Analysis of 28 State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote vs. True Vote

Richard Charnin
Updated: Dec. 14, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Only 28 states were exit polled.  This analysis shows why the unadjusted exit polls are not plausible. Trump won the True Vote. 
a) He won Independents by  7.7% over Clinton.
b) Independents outnumbered Democrats by 6.7%.

Methodology
The state Party-ID crosstab (reported vote) is the basis for the analysis.
Exit Polls: Reported Party-ID weights. Independent vote shares adjusted to force a match to the total exit poll shares.

True Vote Calculation
State Party-ID is based on the Gallup National voter affiliation survey.
Method 1- Reported vote shares (CNN).
Method 2- Vote shares calculated in the Election Model.

Summary (28 states)
Unadjusted exit polls: Clinton leads 47.6-44.6% (unweighted average)
Party-ID: 35.1D – 32.7R – 32.2I (Dems outnumber Independents by 2.9%)
Share of Independents: Clinton 44.0-Trump 40.6% (not plausible)

Reported Vote (CNN)
Trump 47.3-46.7% (unweighted average)
Party-ID: 35.1D – 32.7R – 32.2I (Dems outnumber Independents by 2.9%)
Share of Independents: Trump 48.0-Clinton 40.3% (plausible)

True Vote
Model 1: Trump 46.7-46.0% (unweighted, reported vote shares)
Model 2: Trump 48.4-43.8% (unweighted, Election Model shares)
Party-ID: 32.0D – 29.3R – 38.7I (Independents outnumber Dems by 6.7%)

States Flipped from the Reported to the True Vote
True Vote 1:
Trump to Clinton: PA and FL (42 EV)
Clinton to Trump: VA NV NH CO (39 EV)
True Vote 2:
Trump to Clinton: PA
Clinton to Trump: VA NV NH MN ME CO …. WA OR NM

Notes:
-The model is probably wrong on WA and OR flipping to Trump.
-Trump leads 51.2-43.8% in the 22 states (and  D.C.) which were not polled.
-Clinton won NY and CA by at least 5 million votes, almost double her 2.7 national margin. Her True Vote margin in NY and CA is approximately 2.5 million.

The calculations are displayed as follows:
Unadjusted ….. Reported…..True Vote
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0

Link to TDMS Research exit poll table
http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

 

2016 Election Scenario Analysis

Richard Charnin
Nov. 23, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

This is an analysis of four election scenarios. 

1. Gallup Party-ID and True Vote Model (TVM) vote shares
2. Gallup Party-ID and National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares
3. NEP Party-ID and NEP vote shares
4. NEP Party-ID and TVM vote shares

It is a FACT: the Reported vote is NEVER equal to the True Vote. The pundits always brainwash the public into assuming that the Reported vote represents True voter intent. 

The National Exit Poll is always forced to match the Reported vote  (view Scenario 3).
NEP Party-ID is 36D-33R-31I.
Clinton leads Trump by 2.03 million votes: 47.7-46.2%.
Others (including Johnson and Stein) have just 6.1% combined. Stein has 1%.

The True Vote Model (Scenario 1) uses Gallup Party-ID: 40I-32D-28R.
Trump leads Clinton by 2.18 million votes: 45.7-44.0%.  How many of the Other 10.3% voted for Jill Stein? Surely more than 1%. Probably close to 5%.

It is clear that the third party vote is a key factor. Jill Stein had an implausibly low 1% share. Where did her votes go?  Compare Trump’s 2.18 million True Vote margin in Scenario 1, in which third parties had 10.3%, to his negative margins in scenarios 2 and 3 where third parties had 6-7%. The differential  indicates that Stein did better than 1%. Her votes were stolen.

Exit poll discrepancies: http://tdmsresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-Presidential-Election-Table_Nov-17.-2016.jpg

 True Vote Sensitivity Analysis: Calculate Trump’s vote margins over a range of his shares of Republicans and Independents.

1. Gallup/TVM	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Other
Dem	32%	89%	9%	2%
Rep	28%	7%	90%	3%
Ind	40%	34%	44%	22%
TVM Total	100%	44.0%	45.7%	10.3%
Votes (mil)	133.26	58.69	60.87	13.70
2. Gallup/NEP	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Other
Dem	32%	89%	8%	3%
Rep	28%	8%	88%	4%
Ind	40%	42%	46%	12%
Total	100%	47.5%	45.6%	6.9%
Votes (mil)	133.26	63.33	60.77	9.17
3. NEP/NEP	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Other
Dem	36%	89%	8%	3%
Rep	33%	8%	88%	4%
Ind	31%	42%	46%	12%
Total	100%	47.7%	46.2%	6.1%
Votes (mil)	133.26	63.57	61.54	8.16
4. NEP/TVM	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Other
Dem	36%	89%	9%	2%
Rep	33%	7%	90%	3%
Ind	31%	34%	44%	22%
Total	100%	44.9%	46.6%	8.5%
Votes (mil)	133.26	59.82	62.07	11.37

True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis

Scenario 1		Trump	% Rep
Trump	85.0%	87.0%	89.0%	91.0%	93.0%
% Ind			Trump
48%	46.2%	46.7%	47.3%	47.8%	48.4%
44%	44.6%	45.1%	45.7%	46.2%	46.8%
40%	43.0%	43.5%	44.1%	44.6%	45.2%
			Clinton
48%	43.6%	43.0%	42.4%	41.9%	41.3%
44%	45.2%	44.6%	44.0%	43.5%	42.9%
40%	46.8%	46.2%	45.6%	45.1%	44.5%
		Share	Margin
48%	2.6%	3.7%	4.8%	6.0%	7.1%
44%	-0.6%	0.5%	1.6%	2.8%	3.9%
40%	-3.8%	-2.7%	-1.6%	-0.4%	0.7%
		Vote (000)	Margin
48%	3.5	5.0	6.4	7.9	9.4
44%	-0.8	0.7	2.2	3.7	5.2
40%	-5.1	-3.6	-2.1	-0.6	0.9

Summary Comparison (based on Party-ID)

	Unadjusted Exit Poll		Reported Vote		True Vote
Vote	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Avg	48.4%	45.8%	46.1%	49.6%	44.6%	48.4%
Diff		-2.6%		3.5%		3.9%
OH	47.0%	47.1%	43.5%	52.1%	43.9%	51.4%
NC*	48.6%	46.5%	46.7%	50.5%	45.9%	46.6%
NJ	59.8%	35.8%	55.0%	41.8%	44.6%	46.4%
PA*	50.5%	46.1%	47.7%	48.8%	47.8%	45.8%
MI	46.8%	46.8%	47.5%	47.7%	45.3%	47.8%
MO	42.8%	51.2%	38.0%	57.1%	41.5%	51.7%
IA	44.1%	48.0%	42.2%	51.8%	41.1%	50.6%
FL *	47.7%	46.4%	47.8%	49.1%	45.9%	47.7%
WI *	48.2%	44.3%	46.9%	47.9%	48.2%	45.2%
		Share of	Indep-endents
	Unadjusted Exit Poll		Reported Vote		True Vote
	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Avg	47.3%	40.3%	39.2%	53.1%	36.1%	50.2%
Diff		-7.0%		13.9%		14.1%
OH	50.0%	34.0%	38.0%	52.0%	38.0%	52.0%
NC	44.0%	44.0%	38.5%	56.0%	35.0%	49.0%
NJ	67.0%	28.0%	51.0%	48.0%	36.0%	52.0%
PA	50.0%	43.0%	36.0%	56.0%	32.0%	53.0%
MI	32.0%	52.7%	35.0%	56.3%	45.0%	56.3%
MO	45.0%	40.0%	28.0%	62.0%	39.0%	45.0%
IA	42.0%	41.0%	35.0%	51.0%	35.0%	51.0%
FL	48.0%	43.0%	48.0%	50.5%	32.0%	53.0%
WI	48.0%	37.0%	43.0%	46.0%	43.0%	46.0%