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Deaths of Dealey Plaza JFK Witnesses: A Probability Analysis

Richard Charnin
Oct. 30, 2017

 Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy.

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The 1977 House Select Committee on Assassination (HSCA) claimed that the London Sunday Times actuary’s probability calculation of 18 material witnesses deaths (13 unnatural) in the three years following the assassination (1 in 100,000 trillion) was invalid. The HSCA claimed that it was impossible to calculate the probability because the witness universe was unknown. This canard was essential to the coverup. No one did the math until I confirmed the actuary’s calculation in 2003

But there were many definable witness groups. Let’s take a look at the 600 estimated Dealey Plaza witnesses of whom 28 died suspiciously (14 were ruled unnatural: 5 homicides, 7 accidents, 2 suicides).

Assuming  600 Dealey Plaza witnesses, the probability of at least 14 ruled unnatural deaths during the period 1963-1978 is P = 1- poisson (13, 1.727, true) = 1 in 207 million.

But the nine accidents and suicides were likely homicides.
The probability of at least 14 homicides for 400, 600 and 1000 witnesses:
400: P= 1 in 750 trillion
600: P =1- poisson (13, 0.864,  true) = 1 in 3.7 trillion
1000: P = 1 in 4.8 billion

Sixteen Dealey Plaza witnesses testified at the Warren Commission, 3 were sought to testify at the Garrison trial, 3 at the Church Senate hearings and 3 at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).

JFK witness unnatural death probabilities have been posted for the following groups: Warren Commission, London Times actuary, Garrison/ Shaw trial, Church Senate Hearings, HSCA, Simkin Educational Forum, JFK-related 1400+ witness “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.

At least 20 Dealey Plaza witnesses were called to testify at W= Warren Commission, G=Garrison Trial, C= Church investigation, H= HSCA

Died yymm Witness W, G C, H Category
1 7402 J.A. Milteer C MINUTEMEN
2 7608 Johnny Roselli CH MAFIA
3 7805 David Morales H CIA ANTI-CASTRO
4 7703 Charles Nicoletti H MAFIA
5 6512 William Whaley W WITNESS TSBD
6 6608 Lee Bowers W WITNESS
7 6611 James Worrell W WITNESS TSBD
8 7502 Ira (Jack) Beers W MEDIA
9 7901 Billy Lovelady W WITNESS TSBD
10 7008 Bill Decker W POLICE
11 7501 Allen Sweatt W POLICE
12 6606 Frank Martin W POLICE
13 6701 Jack Ruby W MAFIA POLICE LHO
14 7109 Cliff Carter W LBJ
15 8403 Roy Kellerman W Secret Service
16 7707 Ken O’Donnell WC JFK
17 6901 Buddy Walthers WG POLICE
18 7509 Earl Cabell WG CIA
19 7505 Roger Craig WG POLICE
20 7801 Clint “Lummie” Lewis WH POLICE
21 7101 Mac Wallace  TSBD Shooter
22 7109 Roscoe White Shooter
23 7309 Thomas E. Davis RUBY CIA
24 6901 Charles Mentesana * WITNESS TSBD
25 7604 James Chaney POLICE
26 6311 Lee Harvey Oswald RUBY FBI CIA
27 6311 J.D. Tippit RUBY POLICE
28 7001 Merriman Smith MEDIA

Dealey Plaza witnesses: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=79

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=1

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/08/30/jfk-calc-a-spreadsheetdatabase-of-mysterious-witness-deaths/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/04/24/jfk-assassination-a-probability-analysis-of-warren-commission-witness-unnatural-deaths/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/01/27/jfk-a-closer-look-at-the-convenient-deaths-of-warren-commission-witnesses/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/jfk-witness-deaths-7-fbi-officials-due-to-testify-at-hsca/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/08/18/jfk-witnesses-called-to-testify-actual-vs-expected-unnatural-deaths-1964-1977/

Quick JFK Witness death Calculator:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=78

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Posted by on October 30, 2017 in JFK, Uncategorized

 

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