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Why the 2016 pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and recorded vote are all wrong

Richard Charnin
Dec.30, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The 2016 election was different in kind from prior elections; the Democrat was the establishment candidate. It was established beyond a reasonable doubt that the primaries were stolen from Bernie Sanders by the DNC which colluded with the media.

Some analysts claim that the 2016 unadjusted state exit polls prove that the election was rigged for Trump. But just because the polls were excellent indicators of the True Vote in the past does not prove that they were accurate in 2016. 

Are we supposed to believe that the MSM would not rig the unadjusted exit polls to match the rigged  pre-election polls  to make it appear that Clinton was the winner?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0
http://www.inquisitr.com/3692040/2016-presidential-polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-leading-battleground-states-win-lose/

Exit pollsters at  Edison Research never reveal the location of precincts, votes and survey results. The only way to prove that the unadjusted exit polls are correct (and the published results bogus) is 1) to reveal the complete exit poll timeline and the data for all precincts polled and 2) a True Vote analysis based on historical and current independent data.

True Vote analysis indicates that Trump won the popular and electoral vote and that pre-election and exit polls were rigged for Clinton by inflating Democratic Party-ID. True Vote Models were based on a) national Gallup Party-ID voter affiliation and b) returning 2012 voters.

As usual, state and national exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote. This was the first election in which the media discussed election fraud – but avoided the obvious U.S. suspects from prior elections and the rigged voting machines, illegal and disenfranchised voters. Now that the MSM finally admits election fraud, they blame it on the Russians! And don’t report the proven fact that the primary was rigged for Clinton.

Party-ID
Nine Pre-election polls (average): 28.8 Ind – 38.7 Dem- 31.9 Rep.
Final National Exit Poll (CNN): 31 Ind – 36 Dem – 33 Rep.
Gallup national voter affiliation survey: 40 Ind -32 Dem -28 Rep. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=505041111

Nine Pre-election polls 
Clinton won the average: 45.8-43.3%
Trump won the average Gallup-adjusted poll: 44.4-42.9%
Trump won Independents: 43.6-33.8%

Final  National Exit Poll (forced to match the Recorded Vote)
Clinton won the reported vote: 48.2-46.2%.
Clinton won the National Exit Poll: 47.7-46.2%.
Trump won Independents by just 46-42% – a 5.8% discrepancy from the pre-election polls which he led by 9.8%. This anomaly is additional evidence that Trump won the True Vote.

Unadjusted exit polls (28 states)
Clinton won the polls: 49.6-43.6%
Clinton won the corresponding recorded vote: 49.3-45.2%

States not exit polled
Trump won: 50.4-43.7%

True Vote
Trump led the True Vote Model (three scenarios of his share of late undecided voters)
– Scenario I:  47.5-45.1%, 306 EV (50% undecided)
– Scenario II: 47.9-44.7%, 321 EV (60% undecided)
– Scenario III: 48.3-44.3%, 351 EV (70% undecided)

The True Vote Model analysis based on a plausible number of returning voters from the prior election  confirmed the three scenarios: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/04/29/university-of-virginia-study-20-of-trump-voters-were-former-obama-voters/

The National Election Pool of six media giants funds exit pollster Edison Research. The published results are always forced to match the recorded vote which implies zero election fraud. But there is always election fraud.  Historically, unadjusted state and national exit polls always favored the Democratic candidate, but there was  a RED shift from the Democrat in the poll to the Republican in the recorded vote.

The True Vote Model indicates that the 1988-2008 unadjusted exit polls were accurate.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

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Posted by on December 30, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Implausible: the Ohio Unadjusted Exit Poll

Richard Charnin
Nov.12, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The  unadjusted 2016 exit polls show large discrepancies to the recorded vote in battleground states. This analysis compares the Ohio reported vote, the Edison Research unadjusted exit poll, the CNN adjusted poll (matched to the recorded vote) and the True Vote Model.

Clinton led the average of nine pre-election national polls by 45.8-43.3%.
Trump led Independents by 43.6-33.8%.

Trump won the OH  reported vote by 52.0-43.5%.  But  according to the CNN published exit poll, he won by just 47.1-47.0%. Does the discrepancy indicate that votes were rigged for Trump? Not at all, the evidence indicates that he won OH as reported.

The unadjusted exit poll discrepancies are largely due to the implausible difference between Trump and Clinton’s share of Independents. To match the CNN published exit poll, Clinton must have won the Independent vote by an implausible 50-34%.

OHIO
1: CNN exit poll. Implausible.
2012 Party-ID (41D-42R-17I)
Trump 47.1- Clinton 47.0%
Independents: Clinton 47-Trump 28% (implausible)

2: CNN exit poll. Implausible.
http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/ohio
2016 Party-ID (34D-37R-29I)
Trump 47.1- Clinton 47.0%
Independents: Clinton 50-Trump 34%  (implausible)

3:  OH reported vote. Plausible.
2016 Party-ID (34D-37R-29I)
Trump 52.1- Clinton 43.5%
Independents: Trump 51-Clinton 38% (plausible)

4: OH True Vote Model. Plausible.
Close match to the reported vote.
2016 Party-ID (32.4D-33.4R-34.2I)
Trump 46.7- Clinton 41.6% (before undecided voter allocation)
Trump 50.5- Clinton 42.9% (after undecided voter allocation)
Independents: Trump 43.9-Clinton 32.6% (plausible)

Ohio 2016        
1 CNN EP  Implausible      
2012 Party ID 2012 Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 41% 87% 12% 1%
Rep 42% 8% 89% 3%
Ind 17% 47% 28% 25%
Calc 100% 47.0% 47.1% 5.9%
Total 100% 47.0% 47.1% 5.9%
     Margin 0.1%  
2. CNN EP Implausible      
2016 Party ID 2016 Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 34% 87% 12% 1%
Rep 37% 8% 89% 3%
Ind 29% 50% 34% 16%
Calc 100% 47.0% 46.9% 6.1%
Total 100% 47.0% 47.1% 5.9%
     Margin 0.1%  
         
3. CNN Reported  Plausible      
 2016 Party ID Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 34% 87% 12% 1%
Rep 37% 8% 89% 3%
Ind 29% 38% 51% 11%
Calc 100% 43.6% 51.8% 4.6%
Reported  100% 43.5% 52.1% 4.4%
   Plausible Margin 8.2%  
       
4. True Vote Model Party ID  Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32.4% 89% 6% 5%
Rep 33.4% 5% 89% 6%
Ind 34.2% 32.6% 43.9% 6.6%
Calc 94.9% 41.6% 46.7% 6.6%
TVM after UVA  100% 42.9 50.5% 6.6%
 UVA:  Undecided  Voter Allocation  25% 75%   

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/ohio#president

Unadjusted exit polls: http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

2016-presidential-election-table_nov-10-2016

 
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Posted by on November 12, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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