# Tag Archives: 2016 Wisconsin primary

## A Preliminary Probability Analysis of the Wisconsin Primary

Richard Charnin
April 6, 2016
Updated: May 29

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll

This is a preliminary analysis of the   Wisconsin Democratic primary exit poll and recorded vote discrepancies.

Bernie Sanders had 563,127 votes (56.5%) and Hillary Clinton 429.738 (43.1%). But the 4:24 pm exit poll indicates that Bernie  did even better. The first 1100 respondents indicated that Sanders had 68% of the white vote. The Public Policy Polling (PPP) pre-election poll  indicated that Sanders was leading black voters by 51-40%.

The final adjusted CNN Exit Poll   indicates that white voters comprised  83% of the electorate (Sanders had  59%). The probability of the 9% decline from 68% to 59% is 1 in 4000. But Census tables showed that Whites comprise 92% of the Wisconsin electorate. I split the difference and assumed 88% were whites. Blacks  comprised 10% of the vote (Sanders had 31%) .

Assuming  Sanders had  31% of the non-white vote, he won WI by  63.6-36.4%.

Why the 20% decline in Sanders 51% pre-election poll share of blacks? Why the 9% decline in Sanders 68%  exit poll share of whites? The probabilities of the discrepancies are way beyond the  margin of error.

The poll shows that 7% of voters were Latino (3%), Asian (2%), Other (2%). But the vote shares are NA.  Why are vote shares not available for 124 (7%) minority respondents?Was it because their respective turnout rates were too low? The pollsters could have combined the 7% as Other Non-whites. Apparently they used the same vote shares for the 7% as they did for blacks in matching the recorded vote.

The CNN final exit poll (1774 respondents) is shown in this spreadsheet.  Vote shares are calculated for each category.  It is standard operating procedure to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote in all categories  by adjusting  the voter turnout percentages and/or the vote shares.

Who still believes that in Wisconsin, the recorded vote represents the true vote?

 Gender Pct Clinton Sanders Other Men 43.0% 35.0% 64.0% 1.0% Women 57.0% 49.0% 50.0% 1.0% Total 100.0% 43.0% 56.0% 1.0% Age Pct Clinton Sanders Other 18-29 19.0% 18.0% 82.0% 0.0% 30-44 24.0% 33.0% 66.0% 1.0% 45-64 39.0% 54.0% 46.0% 0.0% 65+ 18.0% 62.0% 37.0% 1.0% Total 100.0% 43.6% 56.0% 0.4%

Assume vote shares of Latino, Asian, Other  non-white groups are equal to the Blacks

 Race Pct Clinton Sanders Other White 83.0% 40.0% 59.0% 1.0% Black 10.0% 69.0% 31.0% 0.0% Latino (na) 3.0% 69.0% 31.0% 0.0% Asian (na) 2.0% 69.0% 31.0% 0.0% Other (na) 2.0% 69.0% 31.0% 0.0% Total 100.0% 44.9% 54.2% 0.9%

Given  a) the 7.9% discrepancy between Sanders’ 56.7% recorded 2-party vote share and his estimated 64.6% exit poll share, and b) assuming a 3.0% exit poll margin of error, there is a 95% probability  that his True share was in the range 62-68%. The probability is 97.5%  that he had at least 62%.

The probability of the 7.9% discrepancy between Sanders’ estimated 64.6% poll and 56.9% vote share is P= 1.14E-07 or 1 in 8.7 million.

The sensitivity analysis shows Sanders vote share for increments   around his base case shares of whites and non-whites.

Sanders had 61.4% in the worst case scenario, assuming he had 65% of whites and 35% of non-whites. He had 67.9% in the best case scenario, assuming he had 71% of whites and 45% of non-whites.

Base Case

 Race Pct Sanders Clinton White 88.0% 68.0% 32.0% Non-white 12.0% 40.0% 60.0% TOTAL 100.0% 64.6% 35.4%

The sensitivity analysis matrix shows Sanders vote shares for various increments  around his base case shares of white (68%) and non-white voters (40%). He had 64.6% in the base case.

Bernie had 55.6% in the worst case (recorded vote) scenario (59% of whites and 31% of non-whites). He had 68.8% in the best case  (72% of whites and 45% of non-whites).

Sanders % White voters

 Sanders 59.0% 64.0% 68.0% 72.0% % Non-white Sanders Total% 45.0% 57.3% 61.7% 65.2% 68.8% 40.0% 56.7% 61.1% 64.6% 68.2% 35.0% 56.1% 60.5% 64.0% 67.6% 31.0% 55.6% 60.0% 63.6%  (base) 67.1%