# Tag Archives: caucuses

## Democratic Primary True Vote Model: Sanders has 52%

Democratic Primaries True Vote Model: Bernie has 52%

Richard Charnin
Updated: July 21, 2016

This model estimates Sanders’ True Vote. The base case estimate is that Sanders had 52% of the total vote in primaries and caucuses.

It is important to note that Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his
1) recorded share  in 24 of the 26 primaries. The probability is 1 in 190,000.
2) recorded share by greater than the margin of error in 11 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion.

Is the exit poll shift to Clinton just pure luck? Or is something else going on?

TRUE VOTE MODEL BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS

1.Sanders won the caucuses with 63.9%
2.  10% of voters  were disenfranchised  (voter rolls, provisional ballots, etc.) .
3. Sanders won 70% of uncounted votes
4. 15% of Sanders’ votes flipped to Clinton.

Sensitivity analysis tables display the effects of  flipped votes and uncounted provisional ballots  over a range of assumptions.

 Sanders NATIONAL VOTE Sensitivity Uncounted Ballots 70% of Uncounted Votes to Sanders 5% 10% 15% Machine counted Votes Flipped to Sanders Sanders Total Share 20% 51.7% 52.5% 53.2% 15% 51.2% 51.88% 52.6% 10% 50.6% 51.3% 52.0%

CALIFORNIA

Assuming a) 30% of California voters were disenfranchised, b) Sanders had 75% of provisional ballots, c) 10% of votes were flipped,  Sanders won CA with a 55% share.

On Election Day, Clinton led Sanders 56.4-43.6%.  Sanders leads in votes counted since ElectionDay by 52.3-47.7% .  This indicates that approximately 15% of Sander’s machine votes were flipped to Clinton.  Sanders  late vote share exceeded his Election Day share in every CA county. Greg Palast explains why Bernie won California.

Simple California Vote share Model

There was no exit poll, so let’s assume the following.
a) Party-ID: 57% Independents vs. 43% Democrats
(estimated based on 2014-2016 surveys)
b) Sanders won 70% of Independents

Result:
Clinton needed an implausible 85% of Democrats to match her 53.5% share.

Party-ID….PCT…… Sanders….Clinton
IND……… 57.0%….. 70.0%….. 30.0%
DEM…….. 43.0%…….15.3%….. 84.7%
Total…….100.0%….. 46.5%….. 53.5%
Recorded……………. 46.5%….. 53.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

What if: Clinton had 65% of Democrats?
Sanders would have won by 55-45%.

Assume Independents 57% vs. 43% Democrats
………………………..Sanders% IND
Sanders…….. 55% 60% 70% 75% 80%
% DEM……… Sanders Vote share
45%………….. 51% 54% 59% 62% 65%
40%………….. 49% 51% 57% 60% 63%
35%………….. 46% 49% 55% 58% 61%
30%………….. 44% 47% 53% 56% 59%
25%………….. 42% 45% 51% 54% 56%

 Clinton Sanders Margin TOTAL RECORDED 53.47% 46.53% -6.95% TRUE VOTE 48.34% 51.66% 3.32% CAUCUS Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders Margin 36.1% 63.9% 36.1% 63.9% 27.8% IA 50.1% 49.9% 50.1% 49.9% -0.3% NV 52.7% 47.3% 52.7% 47.3% -5.3% CO 40.6% 59.4% 40.6% 59.4% 18.8% MN 38.4% 61.6% 38.4% 61.6% 23.3% KS 32.3% 67.7% 32.3% 67.7% 35.5% NE 42.9% 57.1% 42.9% 57.1% 14.3% ME 35.6% 64.4% 35.6% 64.4% 28.7% ID 22.0% 78.0% 22.0% 78.0% 56.0% UT 20.7% 79.3% 20.7% 79.3% 58.6% AK 18.4% 81.6% 18.4% 81.6% 63.3% HI 30.1% 69.9% 30.1% 69.9% 39.8% WA 27.1% 72.9% 27.1% 72.9% 45.7% WY 45.3% 54.7% 45.3% 54.7% 9.4% ND 28.5% 71.5% 28.5% 71.5% 43.0% EXIT POLL UNCTD ADJUST Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders Margin Total 53.99% 46.01% 53.05% 46.95% -6.09% VT 13.0% 87.0% 12.6% 87.4% 74.9% NH 39.6% 60.4% 38.7% 61.3% 22.6% WI 37.0% 63.0% 36.1% 63.9% 27.8% NC 56.3% 43.7% 55.4% 44.6% -10.8% FL 64.0% 36.0% 63.1% 36.9% -26.1% SC 68.7% 31.3% 67.8% 32.2% -35.7% OH 51.9% 48.1% 51.0% 49.0% -1.9% MI 46.8% 53.2% 45.9% 54.1% 8.2% VA 62.4% 37.6% 61.6% 38.4% -23.1% MS 83.4% 16.6% 82.9% 17.1% -65.7% GA 65.7% 34.3% 64.9% 35.1% -29.7% TX 61.5% 38.5% 60.6% 39.4% -21.2% IL 48.8% 51.2% 47.9% 52.1% 4.2% IN 44.6% 55.4% 43.7% 56.3% 12.6% PA 54.7% 45.3% 53.8% 46.2% -7.5% NY 52.0% 48.0% 51.0% 49.0% -2.1% MA 46.7% 53.3% 45.8% 54.2% 8.4% CT 51.6% 48.4% 50.7% 49.3% -1.4% AZ 37.0% 63.0% 36.1% 63.9% 27.8% AL 73.2% 26.8% 72.4% 27.6% -44.8% TN 63.2% 36.8% 62.3% 37.7% -24.6% AR 66.0% 34.0% 65.2% 34.8% -30.3% MD 65.6% 34.4% 64.8% 35.2% -29.5% MO 48.1% 51.9% 47.2% 52.8% 5.7% OK 47.8% 52.2% 46.8% 53.2% 6.3% WV 39.9% 60.1% 39.0% 61.0% 22.0% NO EXIT POLL UNCTD / FLIPPED ADJUST Clinton Sanders Clinton Sanders Margin Total 54.96% 45.04% 45.77% 54.23% 8.45% CA 54.22% 45.78% 44.62% 55.38% 10.76% KY 50.2% 49.8% 41.5% 58.5% 16.9% MT 46.6% 53.4% 38.8% 61.2% 22.5% NJ 63.2% 36.8% 51.5% 48.5% -3.1% NM 51.5% 48.5% 42.6% 57.4% 14.9% SD 51.0% 49.0% 42.2% 57.8% 15.7% LA 75.4% 24.6% 61.0% 39.0% -22.0% DE 60.4% 39.6% 49.4% 50.6% 1.2% RI 44.1% 55.9% 36.8% 63.2% 26.4% OR 43.3% 56.7% 43.3% 56.7% 13.3% DC 79.5% 20.5% 64.2% 35.8% -28.4%

Based on the following table of 25 Democratic primary exit polls (assuming confirmation that the WI and CT  polls exceeded the MoE), the probability P that at least 12 would exceed the MoE is
P= 2.30E-13  or 1 in 4.3 trillion.
P= 1-binomdist (11,25,0.025,true)

Posted by on June 19, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

Richard Charnin
May 28, 2016

The 3 million Clinton vote margin is repeated endlessly by the media. This analysis shows that the number is grossly inflated. Sanders may very well be leading the popular vote and corresponding delegate count. This is an updated analysis of estimated probabilities of fraud in the Democratic primaries.

This is why Sanders has done much better than his recorded vote:

– Actual votes in caucus states are not included in the count – to the benefit of Clinton.
– Exit polls indicated voting machines were hacked – to the benefit of Clinton.
– Voter rolls were manipulated – to the benefit of Clinton.
– Long lines and reduced polling stations reduced voter turnout – to the benefit of Clinton.

Sanders leads by approximately 780,000 votes (51.5-48.5%), assuming a) caucus votes are included, b) unadjusted exit polls represent the true vote, c) 10% of Sanders voters were disenfranchised and d) 5% of Clinton’s votes were fraudulent early/absentee ballots.  View the Democratic Primaries spread sheet.

Sanders won the caucuses easily. The largest states were MN, WA, CO. The actual votes were approximated by multiplying caucus vote shares by the state voting population, which is proportional to the electoral vote.

Votes for the primaries were calculated based on late exit polls. Sanders did approximately 4% better in the polls than in his recorded share. The National Election Pool discontinued exit polls after the Indiana primary.

Sanders exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries which were exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190.000. The difference between his exit poll share and recorded share exceeded the margin of error in 11 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion. Is the exit poll shift to Clinton just pure luck? Or is something else going on?

Exit polls and caucuses indicate that Sanders has won 30 of 44 states and leads the electoral vote by  259-193. Clinton’s margin is reduced from 3 million to 1.3 million based on actual caucus votes and unadjusted exit polls.

A conservative estimate is that  10% of Sanders voters were disenfranchised due to long lines, reduced polling stations, switched/dropped party registrations,  uncounted provisional ballots, etc.  And  5% of Clinton’s votes were due to absentee ballot stuffing. New York, Arizona, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts and the southern red states are prime examples.

Clinton has won 11 RED states (normally Republican) by 2.1 million votes (64-36%)- before voter rolls, absentee/provisional ballot fraud. Clinton leads RED states by approximately 1.6 million (61-39%).

Sanders leads the non-RED states by 1.1 million- before voter rolls, absentee/provisional ballot fraud. Sanders leads non-RED states by approximately 57-43%, a 2.4 million vote margin.

Recorded Vote

 Clinton Sanders Margin Total Clinton Sanders Margin 12,985 9,981 3,004 22,966 56.5% 43.5% 13.0%

 Clinton Sanders Margin Clinton Sanders Margin 12,864 11,816 1,048 52.1% 47.9% 4.2%

 Sanders Clinton Margin Vote(000) Recorded 9,981 43.5% 12,985 56.5% -3,004 Exit Poll +Caucus Adjusted 11,816 47.9% 12,864 52.1% -1,048 Other: Reg switch/flip+Absentee/ provisional Final Adjusted 12,998 (+10%) 51.5% 12,221   (-5%) 48.5% 777
 TOTAL Clinton Sanders Margin Clinton Sanders Margin PRIMARIES 56.5% 43.5% -13.0% 12,985 9,981 -3,004 RED STATES South Carolina 68.7% 31.3% -37.3% 252 115 -137 Arkansas 66.0% 34.0% -32.0% 138 71 -67 Alabama 73.2% 26.8% -46.3% 283 104 -179 Tennessee 63.2% 36.8% -26.3% 231 135 -96 Virginia 62.4% 37.6% -24.9% 486 292 -194 Georgia 65.7% 34.3% -31.4% 498 260 -238 Texas 61.5% 38.5% -23.0% 868 543 -325 Louisiana 75.4% 24.6% -50.8% 222 72 -149 Mississippi 78.5% 21.5% -57.0% 182 36 -146 North Carolina 56.3% 43.7% -12.7% 607 470 -136 Florida 64.0% 36.0% -27.9% 1,064 600 -464

 TOTAL Clinton Sanders Margin Clinton Sanders Margin
 TOTAL (EP+Caucus) 52.1% 48.1% -3.8% 12,865 11,817 -1,048 RED States 64.2% 35.8% 28.3% 4,831 2,698 -2,133 OTHER States 46.8% 53.2% -6.3% 8,034 9,119 1,085 OTHER, net Disenfranchised 43.2% 56.8% -13.6% 7,632 10,031 2,398 RED, net Disenfranchised 60.7% 39.3% 21.5% 4,589 2,968 -1,622 Adjusted Total 48.5% 51.5% -3.1% 12,222 12,998 777
Bernie Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded vote share by at least the margin of error in 11 of 26 primaries:AL AZ GA MA NY OH MS SC TX WI WV
The probability is 1 in 76.8 BILLION:
P = 1 – binomdist (10, 26, 0.025,true)

Probability
26 Exit Polls
n P=1 in
1 2
2 7
3 38
4 266
5 2,415
6 27,384
7 378,644
8 6,280,036
9 123,437,142
10 2,850,178,375
11 76,829,636,415