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Probability Analysis of Unlikely Historical Events

Richard Charnin
7/12/2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Did you ever view a discussion, much less a probability analysis of  these events in the mainstream media?

Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical probabilities
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/05/26/conspiracy-theories-and-mathematical-probabilities/

Unnatural Deaths of at least 78 JFK-related witnesses from 1963-1978.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/05/15/jfk-witness-deaths-calculating-the-probabilities/

Seth Rich and 8 other DNC-related suspicious deaths
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/05/20/quick-mortality-probability-calculator/

Election Fraud: True Vote vs. Recorded
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/06/25/election-fraud-an-introduction-to-exit-poll-probability-analysis/

Suspicious Deaths of 75 Bankers and 125 Scientists
Suspicious Deaths of 11 Holistic Doctors in 3 months
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/05/24/a-probability-analysis-of-the-mysterious-deaths-of-125-scientists-and-75-bankers/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VdwJE_g5z3St3h2NbbXpau0DH7-g1y_98IKXRrt_9ao/edit#gid=496654748

Suspicious Deaths of 16 Microbiologists in 4 months
http://www.rigorousintuition.ca/board2/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=34755#p462796
http://911research.wtc7.net/post911/attacks/killings.html

10 Terrorist Attacks and Concurrent Drills
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/12/13/14991/

Cancer Deaths of 7 Latin American Leaders
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/03/14/latin-american-leaders-and-cancer-a-probability-analysis/

Mystery Deaths for various group size assumptions https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VdwJE_g5z3St3h2NbbXpau0DH7-g1y_98IKXRrt_9ao/edit#gid=252025167

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Posted by on July 14, 2017 in JFK, Uncategorized

 

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JFK: Videos that Prove a Conspiracy

JFK: Videos that Prove a Conspiracy

Richard Charnin
Dec. 13, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

Warren Commission defenders say there is no evidence which proves a conspiracy. They need to go from the Boob Tube to YouTube.

Witnesses
Grassy Knoll
– Oliver,Arnold, Hoffman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2U8jHKG74g
– Zapruder, Hill, Moorman, Newman https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNclkrx9XMA
– S.M. Holland https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfRivH8G9tY

Roger Craig http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFEx8hjD8kE
Marina Oswald https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swHZ0DxB8n8
Judyth Baker http://thelip.tv/episode/lee-harvey-oswalds-lover-jfk-assassination-plot-recruited-develop-super-cancer-kill-castro/

John Connally http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cP04_lGjkO0
Dr Charles Crenshaw http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXZ87gOlKkM
E.H. Hunt http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4GD_PIbQZ4
LBJ Mistress http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79lOKs0Kr_Y

FBI Agents (autopsy)
O’Neill no bullet exit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMzhKy-O4T4
Sibert (Ford & Spector) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDNZBfPkbPk

Jack Ruby
LBJ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Udwj7i5ACgY
Polygraph http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxfXNzbSFcQ
True Facts/motive http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yv3o9vx3VNM
They knew Jack http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PuL2XPZ42Q

Investigators
Mark Lane https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAnX7atkpyA
Jim Garrison http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hqo2c_SxQag
Church Committee http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ij1lSmvpgZQ

Expert Evidence
Jack White http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCigDMyHisE
Nathan Darby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdF64wI-3Fg

Authors
Penn Jones http://www.youtube.com/watch?Fletcher
Fletcher Prouty https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qz56WytRlqo
James Douglass http://vimeo.com/35174755
Jim Marrs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhNgK_PJBTk
David Lifton https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQg91vALZv4
Roger Stone http://www.c-span.org/video/?316819-1/book-discussion-man-killed-kennedy

Doug Horne (ARRB)
Autopsy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LohiQe2LBg
Medical evidence https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrVyOYsx81k
Zapruder film http://vimeo.com/102327635

Documentaries
Oliver Stone https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhVflCawf7w
Nigel Turner http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2agPurqFJk
Richard Belzer http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRajqoXzABw
Jesse Ventura http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfDASCapA9Q

Movies
JFK http://ffilms.org/jfk-1991/
Executive Action https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9f96oieNA8
The Missiles of October https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOjhSVpZOuM
Thirteen Days http://ffilms.org/thirteen-days-2000/

 
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Posted by on December 13, 2014 in JFK

 

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JFK: How will the Warren Commission Apologists explain the Tippit Timeline?

Richard Charnin
Dec. 11, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

This is for Vincent Bugliosi, Gerald Posner, David Von Pein, John McAdams, Dave Reitzes, Dale Myers, Scott Aaronson, Bob Scheiffer, Rachel Maddow and other interested parties. Can any of you explain why the Warren Commission stated that Tippit was shot at 1:16pm when all the witnesses said it was no later than 1:06?

But first, please explain why the WC noted 1:16 as the time of Tippit’s death (at the SCENE of the shooting) since he was officially pronounced dead at 1:16 in Methodist Hospital? How did the ambulance get to the hospital before 1:16 if he was shot dead at 1:16?

Note: The death certificate from Methodist Hospital signed by Joe B. Brown lists the time of death at 1:15. The police supplementary offense report states that Dr. Liguori pronounced the officer dead at 1:15. An FBI report dated 11/29/63 in which Dr. Liguori pronounced the officer dead at 1:25 looks like it originally said 1:15 and was changed. The Dallas Police Homicide report signed by Liquori said Tippit was pronounced DOA at 1:30.

They had to add ten minutes to the time of Tppit’s death so that they could say Oswald shot him at 1:16. Oswald was spotted outside his apartment at 1:04. He could not have gone to the Tippit scene by 1:06. He would have had to run a 0.9 mile in two minutes. So they changed the time of the shooting to 1:16 – and had to change the time of the ambulance arrival at Methodist Hospital. It is all so transparent.

From S.r. Dusty Rohde, this is THE SMOKING GUN: https://22novembernetwork.wordpress.com/2014/11/15/the-murder-of-j-d-tippit-by-s-r-dusty-rohde/

The insert shown above is taken from the actual Certificate of Death, Tippit’s name was misspelled, but the document clearly shows the time and date of death. There is no way Lee Harvey Oswald shot a “living” J.D. Tippit at either 1:15 or 1:16pm. That statement by the Warren Commission was an outright lie. A lie expressed for the sole purpose of deceiving the American public.

The Warren Commission had the Tippit documents in their hands, they knew the “legal” time of death, they knew Oswald couldn’t have shot Tippit at 1:15 or 1:16pm, and yet they still chose to tell the lie.

J.D. Tippit could not have been shot at 1:16, his legal and lawful time of death is recorded as 1:16pm. Now why does that matter? Before Tippit was pronounced “dead” at the hospital, he had to be removed from the ambulance, wheeled to the emergency room, transferred off of the ambulance gurney onto the hospital bed. Doctors had to do a quick scan, then attempt to clear an airway and possibly administer CPR in the attempt to save Tippit’s life, all “before” declaring the man officially dead.
————————————————————————–
Now, about those witnesses, this is what they said:

These are the witnesses:
• DPD Channel 1 dispatcher Murray Jackson contacts Tippit at 1:03 to get his location but gets no response. https://jaylipp.fatcow.com/JFK/tippet.html

• Dallas County Sheriff Deputy Roger Craig hears of the Tippit shooting at 1:06 over the police radio. http://www.ratical.org/ratville/JFK/WTKaP.pdf

• T.F Bowley arrives at the scene at 1:10. http://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth339132/

• According to Warren Commission exhibit 705, immediately following T.F Bowley’s transmission at 1:10, the DPD dispatcher called over DPD Channel 1 radio that Tippit had been shot. http://www.aarclibrary.org/publib/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh17/pdf/WH17_CE_705.pdf

And there were many more…
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/jfk-did-oswald-shoot-tippit-eyewitnesses-no-warren-commission-yes/

 
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Posted by on December 11, 2014 in JFK

 

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Reclaiming Science: the JFK Conspiracy

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

Kindle version

The 1973 film Executive Action disclosed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated a one in 100,000 trillion probability of eighteen material JFK-related witness deaths in the three years following the assassination. The calculation was mathematical proof of a conspiracy. After all, a professional actuary who has passed difficult mathematical exams would be expected to come up with a good estimate of the odds; that is what he does for a living.

In 1989 Jim Marrs published Crossfire in which he listed 103 convenient JFK-related deaths. Along with Jim Garrison’s On the Trail of the Assassins, Crossfire was the basis for Oliver Stone’s historic JFK. In 2003, using Marrs’ list, I calculated the probability of at least 15 unnatural witness deaths in the first year, essentially confirming the actuary’s calculation. My analysis is referenced in Marrs’ updated 2013 edition of Crossfire.

In 2014, I wrote Reclaiming Science: the JFK Conspiracy. It is a comprehensive statistical and reference analysis of unnatural JFK-related deaths, Dealey Plaza eyewitness observations, medical, acoustic and photographic evidence.

In 1978 the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) dismissed the actuary’s odds, stating the odds were invalid because the universe of witnesses was “unknowable”. But there were 552 Warren Commission witnesses and approximately five hundred others who were sought to testify at the Garrison trial, Church senate hearings and the HSCA. The HSCA did not consider unnatural deaths which comprised the majority of suspicious deaths; it noted just 21 suspicious deaths. But when there were at least 122 by 1978. The actuary’s identity and methodology was never revealed.

Warren Commission defenders and the Corporate Media avoid the evidence and continue to promote the bogus Single Bullet Theory, claiming that Oswald was the lone shooter, despite overwhelming evidence that he was not on the 6th floor of the Texas Book Depository. In fact, he was photographed standing on the first floor watching the motorcade.

The mainstream media has lost all credibility and must be considered complicit in the ongoing 50 year cover-up. Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy challenges the corporate media to let scientific and JFK experts present the facts and debate Warren Commission apologists in full public view.

 
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Posted by on October 24, 2014 in JFK

 

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JFK: Warren Commission Apologists Comment on the Evidence

JFK: Warren Commission Apologists Comment on the Evidence

Richard Charnin
Oct.6, 2014
Updated: Oct.16,2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

LN: Lone Nutter (Warren Commission apologist)

1. The Badgeman photo was declared authentic by MIT and other photo analysts.
LN: MIT and all the others were wrong. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/Badgeman_coloured.jpg

2. Witness testimony that Tippet was killed no later than 1:06 proves that Oswald could not have been the shooter.
LN: All the witnesses at the scene were mistaken. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/jfk-did-oswald-shoot-tippit-eyewitnesses-no-warren-commission-yes/

3. All Parkland doctors and witnesses said they observed a small throat entrance wound and a massive head exit wound. This proves there were at least two shots from the front and destroys the Single Bullet Theory.
LN: The Parkland doctors were mistaken. They never saw the head wound. http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/8804/backofheadorangesizedwo.jpg

4. Jack Ruby said it was a conspiracy and LBJ was involved.
LN: Ruby was lying. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zd4r4O0o_Y

5. Parkland Dr. Charles Crenshaw viewed a neck entrance wound and head exit wound.
LN: Crenshaw was mistaken. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXZ87gOlKkM

6. The Altgens6 photo was altered to eliminate Oswald in the doorway.
LN: There was no alteration. Lovelady is Doorman. http://www.veteranstoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/GrodenAnnot-one-half14.jpg

7. The JFK autopsy photos of the head exit wound were covered.
LN: The following top view was altered to show an exit head wound; the back view is unaltered and does not show an exit wound. http://www.celebritymorgue.com/jfk/jfk-autopsy.html

8. The figure in the Altgens6 photo sitting in front whose face is cut out is Billy Lovelady. The cutout is not an arm. No one holds their arms VERTICALLY OVER the eyes to shade them; if they did, they would not be able to see. We hold our arm(s) HORIZONTALLY ABOVE our eyes to shade them from the sun.
LN: That is not a cutout of Lovelady. It was just a photo processing glitch. http://betshort.com/loveos.gif

9. An FBI official attending the autopsy claimed there was no bullet exit from the back wound.
LN: The FBI official was either lying or mistaken. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMzhKy-O4T4

10. Wesley Frazier testified five different times that Lovelady was standing in front of him on the STEPS of the TSBD. If so, Lovelady could not have been Doorman who was standing on the TOP level (first floor).
LN: Frazier was mistaken in all five statements. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/07/10851/

11. A pixelation analysis of Doorman’s shirt by Judyth Baker proves LHO was Doorman.
LN: The analysis is bogus, junk science. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1X2eD2Wl3xSmRHTuE02ntfYkb3ES2Kuo8wl3HHzzAlD8/pub

12. Doorman’s shirt in Altgens6 matched that of Oswald in custody.
LN: it is not the same shirt Oswald was wearing in custody. https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ-FeA_djwkRgNMUeGWcRuJNyXfghtQcvkzVC9bpY3JI8jlhZMn

13. Doug Horne (ARRB) and Dino Brugioni (world class photo interpreter) proved that the Zapruder film was altered and the chain of custody was broken. The film does not show the JFK Limo stop seen by 33 witnesses.
LN: Horne and Brugioni are mistaken. The Limo never stopped. The 33 witnesses were all mistaken. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGr21FZBVL4

14. The Oswald backyard photos were faked; the face is pasted from the same cutout in each of the four photos.
LN: the fact that there is no change in expression or position is not proof of fakery https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSmOS3BGFVo

15. Gerald Ford of the Warren Commission moved the back wound (which never exited) up 5” to make it conform to the Magic Bullet exiting the neck.
LN: Ford wanted to fix the error in the evidence and did nothing wrong. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDNZBfPkbPk

16. The Single Bullet Theory was a contrived farce because the Warren Commission needed to have two bullets cause seven wounds in JFK and Connally.
LN: Arlen Spector would not just make it up. Gerald Ford moved the back wound up a few inches to indicate the true location of the entrance wound at the base of the neck described by Spector. FBI officials Sibert and O’Neill both lied when they claimed there was no exit from the back wound. http://bullet.my3gb.com/images/4-kennedy-magic-bullet.jpg

17. At least 78 of 1400+ JFK-related witnesses listed in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination died unnaturally from 1964-78. Only 17 were expected statistically. The probability is E-62 (one in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion).
LN: The witnesses were not directly related. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

18. At least 40 of 656 JFK-related witnesses listed in Simkin’s JFK Index died unnaturally from 1964-78. Only 8 were expected statistically. The probability is E-37 (one in a trillion trillion trillion).
LN: The only reason the witnesses were included by Simkin is because they died. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/12/25/jfk-related-unnatural-and-suspicious-deaths-in-the-jfk-calc-spreadsheet-and-simkins-jfk-index/

19. At least 51 of 122 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet/database were located in the Dallas area. The obvious connection is the JFK assassination.
LN: The witnesses were self-selected. It was just a coincidence. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=55

20. 33 of 59 witnesses said the JFK limo came to a FULL stop. The probability they would all be mistaken is ZERO. This proves that the Zapruder film was altered since it does not show a full stop.
LN: Witness testimony is unreliable. The calculation is invalid. The Zapruder film was not altered. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/jfk-assassination-mathematical-proof-that-the-zapruder-film-was-altered/

 
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Posted by on October 6, 2014 in JFK

 

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To Believe the Zapruder Film was Not Altered, You Must Believe…

Richard Charnin
July 21, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

To Believe the Zapruder Film was Not Altered, You Must Believe…

– The JFK limo did not come to a complete stop. Thirty-three (33) of 59 witnesses were mistaken.
– The Zapruder film was not shown until 1975 because it was too gruesome, not because it falsely depicted the actual event.

– Frame 313 is authentic. It is the only frame which shows the effects of the fatal head shot.
– In Frame 313 the pink explosion at the right front of JFK’s head indicates the shot came from behind.
– The Parkland hospital and autopsy witnesses who described a fist-size exit wound in the right rear of JFK’s head were all mistaken.

– SS agent Clint Hill did not cover the bodies of JFK and Jackie Kennedy.
– Hill was mistaken in describing a right-rear head exit wound
– DPD Harkins was mistaken in his claim of crossing the street between the limo and the follow-up car.

– ARRB Lead Investigator Doug Horne was mistaken in claiming that the film’s chain of custody was not sent directly to Life Magazine the day after the assassination but went to the CIA’s primary photo analysis facility in Washington DC, the National Photographic Interpretation Center (NPIC).
– Horne is mistaken in stating that “the real exit wound behind President Kennedy’s right ear, in the back of his head has been blacked out on the film, a false exit wound has been painted onto the right front and the top of his head, to mimic the autopsy photos”.
– Horne is mistaken in claiming that “You do not see any exit debris leaving the back of President Kennedy’s head and traveling to the rear in the Zapruder film. So if the car stop has been removed which it may have and if the exit debris leaving the back of his head has been removed, I should say that they’re not present, so therefore I suspect they’ve been removed.”
– Horne is mistaken in claiming that the agent who delivered the film to NPIC on the second night to make a second set of briefing boards and said it came from Hawkeye Works, the CIA’s secret photo lab at Kodak headquarters in Rochester NY.

– Dino Brugioni, Duty Officer at NPIC, the photo expert who saw the original Z-film on Nov.22, was mistaken in claiming that a) the head shot did not look anything like the extant Z-film, b) the rear head wound resulted in a white cloud of brain matter which was visible in a number of frames, not just 313.

– Motion picture film professionals who said the dark patches in blacked out areas of the Z-film did not look like natural shadows were mistaken.
– All seven experts in the post production of motion pictures and special effects who viewed the high definition scans of each frame of the Z=film were mistaken in claiming that the head wounds were poorly altered.

Doug Horne and Dino Brugioni: http://vimeo.com/102327635
http://jfkfacts.org/assassination/rewinding-the-zapruder-film/

Jim Fetzer Interview of Doug Horne: http://nwopodcast.com/fetz/media/jim%20fetzer%20real%20deal-doug%20horne.mp3

Doug Horne provides details of the true chain of custody, where, why and how the film was altered in this very comprehensive piece: http://assassinationofjfk.net/the-two-npic-zapruder-film-events-signposts-pointing-to-the-films-alteration/

This mathematical proof that the Z-film was altered is based on Vince Palamara’s article (33 of 59 eyewitnesses saw a FULL JFK limo STOP): https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/jfk-assassination-mathematical-proof-that-the-zapruder-film-was-altered/

John Costella on the Z-film hoax: http://assassinationscience.com/johncostella/jfk/intro/
A detailed frame-by-frame analysis based on basic optical physics calculations:
http://johncostella.com/jfk/#duluth

Oliver Stone on Democracy Now: the Z-film was altered: http://www.infowars.com/oliver-stone-zapruder-film-was-altered/

Philip Stahl (“Copernicus”): a mathematical analysis confirms that the Z-film was altered and the removal of frames does not invalidate the acoustic evidence. http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2010/02/was-zapruder-film-tampered-with.html

This blogger changed his mind and is now convinced the Z-film was altered: http://theamericanchronicle.blogspot.com/2013/04/was-zapruder-film-altered-redux.html

 
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Posted by on July 22, 2014 in JFK

 

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JFK: Debunking Scott Aaronson’s “Twenty Reasons to Believe Oswald Acted Alone”

JFK: Debunking Scott Aaronson’s “Twenty Reasons to Believe Oswald Acted Alone”

Richard Charnin
April 30, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

I came across this blog post by Scott Aaronson: Twenty Reasons to Believe Oswald Acted Alone. http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=1596

I replied with a brief one paragraph comment which was not posted. This is a response to each of the twenty reasons.

Aaronson is a 33 year old quantum physicist who readily admits he is unfamiliar with the evidence and is new to the JFK assassination. But it is the detailed factual evidence which proves a conspiracy. Aaronson states opinions which rehash the standard disinformation playbook of myths contrived to frame truth seeking researchers as conspiracy theory (CT) buffs. His lack of knowledge of relevant historical events prior and subsequent to the assassination is apparent. One can only conclude that he has been brainwashed by a complicit corporate media and academia which has covered up the assassination evidence for fifty years.

Why would someone so disciplined in the scientific method fail to do his homework? He notes that his heroes Carl Sagan and Bertrand Russell were conspiracy believers. It may be that for the 50th anniversary of the assassination, Scott felt compelled to write something quickly – without getting into the wealth of inconvenient details and facts. But the devil is in the details.

Aaronson states: I also started dipping, for the first time in my life, into a tiny fraction of the vast literature about the JFK assassination. The trigger (so to speak) for me was this article by David Talbot, the founder of Salon.com. http://www.salon.com/2013/11/06/the_jfk_assassination_we_still_dont_know_what_happened/.
I figured, if the founder of Salon is a JFK conspiracy buff—if, for crying out loud, my skeptical heroes Bertrand Russell and Carl Sagan were both JFK conspiracy buffs—then maybe it’s at least worth familiarizing myself with the basic facts and arguments.

But another reason is that I’m skeptical that anyone actually comes to believe the JFK conspiracy hypothesis because they don’t see how the second bullet came in at the appropriate angle to pass through JFK’s neck and shoulder and then hit Governor Connally.

RC: JFK was hit in the back 5.5 inches below the collar by a bullet on a downward trajectory which did not exit. I am more than skeptical – actually dumbfounded- that anyone actually believes the Single Bullet Theory. There are three possibilities: the believer is a) unfamiliar with the evidence, b) familiar with the evidence but is dumb as rocks, or c) a JFK disinformationist.

Scott is surely unaware of Gerald Ford’s moving the back wound up to conform to the Magic Bullet’s bogus point of entry: http://www.jfklancer.com/Ford-Rankin.html

Update: Philip Stahl is an astronomer, mathematician and physicist who posts as “Copernicus”. I sent him a link to this post. He closes the book on Aaronson with a series of devastating articles.
http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2014/10/why-some-quantum-physicists-need-to.html http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2014/10/scott-aaronson-in-over-his-head-on-jfk.html http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2014/10/rebuttal-of-scott-aarons-2o-reasons-for.html http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2014/10/rebuttal-of-scott-aaronsons-20-reasons.html

Aaronson never considered the following facts and analysis before claiming to believe the Warren Commission report that Oswald was the “lone nut” assassin.

1) To believe that Oswald killed JFK you must believe the following: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/09/15/to-believe-that-oswald-killed-jfk-you-must-believe-that/

2) 16 mindblowing facts about who killed JFK: http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/277-75/20557-16-mind-blowing-facts-about-who-really-killed-jfk

3) 20 questions and answers on the JFK Calc spreadsheet: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/04/09/jfk-calc-questions-on-the-spreadsheet-analysis/

This is a summary of Aaronson’s twenty reasons followed by my comments.

1. Conspiracy Buff Psychology
Conspiracy theorizing represents a known bug in the human nervous system. Given that, I think our prior should be overwhelmingly against anything that even looks like a conspiracy theory.

RC: History has taught us just the opposite. People conspire all the time.

2. Ruby: Genesis of Conspiracy thinking
The shooting of Oswald by Jack Ruby created the perfect conditions for conspiracy theorizing to fester.

RC: So, wouldn’t that be a normal, rational response. To permanently silence the patsy? And Ruby himself confirmed it was a conspiracy multiple times.

3. Historical Lone Nuts
Other high-profile assassinations to which we might compare this one—for example, those of Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley, RFK, Martin Luther King Jr., Gandhi, Yitzchak Rabin…—appear to have been the work of “lone nuts,” or at most “conspiracies” of small numbers of lowlifes. So why not this one?

RC: You don’t know that they were killed by “lone nuts”. Did it ever occur to you that the targets were all liberals who wanted change? JFK was a liberal who wanted to change things.

4. LHO the psychopath
Oswald seems to have perfectly fit the profile of a psychopathic killer (see, for example, Case Closed by Gerald Posner).

RC: You should know what people who knew Oswald had to say. Quite the opposite of the Posner propaganda piece. Here are some things you don’t know about Oswald. http://my.firedoglake.com/sancheq/2013/11/23/things-you-never-knew-about-lee-harvey-oswald/

5. No evidence of others
A half-century of investigation has failed to link any individual besides Oswald to the crime. Conspiracy theorists love to throw around large, complicated entities like the CIA or the Mafia as potential “conspirators”—but in the rare cases when they’ve tried to go further, and implicate an actual human being other than Oswald or Ruby (or distant power figures like LBJ), the results have been pathetic and tragic.

RC: Oswald never had a trial. Even Posner admits he would never have been convicted as there is no evidence that he was on the 6th floor of the TSBD at 12:30. The Altgens6 photo is strong evidence that he was on the first floor watching the motorcade. Conspirators included Clay Shaw, Jack Ruby, David Ferrie, Hunt and the Cubans, et al. You call the Shaw trial “pathetic and tragic”, but even though he was acquitted, the jurors said that they were convinced it was a conspiracy. Shaw was a contract CIA agent who lied at his trial. CIA Director Helms admitted Shaw was a CIA operative in 1979. David Ferrie was murdered shortly after he was named as a witness. Garrison’s case was sabotaged. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hqo2c_SxQag

There were at least 78 material witness deaths that were officially ruled unnatural and at least forty other suspicious heart attacks and sudden cancers. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

6. Gen. Walker shooting
Oswald had previously tried to assassinate General Walker—a fact that was confirmed by his widow Marina Oswald, but that, incredibly, is barely even discussed in the reams of conspiracy literature.

RC: LHO did not shoot Walker. There is no evidence of that. Marina was forced to say it to protect her kids; she claimed it was not true years later. http://22november1963.org.uk/did-lee-oswald-shoot-general-edwin-walker
There are many problems with the case against Oswald. http://michaelgriffith1.tripod.com/faulty.htm

7. The Tippit canard
There’s clear evidence that Oswald murdered Officer Tippit an hour after shooting JFK—a fact that seems perfectly consistent with the state of mind of someone who’d just murdered the President, but that, again, seems to get remarkably little discussion in the conspiracy literature.

RC: LHO did not shoot Tippit. It was physically impossible.  LHO was seen standing at a bus stop near his rooming house at 1:04pm. According to 10 witnesses, Tippit was shot at 1:06. The Warren Commission ignored  all witness testimony. The WC claimed Tippit was shot at 1:15. They had to do this to give Oswald enough time to get to the scene. It was impossible for Oswald to travel one mile in two minutes. The world’s fastest milers need just under 4 minutes.  The bullets recovered  were from an automatic and did not match Oswald’s revolver. Eyewitnesses saw two shooters. Let’s end this crap. http://www.assassinationresearch.com/v1n2/tippit.pdf http://educationforum.ipbhost.com/index.php?showtopic=12745

8. Oswald a violent, pathological liar
Besides being a violent nut, Oswald was also a known pathological liar. He lied on his employment applications, he lied about having established a thriving New Orleans branch of Fair Play for Cuba, he lied and lied and lied.

RC: Thriving branch? That’s a joke. Oswald was working for Guy Banister (FBI) to distribute leaflets to stage a fake altercation. Oswald was CIA and an FBI informer.

9. Oswald attitude in custody
According to police accounts, Oswald acted snide and proud of himself after being taken into custody.

RC: That is untrue. When will you provide specifics? See the testimony of Detective Will Fritz. Oswald could not reveal his ties to the FBI and CIA. He was calm, cool and asked for legal representation.

10. Conspiracy Theories are wildly inconsistent
Almost all JFK conspiracy theories must be false, simply because they’re mutually inconsistent.

RC: Cite the theories and the inconsistencies. Can you provide specifics? Yes, some theories are false, created by disinformationists to confuse the public (such as the REELZ “Smoking Gun” fiasco).

11. Witnesses are unreliable
The case for Oswald as lone assassin seems to become stronger, the more you focus on the physical evidence and stuff that happened right around the time and place of the event. To an astonishing degree, the case for a conspiracy seems to rely on verbal testimony years or decades afterward—often by people who are known confabulators, who were nowhere near Dealey Plaza at the time, who have financial or revenge reasons to invent stories, and who “remembered” seeing Oswald and Ruby with CIA agents, etc. only under drugs or hypnosis. This is precisely the pattern we would expect if conspiracy theorizing reflected the reality of the human nervous system rather than the reality of the assassination.

RC: There were 200 witnesses in Dealey Plaza. Over 90 said they heard shots from the Grassy Knoll; about 45 at the TSBD. Were they all liars or mistaken? Were they inventing stories? What about the Parkland doctors who all said the throat wound was one of entrance and the head wound an exit? You are sadly misinformed about one-sided witness testimony which indicates at least one addition shooter at the Grassy Knoll. Why do you avoid specifics? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=65

12. Assassination motive
If the conspiracy is so powerful, why didn’t it do something more impressive than just assassinate JFK? Why didn’t it rig the election to prevent JFK from becoming President in the first place?

RC: JFK had many enemies: Big Oil, Military Industrial Establishment, anti-Castro Cubans, mobsters, Joint Chiefs. The public execution gave a message to all future presidents.

13. Who hired the shooters?
Pretty much all the conspiracy writers I encountered exude total, 100% confidence, not only in the existence of additional shooters, but in the guilt of their favored villains (they might profess ignorance, but then in the very next sentence they’d talk about how JFK’s murder was “a triumph for the national security establishment”).

RC: 100% confidence is justified by ballistic, video, acoustic and eyewitness evidence which all point to at least one more shooter behind the picket fence at the Grassy Knoll.

14. Too big to cover up, someone would have talked
Every conspiracy theory I’ve encountered seems to require “uncontrolled growth” in size and complexity: that is, the numbers of additional shooters, alterations of medical records, murders of inconvenient witnesses, coverups, coverups of the coverups, etc. that need to be postulated all seem to multiply without bound.

RC: That’s because the evidence, which you are apparently unaware of, is overwhelming. Why do you ignore this evidence? There were over 100 material witness unnatural deaths. The probability is ZERO.

15. JFK the conservative
JFK was not a liberal Messiah. He moved slowly on civil rights for fear of a conservative backlash, invested heavily in building nukes, signed off on the botched plans to kill Fidel Castro, and helped lay the groundwork for the US’s later involvement in Vietnam. Yes, it’s possible that he would’ve made wiser decisions about Vietnam than LBJ ended up making; that’s part of what makes his assassination (like RFK’s later assassination) a tragedy. But many conspiracy theorists’ view of JFK as an implacable enemy of the military-industrial complex is preposterous.

RC: Yes, JFK moved slowly on civil rights, but then in 1962 he ordered integration at the Univ. of Alabama and gave the first great presidential speech for black equality. He did not seek to kill Castro; he was negotiating for peaceful coexistence with Castro and Khruschev behind the scenes. The CIA and the military were determined to force the issue, even after JFK ordered the anti-Castro camps shut down. He signed a memorandum to pull out of Vietnam by 1965 and the Test Ban Treaty with the Russians in 1963.

16. LBJ the liberal
By the same token, LBJ was not exactly a right-wing conspirator’s dream candidate. He was, if anything, more aggressive on poverty and civil rights than JFK was. And even if he did end up being better for certain military contractors, that’s not something that would’ve been easy to predict in 1963, when the US’s involvement in Vietnam had barely started.

RC: LBJ was NOT a liberal; he was forced to appear as one to placate the left and carry on JFK’s initiative on civil rights. LBJ gave the military the Vietnam War they wanted by staging the bogus Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1964. He kept the oil depletion allowance for his Texas buddies.

17. Conspiracy buffs have a nervous system disorder
Lots of politically-powerful figures have gone on the record as believers in a conspiracy, including John Kerry, numerous members of Congress, and even frequently-accused conspirator LBJ himself. Some people would say that this lends credibility to the conspiracy cause. To me, however, it indicates just the opposite: that there’s no secret cabal running the world, and that those in power are just as prone to bugs in the human nervous system as anyone else is.

RC: What a ridiculous statement! Its just the opposite. So your heroes Sagan and Bertrand Russell suffered this disorder? Where is your logic? If anything, coincidence theorists like yourself suffer from massive propaganda disorientation. To believe everything the government claims is a severe attention disorder.

18. The intelligence agency incompetence canard
As far as I can tell, the conspiracy theorists are absolutely correct that JFK’s security in Dallas was unbelievably poor; that the Warren Commission was as interested in reassuring the nation and preventing a war with the USSR or Cuba as it was in reaching the truth (the fact that it did reach the truth is almost incidental); and that agencies like the CIA and FBI kept records related to the assassination classified for way longer than there was any legitimate reason to (though note that most records finally were declassified in the 1990s, and they provided zero evidence for any conspiracy). As you might guess, I ascribe all of these things to bureaucratic incompetence rather than to conspiratorial ultra-competence. But once again, these government screwups help us understand how so many intelligent people could come to believe in a conspiracy even in the total absence of one.

RC: It’s always incompetence, never venality. Sorry, the agencies are not incompetent. Total absence of a conspiracy? You ignore or are ignorant of the totality of evidence which proves a conspiracy.

19. Psychological need to call it a conspiracy
In the context of the time, the belief that JFK was killed by a conspiracy filled a particular need: namely, the need to believe that the confusing, turbulent events of the 1960s had an understandable guiding motive behind them, and that a great man like JFK could only be brought down by an equally-great evil, rather than by a chronically-unemployed loser who happened to see on a map that JFK’s motorcade would be passing by his workplace.

RC: Oh, really? We need a conspiracy to satisfy our need for excitement? Wrong. We need to learn the truth. You believe that only a Lone Nut would want to bring down JFK or RFK, or MLK, or John Lennon, or JFK,Jr, or Wellstone, or Gandhi, etc. It’s never a conspiracy. That is very naive. Newsflash! We live in a world of conspiracies. It makes the world go round.

20. Can’t Connect the Dots
At its core, every conspiracy argument seems to be built out of “holes”: “the details that don’t add up in the official account,” “the questions that haven’t been answered,” etc. What I’ve never found is a truly coherent alternative scenario: just one “hole” after another. This pattern is the single most important red flag for me, because it suggests that the JFK conspiracy theorists view themselves as basically defense attorneys: people who only need to sow enough doubts, rather than establish the reality of what happened. Crucially, creationism, 9/11 trutherism, and every other elaborate-yet-totally-wrong intellectual edifice I’ve ever encountered has operated on precisely the same “defense attorney principle”: “if we can just raise enough doubts about the other side’s case, we win!” But that’s a terrible approach to knowledge, once you’ve seen firsthand how a skilled arguer can raise unlimited doubts even about the nonexistence of a monster under your bed. Such arguers are hoping, of course, that you’ll find their monster hypothesis so much more fun, exciting, and ironically comforting than the “random sounds in the night hypothesis,” that it won’t even occur to you to demand they show you their monster.

RC
You avoid any and all analysis of the evidence. You make pompous claims which have no basis in fact and just perpetuate myths while admitting ignorance of the facts and evidence of the assassination. You employ Warren Commission apologist propaganda and parrot lies that have been promoted by the corporate media – who refuse to consider, much less debate, the evidence. Hear no evil; see no evil.

 
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Posted by on April 29, 2014 in JFK

 

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