Richard Charnin
Nov. 21, 2018
The Repubs led by 4% in each of 4 districts which flipped to the Dems. The win probability was 85% in each of the districts (4.0% margin of error).
The Dems led by 203-194 seats on Election Day with 38 tossups. On Nov. 21, the Dems won the House by 235-200, winning 32 of 38 tossups – a 1 in 100,000 probability. An even 19-19 split of the tossups would have resulted in a 222-213 Dem win. Then the GOP would need just five additional seats to win the House.
……………….Poll………………Vote
……………Dem Rep ….. Dem Rep Margin
CA10……. 47 45 -2…… 50.9 49.1 -1.8
CA25……. 44 48 4…… 51.7 48.3 -3.4
CA39……. 48 52 4…… 50.5 49.5 -1.0
Cisneros vs. Kim (R) vote change from Election Day to 11/16
CA45……. 46 50 4…… 50.8 49.2 -1.6
CA48……. 44 48 4…… 52.0 48.0 -4.0 Rohrabacher (R) lost after 30 years in Congress
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
The Democrats had 300,000 more votes in Orange County Congressional races than for Democrat governor Gavin Newsom. https://web.archive.org/web/20181119210758/https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/11/voter-fraud-orange-county-numbers-dont-add-up-democrats-had-300000-more-votes-for-congressional-seats-than-for-governor/
Tip of the iceberg?
“Prosecutors have charged nine people with a dozen felony counts for allegedly offering money and cigarettes to homeless people on Skid Row in exchange for false and forged signatures on ballot petitions and voter registration forms, the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office announced today”.
Click to access 112018_Nine_Charged_in_Large_Scale_Voter_Fraud_Scheme_on_Skid_Row.pdf
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