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JFK: Impossible timings

JFK: Impossible timings

Richard Charnin
Jan.21, 2015

JFK Blog Posts
Look inside the book:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

I. Oswald Superman: from the 6th floor to the 2nd in 75 seconds

Oswald told Will Fritz of the Dallas PD that he was “out with Bill Shelley in front” of the TSBD. The Fritz notes were not mentioned by the Warren Commission and were hidden from the public until 1997.

If Oswald was lying to Fritz, what was his motive? After all, he already had an alibi: he was seen on the second floor 90 seconds after the shooting by TSBD manager Roy Truly and policeman Marion Baker. He was holding a coke and not out of breath. If Oswald was not on the 6th floor, why would he not be out front watching the motorcade? And how would he know Bill Shelley was out in front unless he saw him there?

Carolyn Arnold, a secretary working for the Texas School Book Depository, provided support for Lee Harvey Oswald’s alibi. She said that he was on the first floor of the TSBD at 12:25pm, five minutes before the assassination.

II. Oswald Superman: Walks 0.8 mile in two minutes to shoot Tippit

According to at least 10 eyewitnesses, J.D. Tippit was shot dead no later than 1:06pm. But the Warren Commission ignored the witnesses and claimed that Tippit was killed at 1:16. Since Oswald was seen standing outside his apartment at 1:04 (0.8 miles from the scene of the murder) he had to run 24 mph to get to the scene. The track record for a mile is 3.7 minutes (16 mph). The Warren Commission had no choice but to add ten minutes to the time of the murder to get Oswald to the scene in 12 minutes. But that was standard operating procedure for the Commission; witness testimony and evidence which proved Oswald’s innocence was ignored or altered.

This is the SMOKING GUN:
The insert shown above is taken from the actual Certificate of Death, Tippit’s name was misspelled, but the document clearly shows the time and date of death. There is no way Lee Harvey Oswald shot a “living” J.D. Tippit at either 1:15 or 1:16pm. That statement by the Warren Commission was an outright lie. A lie expressed for the sole purpose of deceiving the American public. The Warren Commission had the Tippit documents in their hands, they knew the “legal” time of death, they knew Oswald couldn’t have shot Tippit at 1:15 or 1:16pm, and yet they still chose to tell the lie.

III. Oswald Quickfinger: The Double-bang

In the article The Guns of Dealey Plaza John S. Craig lists 22 individuals who testified they heard a “double bang”: the final two of three shots occurred nearly simultaneously.

If Oswald was the only shooter there would have been at least 2.3 seconds between shots, assuming he used the telescopic sight found on the Mannlicher Carcano.

The Warren Commission’s official conclusion concerning the “Number of Shots” states that all the shots were fired from the sixth-floor window at the southeast corner of the Texas School Book Depository Building. The Commission stated that a consensus among witnesses at the scene was that three shots were fired, though some heard two shots and others heard four and as many as eight shots.

Numerous descriptions of the last two shots by so many witnesses leaves doubt as to whether Oswald was physically capable of firing both of the shots that so many characterized as being shot almost simultaneously, if not “automatically.”

It was the Commission’s belief that (a) one shot passed through the President’s neck and caused all of Governor Connally’s wounds, (b) a subsequent shot hit the President’s head, (c) no other shot struck any part of the automobile, and (d) three shots were fired with one missing, though which one missed is unknown. “Two bullets probably caused all the wounds suffered by President Kennedy and Governor Connally. Since the preponderance of the evidence indicated that three shots were fired, the Commission concluded that one shot probably missed the Presidential limousine and its occupants, and that the three shots were fired in a time period ranging from approximately 4.8 to in excess of seven seconds.”

FBI tests for the Warren Commission found that a 6.5 Mannlicher Carcano, bolt-action rifle, Model 91/38 required a minimum of 2.3 seconds to fire two shots. The HSCA made tests in which the telescopic sight was removed to see how fast the rifle could be fired without aiming. Its tests resulted in firings of 1.65, 1.75, and just over two seconds. The only way that the rifle could be fired this quickly was to simply maneuver the bolt action as fast as possible and shoot. The tests were not done with Oswald’s Mannlicher Carcano. Whether Oswald’s rifle was in a condition where it could be tested is questionable since “the pressure to open the bolt was so great that we tended to move the rifle off the target,” according to one of the Warren Commission testers”.

IV. 100,000 to 1 odds that acoustic shot timings matched Z-film

The conclusion of four separate shots then coincides with 4 impacts visible in the Z-film, and the reactions therein. The acoustic impulses were retested in a 2001 investigation (‘Echo Correlation Analysis and the Acoustic Evidence in the Kennedy Assassination Revisited’ ) by D.B. Thomas and published in the Journal Science and Justice., Vol. 41, p. 21, 2001. The impulses are shown below, with the four highest amplitude peaks associated with rifle muzzle blasts (an association I will justify subsequently):

Thomas treated both the test evidence and actual data from the original date- aware of the same misgivings that Sabato now claims. Thomas’ re- test evidence was obtained in August, 1978 when a test shot was fired in Dallas’ Dealey Plaza to provide a fiducial mark for the putative Grassy Knoll shot – such that it could be compared with the impulse record obtained on Nov. 22, 1963 and also how this mark lined up to events recorded on the Zapruder film. Thus, the test evidence (mainly in terms of echoes and echo delay times received via an echogram from a test shot (See Fig. 1) is essentially used to confirm the microphone recording & positions for the shots made on the actual date, by resort to microphones placed at the same (or approximately so) locations.

The hypergeometric p-function was used for differing weighting factor distribution sets, H{M..N, n, i} to assess significance or likelihood of occurrence. It’s based on the no. of echo ‘windows’ M, with each spanning 190msec (total time) at 2msec width per window and n for assigned impulses in the evidence pattern, with ‘i’ the “coincident impulses” or those matching the original (11/22/63)evidence and the test result. The question was whether a succession of first impulses of given amplitude could be manifesting a signal or was merely random noise. Thomas found that for a given configuration for 2 motorcycles at designated locations, 1 for (GK) shooter location and one for alignment of muzzle blasts with one pair of echoes, the p -value is 0.000012 or about 1 in 100,000 against the null hypothesis, i.e. that the impulses were from random noise. An alternative way to put this is that the odds are 100.000 to 1 in favor of the impulses comprising actual rifle shots.

V: Improbable Timing of Witness Deaths

Suspicious deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and in 1977-78 (HSCA). In 1977, seven top FBI officials due to testify at HSCA died in a 6 month period, five from heart attacks, one from an accidental gunshot and one from an accidental fall.

7706 LOUIS NICHOLS Former #3, responsible for JFK investigation; heart attack
7706 REGIS KENNEDY Confiscated films of assassination; heart attack
7708 JAMES CADIGAN Document expert; died from a fall in his home
7708 ALAN BELMONT Liaison to Warren Commission; natural causes
7710 J.M. ENGLISH Head of Forensic Sciences Laboratory; heart attack
7710 DONALD KAYLOR Fingerprint chemist;bogus Oswald “print” on rifle; heart attack
7711 WILLIAM SULLIVAN Headed Division 5 (Counter-espionage); Gunshot accident

The timing of the 7 deaths is powerful proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt, since it is focused on a specific group within a very short time interval. The HSCA did not mention any of these deaths in its claim that the London Sunday Times actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds of 18 material witness deaths in three years was invalid.

For each of the four scenarios, we calculate probabilities assuming a) 7 heart attacks, b) the official cause of deaths (5 heart attacks, 2 accidents); c) 4 homicides and 3 heart attacks; d) 7 homicides. The official cause of death may not be the actual cause; heart attacks and cancer can be induced. In order to calculate the probability of witness deaths we need the mortality rates for each cause of death.

Some WC defenders have suggested that FBI officials are more prone to heart attacks. Let’s eviscerate that canard right here by executing a sensitivity analysis to determine the overall probabilities assuming 20 FBI were sought to testify and 7 died (5 from heart attacks, 2 from accidents). We run three scenarios of FBI heart attack mortality 1) equal, 2) double and 3) triple the overall population mortality rate. The results are clear. In the worst case scenario (FBI heart attack mortality is triple the population) the probability of the 7 deaths is 1 in 100 billion.

1977 mortality rates

0.004137 Heart Attack
0.000488 Accident
0.000092 Homicide
0.003094 Official weighted rate: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents
0.001826 Speculative weighted rate: 4 homicides, 3 heart attacks

The probability of n deaths among N witnesses over T years, given mortality rate R, is P = POISSON(n, T*N*R, false)

Assume N=20 FBI were called to testify at HSCA.

Scenario I: 7 heart attacks (reference illustration)
P= 3.95E-14= POISSON(7,.5*20*.004137, false)
Probability: 1 in 25 trillion
Assume an impossible 100 FBI were called to testify.
P= 3.6E-10 or 1 in 2.7 billion.

Official Cause of Death
Scenario II: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents

P= 5.23E-15= POISSON(7,.5*20*.003094, false)
Probability: 1 in 190 trillion

Speculative Scenario III: 3 heart attacks, 4 homicides
P= 1.32E-16= POISSON(7,.5*20*.001826, false)
Probability: 1 in 7000 trillion

Speculative Scenario IV: 7 homicides
P= 1.11E-25= POISSON(7,.5*20*.000092, false)
Probability: 1 in 9 trillion trillion

All 7 heart 5 heart/ 3 heart/
FBI attacks 2 accid. 4 murders 7 murders

08. 6.63E-17 8.72E-18 2.18E-19 1.81E-28
20. 3.95E-14 5.23E-15 1.32E-16 1.11E-25
30. 6.61E-13 8.79E-14 2.23E-15 1.89E-24
100 2.61E-09 3.61E-10 9.56E-12 8.61E-21

THREE SCENARIOS: FBI heart attack mortality vs. national rate

Assume 20 FBI officials were called to testify at HSCA. Even if FBI heart attack mortality is triple the national rate, the probability of 7 deaths in 6 months is still infinitesimal: 1 in 100 billion.

Probability Sensitivity Analysis

...Rate.........Probability (assumption)
1- 0.003094 5.23E-15 1 in 190 trillion (FBI heart attack rate equal to national)
2- 0.006049 5.54E-13 1 in 1.8 trillion (FBI 2X national)
3- 0.009004 8.70E-12 1 in 100 billion (FBI 3X national)

These graphs are mathematical proof of a conspiracy.


Posted by on January 21, 2015 in JFK


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JFK: the eyewitnesses speak

JFK: the eyewitnesses speak

Richard Charnin
Sept. 10, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

Note: number of witnesses shown in parenthesis.

1. Oswald could not have shot Tippit. Tippit was killed at 1:06pm, 0.8 mile from where Oswald was seen at 1:04 (10).

2. The “double-bang” of two nearly simultaneous shots proves that there had to be more than one shooter (44).

3. The JFK Limo came to a full stop, not shown in the Zapruder film (33).

4. The clear majority of witnesses said shots came from the Grassy Knoll (90+).

5. Parkland witnesses saw an entrance wound in JFK’s throat (22).

6. Autopsy witnesses saw an exit wound in the right rear of JFK”s head (44).

7. The “Magic Bullet” struck JFK in the back 5.5” below the collar and never exited. This was confirmed by FBI agents at the autopsy (2).

8. Oswald left the TSBD at approximately 12:40 and entered a Rambler (6).

9. Billy Lovelady was on the steps of the TSBD. Doorman (Oswald) was standing on the top level (3).

10. Carolyn Arnold, a TSBD secretary, saw Oswald on the FIRST floor at 12:25pm. She was not interviewed by the Warren Commission. Oswald told Will Fritz he was out with Bill Shelley in front (the FIRST floor entrance) at 12:30. Oswald was seen by policeman Baker and TSBD manager Truly at 12:31pm holding a coke on the SECOND floor.(3), THIS IS ABSOLUTE PROOF THAT OSWALD COULD NOT HAVE BEEN ON THE 6TH FLOOR AT 12:30.


Posted by on September 10, 2014 in JFK


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JFK Calc: Questions on the Spreadsheet Analysis

JFK Calc: Questions on the Spreadsheet Analysis

Richard Charnin
April 9, 2014
Updated:June 7, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

Warren Commission apologists invariably thrash JFK-related witness death analysis – as well as the observations of Dealey Plaza and medical eyewitnesses. Rather, they ask questions that are irrelevant and meant to distract from the facts. They don’t bother to actually read the posts, comprehend the logic or deal with the evidence.

The JFK Calc spreadsheet database includes 126 witnesses who died unnaturally and suspiciously (122 from 1964-78).

This post will present the answers to questions that should legitimately be asked on the JFK witness mortality data and calculation methodology.

1) What is the data source of the witnesses?
See Jim Marrs’ “Crossfire” (103), Michael Benson’s “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination (1400)”, Richard Belzer and David Wayne’s “Hit List” (50) and the Simkin Educational website (656).

The analysis is cited in Hit List, Crossfire, Judyth Baker’s Ferrie, Phil Nelson’s LBJ:Mastermind to Colossus, physicist/astronomer/mathematician Philip Stahl and political author Andrew Kreig.

Dealey Plaza eyewitnesses and associated probabilities are based on articles by these excellent researchers: Stewart Galanor, Harold Feldman, Vince Palamara and John Craig.

2) Of the 122 total suspicious deaths in JFK Calc, how many were officially ruled unnatural?
There were 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths (34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 4 unknown). But a statistical analysis based on historical accident, suicide and heart attack mortality rates indicates at least 84 homicides and 99 unnatural deaths.

......Homicide Unnatural Total
.....Ruled Est Ruled Est Deaths
1964... 12 19... 19 23... 25
1964-66 16 35... 35 42... 48
1964-78 34 84... 78 99... 122

3) Can you prove that the witnesses were relevant?
Ninety-six (96) of the 122 are listed among the 1400+ in “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. Sixty-seven (67) testified or were sought in four investigations: Warren Commission (1964), Garrison/Shaw trial (1967-69), Church senate Intelligence (1975), HSCA (1976-78). The investigators must have considered them relevant or they would not have been sought to testify.

Simkin’s JFK site contains 656 JFK-related biographies. Sixty-four (64) are in JFK Calc. In this group, 40 deaths were officially ruled unnatural, a one in 1 trillion^3 probability. There were 22 official homicides among the 40. But there were 47 estimated true homicides.

Satisfy yourself. Do your homework. Read one of the above books. Run a google search of the names.I do not have to prove they were all relevant. The burden of proof is on the apologists to prove they were all insignificant and unrelated to the assassination.

4) What method is used to calculate the probabilities?
The steps are:
1) Determine the number of witnesses in the group,
2) specify the time period,
3) determine the number of unnatural deaths,
4) apply the applicable unnatural mortality rates for the period.
5) calculate the number of expected unnatural deaths.
6) calculate the probability using the Poisson distribution function.

5) Why do you claim that many officially ruled accidents, suicides and heart attacks were homicides?
Any analysis should consider the anomalous facts of each case (timing, etc.) which indicate homicide. We can estimate the approximate number of true homicides by calculating the statistically expected number of accidents, suicides and heart attacks. We use respective mortality rates for each cause of death. The official ruled number of accidents, suicides and heart attacks far exceeds the expected number. The difference between the official and expected numbers is a fair approximation of the number of true homicides. deatZJYllKTnc#gid=74

6) What is the Paradigm Shift?
It’s a new way of looking at the problem. There is no need to consider motive in the death of any particular witness. Motive is not a factor in the calculation of probabilities. The only factors are purely numerical: the total number of witnesses in the designated “universe”, the number who died unnaturally, the cause of death, and the time period under study. The 67 who were sought to testify were obviously relevant – and so were the other 55. But to analyze the relevance of a given witness is a moot point. We must consider the total number. The motive for any given death is a non-issue in calculating the probability.

7) Didn’t the HSCA statistician claim that calculation of the odds was impossible since the universe of witnesses was unknown?
Yes, but the HSCA was wrong. It did not consider groups of witnesses where the number was known: For example, 552 testified or gave affidavits at the Warren Commission (the CIA stated that 418 witnesses testified). Approximately 600 were sought or testified in three subsequent investigations.

8) Didn’t the HSCA statistician claim that the London Times actuary’s calculation of 100,000 trillion to one odds was invalid?
Yes, but the HSCA was wrong. The actuary’s math was confirmed assuming 454 witnesses given 13 unnatural deaths (8 homicides, 3 accidents, 2 suicides) in three years. The Times could have asked the actuary to calculate the probability of 16 officially ruled homicides from 1964-66 based on the average 0.000061 national rate: 1.3E-23 (1 in 70 billion trillion); or the probability of 34 officially ruled homicides from 1964-78 using triple the average 0.000084 national rate: 7.6E-17 (1 in 1,000 trillion).

9) Didn’t the HSCA investigate a number of suspicious witness deaths?
The HSCA noted just 21 deaths but there were at least 100 others. Unbelievably, 7 top FBI officials died (5 heart attacks, 2 accidents) within a six month period in 1977 just before they were due to testify at HSCA! Assuming 20 FBI were called to testify, the probability that seven would die is one in 200 trillion. There were a dozen other prospective HSCA witnesses who died before they could testify.

10) Aren’t you using unproven assumptions?
The data is factual, not assumed: officially ruled unnatural deaths, government mortality statistics, specific time periods. The classic Poisson distribution is used to calculate the probabilities based on factual data. It is a straightforward analysis using public information. It is not a poll.

11) Weren’t witnesses in high risk locations?
Yes, it’s true. Fifty-one (51) of 122 deaths occurred in Dallas. Was this just a coincidence?

12) How are the witnesses classified?
There were Ruby associates,reporters, FBI, CIA, anti-Castro Cubans, mafia, police and others. Most had inside information.

13) How do you know that the timing of deaths was a factor?
Just look at this graph. Notice the spikes in 1964 and 1977. Was it just a coincidence that so many deaths occurred during the Warren Commission and HSCA?

14) Has your study been peer-reviewed?
As stated above, the analysis is cited by Richard Belzer and David Wayne in Hit List and by Jim Marrs in Crossfire. Both are major JFK assassination historical references.

Philip Stahl (“Copernicus”), a prolific author, astronomer, space physicist and mathematician, has cited the JFK-witness death probability analysis in several of his blog posts:

The analysis is available to anyone who wants to review it: JFK researchers, actuaries, mathematicians, media. Now what about McAdams, Posner, Bugliosi and the mainstream media? Not a word. Perhaps because they can’t refute the logic or the math. I asked McAdams to have one of the Marquette math professors review it. No luck.

15) Do you disagree with John McAdams’ survey that a majority of Dealey Plaza witnesses said shots came from the Texas Book Depository? Yes, for the same reasons Harold Feldman and Stewart Galanor disagree in their surveys. McAdams cooked his numbers by omission and commission.

16) You claim the Zapruder film was altered. What is your evidence?
It is based on the following facts:
First, 33 of 59 witnesses said the JFK limo came to a FULL stop; 13 said NEAR stop. The probability is ZERO that they would ALL be mistaken.
Second, the Z-film does not show even a NEAR stop.
Third, the film does NOT show Secret Service agent Clint Hill covering JFK and Jackie, or giving the thumbs down sign to the following cars.
Fourth, 11 Hollywood photography experts have concluded that the film was altered.
Fifth, the chain of custody was broken.

17) What about the controversy on the location of JFK’s wounds?
Well, 43 of 44 witnesses at Parkland and the autopsy initially claimed there was a large EXIT wound in the right rear of JFK’s head. Parkland doctors said there was an entrance wound in the throat. I won’t bother calculating the probability that they were all mistaken.

18) Do you believe that Oswald fired the shots?
No. For many reasons. Here is just one: 47 Dealey Plaza witnesses heard a double-bang of two nearly instantaneous shots. The alleged Mannlicher Carcano rifle required at least 2.3 seconds between shots. Were all 47 mistaken?
The 1…2.3 pattern
The Double Bang

19) What if your estimates of the number of material witnesses, unnatural deaths and homicides are incorrect? Wouldn’t this invalidate the results?
Not at all. No one can say what the exact numbers are. But they are surely greater than the officially ruled numbers.

The uncertainty is handled by a probability sensitivity analysis. It consists of two tables: a range of witness group size estimates vs ranges of unnatural deaths and homicides. The homicide table ranges from 1400-10000 witnesses and 34 (ruled) to 90 (expected) homicides. All plausible scenario combinations give ZERO probabilities – absolute proof of a conspiracy.

The Dallas 1964-78 homicide rate was triple the national and used in the following calculations.
– 34 officially ruled homicides and a plausible 1400 witness universe:
P= 7.6E-17 or 1 in 13,000 trillion.
– 84 expected homicides and an inflated 5000 witness universe:
P= 4.0E-28 or 1 in 2000 trillion trillion.

20) What about the unnatural deaths of Dealey Plaza witnesses?
There are 20 in JFK Calc. A sensitivity analysis assuming 200-600 witnesses and 8-15 homicides is another strong indicator of a conspiracy. Assuming 400 Dealey Plaza witnesses and given the
– 0.000084 average national homicide rate, the probabilities range from 1 in 15 million (8 homicides) to 1 in 60,000 trillion (15 homicides).
– 0.000253 average Dallas homicide rate, the probabilities range from 1 in 5000 (8 homicides) to 1 in 11 billion (15 homicides).

21) What do you conclude based on the JFK Calc analysis?
The answer should be obvious to anyone who has read and understood the analysis: A conspiracy has been mathematically proven beyond ANY doubt.


Posted by on April 9, 2014 in JFK


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