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Repub California House races too close to call flipped to the Dems

Richard Charnin
Nov. 21, 2018

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The Repubs led by 4% in each of 4 districts which flipped to the Dems. The win probability was 85% in each of the districts (4.0% margin of error).

The Dems led by 203-194 seats on Election Day with 38 tossups. On Nov. 21, the Dems won the House by 235-200, winning 32 of 38 tossups – a 1 in 100,000 probability. An even 19-19 split of the  tossups would have resulted in a 222-213 Dem win. Then the GOP  would need just five additional seats to win the House.

……………….Poll………………Vote
……………Dem Rep ….. Dem Rep Margin
CA10……. 47 45  -2…… 50.9 49.1  -1.8
CA25……. 44 48   4…… 51.7 48.3  -3.4

CA39……. 48 52   4…… 50.5 49.5  -1.0
Cisneros vs. Kim (R) vote change from Election Day to 11/16

CA45……. 46 50   4…… 50.8 49.2  -1.6
CA48……. 44 48   4…… 52.0 48.0  -4.0 Rohrabacher (R) lost after 30 years in Congress

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

The Democrats had 300,000 more votes in Orange County Congressional races than for Democrat governor Gavin Newsom. https://web.archive.org/web/20181119210758/https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/11/voter-fraud-orange-county-numbers-dont-add-up-democrats-had-300000-more-votes-for-congressional-seats-than-for-governor/

Tip of the iceberg?
“Prosecutors have charged nine people with a dozen felony counts for allegedly offering money and cigarettes to homeless people on Skid Row in exchange for false and forged signatures on ballot petitions and voter registration forms, the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office announced today”.
http://da.co.la.ca.us/sites/default/files/press/112018_Nine_Charged_in_Large_Scale_Voter_Fraud_Scheme_on_Skid_Row.pdf

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Posted by on November 21, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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