So I’m a “left-wing Internet crank” who has been “weaponized” for Trump by Roger Stone?

Richard Charnin
Sept. 22, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

So I’m a “left-wing Internet crank” who has been “weaponized” for Trump by Roger Stone?

On August 3, 2016, Felix Salmon wrote: “Stone and Trump base most of their argument, such that it is, on one man. Stone refers to him as “a mathematician called Richard Charnin.”

https://splinternews.com/how-the-donald-trump-campaign-is-weaponizing-a-left-win-1793860798

Hey Felix, my political views are irrelevant. But I do have a lifetime membership in the Truth Party. I crunch numbers.

Salmon goes on:
“For years now, Charnin has been best known as the go-to guy for anybody who wants evidence that voter fraud is deciding elections. He’s beloved in the corner of the internet which believes that Hillary Clinton stole the Democratic nomination from Bernie Sanders, or, for that matter, that George W Bush stole the 2004 election from John Kerry. When he’s not concentrating on who-killed-JFK conspiracy theories, he can generally be relied upon to say that the more left-wing candidate got more votes than the winner in major elections.

That makes Charnin a very strange bedfellow for the Trump campaign, just in terms of his political leanings. But even stranger is the idea that Trump would want his supporters to pick up Charnin’s voter fraud ball and run it all the way into the zone of democratic illegitimacy”.

I plead guilty as charged. But I am not a conspiracy theorist. I use math analysis based on published facts to prove that…
1) JFK was assassinated in a massive Coup by the Deep State:
http://www.amazon.com/Reclaiming-Science-Cons…/…/ref=sr_1_1…

2) Hillary stole the 2016 nomination:
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/…/77-billion-to-one-2…/) and

3) Kerry beat Bush easily in 2004:  http://www.richardcharnin.com/FurtherConfirmationOfaKerryLandslide.htm

My next book is on the 2016 election. As usual, expect the mathematical analysis you won’t ever get in the MSM.

 

Comparing Five pre-election polls: Why the Gallup voter affiliation survey is used in the 2016 Election Model

Richard Charnin
Oct. 23, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

The fact that Party-ID demographic in five current polls (see realclearpolitics.com) vary greatly  is a cause for concern. What is the correct mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents? Theoretically, the National polls should have nearly identical Party-ID weightings. But they don’t, so which ones are to believed?

This summary analysis compares the poll shares  to  those obtained using the Gallup party affiliation survey  weights (currently  40% Independents, 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans).

Clinton leads the average of five pre-election polls by 43.0-40.7%. Applying the 2016 Election Model, this translates to a 302-236 average Electoral Vote win.

Using the Gallup survey  weights for each poll (using the same poll shares), Trump leads by 41.8-39.3%. He wins the average Electoral Vote by 329-209.

In the five polls, the average Party-ID is 40.8 Dem- 33.6 Rep- 25.6 Ind.  Trump leads the Independents in each poll by an average of 40-28%.

IBD/TIPP is the only  poll in which Independents are the largest group (38%) and closely approximates the Gallup affiliation survey..

View the 2016 Election Model  (with links to the five polls and the Gallup survey)

	Poll share		Electoral Vote
Poll Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Ipsos	42.1	39.6	298	240
Rasmussen	40.9	42.9	211	327
IBD/TIPP	39.5	42.2	202	336
Quinnipiac	47.6	39.7	444	94
Fox News	45	39	354	184
Average	43.02	40.68	301.8	236.2
Gallup affiliation:	Poll share		Electoral Vote
40Ind;32Dem;28Rep	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Ipsos	36.4	37.7	232	306
Rasmussen	36.8	47.4	81	457
IBD/TIPP	36.5	45.4	42	496
Quinnipiac	45.4	40.5	354	184
Fox News	41.3	37.9	335	203
Average	39.28	41.78	208.8	329.2

 

Party ID Mix	Ind	Dem	Rep
Ipsos	13	46	41
Rasmussen	32	40	28
IBD/TIPP	38	35	27
Quinnipiac	26	40	34
Fox News	19	43	38
Average	25.6	40.8	33.6
Independent shares
Poll	Clinton	Trump
Ipsos	23	34
Rasmussen	22	47
IBD/TIPP	28	44
Quinnipiac	38	42
Fox News	30	35
Average	28.2	40.4

 

 

 

 

 

Pre-election Presidential polls: preparing for a stolen election

Pre-election Presidential polls: preparing for a stolen election

Richard Charnin
Oct. 19, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

The media wants voters to believe that Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls – while maintaining that the Russians are working with Wikileaks and  are preparing to hack the voting machines for Trump. But the media won’t discuss the history of election fraud going back decades on proprietary voting machines and central tabulators. And that 2016 Election fraud is proven by exit poll discrepancies  favoring Clinton in 24 of 26 states.

The latest Fox poll shows Clinton leading  45-39% over Trump. Johnson and Jill Stein have 5% and 3%, respectively.The Party-ID weights are 43% Dem, 38% Rep and 19% Ind.  Candidate vote shares were calculated to match the poll results.

In order to match the Fox poll, Clinton had approximately 35% of Independents and Trump 30%. Approximately 17% of Independents support Johnson and Stein while 18% (can we consider them Independents?) show no preference..

But the latest Gallup party affiliation survey indicates that 40% are Independents,   32% Democrats and 28% Republicans. Using the survey percentages, and assuming that 50% of Independents support Johnson and Stein, then Trump is leading Clinton by 36-35%, with 16% for Stein and 13% for Johnson.

Applying the Gallup weights adjusted proportionally to each of  15 battleground states, Trump leads by 36.9-34.5% and wins 13  states with a 142-51 lead in electoral votes.

In anticipation of the final presidential debate, it is instructive to recall the Democratic primaries. Eleven of 26 exit poll discrepancies exceeded the margin of error – a 1 in 77 billion probability. 

Wikileaks documents provide confirmation that the primaries were rigged against Sanders while Donald Trump easily won the Republican primaries.

Other than Fox News, the Clinton email scandal is ignored in the mainstream media. They would rather focus on  Trump’s locker room comments years ago- which are no different than the language used every day on cable and in films.  The media would rather dwell on this non-issue than discuss the monumental Clinton/DNC scandals unfolding every day.

 

View the  spreadsheet calculations and source data links.

The Fox Poll

Party-ID	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein	na
Ind	19%	35%	30%	10%	7%	18%
Dem	43%	85%	5%	2%	2%	6%
Rep	38%	5%	82%	6%	2%	5%
Calc	100%	45.1%	39.0%	5.0%	3.0%	7.9%
Poll	100%	45.0%	39.0%	5.0%	3.0%	8.0%

 True Vote: Gallup party affiliation survey 

Gallup	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
Ind	40%	20%	30%	20%	30%
Dem	32%	80%	5%	5%	10%
Rep	28%	5%	80%	12%	3%
Calc	100%	35.0%	36.0%	13.0%	16.0%
Poll	92%	45.0%	39.0%	5.0%	3.0%
Diff	8%	-10.0%	-3.0%	8.0%	13.0%

15 Battleground states

Gallup	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
Ind	38.7%	20%	30%	20%	30%
Dem	31.6%	80%	5%	5%	10%
Rep	29.7%	5%	80%	12%	3%
Calc	100%	34.5%	37.0%	12.9%	15.7%
Poll	95.0%	45.4%	42.9%	5.4%	1.3%
Diff	5.0%	-10.9%	-6.0%	7.5%	14.4%

Gallup		Party-ID
	EV	Dem	Rep	Ind
AZ	11	22.8%	27.3%	49.8%
CO	9	24.4%	26.2%	49.5%
FL	29	30.6%	27.8%	41.5%
GA	16	30.8%	34.2%	35.0%
IA	6	24.5%	25.4%	50.0%
ME	4	25.2%	21.5%	53.3%
MI	16	34.7%	29.4%	35.9%
MN	10	34.7%	31.0%	34.3%
MO	10	30.8%	35.0%	34.2%
NC	15	32.9%	24.2%	42.9%
NV	6	31.3%	27.5%	41.2%
OH	18	32.4%	33.4%	34.2%
PA	20	39.1%	29.2%	31.8%
VA	13	31.6%	33.4%	35.0%
WI	10	33.9%	32.6%	33.5%
Total Evote	193
Average		30.6%	29.2%	40.1%
Wtd Avg		31.6%	29.7%	38.7%

Polls					Trump	Clinton
10/19	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein	EVote	EVote
AZ	42	44	9	1	11
CO	45	37	10	3		9
FL	48	44	4	1		29
GA	42	48	4	0	16
IA	39	43	6	2	6
ME	44	36	9	3		4
MI	47	37	7	4		16
MN	43	43	4	2	tie	tie
MO	42	47	4	1	10
NC	48	47	4	0		15
NV	47	40	7	0		6
OH	45	45	6	1	tie	tie
PA	47	41	6	1		20
VA	46	43	6	0		13
WI	47	39	1	3		10
Total EV					43	122
Average	44.8	42.3	5.8	1.5
Wtd Avg	45.4	42.9	5.4	1.3

Gallup	Party_ID				Trump	Clinton
True Vote	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein	EVote	EVote
AZ	29.6%	38.0%	14.4%	18.1%	11
CO	30.7%	37.0%	14.3%	18.1%	9
FL	34.2%	36.2%	13.2%	16.3%	29
GA	33.4%	39.4%	12.6%	14.6%	16
IA	30.9%	36.6%	14.3%	18.2%	6
ME	31.9%	34.5%	14.5%	19.1%	4
MI	36.4%	36.0%	12.4%	15.1%		16
MN	36.2%	36.8%	12.3%	14.7%	10
MO	33.2%	39.8%	12.6%	14.4%	10
NC	36.1%	33.9%	13.1%	16.9%		15
NV	34.7%	35.9%	13.1%	16.3%	6
OH	34.4%	38.6%	12.5%	14.5%	18
PA	39.1%	34.9%	11.8%	14.3%		20
VA	34.0%	38.8%	12.6%	14.7%	13
WI	35.5%	37.8%	12.3%	14.4%	10
Total EV					142	51
Average	34.0%	36.9%	13.1%	16.0%
Wtd Avg	34.5%	36.9%	12.9%	15.7%

 

Aug.24: Jill Stein at 3% and Independents just 12% of the electorate?

Richard Charnin
Aug. 26, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

In the Aug. 24 Ipsos/Reuters poll  Clinton had 39%; Trump 36%; Johnson 7%;  Stein 3%. The sample of 1,516 Americans included 635 Democrats (41.9%), 527 Republicans (34.8%), 174 Independents (11.5%) and 180 (11.8%) who did not indicate a preference.  http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7349

The latest Gallup Party-ID survey indicates 28% Democrats, 28% Republicans and 42% Independents.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

In the July 17 Ipsos poll, Independents comprised just 14% of the sample. Stein had 1%. Clinton and Trump were tied.  https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/08/07/strange-polls-jill-stein-at-1-and-just-14-of-respondents-are-independents/

Why the large discrepancies between the Ipsos poll and Gallup Party-ID survey?

The Ipsos poll also indicated a Party_ID split of  36% Democrats and  25% Republicans – an apparent contradiction to the polling sample. Assuming the other 39%  were Independents, it is a close match to the Gallup Survey.

In the primaries, Sanders won approximately 65% of Independents and 35% of Democrats. One would logically expect that Stein would do nearly as well as Sanders against Clinton in a four-way race. They are in essential agreement on major issues – and Clinton has very low approval ratings. But Stein had an implausibly low 3% on Aug. 24 and 1% on July 17.

True Vote Model Model Base Case

This is not a forecast. It is a scenario analysis based on the following assumptions.

Party-ID:  39% Independents, 36% Democrats, 25% Republicans.
Vote shares: Stein has 40% of Independents and 35% of Democrats.  Clinton has 25% and 50%, respectively. They each have 5% of Republicans.

Base Case Result
Stein 29.45% and 231 EV,  Clinton 29.00% and 196 EV, Trump 25.15% and 111 EV. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045

Party-ID	Pct	Stein	Clinton	Trump	Johnson
Ind	39%	40%	25%	15%	20%
Dem	36%	35%	50%	5%	10%
Rep	25%	5%	5%	70%	20%
Total	100%	29.45%	29.00%	25.15%	16.40%
Votes	129,106	38,022	37,441	32,470	21,173
Elect Vote	538	231	196	111	0

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS			Stein	% Dem
Stein %	31.0%	33.0%	35.0%	37.0%	39.0%
of Ind			Stein
45%	30.0%	30.7%	31.4%	32.1%	32.8%
40%	28.0%	28.7%	29.45%	30.2%	30.9%
35%	26.1%	26.8%	27.5%	28.2%	28.9%
			Clinton
45%	28.5%	27.8%	27.1%	26.3%	25.6%
40%	30.4%	29.7%	29.00%	28.3%	27.6%
35%	32.4%	31.7%	31.0%	30.2%	29.5%
			Stein	Margin
45%	1.5%	2.9%	4.4%	5.8%	7.2%
40%	-2.4%	-1.0%	0.45%	1.9%	3.3%
35%	-6.3%	-4.9%	-3.5%	-2.0%	-0.6%
			Vote Margin (000)
45%	1,898	3,757	5,616	7,475	9,334
40%	-3,137	-1,278	581	2,440	4,299
35%	-8,172	-6,313	-4,454	-2,595	-736