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10/29/18 Generic Vote Forecast Model vs. RCP average

Richard Charnin
Oct.29, 2018
Nov.4 update

GOP House Forecast: 230R – 205D? It’s possible.

According to Real Clear Politics: 32 of 38 House seats that are currently too close to call are Republican. The GOP has 195 safe so they need 23 seats to win the House with 218, even assuming they lose all 6 Democratic seats that are too close to call.

Assuming the polls are media-biased for the Democrats and the GOP retains all 32 seats, they will have AT LEAST a 227-208 House majority. Maybe 230-205 if they pick up 3 Dem too close to call seats. And that is a RED WAVE.

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10/29/18 Generic Vote Forecast Model vs. RCP average

Assuming the 2-party Base Case forecast (50.9R-49.1D), the Repubs will keep the House by approximately 230-205 seats.

Note: The Dems need an approximate 58D-40R% lead in registered voter turnout to match the current RCP Generic Poll average (49.5D-41.9R). This is impossible.

Model Base Case Assumptions (2-party):
1) Latest Gallup % voter affiliation: 27R-28D-45I
2) Reg voter Turnout: 48% of Repub, 46% Dems, 44% Ind
3) Independents: Repubs win 52-48%
4) Equal 92-8% vote shares

Party-ID Turnout % Registered Turnout Rep Dem
Rep 27% 48% 20424 92% 8%
Dem 28% 46% 20298 8% 92%
Ind 45% 44% 31204 52% 48%
Total 100% 45.6% —- 50.94% 49.06%
Votes 71,927 36,640 35,286
Turnout scenarios
Rep Dem Ind Total Rep Dem
48% 46% 44% 45.6% 50.94% 49.06%
49% 45% 45% 46.1% 51.45% 48.55%
50% 44% 46% 46.5% 51.96% 48.04%
51% 43% 47% 47.0% 52.45% 47.55%
52% 42% 48% 47.4% 52.93% 47.07%
53% 41% 49% 47.8% 53.41% 46.59%
Required to match RCP
40% 58% 40% 45.0% 45.73% 54.27%
Generic Poll RCP Average House seats
Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep
2016 46 45.4 48 49.1 194 241
2014 43.2 45.6 45.2 51.4 188 247
2012 47.3 47.5 49.2 48 201 234
Average 45.5 46.2 47.5 49.5 194 241

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=210218497

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

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Posted by on October 29, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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