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Did CBS and CNN low-ball Trump’s Democratic SOTU viewers and approval?

Richard Charnin
Feb 7, 2019

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Did CBS and CNN low-ball Trump’s Democratic SOTU viewers and approval?

According to CBS and CNN, 76% of  viewers approved of Trump’s SOTU. But the percentage of Democratic viewers was very low considering that CBS and CNN viewers are heavily Democratic.  Trump must have done much better among Democratic viewers than indicated in each poll and may have had over 80% total approval.

On CBS, Republican viewers (44%) outnumbered Democrats (25%) and Independents (31%) with 30% of Dems approving, 97% of Repubs and 82% of Independents. One would expect that CBS viewers would be overwhelmingly Democrats.

Assume CBS viewers were Dem 60%, Rep 20%, Ind 20%. Then to match Trump’s total 76% approval, estimated Dem approval is 66%, Rep 97%, Ind 86%.  This is plausible.

Assume CBS viewers represented Gallup national voter affiliation (34% Dem, 25% Rep, 41% Ind). Then to match Trump’s 76% approval, estimated Dem approval is 56%, Rep 97%, Ind 80%.

On CNN, Dem approval is 36%, Rep 87%, Ind 57%. Then to match 76% Trump approval, CNN viewers must have been: Dem 15%, Rep 75%, Ind 10%. This is not plausible.

Assume CNN viewers were Dem 45%, Rep 30%, Ind 25% with  Dem approval 66%, Rep 97%, Ind 87%. Then Trump had 81% total approval. This is plausible.

CBS poll Pct Approv
Dem………25% 30% < NOT PLAUSIBLE. Only 25% Dem viewers?
Rep……….44% 97%
Ind………..31% 82%
Total…….100% 76%

CBS1……. Pct Approv
Dem……. 60% 66% < 60% Dem is plausible
Rep……… 20% 97%
Ind………. 20% 86%
Total…….100% 76%

CBS2……. Pct Approv
Dem……. 60% 75% < 60% Dem is plausible
Rep……… 20% 97%
Ind………. 20% 86%
Total…….100% 82%   TRUMP 82% TOTAL APPROVAL

Gallup……Pct Approv
Dem………34% 56%
Rep……….25% 97%
Ind………..41% 80%
Total…….100% 76%

CNN poll.. Pct Approv
Dem………15% 36% < NOT PLAUSIBLE. Only 15% Dem viewers?
Rep………..75% 87%
Ind…………10% 57% Only 10% Ind?
Total…….100% 76%

CNN1….. Pct Approv
Dem……. 30% 60% < only 30% Dem viewers?
Rep…….. 30% 87%
Ind……… 40% 80%
Total…….100% 76%

CNN2….. Pct Approv
Dem……. 45% 66% <plausible
Rep…….. 30% 97%
Ind……… 25% 87%
Total…….100% 81%  TRUMP 81% TOTAL APPROVAL

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Posted by on February 7, 2019 in 2018 Elections

 

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MY COMMENTS TO THE MSM ON THE RIGGING OF THE 2016 PRE-ELECTION POLLS

The MSM just interviewed the authors of  Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign on the reasons for Clinton’s loss.  I commented to Chris Mathews and Brian Williams of MSNBC as well as FOX and CBS on how MSM pollsters rigged the pre-election polls for Clinton.

FYI: Your guests may not have looked at my 2016 Election model. It was based adjustments to final pre-election polls which were biased for Clinton. The Democratic Party-ID share was overstated at the expense of Independents who went solidly for Trump. In addition, there is strong evidence that votes were stolen from Jill Stein – by Clinton.

The 2016 Model projected Trump’s 306 RECORDED EV. But he actually had approximately 351 TRUE EV after adjusting for late undecided voters. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/2016-election-model-forecast/

Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
Recorded Vote Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote Model: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Note: I exactly forecast the RECORDED EV in the last three elections: 365, 332, 306. In each case the winner did better in the True Vote than the Recorded vote.

Here is the proof: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 

 

 

 
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Posted by on April 24, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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