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GOP House Forecast: 230R – 205D Red Wave?

Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2018

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GOP House Forecast: 230R – 205D? It’s possible.
And the GOP should win the Senate by at least 54-46 seats.

According to Real Clear Politics: 32 of 38 House seats that are currently too close to call are Republican. The GOP has 195 safe so they need 23 of 32 GOP seats to win the House with 218, even assuming they lose all 6 Democratic seats that are too close to call.

Assuming the polls are media-biased for the Democrats and the GOP retains all 32 seats, they will have a 227-208 majority. Maybe 230-205 if they pick up 3 Dem seats that are too close to call.

And that is a RED WAVE.

Assuming the 2-party Base Case forecast (50.9R-49.1D), the Repubs will keep the House by approximately 230-205 seats.

Note: The Dems need an approximate 58D-40R% lead in registered voter turnout to match the current RCP Generic Poll average (49.5D-41.9R). This is impossible.

Model Base Case Assumptions (2-party):
1) Latest Gallup % voter affiliation: 27R-28D-45I
2) Reg voter Turnout: 48% of Repub, 46% Dems, 44% Ind
3) Independents: Repubs win 52-48%
4) Equal 92-8% vote shares

Party-ID Turnout Repub Dem
Rep 27% 48% 92% 8%
Dem 28% 46% 8% 92%
Ind 45% 44% 52% 48%
Total 100% 45.6% 50.94% 49.06%
Votes 36,640 35,286
Turnout 
Vote
Rep Dem Ind Total Rep Dem
48% 46% 44% 45.6% 50.94% 49.06%
49% 45% 45% 46.1% 51.45% 48.55%
50% 44% 46% 46.5% 51.96% 48.04%
51% 43% 47% 47.0% 52.45% 47.55%
52% 42% 48% 47.4% 52.93% 47.07%
53% 41% 49% 47.8% 53.41% 46.59%
Generic Poll RCP Average House seats
Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep
2016 46 45.4 48 49.1 194 241
2014 43.2 45.6 45.2 51.4 188 247
2012 47.3 47.5 49.2 48 201 234
Average 45.5 46.2 47.5 49.5 194 241

Nate Silver calculates an 85% probability the Dems will win the House – if they win the popular vote by at least 5.7%.

Nate bases his calculation on the latest polls from Real Clear Politics which show the Dems winning 202 seats and the Repubs 196 with 37 too close to call.

As usual, Nate makes the simplistic assumption that the polls accurately reflect voter intent. And as always, he avoids mentioning the fraud factor.

Assuming the Repubs have 196 seats, then the probability P that they will win AT LEAST 22 of 37 races that are too close to call and win 218 seats is 1 in 6.
P= 16.2% = 1-BINOMDIST(21,37,0.5,true).

But…given the latest Gallup voter affiliation survey and assuming equal vote shares below, the Dems would need at least 56% registered voter turnout compared to just 46% for the Repubs to win by 52.86-47.14%. Anything less than a 10% Dem turnout edge means the Repubs would win the House.

So the question Nate must answer is this: is it logical to assume that the Democratic turnout rate would be 10% greater than the Repubs? I don’t think so. If anything, the Repubs are more motivated.

Gallup Party-ID Turnout Votes Rep Dem
Rep 27% 46% 19573 92% 8%
Dem 28% 56% 24711 8% 92%
Ind 45% 44% 31204 50% 50%
Total 100% 47.9% 47.14% 52.86%
Votes 75,488 35,586 39,902

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

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Posted by on November 5, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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