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2017 Alabama True Vote: 75% turnout of Clinton voters but only 45% of Trump voters?

Richard Charnin
Dec.14, 2017

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS

2017 Alabama Senate True Vote Model

In 2016, Trump won the state by 589,000 votes: 62.08-34.36%.
There were 2,123,372 total recorded votes.

In the Senate election, Jones won by 20,715 votes: 49.9-48.4% .
There were 1,344,438 total recorded votes.

Returning 2016 Voter Turnout 

Did 75% of Clinton and 45% of Trump voters return in 2017?
That’s what was required to match the recorded vote.

Clinton Trump Moore margin
75%.. 45%.. -20,715 Recorded vote
70%.. 50%.. 70,577 True Vote Model base case
65%.. 55%.. 161,011
60%.. 60%.. 251,446 Equal turnout

True Vote Model: Use identical exit poll recorded vote shares of returning and new voters, but adjust 2016 voter turnout to 70% Clinton and 50% Trump.

Sensitivity Analysis
Base case scenario: Moore has 4% of Clinton and 92% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 51.8-46.5% (71,000 votes)

Worst case scenario: Moore has 2% of Clinton and 90% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 50.1-48.3% (24,000 votes)

Best case scenario: Moore has 6% of Clinton and 94% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 53.5-44.8% (117,000 votes)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YoXVkz6KGUoMzEDJBxwROEaukSkgqWVHX3qy_lBxIgc/edit#gid=1736734781

https://www.scribd.com/document/367999441/Moore-Voter-Fraud-Complaint

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.8906eed4d60f

Recorded vote match: Returning voter turnout: Clinton 75%; Trump 45% 

2016  2017 Returning  Vote
Turnout Voters Pct Jones Moore Oth
Clinton 75% 541,761 40.3% 96.0% 4.0% 0%
Trump 45% 587,210 43.7% 7.0% 92.0% 1%
Other 60% 44,927 3.3% 47.0% 24.0% 29%
DNV (new) 170,539 12.7% 52.0% 46.0% 2%
 Total 1,344,438  100% 49.91% 48.43% 1.66%
 Votes   671,151 650,436 22,811
 Recorded     49.92% 48.38% 1.70%

2016 Returning voter turnout: Clinton 70%; Trump 50% 

 2017 Returning    
2016 Turnout Voters  Pct Jones Moore Other
Clinton 70% 505,644 37.6% 96.0% 4.0% 0.0%
Trump 50% 652,456 48.5% 7.0% 92.0% 1.0%
Other 60% 44,927 3.3% 47.0% 24.0% 29.0%
DNV(new) 141,411 10.5% 52.0% 46.0% 2.0%
 Total 63.32% 1,344,438  True Vote 46.54% 51.79% 1.66%
 Votes 1,344,438 625,740 696,317 22,382
 Recorded 49.92% 48.38% 1.70%
True Vote 
 Sensitivity Analysis
Moore% Clinton
Moore 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
% Trump Moore
94% 52.0% 52.4% 52.8% 53.1% 53.5%
93% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7% 53.0%
92% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8% 52.2% 52.5%
91% 50.6% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 52.1%
90% 50.1% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6%
Jones
94% 46.3% 45.9% 45.6% 45.2% 44.8%
93% 46.8% 46.4% 46.1% 45.7% 45.3%
92% 47.3% 46.9% 46.5% 46.2% 45.8%
91% 47.8% 47.4% 47.0% 46.7% 46.3%
90% 48.3% 47.9% 47.5% 47.1% 46.8%
Moore  margin
94% 5.7% 6.4% 7.2% 7.9% 8.7%
93% 4.7% 5.5% 6.2% 7.0% 7.7%
92% 3.7% 4.5% 5.2% 6.0% 6.8%
91% 2.8% 3.5% 4.3% 5.0% 5.8%
90% 1.8% 2.6% 3.3% 4.1% 4.8%
Moore margin (000)
94% 76 87 97 107 117
93% 63 74 84 94 104
92% 50 60 71 81 91
91% 37 47 58 68 78
90% 24 34 44 55 65

 

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