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Summary of pre-election and exit poll anomalies

Richard Charnin
Jan. 10. 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Nine final pre-election polls
– Clinton won by 45.8-43.6%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV
– Democrats over-weighted: 39D-32R-29I ???
– Trump won Independents by 43.6-33.8% ***

Gallup voter affiliation survey: Independents a solid majority
Party-ID: 32D-28R-40I
– Trump won by 46.8-45.9%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV

28 unadjusted state exit polls
-Clinton won by 49.6-43.5%
-Clinton won by 297-241 EV
-Democrats over-weighted: 36D-33R-31I ???
-HRC won Independents by 44.0-41.3% ???

Final 28 state and national exit polls(forced to match recorded vote)
– Clinton won by 48.2-46.2%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV
– Democrats over-weighted: 36D-33R-31I ???
– Trump won Independents by just 46-42% ???
– Trump won late deciders from Oct.1 by 50-40% ***

23 states not exit polled
– Trump won by 50.4-43.7%

View the calculations:
href=”https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945

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Posted by on January 10, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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SUMMARY VOTE SHARE/ ELECTORAL VOTE ANALYSIS

Richard Charnin
Dec.20, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.8 million votes.  She won California by 4.27 million, New York by 1.7 million and Illinois by 945,000 votes – a total of 6.9 million.  Her margins in these states were implausible.  Trump won the other 48 states by 4.1 million.

The 28 unadjusted state exit polls are implausible. Trump won the True Vote. He won Independents by 7.7% over Clinton. Independents outnumbered Democrats by 6.7%.

Unadjusted Exit Polls
1-Use Party-ID from the CNN exit poll (matched to reported vote).
2-Independent vote shares adjusted to match the adj. exit poll.

CNN Exit Poll (Reported Vote)
Clinton Trump Trump EV
65,719 62,890 306
48.2% 46.2% (total reported vote)
49.3% 45.2% 224 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Unadjusted State Exit Polls (implausible)
Clinton Trump Trump EV
48.5% 44.8% 241
49.6% 43.6% 159 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

True Vote Model 1 (use state-adjusted Gallup National Party-ID)
Clinton Trump Trump EV
47.3% 46.5% 279
48.1% 45.6% 197 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

True Vote Model 2: Sensitivity Analysis (Gallup Party-ID)

Scenario 1: Undecided Voters to Trump: 50%
Clinton Trump Trump EV
45.1% 47.5% 306
45.5% 46.8% 224 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Scenario 2: Undecided Voters to Trump: 60%
Clinton Trump Trump EV
44.7% 47.9% 313
45.0% 47.3% 231 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Scenario 3: Undecided Voters to Trump: 70%
Clinton Trump Trump EV
44.3% 48.3% 342
44.5% 47.8% 260 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0

OHIO
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 34% 87% 12% 0% 1%
Rep 37% 8% 89% 2% 1%
Ind 29% 38% 52% 8% 2%
Calc 100% 43.6% 52.1% 3.1% 1.3%
Reported 99.3% 43.6% 51.7% 3.2% 0.8%
Votes 5,496 2,394 2,841 174 46
    Margin 447 8.1%  
Exit Poll Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 34% 87% 12% 0% 1%
Rep 37% 8% 89% 2% 1%
Ind 29% 50% 35% 8% 7%
Match 100% 47.0% 47.2% 3.1% 2.7%
Unadj.EP 100% 47.0% 47.1% 3.2% 2.7%
Votes 5,496 2,583 2,589 176 148
    Margin 5 0.1%
True Vote Gallup adj. Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 32.4% 87% 12% 0% 1%
Rep 33.4% 8% 89% 2% 1%
Ind 34.2% 38% 52% 8% 2%
TVM1 100.0% 43.9% 51.4% 3.4% 1.3%
95.1% 41.6% 46.7% 4.4% 2.4%
TVM 100% 43.6% 49.6% 4.0% 2.8%
Votes 5,496 2,396 2,729 220 152
    Margin 332 5.1%  
 
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Posted by on December 20, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Strange polls: Jill Stein at 1% and just 14% of respondents are Independents?

Richard Charnin
August 7, 2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primary spread sheet

Strange polls: Jill Stein at 1% and just 14% of respondents are Independents?

According to the Ipsos/Reuters poll,  only 14% of respondents were Independents and Jill Stein had just 2% of Independents. These results are implausible.

The latest Gallup Party-ID survey indicates that 42% are Independents, 28% Democrats and 28% Republicans. The 2-party shares:  60% Independents, 40% Democrats. http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Are we expected to believe that all of Sanders’ primary voters have gone to Clinton and Trump?  http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7324

Ipsos Pct Stein Clinton Trump Johnson
Ind 14% 2% 46% 46% 6%
Dem 47% 1% 81% 18% 0%
Rep 39% 1% 5% 80% 14%
Total 100% 1.14% 46.31% 46.22% 6.33%

If Stein matched Sanders’  primary shares of Independents and Democrats, she could win a fair election. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=610570359

Party-ID Gallup Survey Stein (est) Clinton (est) Trump (est) Johnson (est)
Ind 42% 45%  30% 10%  15%
Dem 29%  40% 50%  5% 5%
Rep 29% 5% 5% 80% 10%
Total 100% 31.95% 28.55% 28.85% 10.65%
Votes 129,106 41,249 36,860 37,247 13,750
Elect Vote 538 308 3 227 0

In the primaries (25 exit and 2 entrance polls) Bernie Sanders had  65% of Independents, but just 45.3% of the total vote. 

The 42I-28D-28R Gallup Party-ID survey equates to  60I-40D in the primaries. Using this split for the 27 adjusted exit polls, Clinton needed 83.4% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. The adjusted polls indicate that Sanders had 64.6% of Independents.

This is highly anomalous.  http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls

 

Exit Poll States Gallup Pct Sanders Clinton
IND 60.0% 64.6% 35.4%
Dem 40.0% 16.6% 83.4%
Recorded Match  100.0% 45.3% 54.7%
Recorded Vote 45.3% 54.7%

If  Sanders had 37% of Democrats, he would have had a total 53.6% share.

Exit Poll States Gallup Pct Sanders Clinton
IND 60.0% 64.6% 35.4%
Dem 40.0% 37.0% 63.0%
Est. True Vote 100.0% 53.6% 46.4%
Recorded 45.3% 54.7%

Jill Stein Polling Sensitivity analysis

Assuming Independents are 40% of the electorate, then for Jill Stein to have
5%(implausible), she needs 12% of Independents and 0% of Democrats and Republicans.
10%(conservative), she needs 17% of Independents and 5% of Democrats and Republicans.
20%(plausible), she needs 35% of Independents and 10% of Democrats and Republicans.
30%(optimistic), she needs 52% of Independents and 15% of Democrats and Republicans.

 

Sanders had  52% of Independents in the 11 RED states. Clinton needed an IMPLAUSIBLE 97% of Democrats to match the recorded vote.

Sanders had  an estimated 65% of Independents in the 40 BLUE/OTHER states. If he had 30% of Democrats, he would have had 51%.

 RED STATES Pct Sanders Clinton
IND 58.6% 52.0% 48.0%
 Req. to Match Dem 41.4% 3.0% 97.0%
Calc Match 100.0% 31.7% 68.3%
Recorded 31.7% 68.3%
OTHER STATES
IND 60.0% 65.0% 35.0%
Dem 40.0% 30.3% 69.8%
Calc Match 100.0% 51.1% 48.9%
Total Vote 51.1% 48.9%
 RED STATES 2-party Recorded 160
IND IND Sanders EV
AL 37.6% 57.6% 19.8% 9
AR 39.6% 57.5% 31.0% 6
FL 44.5% 59.3% 34.1% 29
GA 38.7% 55.7% 28.3% 16
LA 58.9% 73.4% 24.6% 8
MS 37.4% 55.5% 16.6% 6
NC 45.5% 58.0% 42.8% 15
SC 38.0% 55.2% 26.1% 9
TN 39.0% 58.5% 32.9% 11
TX 41.7% 58.8% 33.7% 38
VA 38.6% 55.0% 35.4% 13
avg 41.8% 58.6% 29.6%
Weighted Avg 42.0% 58.5% 31.7%
 
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Posted by on August 7, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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2016 Primary Exit Polls Party-ID: forcing a match to the recorded vote

2016 Primary Exit Polls Party-ID: forcing a match to the recorded vote

Richard Charnin
July 22, 2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

This  analysis seeks to determine an approximate True Vote in the 2016 Democratic primaries.

Clinton led the average of the adjusted exit polls (which were forced to match the recorded vote) by 56.4-43.6%. But there has been a significant increase in Independents tn National Party-ID statistics since 2014.

2014 National Party-ID: Dem 40.5 – Rep 35.2 – Ind 24.2%
2-party mix: Dem 62.6 – Ind 37.4%

Note the 19% increase in Independents since 2014:

2016 National Party-ID: Dem 32 -Rep 25 -Ind 43%
2-party mix: Ind 57.3- Dem 42.7%.

Gallup poll Party preference trend: http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

In the exit polled primaries, Sanders had a 51.3% True Vote and a 43.6% Recorded Vote.

The calculation of the True Vote differs from the Recorded Vote (adjusted Exit poll) in just one aspect: Independent and Democratic weights are based on the actual 2016 Party-ID mix in which independents comprise 57.3% and Democrats just 42.7% of the two-party mix. Sanders vote shares are unchanged.

In other words the True Vote assumes that no voters were disenfranchised and/or removed from the rolls.

The 2016  Party-ID  mix for each state is estimated by applying the equivalent proportional change from the 2014 National Party-ID to the 2016 National Party ID.

Let’s compare the the 2016 Party-ID effect on vote shares to the adjusted exit poll Party-ID weights  in three primaries: NY, MA, WI.

Candidate vote shares are held constant. The only difference between the adjusted exit poll (which was forced to match the recorded vote) and the True Vote  is the Party-ID mix. Sanders does significantly better when the 2016 Party-ID percentages are used.

View the exit polls here:
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/NY/Dem

View the spreadsheet calculations here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=610570359

NY Primary Exit poll matched to the recorded vote

Party ID Pct Clinton Sanders
Dem 83% 62% 38%
Ind 14% 28% 72%
Vote  97% 55.4% 41.6%
2-party  100% 57.1% 42.9%

NY True Vote

2016 PartyID Clinton Sanders
Dem 47% 62% 38%
Ind 53% 28% 72%
2-party 44.0% 56.0%

MA Primary Exit poll matched to the recorded vote

Party ID Pct Clinton Sanders
Dem 65% 60% 40%
Ind 33% 33% 66%
Vote   98% 49.9% 47.8%
2-party 100% 51.1% 48.9%

MA True Vote

2016 PartyID Clinton Sanders
Dem 30% 60% 40%
Ind 70% 33% 66%
2-party 41.2 58.8%

WI Primary Exit poll matched to the recorded vote

PartyID Clinton Sanders
Dem 71% 50% 50%
Ind 27% 28% 72%
Vote 43.1% 54.9%
2-party 43.9% 56.1%

WI True Vote

2016 PartyID Clinton Sanders
Dem 48% 50% 50%
Ind 52% 28% 72%
2-party 38.5% 61.5%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/pubchart?oid=244472232&format=image

 Sanders True Vote (2016 Party-ID) Exit Poll (Recorded)
AL 30.6% 19.8%
AR 39.8% 31.0%
CT 62.3% 47.4%
FL 44.1% 34.1%
GA 36.6% 28.3%
IA 60.1% 49.9%
IL 55.9% 49.1%
IN 61.4% 52.4%
MA 58.1% 49.3%
MD 40.0% 34.5%
MI 56.8% 50.8%
MO 56.9% 49.9%
MS 24.3% 16.6%
NC 48.1% 42.8%
NH 67.3% 61.4%
NV 58.5% 47.3%
NY 56.0% 42.1%
OH 51.9% 43.1%
OK 57.1% 55.5%
PA 54.0% 43.9%
SC 38.2% 26.1%
TN 42.4% 32.9%
TX 40.9% 33.7%
VA 45.0% 35.4%
VT 87.2% 86.3%
WI 61.5% 56.7%
WV 53.0% 51.4%

 

 
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Posted by on July 22, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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