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2018 Generic Ballot Scenarios

Richard Charnin
9/25/2018

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2018 Generic Ballot Scenarios

Real Clear Politics: Democrats lead 48.7-41.2%
Given: Gallup voter affiliation 28R-27D-45I
2016 Census: Total Registered Voters = 157,596,000
The RCP 7.5% Dem margin requires a 56-40% Dem lead in registered voter turnout

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

Generic Poll Model Row 132: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1619968863

Assume equal 40% Dem, Rep, Ind turnout
Result: Republicans win Generic vote 45.05-44.62%

The RCP 7.5% Dem margin requires a 56-40% Dem lead in registered voter turnout

Turnout 2018 Party-ID Turnout/ Reg % Turnout Rep Dem Other
Rep 28% 40% 17651 86% 7% 7%
Dem 27% 40% 17020 6% 88% 6%
Ind 45% 40% 28367 43% 42% 15%
Total 100% 40.00% 45.05% 44.62% 10.33%
Votes 63,038 28,399 28,128 6,512
Rep Ind Dem Turnout Total Turnout Rep Dem Other
40% 40% 40% 40.00% 45.05% 44.62% 10.33%
40% 40% 41% 40.27% 44.79% 44.91% 10.30%
40% 40% 42% 40.54% 44.53% 45.20% 10.27%
40% 40% 43% 40.81% 44.27% 45.48% 10.24%
40% 40% 44% 41.08% 44.02% 45.76% 10.22%
40% 40% 45% 41.35% 43.78% 46.04% 10.19%
Votes 65,166 28,526 30,000 6,640
40% 40% 56% 44.32% 41.24% 48.85% 9.91%
Votes 69,847 28,807 34,119 6,920

Historical Turnout
http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present

 

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Posted by on September 25, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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