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Sensitivity of 2016 Electoral and Popular Vote to Registered Voter Turnout

Sensitivity of 2016 Electoral and Popular Vote to Registered Voter Turnout

Richard Charnin
Oct.4, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Eight voter turnout scenarios:
Trump wins the base case (86% Dem, 91% Rep) by 328-210 EV and 1.15 million votes.

Trump needs 89% Dem and 88% Rep turnout to match his 306 EV.
Clinton needs an implausible 92% Dem, 85% Rep turnout to tie Trump at 269 EV.
Clinton needs 93% Dem, 87% Rep turnout to win by 298-240 EV and 3.12 million.
Clinton needs 92.5% Dem, 84.5% Rep turnout to match her 2.8 million margin.

Trump vote margins are conservative since the calculations are based on state exit poll vote shares forced to match the recorded vote.

Sensitivity analysis (assume constant 87% Independent voter turnout)

Turnout Trump Votes (000) Vote Shares
Dem Rep EV Trump Clinton Margin Trump Clinton
0.85 0.92 332 64,647 62,885 1,762 47.5 46.2
0.86 0.91 328 64,347 63,195 1,152 47.2 46.4
0.87 0.90 321 64,047 63,505 542 47.0 46.6
0.88 0.89 315 63,747 63,815 -68 46.8 46.9
0.89 0.88 305 63,447 64,125 -678 46.6 47.1
0.90 0.87 289 63,147 64,435 -1,288 46.4 47.3
0.91 0.86 289 62,847 64,745 -1,899 46.1 47.5
0.92 0.85 269 62,546 65,055 -2,509 45.9 47.8
0.93 0.84 240 62,246 65,365 -3,119 45.7 48.0
0.94 0.83 240 61,946 65,675 -3,729 45.5 48.2

The 2016 Census indicates that 87.3% of registered voters turned out.
Assume Sanders primary voters did not vote or defected
Trump wins by 48.13-45.33% (3.81 million votes) with 332-206 EV
Given:
– Census 2016 registered voter turnout of 87%.
– Gallup national voter affiliation (Party-ID) on Election Day:
(41% Independents, 31% Democrats and 28% Republicans)
– 28 exit poll states: vote shares forced to match recorded vote.
– 23 non-exit poll states recorded vote shares .

Assumptions: Bernie Sanders defectors…
– 5% of registered Democrats stayed home
– 4% voted for Jill Stein and 1% for Trump.
Results:
1. Adjusted Voter Turnout: 78.6% Dem, 91.6% Rep, 91.6% Ind
2. Adjusted Gallup Party-ID: 29.5% Dem, 29.1% Rep, 41.4% Ind
3. Gallup Party-ID calculated for each of the 28 exit polled states
4. Trump wins by 48.13-45.33% (3.81 million votes) with 332-206 EV

Since state exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote (and likely inflated for Clinton), Trump probably did better than indicated.

…………..Clinton Trump
28 states 45.67% 47.67% Exit polls
Votes…… 50,664 52,776


23 states 43.71% 50.40% No exit polls
Votes…… 11,079 12,777


51 states 45.33% 48.13%
Votes…… 61,744 65,554

Row 130: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=857963642

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Posted by on October 4, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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CLINTON DID NOT WIN THE POPULAR VOTE: UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS AND RECORDED VOTES ARE BOGUS

Richard Charnin
Sep. 29, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

This is an analysis of Party-ID, recorded vote shares and unadjusted State Exit Polls. It indicates that Clinton did not win the popular vote by 2.8 million. In fact, she did not win the popular vote.

According to the 2016 Census, 87.3% of registered voters turned out.
If 6% of Democratic voters stayed home because the DNC rigged the primary, then 85% of Democrats, 91% Republicans and 87% Independents voted.

2016 National
Party-ID….Dem Rep Ind

Exit Poll 36.0 33.0 31.0%
Gallup….31.0 28.0 41.0

28 Exit Poll states Party-ID 
WtdAvg 37.4 31.8 30.8%
Average 35.3 32.5 32.2
Gallup.. 31.8 28.9 39.3 (wtd average)
Gallup.. 30.0 29.6 40.4 (average)

Clinton won the recorded vote by 65.6-62.8  million (48.3-46.2%)

a) In the 28 states exit polled (110.7 million votes),
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 54.9-48.2 million (49.6-43.6%).
She won the recorded vote by 54.5-50.0 million (49.2-45.2%).

b) In the 28 states after adjustments for Gallup Party-ID and voter turnout,
Clinton wins by 52.1-51.6 million (47.1-46.6%).

c) In the 23 states that were not exit polled (25.5 million votes),
Trump won by 12.8-11.1 million (50.4-43.7%).

d) The 51 state adjusted total (136.2 million votes):
Trump wins by: 64.4-63.2 million (47.2-46.4%).

Note: the analysis does not adjust the recorded (bogus) state exit poll vote shares. It does not adjust for the effects of disenfranchised or illegal voters or purged voting rolls or votes flipped at the voting machines and central tabulators.

The bogus claim that Clinton won the popular vote is quoted ad nauseam by so-called “experts” in the media, academia and corrupt politicians. They are complicit in spreading this disinformation along with the fully discredited meme of a Russian “hack” designed to steal the election from Hillary. There is not one iota of proof.

I have written three books in which I cited pristine unadjusted exit polls to prove fraud. I believe they accurately represented the True Vote – up until the 2016 presidential election. Just because exit polls have proven to be accurate in the past (most recently in the 2016 Democratic primary) does not mean they were accurate in the 2016 election. The fact that Hillary won the popular recorded vote by 2.8 million does not mean she won the True Vote. They are never the same.

The “experts” still maintain the fiction that Clinton won the primary by 3 million votes. But the recorded vote is NEVER equal to the true vote. For some reason, talking heads never mention that simple fact. President Obama said it was not possible to steal an election. They think we are all stupid. Election Fraud is always an inside job.

The following states flipped to Trump from the unadjusted exit poll to the recorded vote and the Gallup-adjusted exit poll: FL MI NC PA WI
Minnesota flipped to Clinton.

California (3.77), Illinois (0.72) and New York (0.78) provided 5.27 million of Clinton’s adjusted margin in the 28 states. Trump won the other 25 states by 3.7 million votes.

Wisconsin
Trump did better in the Gallup-adjusted poll than the unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote.

Unadjusted Exit Poll: Clinton 48.2-44.3% (118,000 votes)
Recorded Vote: Trump won 47.2-46.3% (23,000 votes)

CNN Adjusted Exit Poll: 35Dem-34Rep-31 Ind
Trump wins: 48.5-46.3% (67,000 votes)

Gallup Adjusted: 30.1Dem-31.9Rep-38.1Ind
Trump wins: 49.8-44.5% (157,000 votes)

WI Gallup Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem…. 30.10% 91.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Rep….. 31.85%  6.0% 90.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Ind….. 38.05% 40.0% 50.0% 6.0% 2.0%
Share 100.0% 44.5% 49.8% 3.5% 1.06%
Votes.. 2,976. 1,325. 1,482…105.. 32

Scroll to row 150 to view the state data: adjusted and recorded Party-ID and vote shares. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=857963642

 
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Posted by on September 29, 2017 in 2016 election, Election Myths

 

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2016 True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 Voters

2016 True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 Voters

Richard Charnin
Aug.28, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

Pollsters no longer ask the question “How did you vote in the last election”? Why? Because posing the question provides an analyst with data to indicate election fraud.

In 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, in order to match the recorded vote (SOP), the exit pollsters (who work for the MSM) required a greater turnout of Bush voters from the prior election than were still alive. This is a MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY. If the exit poll is impossible, the recorded vote it was forced to match must also be impossible. That is proof of fraud. It’s why the exit pollsters (the MSM) no longer ask the question “Who Did You Vote for in the Last Election”?

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

These 2016 models calculate a true vote estimate for each state.
Model 1: Obama and Romney voter turnout in 2016.
Model 2: Gallup Party-ID voter affiliation. Used in the 2016 forecast model.

Base case vote shares were identical in each model. The shares were forced to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout. To calculate the True Vote, returning Obama voter turnout in 2016 was adjusted to 89%. The assumption is that 6% of Obama voters were Bernie Sanders 2016 primary voters who did not return to vote in the presidential election.

Important note: Since the vote shares were forced to match a likely fraudulent recorded vote (the Mainstream Media was heavily biased for Clinton), the following results are conservative. Trump probably did at least 2% better than indicated in the base case calculations. View the sensitivity analysis.

So how can we determine Obama and Romney returning voter turnout in 2016? Where can we get that information? Why don’t the exit pollsters provide the data? Should we just guess or estimate turnout based on historical elections? I chose the latter.

Using the prior 2012 vote as a basis, a voter mortality estimate is factored in. Approximately 4% of voters pass between each election (1% annual mortality). The simplest approach is to assume an equal 95% turnout of Obama and Romney voters still living. Now we have a plausible approximation of the (unknown) mix of returning voters. Since we know the current election recorded vote, the number of new 2016 voters who did not vote in 2012 can be calculated: DNV = 2016 total vote – returning 2012 voters.

The first step is to force the candidate shares of returning voters to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout.

In the True Vote calculation, the percentage of returning Obama voters was lowered to 89% to reflect disenchantment among Bernie Sanders’ primary voters who did not vote in the general election or voted for Jill Stein or Donald Trump.

To view the sensitivity of the True Vote to Trump shares of returning Obama and Romney voters, a matrix of total vote shares is calculated in 1% increments around the Trump base case estimate. There are 25 vote share scenario combinations in the 5×5 matrix. Corresponding matrices of Clinton shares and vote margins are also included. The base case is in the central cell.

2016 Presidential State Election Model Summary
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=667189511

Recorded Vote
Clinton: 48.25-46.17% (2.83 million votes)
Trump: 306 Electoral Votes

Model 1
(returning 2012 voters)
2012 recorded vote: Obama 51.03-Romney 47.19% (4.98 million)
2016 voter turnout: Obama 89%, Romney 95%
Trump: 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
Trump: 323 Electoral Votes

Model 2
Gallup National Voter Affiliation Survey: 32D-28R-40I (state adjusted)
1. Trump and Clinton split the undecided vote:
Trump: 46.8-45.8% (1.35 million votes)
Trump: 307 Electoral Votes

2. Trump had 75% of the undecided vote:
Trump: 48.1-44.5% (4.97 million votes)
Trump: 352 Electoral Votes

The National Model
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1768941212

Vote share sensitivity analysis (Model 1)
-Best case: Trump had 92% of returning Romney voters and 9% of Obama voters
Trump by 49.4-45.0% (5.98 million votes)
-Base case: Trump had 90% of returning Romney voters and 7% of Obama voters
Trump by 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
-Worst case: Trump had 88% of returning  Romney voters and 5% of Obama voters
Clinton by 48.3-46.1% (2.97 million votes).

Mathematical Proof: the 2004 election was stolen
The 2004 National Exit Poll was impossible as it was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Bush 2000 voters. It indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 45.3 million (37%) were returning Gore voters. But Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. It indicated an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters in 2004.

2004 Election Fraud
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/10/30/2004-election-fraud-overwhelming-statistical-proof-that-it-was-stolen/

2004 Spreadsheet 1
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=7

2004 Spreadsheet 2
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x2WCPJautd_eZPIfkmW9W9vD2p1Zu0ZlvgqV_gUwLNM/edit#gid=13

 
 

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Trump won the True vote; Clinton won the Fraudulent Recorded vote

Richard Charnin
June 24, 2017
Updated: July 10,2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Hillary Clinton’s 2.9 million recorded vote margin is a myth. The simple proof: ALL elections are fraudulent. THE RECORDED VOTE IS NEVER EQUAL TO THE TRUE VOTE. Mainstream media pre-election and exit polls were rigged for Clinton.  

She won the Recorded Vote 48.3-46.2% . Trump had 306 EV. The True Vote Model indicates that Trump won by 48-44% (5 million votes) with 351 EV. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/2016-election-model-forecast/

1988-2012: Democrats won the True Vote and the unadjusted exit polls 52-42%. They won the recorded vote by 48-46%. They won the True Vote in every election. The exit polls and the True Vote Model indicated that the 1988,2000 and 2004 elections were stolen.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

So what changed in 2016? The establishment was in the tank for Clinton. The pre-election and exit polls were biased in her favor. Trump won the primaries easily; Clinton had to cheat Bernie. Trump and Bernie drew big crowds, Clinton drew small crowds. Trump and Bernie won (non-scientific) online debate polls by large margins.

2016 Democratic primary: 11 of 26 unadjusted exit polls exceeded the MoE for Sanders. Odds against: 79 billion to one.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/05/05/democratic-primaries-election-fraud-probability-analysis/

2016 Election: Clinton led 9 pre-election polls by 2.5% – exactly matching the recorded vote.
Pre-election polls were rigged for Clinton. Democratic Party ID was inflated.
True National Party ID was 40-I-32D-28R
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945

Unadjusted exit polls were also rigged for Clinton. Large exit poll discrepancies favored Clinton in the Rust belt and Red states.  Exit polls matched the recorded vote in large states (i.e. CA). If the recorded vote was bogus, then the unadjusted exit polls must have also overstated Clinton shares. In NY the 5% discrepancy actually favored Trump.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/why-the-recorded-vote-and-unadjusted-exit-polls-are-wrong/

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis – returning 2012 voters. Trump wins all 25 scenarios. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1768941212

Ohio unadjusted exit poll indicated an implausible 47% tie .  Trump won Ohio by 51.7-43.6%.  To match the unadjusted poll, Clinton needed to win Independents by 50-35%, an implausible margin.  However, the final Ohio exit poll (which is always matched to the recorded vote) indicated that Trump won Independents by 51-38%.

Humboldt County, CA is only US county with an Open Source foolproof vote count/audit. Bernie had his highest CA share in Humboldt (71%). Jill Stein had her highest share there(6%) compared to 1% elsewhere.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/01/01/more-clues-on-election-fraud-from-humboldt-cty-ca/

Voter turnout: millions of Sanders voters a) did not turnout, b) voted for Stein, c) voted for Trump,
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/03/15/2016-voter-turnout-and-vote-share-sensitivity-analysis-trump-won-the-popular-vote/

Trump and Bernie each won Independents by 10%. Trump had a higher percentage of Republicans than Clinton had of Democrats.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1042213556

“Crosscheck”: It is estimated that one million votes were suppressed, costing Hillary.
http://www.gregpalast.com/election-stolen-heres/

Illegal voters: Estimated at 1-5 million. Obama encouraged illegals to vote.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/02/25/2016-true-vote-sensitivity-analysis-illegal-voters-uncounted-votes-machine-vote-flipping/
https://pjmedia.com/trending/2017/06/20/report-as-many-as-5-7-million-non-citizens-voted-in-2008-election
http://www.wnd.com/2016/11/obama-encourages-illegal-aliens-to-vote/

Fraction Magic: votes were flipped to Clinton on Central tabulators (Bev Harris)
http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-1/

Hillary supporter George Soros had an interest in voting machines in 16 states.
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2176907-voting-machines-in-16-states-tied-to-george-soros-ally/

Recounts in MI and WI showed that Trump did better than reported. Wayne County, MI had more votes than registered voters.
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/12/12/records-many-votes-detroits-precincts/95363314/

National Exit Poll- When Decided:  The NEP is ALWAYS adjusted to match the recorded vote. The 2016 NEP indicates that 26% of voters decided after Oct.1;  48%  voted for Trump and 40% for Clinton. Of the 74% who decided before Oct.1, Clinton led 51-45%.

The 2016 NEP indicates that 40% of voters decided after Sept.1. Trump won these voters by 48.0-42.0%. Clinton won voters who decided before Sept.1 by 52.5-45.0%. Since the poll was forced to match Clinton’s 48.3-46.2% recorded vote, it appears that her pre-Sept. vote share was inflated.

The third-party Recorded vote is another clue that Clinton’s vote was rigged.
According to the National Exit Poll, 4% of voters who decided before Oct.1 voted for a third party candidate; 12% voted third party after Oct.1. Jill Stein had just 1% of the total recorded vote. Could it be that Jill really had at least 3% of which 2% or more were shifted to Clinton?

Decided Pct Clinton Trump Other
Post Oct. 1 26% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0%
Pre Oct. 1.. 74% 51.0% 45.0% 4.0%
Total……… 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%

Decided Pct Clinton Trump Other
Post Sept. 1 40% 42.0% 48.0% 10.0%
Pre Sept 1.. 60% 52.5% 45.0% 2.5%
Total……… 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%

Were Clinton’s pre-Oct.  poll shares rigged to match the recorded vote? Clinton won the national recorded vote by 2.9 million. She won IL, CA and NY by a combined 7 million votes. So Trump won the recorded vote by at least 4 million everywhere else. But Trump’s True Vote margin had to be higher than 4 million. Here’s why: As many as 3 million of Clinton’s 7 million margin in IL, CA and NY may have been fraudulent- matching her national 3 million margin. Were Clinton’s votes inflated (rigged) in these and other states?

State exit poll………….. IL…….. CA……. NY
Total Recorded %…… 56-39-5.. 62-32-4. 60-37-3
Before Oct.1………….66-32-2.. 67-29-4. 67-31-2 < Rigged?
After Oct.1………….. 33-55-12. 51-42-7. 38-53-9 < shift to Trump & 3rd party
Votes (mil)…………….. 5.5……. 14.2……. 7.5
Margin (mil)…………… 0.95……. 4.3…….. 1.7 Total 6.95 million

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/pubchart?oid=729649900&format=image

 
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Posted by on June 24, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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SUMMARY VOTE SHARE/ ELECTORAL VOTE ANALYSIS

Richard Charnin
Dec.20, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.8 million votes.  She won California by 4.27 million, New York by 1.7 million and Illinois by 945,000 votes – a total of 6.9 million.  Her margins in these states were implausible.  Trump won the other 48 states by 4.1 million.

The 28 unadjusted state exit polls are implausible. Trump won the True Vote. He won Independents by 7.7% over Clinton. Independents outnumbered Democrats by 6.7%.

Unadjusted Exit Polls
1-Use Party-ID from the CNN exit poll (matched to reported vote).
2-Independent vote shares adjusted to match the adj. exit poll.

CNN Exit Poll (Reported Vote)
Clinton Trump Trump EV
65,719 62,890 306
48.2% 46.2% (total reported vote)
49.3% 45.2% 224 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Unadjusted State Exit Polls (implausible)
Clinton Trump Trump EV
48.5% 44.8% 241
49.6% 43.6% 159 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

True Vote Model 1 (use state-adjusted Gallup National Party-ID)
Clinton Trump Trump EV
47.3% 46.5% 279
48.1% 45.6% 197 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

True Vote Model 2: Sensitivity Analysis (Gallup Party-ID)

Scenario 1: Undecided Voters to Trump: 50%
Clinton Trump Trump EV
45.1% 47.5% 306
45.5% 46.8% 224 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Scenario 2: Undecided Voters to Trump: 60%
Clinton Trump Trump EV
44.7% 47.9% 313
45.0% 47.3% 231 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Scenario 3: Undecided Voters to Trump: 70%
Clinton Trump Trump EV
44.3% 48.3% 342
44.5% 47.8% 260 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0

OHIO
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 34% 87% 12% 0% 1%
Rep 37% 8% 89% 2% 1%
Ind 29% 38% 52% 8% 2%
Calc 100% 43.6% 52.1% 3.1% 1.3%
Reported 99.3% 43.6% 51.7% 3.2% 0.8%
Votes 5,496 2,394 2,841 174 46
    Margin 447 8.1%  
Exit Poll Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 34% 87% 12% 0% 1%
Rep 37% 8% 89% 2% 1%
Ind 29% 50% 35% 8% 7%
Match 100% 47.0% 47.2% 3.1% 2.7%
Unadj.EP 100% 47.0% 47.1% 3.2% 2.7%
Votes 5,496 2,583 2,589 176 148
    Margin 5 0.1%
True Vote Gallup adj. Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 32.4% 87% 12% 0% 1%
Rep 33.4% 8% 89% 2% 1%
Ind 34.2% 38% 52% 8% 2%
TVM1 100.0% 43.9% 51.4% 3.4% 1.3%
95.1% 41.6% 46.7% 4.4% 2.4%
TVM 100% 43.6% 49.6% 4.0% 2.8%
Votes 5,496 2,396 2,729 220 152
    Margin 332 5.1%  
 
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Posted by on December 20, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Nevada: Recorded Vote vs. Exit Poll vs. True Vote

Nevada: Recorded Vote vs. Exit Poll vs. True Vote

Richard Charnin
Dec. 8, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Clinton won Nevada by 27,000 votes (47.9-45.5%).
She led the exit poll by 50.4-43.2% (86,000 votes)
The True Vote Model indicates that Trump won by 19,000 votes (47.2-45.4)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0

The unadjusted NV exit poll is implausible based on two factors:
1) The Democratic Party-ID share (36D-28R-36I) is inflated. True Party-ID  is derived from the Gallup voter affiliation survey (40I- 32D- 28R). It is estimated as 31.3D -27.5R -41.2I.
2) Clinton’s  45-43% winning margin  of Independents required to match the “unadjusted” exit poll is implausibly high. Trump won Independents by 50-37% in the NV exit poll (matched to the recorded vote)  and by 48-44% nationally.

Summary Statistics

NV Unadjusted exit poll
Clinton wins: 50.4-43.2% (86,000 vote margin)
Clinton won Independents: 45-43%
Party ID: 36D- 28R- 36I

NV Reported Vote (CNN)
Clinton won: 47.9-45.5% (27,000 vote margin)
Trump won Independents: 50-37%
Party ID: 36D- 28R- 36I

NV True Vote Model
Trump wins 47.2-45.4% (19,000 vote margin)
Trump wins Independents: 50-36%
Party ID: 31.3D -27.5R -41.2I (derived from Gallup)

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/nevada
http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

Nevada          
Unadj Exit Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Other
Dem 36.0% 90% 8% 1% 1%
Rep 28.0% 8% 88% 2% 2%
Ind 36.0% 45% 43% 6% 6%
Calc 100.0% 50.8% 43.0% 3.1% 3.1%
Unadjusted 100.0% 50.9% 43.2% 3.7% 2.2%
Votes (000) 1,113 567 481 41 24
    Margin -86 -7.7%  
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Other
Dem 36.0% 90% 8% 1% 1%
Rep 28.0% 8% 88% 2% 2%
Ind 36.0% 37% 50% 7% 6%
Calc 100.0% 48.0% 45.5% 3.4% 3.1%
Reported 100.0% 47.9% 45.5% 3.3% 3.3%
Votes (000) 1,113 538 511 37 27
    Margin -27 -2.4%
True Vote Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Other
Dem 31.3% 90% 8% 1% 1%
Rep 27.5% 8% 88% 2% 2%
Ind 41.2% 36% 50% 7% 7%
Calc 100.0% 45.2% 47.3% 3.7% 3.7%
TVM bef UVA 94.5% 42.7% 44.4% 4.7% 2.7%
True Vote 100.0% 45.4% 47.2% 4.7% 2.7%
Votes (000) 1,113 506 525 53 29
    Margin 19 1.8%  
 
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Posted by on December 8, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Wisconsin CVS: Clinton vs. Burke 2014 Governor

Richard Charnin
Dec.4, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

As the Wisconsin recount proceeds, it is instructive to compare the 2016 election to the 2014 Governor race – especially in Milwaukee county.

In the 2014 WI Gov race, Walker won by 52.2-46.7%. It is commonly believed that Walker stole the election, mostly in Milwaukee County.

Burke won Milwaukee County by 62.8-36.1%, a 26.7% margin.
Burke won the City of Milwaukee by 76.1-22.4% (53.7%)
Walker won the Milwaukee suburbs by 52.9-46.1% (6.8%)

Trump won WI by 47.2-46.4%.
Clinton won Milwaukee County by 65.6-28.6% (37.0%).
Clinton won the City of Milwaukee by 76.6-18.4% (58.2%).
Clinton won the Milwaukee suburbs by 51.6-41.6 (10%).

This sheet compares Clinton to Burke (2014 Dem Gov race) in all WI counties. It is sorted by percentage gain in Clinton’s 2-party share vs. Burke.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L2Z0UtSzNODdq08hL_nfoIR9zaOBEU4IjVehJCMF-C4/edit#gid=239416879

CLINTON GAINED OVER BURKE IN 25 LARGE, MOSTLY REPUBLICAN COUNTIES WITH 2,146,000 VOTES! In 2014, Walker won 18, Burke won 5 and 2 were nearly tied.

Clinton lost share in the other 47 counties with just 802,000 votes (5 of the 47 were won by Burke). What does this indicate, given that Walker stole the election from Burke?

Does it mean a) there was virtually no fraud (Hillary picked up votes stolen from Burke in counties) or b) there was fraud (Hillary picked up votes in 18 Republican counties, but lost votes in small Republican counties)

Although Clinton was unpopular and Burke well-liked, Clinton exceeeded Burke by 4.5% in the City of Milwaukee and 16.8% in the suburbs. Was the fraud in Clinton’s favor this time?

This is a Cumulative vote share/ graph analysis  for all 72 WI counties:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L2Z0UtSzNODdq08hL_nfoIR9zaOBEU4IjVehJCMF-C4/edit#gid=0

In the CVS tables, the first group of columns is the reported precinct vote; set #2 is the votes sorted in ascending order by precinct size, #3 is the cumulative sum of the precinct votes from smallest to largest precincts, #4 is the cumulative vote shares based on #3.

One would normally expect the CVS graph lines to be parallel if there was little or no fraud or else diverge in case of fraud. Of course, county precinct demographics based is also a factor. The assumption that the county electorate is independent of precinct size.

WI reported votes by county (CNN): http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/wisconsin/president

 
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Posted by on December 4, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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