# Tag Archives: 2016 presidential model

## 2016 Election Model: Stein vs. Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson

2016 Preliminary Election Model: Stein vs.Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson

Richard Charnin
July 27, 2016

The 2016 Election Model  indicates that  Green Party candidate Jill Stein can win a fraud-free election, based on a) recent Party-ID surveys and b) primary exit poll vote shares of Independents and Democrats.

The model assumes that Stein is on the ballot in every state. Various scenarios are displayed given  Party-ID assumptions and corresponding vote shares. It is not a forecast.

Statistical  evidence  based on manipulated voter rolls (strip),  impossible exit poll discrepancies (flip) and Wikileaks DNC e-mails suggest that Sanders easily won the True Vote in the primaries. The election was stolen in every way imaginable.

Base Case

The assumption is that Stein will win 45% of Independents, 35% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans.  This results in a 30.6% win  – and 318 electoral votes.

In 2014, the National Party ID split was: 41% Democratic, 35% Republican and 24% Independent.  In  the model, we assume the current 2016 split: 40% Independents, 32% Democratic and 28% Republicans.

Click this link to view the Gallup poll trend in Party affiliation: http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Calculation Methodology

1-2016 state Party-ID: based on the change from 2014 National Party ID to 2016.
Example 2014 Illinois Party ID: from 47D-35R-18I  to 37D-28R-35I
2-State vote shares: apply estimated National shares to the state Party-ID  mix.
3-Electoral Vote summed for each candidate.

BASE CASE

 Party-ID Pct Stein Clinton Trump Johnson Ind 40% 45% 25% 10% 20% Dem 32% 35% 50% 5% 10% Repub 28% 5% 5% 75% 15% Total 100% 30.6% 27.4% 26.6% 15.4% Votes 129,106 39,506 35,375 34,342 19,882 Elect Vote 538 318 11 209 0

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

What if Stein’s share of Democrats and Independents varies from the base case scenario?

The tables show Stein and Trump vote shares and corresponding margins for 25 scenarios: Stein gets 31-39% of Democrats and 40-50% of Independents. The Base Case is in the central cell of each table (Stein has 30.6%).

Stein wins 13 of the 15 scenarios.

 Stein % Dem Stein % 31.0% 33.0% 35.0% 37.0% 39.0% of Ind Stein 50% 31.3% 32.0% 32.6% 33.2% 33.9% 45% 29.3% 30.0% 30.6% 31.2% 31.9% 40% 27.3% 28.0% 28.6% 29.2% 29.9% Trump 50% 25.9% 25.2% 24.6% 24.0% 23.3% 45% 27.9% 27.2% 26.6% 26.0% 25.3% 40% 29.9% 29.2% 28.6% 28.0% 27.3% Stein Margin 50% 5.4% 6.7% 8.0% 9.3% 10.6% 45% 1.4% 2.7% 4.0% 5.3% 6.6% 40% -2.6% -1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 2.6% Stein Vote Margin (000) 50% 7,023 8,676 10,328 11,981 13,634 45% 1,859 3,512 5,164 6,817 8,469 40% -3,305 -1,653 0 1,653 3,305

Jill Stein Polling Sensitivity analysis

Assuming Independents are 40% of the electorate, then for Jill Stein to have

–  5%  (implausible), she needs 12% of Independents and 0% of Democrats and Republicans.

–  10% (conservative), she needs 17% of Independents and 5% of Democrats and Republicans.

–  20% (plausible), she needs 35% of Independents and 10% of Democrats and Republicans.

–  30% (optimistic), she needs 52% of Independents and 15% of Democrats and Republicans.

In the tables, Independents range from 10-40%

A Stein share of IND greater than 100% or less than zero is impossible (na)

 Stein Poll 30% Stein% 10% 20% 30% 40% of Dem + Rep Stein%  of IND 0% na na 100.0% 75.0% 5% na na 88.3% 67.5% 10% na na 76.7% 60.0% 15% na na 65.0% 52.5% Stein Poll 20% Stein% 10% 20% 30% 40% of Dem + Rep Stein % of IND 0% na na 66.7% 50.0% 5% na na 55.0% 42.5% 10% na 60.0% 43.3% 35.0% 15% 65.0% 40.0% 31.7% 27.5% Stein Poll 10% Stein% 10% 20% 30% 40% of Dem + Rep Stein% IND 0% na 50.0% 33.3% 25.0% 5% 55.0% 30.0% 21.7% 17.5% 10% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 15% na na na 2.5% Stein Poll 5% Stein% 10% 20% 30% 40% of Dem + Rep Stein% IND 0% 50.0% 25.0% 16.7% 12.5% 5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10% na na na na 15% na na na na