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2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2018

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2018 House: Probability Analysis Indicates Fraud

According to Real Clear Politics, there was  a 203D-194R split on Election Day. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

The Dems won 32 of 38 of tossup elections.  The probability is P= 1 in 99,569.
P = binomdist (32, 38, 0.5, false) = 0.001%  (1 in 99,569)

The Democrats led in 203 (51.1%) of 397 seats. They won 32 (84.2%) of the remaining 38 tossups. Note that 51.1% of 38= 19.4. 

Of the 38 tossups, 33 were  Repub-held. We would normally expect an even tossup split: 19 Dems and 19 Repubs. That would result in a 222D-213R House. 

Of the 15 seats which leaned to the  Dems, 11 were Repub-held. Assuming a 19D-19R tossup split, the Repubs needed 5 of the 15 to win the House (218=194+19+5).

The recorded vote is never the same as the True Vote. There are vote miscounts in every election, especially in close races within the MoE.

Given 203D-194R on Election Day, the following  table displays Democrat win probabilities assuming a 50/50 and  50.5D-49.5R split in the 38 tossups.

50.0D-50.0R 50.5D-49.5R
X=Dem seats Prob (X) 1 in Prob (X) 1 in
215 1.0% 101 0.9% 117
216 2.0% 50 1.7% 57
217 3.5% 28 3.2% 31
218 5.6% 18 5.2% 19
219 8.1% 12 7.6% 13
220 10.5% 9.6 10.0% 10
221 12.2% 8.2 12.0% 8.4
222 expected 12.9% 7.8 12.8% 7.8
223 12.2% 8.2 12.4% 8.0
224 10.5% 10 10.9% 9.2
225 8.1% 12 8.6% 11.7
226 5.6% 18 6.1% 16.4
227 3.5% 28 3.9% 25
228 2.0% 51 2.2% 45
229 1.0% 102 1.1% 88
230 0.4% 228 0.5% 195
231 0.2% 581 0.2% 486
232 0.1% 1,686 0.1% 1,383
233 0.0178% 5,621 0.021% 4,519
234 0.0046% 21,781 0.0058% 17,165
235 actual 0.0010% 99,569 0.0013% 76,918
236 0.0002% 547,629 0.0001% 414,672
237 0.00003% 3,723,876 0.000036% 2,763,934
238 0.000003% 32,583,915 0.000004% 23,705,526

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTvZppVule4a_07xPErlSU-yVsOC-otyIakWvE9_9CQp5K55Vkqcefjsr0J9_EyRk5TyTWLHTccQeKR/pubchart?oid=1371017998&format=interactive

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=1032811684

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2018/house/
https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/house/

The MSM, CNN and LA Times admitted the GOP could keep the House in a Red Tsunami
http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/msm-red-tsunami/?fbclid=IwAR0C43VxE9xy7HPybwzd_cIBKdcTjDXh5f-UGB9-zD7icp-aGMIB9DTo_Dk

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Posted by on November 11, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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