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2017 Alabama Senate: Jefferson County- Implausible voter turnout

Alabama Senate: Jefferson County- Implausible voter turnout

Richard Charnin
Jan. 12, 2018

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS

Problem: Estimate a) Clinton and Trump voter turnout in 2017 and b) Trump voter defection required to match the recorded vote.

In 2016, Clinton won Jefferson by 32,000 votes (52.3-45.0%).
In 2017, Jones won Jefferson by 83,000 votes (68.1-30.2%).

In order to match the vote, Jones needed
1) 25% higher 2016 Clinton voter turnout than Trump (85-60%).
2) 21% of returning Trump voters (8% would normally be expected to defect).
3) 98% of Clinton voters.

True Vote Estimate: Assume 80% turnout of Clinton voters and 66% of Trump  voters. Moore wins 84% of Trump voters and 3% of Clinton.   Jones’ margin in Jefferson is reduced from 83,000 to 56,000 votes.

Go to row 133
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YoXVkz6KGUoMzEDJBxwROEaukSkgqWVHX3qy_lBxIgc/edit#gid=0

Recorded Vote-Turnout Assumption: 85% Clinton; 60% Trump;60% Other

JEFFERSON COUNTY
2017
2016 Recorded Votes 99% Alive Turnout Turnout
Clinton 52.32% 156,873 155,304 85% 132,009
Trump 44.95% 134,768 133,420 60% 80,052
Other 2.73% 8,199 8,117 60% 4,870
Did Not Vote 2,610
TOTAL 100% 299,840 296,842 219,541
2017 Pct Jones Moore Other
Clinton 60.1% 98.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Trump 36.5% 21.0% 76.0% 3.0%
Other 2.2% 37.0% 40.0% 23.0%
DNV (new) 1.2% 59.0% 34.0% 7.0%
Match 100% 68.11% 30.21% 1.69%
Votes 219,541 149,521 66,315 3,704
Recorded 100% 68.11% 30.20% 1.69%
  219,541 149,522 66,309 3,710

True Vote estimate- Turnout Assumption: 80% Clinton; 66% Trump; 66% Other
2017 Pct Jones Moore Other
Clinton 56.6% 97.0% 2.0% 1.0%
Trump 40.1% 14.0% 84.0% 2.0%
Other 2.4% 37.0% 45.0% 18.0%
DNV (new) 0.9% 59.0% 34.0% 7.0%
True Estimate 100% 61.92% 36.21% 1.87%
Votes 219,541 135,937 79,504 4,100
Recorded 100% 68.11% 30.20% 1.69%
219,541 149,522 66,309 3,710

 

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Posted by on January 12, 2018 in 2016 election

 

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2017 Alabama True Vote: 75% turnout of Clinton voters but only 45% of Trump voters?

Richard Charnin
Dec.14, 2017

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS

2017 Alabama Senate True Vote Model

In 2016, Trump won the state by 589,000 votes: 62.08-34.36%.
There were 2,123,372 total recorded votes.

In the Senate election, Jones won by 20,715 votes: 49.9-48.4% .
There were 1,344,438 total recorded votes.

Returning 2016 Voter Turnout 

Did 75% of Clinton and 45% of Trump voters return in 2017?
That’s what was required to match the recorded vote.

Clinton Trump margin Winner
75%.. 45%.. -20,715 Recorded Jones
70%.. 50%.. 70,577  Moore  (Base Case scenario)
65%.. 55%.. 161,011 Moore
60%.. 60%.. 251,446 Moore

True Vote Model: Use identical exit poll recorded vote shares of returning and new voters, but adjust 2016 voter turnout to 70% Clinton and 50% Trump.

Sensitivity Analysis
Base case scenario: Moore has 4% of Clinton and 92% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 51.8-46.5% (71,000 votes)

Worst case scenario: Moore has 2% of Clinton and 90% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 50.1-48.3% (24,000 votes)

Best case scenario: Moore has 6% of Clinton and 94% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 53.5-44.8% (117,000 votes)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YoXVkz6KGUoMzEDJBxwROEaukSkgqWVHX3qy_lBxIgc/edit#gid=1736734781

https://www.scribd.com/document/367999441/Moore-Voter-Fraud-Complaint

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.8906eed4d60f

Recorded vote match: Returning voter turnout: Clinton 75%; Trump 45% 

2016  2017 Returning  Vote
Actual Turnout Voters Pct Jones Moore Other
Clinton 75% 541,761 40.3% 96% 4% 0%
Trump 45% 587,210 43.7% 7% 92% 1%
Other 60% 44,927 3.3% 47% 24% 29%
DNV (new) 170,539 12.7% 52% 46% 2%
 Recorded 1,344,438  100% 49.9% 48.4% 1.7%
 Votes   671,151 650,436 22,811
     

2016 Returning voter turnout: Clinton 70%; Trump 50% 

True Vote (est.)  2017 Returning    
2016 Turnout Voters  Pct Jones Moore Other
Clinton 70% 505,644 37.6% 96% 4% 0%
Trump 50% 652,456 48.5% 7% 92% 1%
Other 60% 44,927 3.3% 47% 24% 29%
DNV(new) 141,411 10.5% 52% 46% 2%
 Total 63.32% 1,344,438  True Vote 46.5% 51.8% 1.7%
 Votes 1,344,438 625,740 696,317 22,382
True Vote 
 Sensitivity Analysis
Moore% Clinton
Moore 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
% Trump Moore
94% 52.0% 52.4% 52.8% 53.1% 53.5%
93% 51.5% 51.9% 52.3% 52.7% 53.0%
92% 51.0% 51.4% 51.8% 52.2% 52.5%
91% 50.6% 50.9% 51.3% 51.7% 52.1%
90% 50.1% 50.4% 50.8% 51.2% 51.6%
Jones
94% 46.3% 45.9% 45.6% 45.2% 44.8%
93% 46.8% 46.4% 46.1% 45.7% 45.3%
92% 47.3% 46.9% 46.5% 46.2% 45.8%
91% 47.8% 47.4% 47.0% 46.7% 46.3%
90% 48.3% 47.9% 47.5% 47.1% 46.8%
Moore  margin
94% 5.7% 6.4% 7.2% 7.9% 8.7%
93% 4.7% 5.5% 6.2% 7.0% 7.7%
92% 3.7% 4.5% 5.2% 6.0% 6.8%
91% 2.8% 3.5% 4.3% 5.0% 5.8%
90% 1.8% 2.6% 3.3% 4.1% 4.8%
Moore margin (000)
94% 76 87 97 107 117
93% 63 74 84 94 104
92% 50 60 71 81 91
91% 37 47 58 68 78
90% 24 34 44 55 65

 

 
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Posted by on December 14, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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