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AZ Senate vs Governor: a major discrepancy

Richard Charnin
Nov. 26, 2018

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AZ Senate vs Governor: a major discrepancy

Republican Governor Ducey won by 337,000 votes.
Democrat Senator Sinema won by 56,000 votes.

McSally (R) led in early voting by 475k-365k (56.5-43.5%).
Sinema needed 826k (55.6%) of 1486k votes on Election Day to match her 50.6% share.

In Maricopa County (Phoenix), McSally led in early voting by 302k-216k (58.3-41.7%) but Sinema won the county 659k-611k (51.9-48.1%) – a 134k vote(12.8%) decline from McSally’s early margin.

Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
The recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote.

Check Party ID and the vote shares
Did McSally win the True Vote?
I smell a rat.

National Exit Poll 
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/national-results
Dems win 53.3-45.1% (9.2 million votes)

Gov Exit Poll -Party ID
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona
Ducey (R) wins by 337,000 votes

Senate Exit Poll -Party ID
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate
Sinema (D) wins by 56,000 votes

True Vote estimate 1
Turnout based on voter registration and plausible vote shares
McSally wins by 65,000 votes

True Vote estimate 2
Turnout based on Exit Poll Party ID and plausible vote shares
McSally wins by 130,000 votes

Sensitivity Analysis
McSally vote share, margins and win probability scenarios

Early ballots 
GOP led by 475,000-365,000 votes (53.3-44.5%)
Sinema needed 826,000 (55.6%) of 1,486,000 Election Day ballots
to match the recorded vote.

NEP Party ID Democrats Republicans Other
Dem 37% 95% 4% 1%
Rep 33% 6% 94% 0
Ind 30% 54% 42% 4%
Total 100% 53.3% 45.1% 1.6%
111,478 59,451 50,276 1,750
AZ Gov Party ID Garcia Ducey Other
Dem 31% 85% 14% 1%
Rep 38% 5% 95% N/A
Ind 31% 45% 52% 3%
Match 100.0% 42.2% 56.6% 1.2%
Vote 2354 994 1331 29.18
100.0% 41.8% 56.0% 2.2%
Margin 337
Recorded Reg Sinema McSally Other
Dem 31% 97% 3% 0%
Rep 38% 12% 85% 3%
Ind 31% 50% 47% 3%
Total 100.0% 50.1% 47.8% 2.1%
Vote 2366 1186 1131 49
Margin -55
Sensitivity McSally%Dem
McSally%Rep 3% 5% 7% 9%
 Vote Share
90% 49.7% 50.3% 50.9% 51.6%
89% 49.3% 49.9% 50.6% 51.2%
88% 48.9% 49.6% 50.2% 50.8%
87% 48.6% 49.2% 49.8% 50.4%
86% 48.2% 48.8% 49.4% 50.0%
85% 47.8% recorded 48.4% 49.0% 49.7%
Margin (000)
90% 35 64 93 123
89% 17 46 75 105
88% -1 28 57 87
87% -19 10 40 69
86% -37 -8 22 51
85% -55 recorded -26 4 33
Win Prob
90% 64.3% 78.2% 88.3% 94.5%
89% 54.5% 70.0% 82.6% 91.1%
88% 44.4% 60.7% 75.3% 86.4%
87% 34.7% 50.8% 66.7% 80.1%
86% 26.0% 40.8% 57.1% 72.3%
85% 18.5% recorded 31.4% 47.1% 63.3%
Candidate Recorded Vote Pct Early vote Chg votes Eday Votes Required
Sinema 1,191,100 50.6% 365,469 825,631 55.58%
McSally 1,135,200 47.6% 475,372 659,828 44.42%
Green (withdrawn) 57,442 1.8% 256,737 -199,295 -15.50%
Total votes 2,383,741 100.00% 1,097,578 1,286,163 100.00%

 McSally change in share  from early to final vote

County Early share Final share Margin Change
Apache 36.3% 32.4% -6,896
Cochise 58.9% 61.0% 6,808
Coconino 41.5% 36.0% -12,292
Gila 64.9% 61.5% 1,863
Graham 66.5% 67.1% 2,206
Greenlee 40.7% 57.6% 567
LaPaz 73.6% 66.6% 671
Maricopa 58.3% 48.1% -134,453
Mohave 74.2% 72.3% 17,831
Navajo 58.3% 53.0% 374
Pima 44.5% 42.4% -37,720
Pinal 61.6% 56.1% 5,839
Santa Cruz 28.5% 29.3% -3,466
Yavapai 70.0% 61.9% 10,463
Yuma 58.0% 53.2% 295
Total 56.5% 49.1% -147,910

County Graph

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTvZppVule4a_07xPErlSU-yVsOC-otyIakWvE9_9CQp5K55Vkqcefjsr0J9_EyRk5TyTWLHTccQeKR/pubchart?oid=672043111&format=interactive

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Posted by on November 26, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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