# Tag Archives: 2018 House election probability analysis

## 2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2018

According to Real Clear Politics, there was a 203D-194R split on Election Day. There were 38 tossups. The Dems lead 235-199 with the NC-9 race disputed. The GOP won the race by 50.8-48.6% (4000+ votes) on Sept.10, 2019

The probability that the Dems would win 32 of 37 tossups is
P= 1 in 315,300 = binomdist (32, 37, 0.5, false)

Of the 38 tossups, 33 were  Repub-held. We would normally expect a tossup split of 19 Dems and 19 Repubs which would result in a 222D-213R House.

The Democrats led in 203 (51.1%) of 397 seats. They won 32 (86.4%) of the remaining 37 tossups.

Of the 15 seats which leaned to the  Dems, 11 were Repub-held. Assuming a 19D-19R tossup split, the Repubs needed 5 of the 15 to win the House (218=194+19+5).

The recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote. There are vote miscounts in every election, especially in close races within the MoE.

Given a 203D-194R split on Election Day, the following  table displays Democrat win probabilities.

 X= Dem tossup win Total Dem seats Prob (X) 1 in 12 215 1.35% 74.2 13 216 2.59% 38.6 14 217 4.44% 22.5 15 218 6.81% 14.7 16 219 9.37% 10.7 17 220 11.57% 8.6 18 221 12.86% 7.8 19 222 12.86% 7.8 20 223 11.57% 8.6 21 224 9.37% 10.7 22 225 6.81% 14.7 23 226 4.44% 22.5 24 227 2.59% 39 25 228 1.35% 74 26 229 0.62% 161 27 230 0.25% 395 28 231 0.09% 1,105 29 232 0.03% 3,560 30 233 0.01% 13,349 31 234 0.017% 59,119 32 235 0.0003% 315,301

2018 MIDTERMS POSTS