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Mainstream Media and the Mathematics of Conspiracies

Mainstream Media and the Mathematics of Conspiracies

Richard Charnin
Dec. 31, 2017

Mainstream media pundits who called me a JFK / Seth Rich “Conspiracy Theorist”  avoided mathematical proofs in my blog posts, five books and the 84-page Moore complaint.  They also failed to mention that I was the only analyst in the universe to exactly forecast the electoral vote in each of the last three elections. Granted, a combination of skill and luck. My Blog  Posts: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ib27G_vDNtQDNLDR8rXiU2LJLCn7Hspd4g5SKtQw1CM/edit#

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/12/14/2017-alabama-true-vote-75-turnout-of-of-clinton-voters-but-only-45-of-trump-voters/

https://www.scribd.com/document/367999441/Moore-Voter-Fraud-Complaint

The True Pundit: https://truepundit.com/roy-moore-takes-polygraph-files-complaint-election-fraud-dems-cheated-finally-proof/ The election experts, who submitted affidavits in the complaint, agree that the irregularities in 20 precincts of Jefferson County alone are enough to reverse the outcome of the election. Richard Charnin, who holds three degrees in applied mathematics, and who has written four books on election fraud, calculates the probability of the election results in these precincts happening naturally is “less than one in 15 billion.”

INFOWARS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpmJf58mDMQ

CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/28/politics/roy-moore-analysis/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/28/politics/roy-moore-files-complaint/index.htm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAi_jcB0pks
Porter also defended the campaign against questions about one of the election experts that it cited in the court brief, Richard Charnin. Charnin has claimed there is a “less than one in 15 billion” chance that voter fraud played no role in the Alabama outcome. Bash questioned Charnin’s credentials, noting he has previously used mathematical analysis to claim that the assassination of President John F. Kennedy was a conspiracy.

The Hill: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/366689-moore-camp-warns-of-consequences-if-jones-is-certified-as-alabama-winner Moore and his campaign filed a complaint in the Circuit Court of Montgomery, Alabama, listing several allegations and called for “a new special election.” His complaint alleges that out-of-state residents had been allowed to vote and that election fraud experts had concluded through statistical analyses that fraud had taken place. One of the election experts Moore cites is Richard Charnin, who also posts about JFK conspiracy theories and the murder of DNC staffer, Seth Rich.

Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/12/28/roy-moore-asks-alabama-court-for-a-new-election/?utm_term=.367f6ed15013   Richard Charnin, who provided the court with an argument that there was just enough possible fraud to swing the election, claimed to have “mathematically” proved a conspiracy behind the assassination of John F. Kennedy. In 2016, Charnin alleged that mass election fraud had stolen key Democratic primaries from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), to the benefit of eventual nominee Hillary Clinton.

NPR: https://www.npr.org/2017/12/28/574222257/fact-check-where-roy-moores-voter-fraud-claims-fall-flat  Richard Charnin, one of those so-called experts, is a well-known conspiracy theorist whose blog contains sections about the John F. Kennedy assassination and claims that Trump won the popular vote in the 2016 election — even though he in fact lost it by almost 3 million votes.

LAW AND CRIME: https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/in-effort-to-delay-vote-certification-roy-moore-uses-election-expert-who-is-jfk-and-seth-rich-conspiracy-theorist/ Nearly three weeks have passed, and Moore has still refused to concede to Democrat Doug Jones who won the election by more than 20,000 votes. The Alabama Secretary of State is expected to certify the election results on Thursday (and says he plans to despite the complaint). The complaint, filed in Alabama state court, also called for a new election. However, probably most entertaining (troubling? frightening?), is that in the complaint, Moore’s attorneys attach several affidavits from so-called election experts including Richard Charnin, who calculated that the probability of the elections results in these precincts happening naturally is ‘less than one in 15 billion.”

RAW STORY: https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/roy-moores-voter-fraud-expert-is-a-notorious-crank-who-says-he-mathematically-proved-plot-to-kill-jfk/ Richard Charnin, the purported “expert” in voter fraud who has been cited by the Roy Moore campaign to claim that Democrat Doug Jones did not legitimately win this month’s Alabama Senate special election, is a notorious conspiracy theorist who has claimed that he has “mathematically proved” that there was a vast conspiracy to assassinate former President John F. Kennedy. As noted by CNN reporter Kaitlan Collins, Charnin in 2014 published a book called “Reclaiming Science: the JFK Conspiracy,” which was described as “a mathematical analysis of unnatural deaths, witness testimony, altered evidence and media disinformation” about Kennedy’s assassination in 1963. In essence, the book examines purportedly “unnatural” deaths of key people related to the supposed assassination plot — and concludes that it’s mathematically impossible for their deaths to be a coincidence. “Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy is based on a statistical analysis of unnatural JFK-related deaths, Dealey Plaza eyewitness observations, medical, acoustic and photographic evidence,” reads the book’s description. “Warren Commission defenders and the Corporate Media avoid the evidence and continue to promote the bogus Single Bullet Theory and that Oswald was the lone shooter, despite overwhelming evidence that he was not on the 6th floor of the Texas Book Depository.” Collins says that Charnin has written extensively on his personal blog about both voter fraud conspiracies and has also calculated the probabilities that the DNC had former staffer Seth Rich murdered to cover up his ties to WikiLeaks.

The Telegraph-UK: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/28/roy-moore-launches-legal-challenge-against-alabama-election/” It cited “irregularities in 20 precincts” of the state’s Jefferson County which it said were “enough to reverse the outcome of the election,” quoting the views of conspiracy theorist Richard Charnin who claims the 2004 presidential election and 2016 Democratic primary were also rigged”.

NY Magazine: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/12/roy-moore-files-lawsuit-alleging-voter-fraud-in-alabama-race.html One of the experts Moore cites is Richard Charnin, who says the probability that the election results are accurate is “less than one in 15 billion.” Charnin runs a blog devoted to “JFK conspiracy and systemic election fraud analysis,” and is known for pushing dubious voter-fraud claims, like that George W. Bush stole the 2004 election from John Kerry, Bernie Sanders is the rightful winner of the 2016 Democratic primary, and President Trump actually beat Hillary Clinton in the popular vote, not just the Electoral College.

Newsweek: http://www.newsweek.com/moore-election-lawsuit-alabama-fraud-761364Since the election, which marked the first time a Republican had lost a Senate election in Alabama in over two decades, Moore has refused to concede to Jones. The suit cites three “national election integrity experts” who state fraud occurred during December 12’s special election and includes Moore’s claim of passing a polygraph test to prove he did not commit any acts of sexual misconduct or molestation with teenage girls, according to AL.com. “This is not a Republican or Democrat issue as election integrity should matter to everyone,” Moore said according to AL.com. “We call on Secretary of State Merrill to delay certification until there is a thorough investigation of what three independent election experts agree took place: election fraud sufficient to overturn the outcome of the election.”

New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/us/politics/roy-moore-block-election.htmlIt was not immediately clear when a judge would consider Mr. Moore’s complaint or the affidavits from several people his campaign described as experts in elections; To support his arguments, Mr. Moore included affidavits from several people his campaign described as experts in elections; one has claimed to have “mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate” President John F. Kennedy. (Mr. Moore has himself indulged in conspiracy theories, including that former President Barack Obama was not born in the United States.)

BBC: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42501154Mr Moore’s lawsuit alleges that there were voting irregularities in 20 precincts and calls for a fraud investigation and a new election. One of the election experts cited in the suit is Richard Charnin, a conspiracy theorist who also claims there was widespread voter fraud against Donald Trump in the presidential election. Mr Moore’s lawyer said the purpose of the complaint was to “preserve evidence of potential election fraud and to postpone the certification of Alabama’s Special Election by Secretary of State John Merrill until a thorough investigation of potential election fraud, that improperly altered the outcome of this election”.

NBC: https://www-nbcnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/amp/roy-moore-alleges-voter-fraud-files-challenge-election-defeat-n833041?amp_js_v=0.1 The statement gives few details of the purported irregularities, which it says were substantiated “with a reasonable degree of statistical and mathematical certainty” by three election experts.The statement identifies only one of the experts, Richard Charnin, whom it quotes as saying the probability that the official election results were accurate was “less than one in 15 billion.” Charnin, who says he has three degrees in applied mathematics, is a prominent figure among believers that the assassination of President John F. Kennedy was the result of a conspiracy. He has also argued that the Republicans stole the 2004 presidential election and that Hillary Clinton stole the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.

The Hill: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/366689-moore-camp-warns-of-consequences-if-jones-is-certified-as-alabama-winner Porter also defended the campaign against questions about one of the election experts that it cited in the court brief, Richard Charnin. Charnin has claimed there is a “less than one in 15 billion” chance that voter fraud played no role in the Alabama outcome. Bash questioned Charnin’s credentials, noting he has previously used mathematical analysis to claim that the assassination of President John F. Kennedy was a conspiracy.

NY DAILY NEWS: http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/picture-democracy-ballot-images-article-1.3724556 Roy Moore tried and failed to challenge the outcome of the U.S. Senate special election where he was bested by Democrat Doug Jones. We are grateful that Alabamians rejected Republican Moore, with his bigoted views and documented history of attempts to seduce teen girls, won’t be in the Senate. But count us disappointed that Moore’s ex-colleagues on the Alabama Supreme Court denied him fair opportunity to prove his cockamamie claim that rampant voter fraud denied him so many votes that he should have beaten Jones instead of losing by around 22,000 votes.

THE ATLANTIC: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/roy-moores-last-gasp/549332/Most of the lawsuit focused on what Moore’s attorneys described as electoral anomalies that raise questions about the 22,000-vote margin. They include “expert testimony” from a Florida-based elections analyst named Richard Charnin who wrote in an accompanying letter that there was “overwhelming statistical proof of fraud in Jefferson County.” (Charnin is perhaps best known, to the extent that he is, as a positor of conspiracy theories about the assassination of John F. Kennedy and, more recently, the 2016 murder of Seth Rich, a staffer with the Democratic National Committee.) Moore alleges that in Republican precincts in the county, there was an unexplained drop-off in votes by people who checked off a straight party-line vote for the GOP but did not vote for Moore.

THE GUARDIAN: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/28/alabama-election-roy-moore-files-lawsuit-to-stop-doug-jones-certification The filing cited “experts” including Richard Charnin, who has a blog dedicated to John F Kennedy conspiracy theories and has also floated conspiracies over the 2016 death of Seth Rich, a Democratic National Committee staffer. Another cited authority, James Condit Jr, has espoused antisemitic views and promoted conspiracies about a supposed Jewish takeover of the Vatican.

DAILY DOT: https://www.dailydot.com/layer8/roy-moore-election-challenge/  Richard Charnin, who prognosticates elections online, said he saw enough evidence to say that the election could have been swung illegally for Doug Jones. Charnin’s previous claim to fame is that he thinks it’s mathematically proven that John F. Kennedy’s assassination was a conspiracy. “I mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate JFK – and cover it up,” Charnin says on his website. “JFK Calc is a spreadsheet database of suspicious and unnatural witness deaths and other statistical anomalies. Many witnesses who were called to testify in four investigations died unnaturally. The probability is one in trillions – absolute mathematical proof of a conspiracy.

LAGNIAPPEMOBILE https://lagniappemobile.com/roy-moore-files-lawsuit-stop-election-certification/ All three experts submitted affidavits to the court along with Moore’s complaint, though only one was identified by the Moore campaign in its statement announcing the legal challenge. Richard Charnin is quoted as saying the probability of the election results in certain precincts in Jefferson County happening naturally is “less than one in 15 billion.” Charnin is no stranger to post-election controversy, though. He has a history of making similar claims after races won by both parties like the 2004 presidential election of George W. Bush and Hillary Clinton’s victory in the 2016 Democratic primary. According to the New York Times, Charnin has also claims to have “mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate” President John F. Kennedy.

 

NY DAILY NEWS: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/judge-denies-roy-moore-attempt-delay-alabama-senate-results-article-1.3723608 One “expert” named by Moore was Richard Charnin, who has claimed to have “mathematically proved a conspiracy to assassinate” President John F. Kennedy. A website run Charnin specializes in writings about election fraud and notes about JFK conspiracies. In a blog post from earlier this month, Charnin cites the “the FACT that the recorded vote is ALWAYS fraudulent” and claims that President Trump won the 2016 popular vote, which he lost by nearly 3 million. While Charnin calling the Alabama victory of Jones fraudulent is therefore not surprising, Moore’s camp said that a thorough investigation should be launched based on his expertise.

 
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Posted by on December 31, 2017 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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Probability Analysis of Unlikely Historical Events

Richard Charnin
7/12/2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Did you ever view a discussion, much less a probability analysis of  these events in the mainstream media?

Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical probabilities
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/05/26/conspiracy-theories-and-mathematical-probabilities/

Unnatural Deaths of at least 78 JFK-related witnesses from 1963-1978.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/05/15/jfk-witness-deaths-calculating-the-probabilities/

Seth Rich and other DNC/Wikileaks-related suspicious deaths
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/05/20/quick-mortality-probability-calculator/

Election Fraud: True Vote vs. Recorded
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/06/25/election-fraud-an-introduction-to-exit-poll-probability-analysis/

Suspicious Deaths of 75 Bankers and 125 Scientists
Suspicious Deaths of 77 Holistic Doctors
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/05/24/a-probability-analysis-of-the-mysterious-deaths-of-125-scientists-and-75-bankers/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VdwJE_g5z3St3h2NbbXpau0DH7-g1y_98IKXRrt_9ao/edit#gid=496654748

Suspicious Deaths of 16 Microbiologists in 4 months
http://www.rigorousintuition.ca/board2/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=34755#p462796
http://911research.wtc7.net/post911/attacks/killings.html

10 Terrorist Attacks and Concurrent Drills
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/12/13/14991/

Cancer Deaths of 7 Latin American Leaders
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/03/14/latin-american-leaders-and-cancer-a-probability-analysis/

Mystery Deaths for various group size assumptions https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VdwJE_g5z3St3h2NbbXpau0DH7-g1y_98IKXRrt_9ao/edit#gid=252025167

No automatic alt text available.

 
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Posted by on July 14, 2017 in JFK, Uncategorized

 

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JFK: Videos that Prove a Conspiracy

JFK: Videos that Prove a Conspiracy

Richard Charnin
Dec. 13, 2014

Look inside the book:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

JFK Blog Posts
Warren Commission defenders say there is no evidence which proves a conspiracy. They need to go from the Boob Tube to YouTube.

Investigators
Mark Lane Rush to Judgment: https://youtu.be/qD4tTs9-2Xo?t=1
Jim Garrison http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hqo2c_SxQag?t=1
Church Committee http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ij1lSmvpgZQ

Witnesses
Grassy Knoll
– Oliver,Arnold, Hoffman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2U8jHKG74g
– Zapruder, Hill, Moorman, Newman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNclkrx9XMA
– S.M. Holland https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfRivH8G9tY

Roger Craig http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFEx8hjD8kE
Marina Oswald https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swHZ0DxB8n8
Judyth Baker https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGnYGiMvmKA

Dr Charles Crenshaw http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXZ87gOlKkM
E.H. Hunt http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4GD_PIbQZ4
LBJ Mistress http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79lOKs0Kr_Y

FBI Agents (autopsy)
O’Neill no bullet exit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMzhKy-O4T4
Sibert (Ford & Spector) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDNZBfPkbPk

Jack Ruby
LBJ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Udwj7i5ACgY
Polygraph http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxfXNzbSFcQ
True Facts/motive http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yv3o9vx3VNM
They knew Jack http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PuL2XPZ42Q

Expert Evidence
Jack White http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCigDMyHisE
Nathan Darby: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6tx3l8
Judyth Baker:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrIy3OPccn8&feature=youtu.be

Authors
Penn Jones https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xY7tBvZ6vuc
Fletcher Prouty: https://youtu.be/BJ0zLoy9FKM?t=1
James Douglass http://vimeo.com/35174755
Jim Marrs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhNgK_PJBTk
David Lifton https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQg91vALZv4
Roger Stone http://www.c-span.org/video/?316819-1/book-discussion-man-killed-kennedy

Doug Horne (ARRB)
Autopsy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LohiQe2LBg
Medical evidence https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrVyOYsx81k
Zapruder film http://vimeo.com/102327635

Documentaries
Oliver Stone https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhVflCawf7w
Nigel Turner https://youtu.be/x2agPurqFJk?t=1
Richard Belzer http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRajqoXzABw
Jesse Ventura https://youtu.be/MhvnWZP_uPQ?t=15

Movies
JFK https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JFK_(film)
Executive Action http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3uhs0j
The Missiles of October https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOjhSVpZOuM
Thirteen Days https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirteen_Days_(film)

 
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Posted by on December 13, 2014 in JFK

 

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JFK: How will the Warren Commission Apologists explain the Tippit Timeline?

Richard Charnin
Dec. 11, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

This is for Vincent Bugliosi, Gerald Posner, David Von Pein, John McAdams, Dave Reitzes, Dale Myers, Scott Aaronson, Bob Scheiffer, Rachel Maddow and other interested parties. Can any of you explain why the Warren Commission stated that Tippit was shot at 1:16pm when all the witnesses said it was no later than 1:06?

But first, please explain why the WC noted 1:16 as the time of Tippit’s death (at the SCENE of the shooting) since he was officially pronounced dead at 1:16 in Methodist Hospital? How did the ambulance get to the hospital before 1:16 if he was shot dead at 1:16?

Note: The death certificate from Methodist Hospital signed by Joe B. Brown lists the time of death at 1:15. The police supplementary offense report states that Dr. Liguori pronounced the officer dead at 1:15. An FBI report dated 11/29/63 in which Dr. Liguori pronounced the officer dead at 1:25 looks like it originally said 1:15 and was changed. The Dallas Police Homicide report signed by Liquori said Tippit was pronounced DOA at 1:30.

They had to add ten minutes to the time of Tppit’s death so that they could say Oswald shot him at 1:16. Oswald was spotted outside his apartment at 1:04. He could not have gone to the Tippit scene by 1:06. He would have had to run a 0.9 mile in two minutes. So they changed the time of the shooting to 1:16 – and had to change the time of the ambulance arrival at Methodist Hospital. It is all so transparent.

From S.r. Dusty Rohde, this is THE SMOKING GUN: https://22novembernetwork.wordpress.com/2014/11/15/the-murder-of-j-d-tippit-by-s-r-dusty-rohde/

The insert shown above is taken from the actual Certificate of Death, Tippit’s name was misspelled, but the document clearly shows the time and date of death. There is no way Lee Harvey Oswald shot a “living” J.D. Tippit at either 1:15 or 1:16pm. That statement by the Warren Commission was an outright lie. A lie expressed for the sole purpose of deceiving the American public.

The Warren Commission had the Tippit documents in their hands, they knew the “legal” time of death, they knew Oswald couldn’t have shot Tippit at 1:15 or 1:16pm, and yet they still chose to tell the lie.

J.D. Tippit could not have been shot at 1:16, his legal and lawful time of death is recorded as 1:16pm. Now why does that matter? Before Tippit was pronounced “dead” at the hospital, he had to be removed from the ambulance, wheeled to the emergency room, transferred off of the ambulance gurney onto the hospital bed. Doctors had to do a quick scan, then attempt to clear an airway and possibly administer CPR in the attempt to save Tippit’s life, all “before” declaring the man officially dead.
————————————————————————–
Now, about those witnesses, this is what they said:

These are the witnesses:
• DPD Channel 1 dispatcher Murray Jackson contacts Tippit at 1:03 to get his location but gets no response. https://jaylipp.fatcow.com/JFK/tippet.html

• Dallas County Sheriff Deputy Roger Craig hears of the Tippit shooting at 1:06 over the police radio. http://www.ratical.org/ratville/JFK/WTKaP.pdf

• T.F Bowley arrives at the scene at 1:10. http://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth339132/

• According to Warren Commission exhibit 705, immediately following T.F Bowley’s transmission at 1:10, the DPD dispatcher called over DPD Channel 1 radio that Tippit had been shot. http://www.aarclibrary.org/publib/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh17/pdf/WH17_CE_705.pdf

And there were many more…
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/jfk-did-oswald-shoot-tippit-eyewitnesses-no-warren-commission-yes/

 
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Posted by on December 11, 2014 in JFK

 

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Reclaiming Science: the JFK Conspiracy

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

Kindle version

Warren Commission defenders and the Corporate Media avoid the evidence and continue to promote the bogus Single Bullet Theory, claiming that Oswald was the lone shooter, despite overwhelming evidence that he was not on the 6th floor of the Texas Book Depository. In fact, he was photographed standing on the first floor watching the motorcade.

The mainstream media has lost all credibility and must be considered complicit in the ongoing 50 year cover-up.

The 1973 film Executive Action disclosed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated a one in 100,000 trillion probability of eighteen material JFK-related witness deaths in the three years following the assassination. The calculation was mathematical proof of a conspiracy. After all, a professional actuary who has passed difficult mathematical exams would be expected to come up with a good estimate of the odds; that is what he does for a living.

In 1978 the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) dismissed the actuary’s odds, stating the odds were invalid because the universe of witnesses was “unknowable”. But there were 552 Warren Commission witnesses and approximately five hundred others who were sought to testify at the Garrison trial, Church senate hearings and the HSCA. The HSCA did not consider unnatural deaths which comprised the majority of suspicious deaths; it noted just 21 suspicious deaths. But when there were at least 122 by 1978. The actuary’s identity and methodology was never revealed.

In 1989 Jim Marrs published Crossfire in which he listed 103 convenient JFK-related deaths. Along with Jim Garrison’s On the Trail of the Assassins, Crossfire was the basis for Oliver Stone’s historic JFK. In 2003, using Marrs’ list, I calculated the probability of at least 15 unnatural witness deaths in the first year, essentially confirming the actuary’s calculation. My analysis is referenced in Marrs’ updated 2013 edition of Crossfire.

In 2014, I wrote Reclaiming Science: the JFK Conspiracy. It is a comprehensive statistical and reference analysis of unnatural JFK-related deaths, Dealey Plaza eyewitness observations, medical, acoustic and photographic evidence. Reclaiming Science challenges the corporate media to let scientific and JFK experts present the facts and debate Warren Commission apologists in full public view.

 

 
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Posted by on October 24, 2014 in JFK

 

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JFK: Warren Commission Apologists Comment on the Evidence

JFK: Warren Commission Apologists Comment on the Evidence

Richard Charnin
Oct.6, 2014
Updated: Oct.16,2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

LN: Lone Nutter (Warren Commission apologist)

1. The Badgeman photo was declared authentic by MIT and other photo analysts.
LN: MIT and all the others were wrong. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/Badgeman_coloured.jpg

2. Witness testimony that Tippet was killed no later than 1:06 proves that Oswald could not have been the shooter.
LN: All the witnesses at the scene were mistaken. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/jfk-did-oswald-shoot-tippit-eyewitnesses-no-warren-commission-yes/

3. All Parkland doctors and witnesses said they observed a small throat entrance wound and a massive head exit wound. This proves there were at least two shots from the front and destroys the Single Bullet Theory.
LN: The Parkland doctors were mistaken. They never saw the head wound. http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/8804/backofheadorangesizedwo.jpg

4. Jack Ruby said it was a conspiracy and LBJ was involved.
LN: Ruby was lying. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zd4r4O0o_Y

5. Parkland Dr. Charles Crenshaw viewed a neck entrance wound and head exit wound.
LN: Crenshaw was mistaken. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXZ87gOlKkM

6. The Altgens6 photo was altered to eliminate Oswald in the doorway.
LN: There was no alteration. Lovelady is Doorman. http://www.veteranstoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/GrodenAnnot-one-half14.jpg

7. The JFK autopsy photos of the head exit wound were covered.
LN: The following top view was altered to show an exit head wound; the back view is unaltered and does not show an exit wound. http://www.celebritymorgue.com/jfk/jfk-autopsy.html

8. The figure in the Altgens6 photo sitting in front whose face is cut out is Billy Lovelady. The cutout is not an arm. No one holds their arms VERTICALLY OVER the eyes to shade them; if they did, they would not be able to see. We hold our arm(s) HORIZONTALLY ABOVE our eyes to shade them from the sun.
LN: That is not a cutout of Lovelady. It was just a photo processing glitch. http://betshort.com/loveos.gif

9. An FBI official attending the autopsy claimed there was no bullet exit from the back wound.
LN: The FBI official was either lying or mistaken. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMzhKy-O4T4

10. Wesley Frazier testified five different times that Lovelady was standing in front of him on the STEPS of the TSBD. If so, Lovelady could not have been Doorman who was standing on the TOP level (first floor).
LN: Frazier was mistaken in all five statements. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/07/10851/

11. A pixelation analysis of Doorman’s shirt by Judyth Baker proves LHO was Doorman.
LN: The analysis is bogus, junk science. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1X2eD2Wl3xSmRHTuE02ntfYkb3ES2Kuo8wl3HHzzAlD8/pub

12. Doorman’s shirt in Altgens6 matched that of Oswald in custody.
LN: it is not the same shirt Oswald was wearing in custody. https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ-FeA_djwkRgNMUeGWcRuJNyXfghtQcvkzVC9bpY3JI8jlhZMn

13. Doug Horne (ARRB) and Dino Brugioni (world class photo interpreter) proved that the Zapruder film was altered and the chain of custody was broken. The film does not show the JFK Limo stop seen by 33 witnesses.
LN: Horne and Brugioni are mistaken. The Limo never stopped. The 33 witnesses were all mistaken. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGr21FZBVL4

14. The Oswald backyard photos were faked; the face is pasted from the same cutout in each of the four photos.
LN: the fact that there is no change in expression or position is not proof of fakery https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSmOS3BGFVo

15. Gerald Ford of the Warren Commission moved the back wound (which never exited) up 5” to make it conform to the Magic Bullet exiting the neck.
LN: Ford wanted to fix the error in the evidence and did nothing wrong. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDNZBfPkbPk

16. The Single Bullet Theory was a contrived farce because the Warren Commission needed to have two bullets cause seven wounds in JFK and Connally.
LN: Arlen Spector would not just make it up. Gerald Ford moved the back wound up a few inches to indicate the true location of the entrance wound at the base of the neck described by Spector. FBI officials Sibert and O’Neill both lied when they claimed there was no exit from the back wound. http://bullet.my3gb.com/images/4-kennedy-magic-bullet.jpg

17. At least 78 of 1400+ JFK-related witnesses listed in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination died unnaturally from 1964-78. Only 17 were expected statistically. The probability is E-62 (one in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion).
LN: The witnesses were not directly related. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

18. At least 40 of 656 JFK-related witnesses listed in Simkin’s JFK Index died unnaturally from 1964-78. Only 8 were expected statistically. The probability is E-37 (one in a trillion trillion trillion).
LN: The only reason the witnesses were included by Simkin is because they died. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/12/25/jfk-related-unnatural-and-suspicious-deaths-in-the-jfk-calc-spreadsheet-and-simkins-jfk-index/

19. At least 51 of 122 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet/database were located in the Dallas area. The obvious connection is the JFK assassination.
LN: The witnesses were self-selected. It was just a coincidence. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=55

20. 33 of 59 witnesses said the JFK limo came to a FULL stop. The probability they would all be mistaken is ZERO. This proves that the Zapruder film was altered since it does not show a full stop.
LN: Witness testimony is unreliable. The calculation is invalid. The Zapruder film was not altered. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/jfk-assassination-mathematical-proof-that-the-zapruder-film-was-altered/

 
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Posted by on October 6, 2014 in JFK

 

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To Believe the Zapruder Film was Not Altered, You Must Believe…

Richard Charnin
July 21, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

To Believe the Zapruder Film was Not Altered, You Must Believe…

– The JFK limo did not come to a complete stop. Thirty-three (33) of 59 witnesses were mistaken.
– The Zapruder film was not shown until 1975 because it was too gruesome, not because it falsely depicted the actual event.

– Frame 313 is authentic. It is the only frame which shows the effects of the fatal head shot.
– In Frame 313 the pink explosion at the right front of JFK’s head indicates the shot came from behind.
– The Parkland hospital and autopsy witnesses who described a fist-size exit wound in the right rear of JFK’s head were all mistaken.

– SS agent Clint Hill did not cover the bodies of JFK and Jackie Kennedy.
– Hill was mistaken in describing a right-rear head exit wound
– DPD Harkins was mistaken in his claim of crossing the street between the limo and the follow-up car.

– ARRB Lead Investigator Doug Horne was mistaken in claiming that the film’s chain of custody was not sent directly to Life Magazine the day after the assassination but went to the CIA’s primary photo analysis facility in Washington DC, the National Photographic Interpretation Center (NPIC).
– Horne is mistaken in stating that “the real exit wound behind President Kennedy’s right ear, in the back of his head has been blacked out on the film, a false exit wound has been painted onto the right front and the top of his head, to mimic the autopsy photos”.
– Horne is mistaken in claiming that “You do not see any exit debris leaving the back of President Kennedy’s head and traveling to the rear in the Zapruder film. So if the car stop has been removed which it may have and if the exit debris leaving the back of his head has been removed, I should say that they’re not present, so therefore I suspect they’ve been removed.”
– Horne is mistaken in claiming that the agent who delivered the film to NPIC on the second night to make a second set of briefing boards and said it came from Hawkeye Works, the CIA’s secret photo lab at Kodak headquarters in Rochester NY.

– Dino Brugioni, Duty Officer at NPIC, the photo expert who saw the original Z-film on Nov.22, was mistaken in claiming that a) the head shot did not look anything like the extant Z-film, b) the rear head wound resulted in a white cloud of brain matter which was visible in a number of frames, not just 313.

– Motion picture film professionals who said the dark patches in blacked out areas of the Z-film did not look like natural shadows were mistaken.
– All seven experts in the post production of motion pictures and special effects who viewed the high definition scans of each frame of the Z=film were mistaken in claiming that the head wounds were poorly altered.

Doug Horne and Dino Brugioni: http://vimeo.com/102327635
http://jfkfacts.org/assassination/rewinding-the-zapruder-film/

Jim Fetzer Interview of Doug Horne: http://nwopodcast.com/fetz/media/jim%20fetzer%20real%20deal-doug%20horne.mp3

Doug Horne provides details of the true chain of custody, where, why and how the film was altered in this very comprehensive piece: http://assassinationofjfk.net/the-two-npic-zapruder-film-events-signposts-pointing-to-the-films-alteration/

This mathematical proof that the Z-film was altered is based on Vince Palamara’s article (33 of 59 eyewitnesses saw a FULL JFK limo STOP): https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/jfk-assassination-mathematical-proof-that-the-zapruder-film-was-altered/

John Costella on the Z-film hoax: http://assassinationscience.com/johncostella/jfk/intro/
A detailed frame-by-frame analysis based on basic optical physics calculations:
http://johncostella.com/jfk/#duluth

Oliver Stone on Democracy Now: the Z-film was altered: http://www.infowars.com/oliver-stone-zapruder-film-was-altered/

Philip Stahl (“Copernicus”): a mathematical analysis confirms that the Z-film was altered and the removal of frames does not invalidate the acoustic evidence. http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2010/02/was-zapruder-film-tampered-with.html

This blogger changed his mind and is now convinced the Z-film was altered: http://theamericanchronicle.blogspot.com/2013/04/was-zapruder-film-altered-redux.html

 
3 Comments

Posted by on July 22, 2014 in JFK

 

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JFK: Debunking Scott Aaronson’s “Twenty Reasons to Believe Oswald Acted Alone”

JFK: Debunking Scott Aaronson’s “Twenty Reasons to Believe Oswald Acted Alone”

Richard Charnin
April 30, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

I came across this blog post by Scott Aaronson: Twenty Reasons to Believe Oswald Acted Alone. http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=1596

I replied with a brief one paragraph comment which was not posted. This is a response to each of the twenty reasons.

Aaronson is a 33 year old quantum physicist who readily admits he is unfamiliar with the evidence and is new to the JFK assassination. But it is the detailed factual evidence which proves a conspiracy. Aaronson states opinions which rehash the standard disinformation playbook of myths contrived to frame truth seeking researchers as conspiracy theory (CT) buffs. His lack of knowledge of relevant historical events prior and subsequent to the assassination is apparent. One can only conclude that he has been brainwashed by a complicit corporate media and academia which has covered up the assassination evidence for fifty years.

Why would someone so disciplined in the scientific method fail to do his homework? He notes that his heroes Carl Sagan and Bertrand Russell were conspiracy believers. It may be that for the 50th anniversary of the assassination, Scott felt compelled to write something quickly – without getting into the wealth of inconvenient details and facts. But the devil is in the details.

Aaronson states: I also started dipping, for the first time in my life, into a tiny fraction of the vast literature about the JFK assassination. The trigger (so to speak) for me was this article by David Talbot, the founder of Salon.com. http://www.salon.com/2013/11/06/the_jfk_assassination_we_still_dont_know_what_happened/.
I figured, if the founder of Salon is a JFK conspiracy buff—if, for crying out loud, my skeptical heroes Bertrand Russell and Carl Sagan were both JFK conspiracy buffs—then maybe it’s at least worth familiarizing myself with the basic facts and arguments.

But another reason is that I’m skeptical that anyone actually comes to believe the JFK conspiracy hypothesis because they don’t see how the second bullet came in at the appropriate angle to pass through JFK’s neck and shoulder and then hit Governor Connally.

RC: JFK was hit in the back 5.5 inches below the collar by a bullet on a downward trajectory which did not exit. I am more than skeptical – actually dumbfounded- that anyone actually believes the Single Bullet Theory. There are three possibilities: the believer is a) unfamiliar with the evidence, b) familiar with the evidence but is dumb as rocks, or c) a JFK disinformationist.

Scott is surely unaware of Gerald Ford’s moving the back wound up to conform to the Magic Bullet’s bogus point of entry: http://www.jfklancer.com/Ford-Rankin.html

Update: Philip Stahl is an astronomer, mathematician and physicist who posts as “Copernicus”. I sent him a link to this post. He closes the book on Aaronson with a series of devastating articles.
http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2014/10/why-some-quantum-physicists-need-to.html http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2014/10/scott-aaronson-in-over-his-head-on-jfk.html http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2014/10/rebuttal-of-scott-aarons-2o-reasons-for.html http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2014/10/rebuttal-of-scott-aaronsons-20-reasons.html

Aaronson never considered the following facts and analysis before claiming to believe the Warren Commission report that Oswald was the “lone nut” assassin.

1) To believe that Oswald killed JFK you must believe the following: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/09/15/to-believe-that-oswald-killed-jfk-you-must-believe-that/

2) 16 mindblowing facts about who killed JFK: http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/277-75/20557-16-mind-blowing-facts-about-who-really-killed-jfk

3) 20 questions and answers on the JFK Calc spreadsheet: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/04/09/jfk-calc-questions-on-the-spreadsheet-analysis/

This is a summary of Aaronson’s twenty reasons followed by my comments.

1. Conspiracy Buff Psychology
Conspiracy theorizing represents a known bug in the human nervous system. Given that, I think our prior should be overwhelmingly against anything that even looks like a conspiracy theory.

RC: History has taught us just the opposite. People conspire all the time.

2. Ruby: Genesis of Conspiracy thinking
The shooting of Oswald by Jack Ruby created the perfect conditions for conspiracy theorizing to fester.

RC: So, wouldn’t that be a normal, rational response. To permanently silence the patsy? And Ruby himself confirmed it was a conspiracy multiple times.

3. Historical Lone Nuts
Other high-profile assassinations to which we might compare this one—for example, those of Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley, RFK, Martin Luther King Jr., Gandhi, Yitzchak Rabin…—appear to have been the work of “lone nuts,” or at most “conspiracies” of small numbers of lowlifes. So why not this one?

RC: You don’t know that they were killed by “lone nuts”. Did it ever occur to you that the targets were all liberals who wanted change? JFK was a liberal who wanted to change things.

4. LHO the psychopath
Oswald seems to have perfectly fit the profile of a psychopathic killer (see, for example, Case Closed by Gerald Posner).

RC: You should know what people who knew Oswald had to say. Quite the opposite of the Posner propaganda piece. Here are some things you don’t know about Oswald. http://my.firedoglake.com/sancheq/2013/11/23/things-you-never-knew-about-lee-harvey-oswald/

5. No evidence of others
A half-century of investigation has failed to link any individual besides Oswald to the crime. Conspiracy theorists love to throw around large, complicated entities like the CIA or the Mafia as potential “conspirators”—but in the rare cases when they’ve tried to go further, and implicate an actual human being other than Oswald or Ruby (or distant power figures like LBJ), the results have been pathetic and tragic.

RC: Oswald never had a trial. Even Posner admits he would never have been convicted as there is no evidence that he was on the 6th floor of the TSBD at 12:30. The Altgens6 photo is strong evidence that he was on the first floor watching the motorcade. Conspirators included Clay Shaw, Jack Ruby, David Ferrie, Hunt and the Cubans, et al. You call the Shaw trial “pathetic and tragic”, but even though he was acquitted, the jurors said that they were convinced it was a conspiracy. Shaw was a contract CIA agent who lied at his trial. CIA Director Helms admitted Shaw was a CIA operative in 1979. David Ferrie was murdered shortly after he was named as a witness. Garrison’s case was sabotaged. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hqo2c_SxQag

There were at least 78 material witness deaths that were officially ruled unnatural and at least forty other suspicious heart attacks and sudden cancers. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

6. Gen. Walker shooting
Oswald had previously tried to assassinate General Walker—a fact that was confirmed by his widow Marina Oswald, but that, incredibly, is barely even discussed in the reams of conspiracy literature.

RC: LHO did not shoot Walker. There is no evidence of that. Marina was forced to say it to protect her kids; she claimed it was not true years later. http://22november1963.org.uk/did-lee-oswald-shoot-general-edwin-walker
There are many problems with the case against Oswald. http://michaelgriffith1.tripod.com/faulty.htm

7. The Tippit canard
There’s clear evidence that Oswald murdered Officer Tippit an hour after shooting JFK—a fact that seems perfectly consistent with the state of mind of someone who’d just murdered the President, but that, again, seems to get remarkably little discussion in the conspiracy literature.

RC: LHO did not shoot Tippit. It was physically impossible.  LHO was seen standing at a bus stop near his rooming house at 1:04pm. According to 10 witnesses, Tippit was shot at 1:06. The Warren Commission ignored  all witness testimony. The WC claimed Tippit was shot at 1:15. They had to do this to give Oswald enough time to get to the scene. It was impossible for Oswald to travel one mile in two minutes. The world’s fastest milers need just under 4 minutes.  The bullets recovered  were from an automatic and did not match Oswald’s revolver. Eyewitnesses saw two shooters. Let’s end this crap. http://www.assassinationresearch.com/v1n2/tippit.pdf http://educationforum.ipbhost.com/index.php?showtopic=12745

8. Oswald a violent, pathological liar
Besides being a violent nut, Oswald was also a known pathological liar. He lied on his employment applications, he lied about having established a thriving New Orleans branch of Fair Play for Cuba, he lied and lied and lied.

RC: Thriving branch? That’s a joke. Oswald was working for Guy Banister (FBI) to distribute leaflets to stage a fake altercation. Oswald was CIA and an FBI informer.

9. Oswald attitude in custody
According to police accounts, Oswald acted snide and proud of himself after being taken into custody.

RC: That is untrue. When will you provide specifics? See the testimony of Detective Will Fritz. Oswald could not reveal his ties to the FBI and CIA. He was calm, cool and asked for legal representation.

10. Conspiracy Theories are wildly inconsistent
Almost all JFK conspiracy theories must be false, simply because they’re mutually inconsistent.

RC: Cite the theories and the inconsistencies. Can you provide specifics? Yes, some theories are false, created by disinformationists to confuse the public (such as the REELZ “Smoking Gun” fiasco).

11. Witnesses are unreliable
The case for Oswald as lone assassin seems to become stronger, the more you focus on the physical evidence and stuff that happened right around the time and place of the event. To an astonishing degree, the case for a conspiracy seems to rely on verbal testimony years or decades afterward—often by people who are known confabulators, who were nowhere near Dealey Plaza at the time, who have financial or revenge reasons to invent stories, and who “remembered” seeing Oswald and Ruby with CIA agents, etc. only under drugs or hypnosis. This is precisely the pattern we would expect if conspiracy theorizing reflected the reality of the human nervous system rather than the reality of the assassination.

RC: There were 200 witnesses in Dealey Plaza. Over 90 said they heard shots from the Grassy Knoll; about 45 at the TSBD. Were they all liars or mistaken? Were they inventing stories? What about the Parkland doctors who all said the throat wound was one of entrance and the head wound an exit? You are sadly misinformed about one-sided witness testimony which indicates at least one addition shooter at the Grassy Knoll. Why do you avoid specifics? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=65

12. Assassination motive
If the conspiracy is so powerful, why didn’t it do something more impressive than just assassinate JFK? Why didn’t it rig the election to prevent JFK from becoming President in the first place?

RC: JFK had many enemies: Big Oil, Military Industrial Establishment, anti-Castro Cubans, mobsters, Joint Chiefs. The public execution gave a message to all future presidents.

13. Who hired the shooters?
Pretty much all the conspiracy writers I encountered exude total, 100% confidence, not only in the existence of additional shooters, but in the guilt of their favored villains (they might profess ignorance, but then in the very next sentence they’d talk about how JFK’s murder was “a triumph for the national security establishment”).

RC: 100% confidence is justified by ballistic, video, acoustic and eyewitness evidence which all point to at least one more shooter behind the picket fence at the Grassy Knoll.

14. Too big to cover up, someone would have talked
Every conspiracy theory I’ve encountered seems to require “uncontrolled growth” in size and complexity: that is, the numbers of additional shooters, alterations of medical records, murders of inconvenient witnesses, coverups, coverups of the coverups, etc. that need to be postulated all seem to multiply without bound.

RC: That’s because the evidence, which you are apparently unaware of, is overwhelming. Why do you ignore this evidence? There were over 100 material witness unnatural deaths. The probability is ZERO.

15. JFK the conservative
JFK was not a liberal Messiah. He moved slowly on civil rights for fear of a conservative backlash, invested heavily in building nukes, signed off on the botched plans to kill Fidel Castro, and helped lay the groundwork for the US’s later involvement in Vietnam. Yes, it’s possible that he would’ve made wiser decisions about Vietnam than LBJ ended up making; that’s part of what makes his assassination (like RFK’s later assassination) a tragedy. But many conspiracy theorists’ view of JFK as an implacable enemy of the military-industrial complex is preposterous.

RC: Yes, JFK moved slowly on civil rights, but then in 1962 he ordered integration at the Univ. of Alabama and gave the first great presidential speech for black equality. He did not seek to kill Castro; he was negotiating for peaceful coexistence with Castro and Khruschev behind the scenes. The CIA and the military were determined to force the issue, even after JFK ordered the anti-Castro camps shut down. He signed a memorandum to pull out of Vietnam by 1965 and the Test Ban Treaty with the Russians in 1963.

16. LBJ the liberal
By the same token, LBJ was not exactly a right-wing conspirator’s dream candidate. He was, if anything, more aggressive on poverty and civil rights than JFK was. And even if he did end up being better for certain military contractors, that’s not something that would’ve been easy to predict in 1963, when the US’s involvement in Vietnam had barely started.

RC: LBJ was NOT a liberal; he was forced to appear as one to placate the left and carry on JFK’s initiative on civil rights. LBJ gave the military the Vietnam War they wanted by staging the bogus Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1964. He kept the oil depletion allowance for his Texas buddies.

17. Conspiracy buffs have a nervous system disorder
Lots of politically-powerful figures have gone on the record as believers in a conspiracy, including John Kerry, numerous members of Congress, and even frequently-accused conspirator LBJ himself. Some people would say that this lends credibility to the conspiracy cause. To me, however, it indicates just the opposite: that there’s no secret cabal running the world, and that those in power are just as prone to bugs in the human nervous system as anyone else is.

RC: What a ridiculous statement! Its just the opposite. So your heroes Sagan and Bertrand Russell suffered this disorder? Where is your logic? If anything, coincidence theorists like yourself suffer from massive propaganda disorientation. To believe everything the government claims is a severe attention disorder.

18. The intelligence agency incompetence canard
As far as I can tell, the conspiracy theorists are absolutely correct that JFK’s security in Dallas was unbelievably poor; that the Warren Commission was as interested in reassuring the nation and preventing a war with the USSR or Cuba as it was in reaching the truth (the fact that it did reach the truth is almost incidental); and that agencies like the CIA and FBI kept records related to the assassination classified for way longer than there was any legitimate reason to (though note that most records finally were declassified in the 1990s, and they provided zero evidence for any conspiracy). As you might guess, I ascribe all of these things to bureaucratic incompetence rather than to conspiratorial ultra-competence. But once again, these government screwups help us understand how so many intelligent people could come to believe in a conspiracy even in the total absence of one.

RC: It’s always incompetence, never venality. Sorry, the agencies are not incompetent. Total absence of a conspiracy? You ignore or are ignorant of the totality of evidence which proves a conspiracy.

19. Psychological need to call it a conspiracy
In the context of the time, the belief that JFK was killed by a conspiracy filled a particular need: namely, the need to believe that the confusing, turbulent events of the 1960s had an understandable guiding motive behind them, and that a great man like JFK could only be brought down by an equally-great evil, rather than by a chronically-unemployed loser who happened to see on a map that JFK’s motorcade would be passing by his workplace.

RC: Oh, really? We need a conspiracy to satisfy our need for excitement? Wrong. We need to learn the truth. You believe that only a Lone Nut would want to bring down JFK or RFK, or MLK, or John Lennon, or JFK,Jr, or Wellstone, or Gandhi, etc. It’s never a conspiracy. That is very naive. Newsflash! We live in a world of conspiracies. It makes the world go round.

20. Can’t Connect the Dots
At its core, every conspiracy argument seems to be built out of “holes”: “the details that don’t add up in the official account,” “the questions that haven’t been answered,” etc. What I’ve never found is a truly coherent alternative scenario: just one “hole” after another. This pattern is the single most important red flag for me, because it suggests that the JFK conspiracy theorists view themselves as basically defense attorneys: people who only need to sow enough doubts, rather than establish the reality of what happened. Crucially, creationism, 9/11 trutherism, and every other elaborate-yet-totally-wrong intellectual edifice I’ve ever encountered has operated on precisely the same “defense attorney principle”: “if we can just raise enough doubts about the other side’s case, we win!” But that’s a terrible approach to knowledge, once you’ve seen firsthand how a skilled arguer can raise unlimited doubts even about the nonexistence of a monster under your bed. Such arguers are hoping, of course, that you’ll find their monster hypothesis so much more fun, exciting, and ironically comforting than the “random sounds in the night hypothesis,” that it won’t even occur to you to demand they show you their monster.

RC
You avoid any and all analysis of the evidence. You make pompous claims which have no basis in fact and just perpetuate myths while admitting ignorance of the facts and evidence of the assassination. You employ Warren Commission apologist propaganda and parrot lies that have been promoted by the corporate media – who refuse to consider, much less debate, the evidence. Hear no evil; see no evil.

 
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Posted by on April 29, 2014 in JFK

 

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The New JFK Calc Witness Spreadsheet: Absolute Numerical Proof of a Conspiracy

The New JFK Calc Witness Spreadsheet: Absolute Numerical Proof of a Conspiracy

Richard Charnin
Feb. 27, 2014
Updated March 1, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

The JFK Calc spreadsheet was originally created to analyze unnatural witness death probabilities. It has been expanded to include live witness testimony.

1) Material Witness Deaths
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/02/25/executive-action-jfk-witness-deaths-and-the-london-times-actuary/
A detailed analysis of 122 JFK-related witness deaths (78 unnatural) from 1964-78 shows that the probabilities of the deaths are 1 in trillions. It confirmed the London Times actuary’s calculation which was dismissed by the HSCA lead statistician as invalid with the bogus claim that there was no way to determine the extent of the witness universe.

The HSCA did not mention the Warren Commission’s 552 witnesses and the 1100+ sought to testify in four investigations. Even more astounding, the HSCA failed to mention that 7 top FBI who were sought to testify at the HSCA itself all died within a 6 month period in 1977. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=0

2) Dealey Plaza Witnesses: Origin of shots http://spot.acorn.net/jfkplace/09/fp.back_issues/12th_Issue/51_wits.html
In three of four surveys, a large majority of witnesses said shots came from the Grassy Knoll. Only John McAdams survey showed a TSBD majority.
In the Adjusted survey, 92 witnesses said shots were from the Grassy Knoll. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=65

Origin.......Feldman McAdams Galanor Adjusted
Grassy Knoll....51......35......52......83
Book Depository.32......61......48......37
GK and TSBD......0.......2.......5.......9

3) Time interval between shots
http://www.dufourlaw.com/JFK/shot_pattern_excerpt.PDF http://spot.acorn.net/jfkplace/09/fp.back_issues/11th_Issue/guns_dp.html
A “double-bang” of nearly simultaneous shots was reported by at least 44 witnesses.This was impossible for a bolt-action Mannlicher-Carcano with telescopic sight; it required at least 2.3 seconds between shots.  Secret Service Agent Roy Kellerman described the shots as a “flurry” and had “practically no time element between them.” https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=64

4) JFK Limo Speed http://www.acorn.net/jfkplace/09/fp.back_issues/27th_Issue/59_1.html
Thirty-three (33) of 59 witnesses stated that the Limo came to a full stop, 13 said it came to a near stop, 13 did not comment. Their testimony contradicts the Zapruder film which does not even show a near stop. It is clear proof that the film must have been altered. The eyewitnesses confirmed the photographic experts and others who claimed to have seen the original. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=63

5) Description of JFK Wounds: Parkland and Autopsy
http://www.history-matters.com/essays/jfkmed/How5Investigations/How5InvestigationsGotItWrong_tabfig.htm
The initial observations of 44 Parkland Hospital and Autopsy witnesses depicted a gaping exit wound in the right rear of JFK’s skull, indicating a shot from the front.The Parkland doctors also observed an entrance wound to the throat.

Note: Disregard the summary in the following caption. The author is obviously a WC  apologist. He has it completely wrong. The witnesses spoke the truth. The photos that the author refers to were doctored to cover up the head wound. The drawing reflects the truth.

The one-sided eyewitness evidence constitutes overwhelming proof of a conspiracy. The mainstream media is complicit in propagating transparent Warren Commission lies in the 50 year cover-up. Why does it continue to hide the facts? It should allow a prime-time debate between JFK truth seekers and Warren Commission apologists. There is no longer any doubt. Lee Harvey Oswald was just a patsy and never fired a shot. The history books will have to be re-written.

 
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Posted by on February 27, 2014 in JFK

 

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JFK: “Double Bang” Witness Testimony

JFK Witness Testimony on Hearing a Double Bang: A Math Analysis

Richard Charnin
Feb. 8, 2014
Updated: May 21, 2014

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In the article The Guns of Dealey Plaza by John S. Craig, the author lists 22 individuals who testified they heard a “double bang”: the final two of three shots occurred nearly simultaneously.

If Oswald was the only shooter there would have been at least 2.3 seconds between shots, assuming he used the telescopic sight found on the Mannlicher Carcano.

If we assume a 0.50 probability that a given witness was correct in hearing two shots fired nearly simultaneously, then the probability of the witness being mistaken is also 0.50. The probability that ALL 22 witnesses listed below were mistaken is
P= 0.5^22 = 0.000000238 or 1 in 4 million.That is also the probability that Oswald fired the shots, since the Carcano was a bolt-action rifle and incapable of being fired at “double-bang” speed.

Andrew Mason determined that at least 44 witnesses heard a double bang. The probability all 44 would be mistaken is P=.5^44 = 5.7E-14 (1 in 17 trillion). http://www.dufourlaw.com/JFK/shot_pattern_excerpt.PDF

Let N = the number of witnesses who claimed shots came from the grassy knoll.
N Probability
22 2.4E-07
33 1.2E-10
44 5.7E-14

The Double Bang
http://spot.acorn.net/jfkplace/09/fp.back_issues/11th_Issue/guns_dp.html.
John Craig wrote:
The Warren Commission’s official conclusion concerning the “Number of Shots” states that all the shots were fired from the sixth-floor window at the southeast corner of the Texas School Book Depository Building. [58] The Commission stated that a consensus among witnesses at the scene was that three shots were fired, though some heard two shots and others heard four and perhaps as many as five or six shots. [59]

Numerous descriptions of the last two shots by so many witnesses leaves doubt as to whether Oswald was physically capable of firing both of the shots that so many characterized as being shot almost simultaneously, if not “automatically.”

It was the Commission’s belief that (a) one shot passed through the President’s neck and caused all of Governor Connally’s wounds, (b) a subsequent shot hit the President’s head, (c) no other shot struck any part of the automobile, and (d) three shots were fired with one missing, though which one missed is unknown. [60] “Two bullets probably caused all the wounds suffered by President Kennedy and Governor Connally. Since the preponderance of the evidence indicated that three shots were fired, the Commission concluded that one shot probably missed the Presidential limousine and its occupants, and that the three shots were fired in a time period ranging from approximately 4.8 to in excess of seven seconds.” [61]

FBI tests for the Warren Commission found that a 6.5 Mannlicher Carcano, bolt-action rifle, Model 91/38 required a minimum of 2.3 seconds to fire two shots. [62] The HSCA made tests in which the telescopic sight was removed to see how fast the rifle could be fired without aiming. Its tests resulted in firings of 1.65, 1.75, and just over two seconds. [63] The only way that the rifle could be fired this quickly was to simply maneuver the bolt action as fast as possible and shoot. The tests were not done with Oswald’s Mannlicher Carcano. Whether Oswald’s rifle was in a condition where it could be tested is questionable since “the pressure to open the bolt was so great that we tended to move the rifle off the target,” according to one of the Warren Commission testers. [64]

If Oswald were the only shooter there would have to be at least 2.3 seconds between shots, assuming he used the telescopic sight found on the Mannlicher Carcano. The three shots that the Warren Commission claimed were fired from Oswald’s rifle could not have been shot faster than 6.9 seconds, including the minimum of 2.3 seconds to set for the first shot. Secret Service Agent Roy Kellerman described the shots as a “flurry.” Two of the shots were often described by witnesses as so closely spaced that they seemed “simultaneous” and had “practically no time element between them.” Additionally, there is a substantial amount of testimony, presented in this article, that describes the later shots as sounding different from the first shot. Governor Connally’s initial reaction to the gunfire was “that there were either two or three people involved or more in this or someone was shooting with an automatic rifle.” [65]

A double sound, or bang, is described by three Secret Service agents. Two of these agents sat within feet of Kennedy as occupants of the limousine. A double shot was reported by one of the witnesses standing on the overpass.

1. Special Agent William Greer, the limousine driver, testified that “the last two shots seemed to be just simultaneously, one behind the other.” [66].

2. Secret Service Roy Kellerman sat next to Greer and was intimately familiar with the sound of weapons. Kellerman testified: ” Let me give you an illustration … You have heard the sound barrier, of a plane breaking the sound barrier, bang, bang? That is it. It was like a doublebang — bang, bang.” [67]

3. Special Agent George Hickey (in reference to the second and third shots). “At the moment he was almost sitting erect I heard two reports, which I thought were shots and that appeared to me completely different in sound than the first report and were in such rapid succession that there seemed to be practically no time element between them.” [80]

4. Special Agent Clint Hill told the Commission that the second noise he heard was different from the first shot ” … like the sound of shooting a revolver into something hard… almost a double sound.” [69]

5. S.M. Holland carefully watched the motorcade from the railroad overpass. He heard four shots with the third and fourth sounding like a “double shot.” He thought some of the shots came from behind the fence on the grassy knoll.

6. Deputy Sheriff Roger Craig: “The first shot … sort of like it reverberated … well, it was quite a pause between there [the first and second shots] … It could have been a little longer [than two or three seconds]… ” Between the second and third shots there was “no more than two seconds. It was–they were real rapid.” [71]

6. Joe R. Molina, witness “… Of course, the first shot was fired then there was an interval between the first and second, longer than the second and third.” [72]

7. DPD Seymour Weitzman. “First one, then the second two seemed to be simultaneously.” [73]

8. Ladybird Johnson. ” … suddenly there was a sharp loud report–a shot. It seemed to me to come from the right, above my shoulder, from a building. Then a moment and then two more shots in rapid succession.” [74]

9. Secret Service Special Agent Forrest V. Sorrels. “There was to me about twice as much time between the first and second shots as there was between the second and third shots.” [75]

10. Congressman Ralph W. Yarborough. “… by my estimate–to me there seemed to be a longer time between the first and second shots, a much shorter time between the second and third shots…

11. Dallas Mayor Earle Cabell. “There was a longer pause between the first and second shots than there was between the second and third shots. They were in rather rapid succession.” [77]

12. Secret Service Special Agent Sam A. Kinney. “I saw the President lean toward the left and appeared to have grabbed his chest with his right hand. There was a second of pause and then two more shots were heard … ” [78]

13. Special Agent William A. McIntyre. “The Presidential vehicle was approximately 200 feet from the underpass when the first shot was fired, followed in quick succession by two more.

14. Special Agent Warren W. Taylor. “In the instant that my left foot touched the ground, I heard two more bangs and realized that they must be gun shots.” [81]

15. Linda Willis. “Yes, I heard one. Then there was a little bit of time, and then there were two real fast bullets together. When the first one hit, well, the President turned from waving to the people, and he grabbed his throat, and he kind of slumped forward, and then I couldn’t tell where the second shot went.” [82]

16. Special Agent Rufus Youngblood. “There seemed to be a longer span of time between the first and the second shot than there was between the second and third shot.” [83] ” … from the beginning at the sound of the first shot to the second or third shot, happened with a few seconds.” [84]

17. Robert Jackson. “I would say to me it seemed like three or four seconds between the first and the second, and between the second and third, well, I guess two seconds, they were very close together … ” [85]

18. Arnold Rowland. “The actual time between the reports I would say now, after having had time to consider the six seconds between the first and second report and two between the second and third.” [86]

19. Luke Mooney. “… The second and third shot was pretty close together, but there was a short lapse there between the first and second shot.” [87]

20. Ms. Mitchell (Mary Ann Mitchell). “… there were three—the second and third being closer together than the first and second … ” [88]

21. Lee Bowers “I heard three shots. One, then a slight pause, then two very close together … also reverberation from the shots.” [89]

22. Jean Hill. “There were three shots — one right after the other, and a distinct pause, or just a moment’s pause, and I heard more … ” And concerning the shots that followed the first three Ms. Hill said they were “quicker — more automatic.” [90]

 
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Posted by on February 8, 2014 in JFK

 

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