00%	49.07%	49.14%
	8%	48.56%	48.63%	48.70%
	7%	48.11%	48.18%	48.25%
	Vote Flip		Clinton vote
	9%	45.61%	45.54%	45.47%
	8%	46.06%	45.98%	45.91%
	7%	46.50%	46.43%	46.36%
	Vote Flip		Trump margin
	9%	4.79	4.99	5.19
	8%	3.53	3.73	3.93
	7%	2.27	2.47	2.67

 

Probability of exactly forecasting the electoral vote in the last three elections

Richard Charnin
Feb. 11, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

I was asked to calculate the probability of my exact forecast of the Electoral Vote in the last three elections (365,332,306). It was a combination of experience and luck. I do not expect to exactly forecast the EV in 2020.

My Track Record
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

Note that the following calculation is just an approximation.

Assume the following:
1) the probability of Obama winning in 2008 was 0.95; it was also 0.95 in 2012. The probability of Trump winning in 2016 was 0.05.
Therefore the probability of forecasting all three winners correctly is
P1 = 0.045 =.95*.95*.05

2) the winning EV is in the 270-370 range.
The probability of exactly forecasting the EV in a given election is 0.01. The probability of exactly forecasting the EV in all 3 elections is 1 in a million:
P2 =.000001 = 0.01*0.01*0.01

Therefore, the probability of forecasting the winner and the EV in the three elections is
P3 = P1*P2 = .045* 0.000001 or 1 in 22 million.

To put it another way, forecasting the electoral vote exactly in three successive elections would be expected to occur just once in 22 million elections (88 million years).