2017 Alabama Senate: Jefferson County- Implausible voter turnout

Alabama Senate: Jefferson County- Implausible voter turnout

Richard Charnin
Jan. 12, 2018

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS

Problem: Estimate a) Clinton and Trump voter turnout in 2017 and b) Trump voter defection required to match the recorded vote.

In 2016, Clinton won Jefferson by 32,000 votes (52.3-45.0%).
In 2017, Jones won Jefferson by 83,000 votes (68.1-30.2%).

In order to match the vote, Jones needed
1) 25% higher 2016 Clinton voter turnout than Trump (85-60%).
2) 21% of returning Trump voters (8% would normally be expected to defect).
3) 98% of Clinton voters.

True Vote Estimate: Assume 80% turnout of Clinton voters and 66% of Trump  voters. Moore wins 84% of Trump voters and 3% of Clinton.   Jones’ margin in Jefferson is reduced from 83,000 to 56,000 votes.

Go to row 133
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YoXVkz6KGUoMzEDJBxwROEaukSkgqWVHX3qy_lBxIgc/edit#gid=0

Recorded Vote-Turnout Assumption: 85% Clinton; 60% Trump;60% Other

JEFFERSON COUNTY			2017
2016	Recorded	Votes	99% Alive	Turnout	Turnout
Clinton	52.32%	156,873	155,304	85%	132,009
Trump	44.95%	134,768	133,420	60%	80,052
Other	2.73%	8,199	8,117	60%	4,870
Did Not Vote	–	–	–	–	2,610
TOTAL	100%	299,840	296,842	219,541

2017	Pct	Jones	Moore	Other
Clinton	60.1%	98.0%	2.0%	0.0%
Trump	36.5%	21.0%	76.0%	3.0%
Other	2.2%	37.0%	40.0%	23.0%
DNV (new)	1.2%	59.0%	34.0%	7.0%
Match	100%	68.11%	30.21%	1.69%
Votes	219,541	149,521	66,315	3,704
Recorded	100%	68.11%	30.20%	1.69%
	219,541	149,522	66,309	3,710

True Vote estimate- Turnout Assumption: 80% Clinton; 66% Trump; 66% Other

2017	Pct	Jones	Moore	Other
Clinton	56.6%	97.0%	2.0%	1.0%
Trump	40.1%	14.0%	84.0%	2.0%
Other	2.4%	37.0%	45.0%	18.0%
DNV (new)	0.9%	59.0%	34.0%	7.0%
True Estimate	100%	61.92%	36.21%	1.87%
Votes	219,541	135,937	79,504	4,100
Recorded	100%	68.11%	30.20%	1.69%
	219,541	149,522	66,309	3,710

 

 

2017 Alabama True Vote: 75% turnout of Clinton voters but only 45% of Trump voters?

Richard Charnin
Dec.14, 2017

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS

2017 Alabama Senate True Vote Model

Did 75% of Clinton and 45% of Trump voters return in 2017?
That’s what was required to match the recorded vote.

In 2016, Trump won the state by 589,000 votes: 62.08-34.36%.
There were 2,123,372 total recorded votes.

In the Senate election, Jones won by 20,715 votes: 49.9-48.4% .
There were 1,344,438 total recorded votes.

Returning 2016 Voter Turnout 

Clinton Trump margin Winner
75%.. 45%.. -20,715 Recorded Jones
70%.. 50%.. 70,577  Moore  (Base Case scenario)
65%.. 55%.. 161,011 Moore
60%.. 60%.. 251,446 Moore

True Vote Model: Use identical exit poll recorded vote shares of returning and new voters, but adjust 2016 voter turnout to 70% Clinton and 50% Trump.

Sensitivity Analysis
Base case scenario: Moore has 4% of Clinton and 92% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 51.8-46.5% (71,000 votes)

Worst case scenario: Moore has 2% of Clinton and 90% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 50.1-48.3% (24,000 votes)

Best case scenario: Moore has 6% of Clinton and 94% of Trump voters.
Moore wins by 53.5-44.8% (117,000 votes)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YoXVkz6KGUoMzEDJBxwROEaukSkgqWVHX3qy_lBxIgc/edit#gid=1736734781

https://www.scribd.com/document/367999441/Moore-Voter-Fraud-Complaint

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.8906eed4d60f

Recorded vote match: Returning voter turnout: Clinton 75%; Trump 45% 

2016	2017	Returning		Vote
Actual	Turnout	Voters	Pct	Jones	Moore	Other
Clinton	75%	541,761	40.3%	96%	4%	0%
Trump	45%	587,210	43.7%	7%	92%	1%
Other	60%	44,927	3.3%	47%	24%	29%
DNV (new)	–	170,539	12.7%	52%	46%	2%
Recorded		1,344,438	100%	49.9%	48.4%	1.7%
Votes				671,151	650,436	22,811

2016 Returning voter turnout: Clinton 70%; Trump 50% 

True Vote (est.)	2017	Returning
2016	Turnout	Voters	Pct	Jones	Moore	Other
Clinton	70%	505,644	37.6%	96%	4%	0%
Trump	50%	652,456	48.5%	7%	92%	1%
Other	60%	44,927	3.3%	47%	24%	29%
DNV(new)	–	141,411	10.5%	52%	46%	2%
Total	63.32%	1,344,438	True Vote	46.5%	51.8%	1.7%
Votes			1,344,438	625,740	696,317	22,382

		True Vote	Sensitivity Analysis
			Moore% Clinton
Moore	2%	3%	4%	5%	6%
% Trump			Moore
94%	52.0%	52.4%	52.8%	53.1%	53.5%
93%	51.5%	51.9%	52.3%	52.7%	53.0%
92%	51.0%	51.4%	51.8%	52.2%	52.5%
91%	50.6%	50.9%	51.3%	51.7%	52.1%
90%	50.1%	50.4%	50.8%	51.2%	51.6%
			Jones
94%	46.3%	45.9%	45.6%	45.2%	44.8%
93%	46.8%	46.4%	46.1%	45.7%	45.3%
92%	47.3%	46.9%	46.5%	46.2%	45.8%
91%	47.8%	47.4%	47.0%	46.7%	46.3%
90%	48.3%	47.9%	47.5%	47.1%	46.8%
			Moore  margin
94%	5.7%	6.4%	7.2%	7.9%	8.7%
93%	4.7%	5.5%	6.2%	7.0%	7.7%
92%	3.7%	4.5%	5.2%	6.0%	6.8%
91%	2.8%	3.5%	4.3%	5.0%	5.8%
90%	1.8%	2.6%	3.3%	4.1%	4.8%

			Moore margin (000)
94%	76	87	97	107	117
93%	63	74	84	94	104
92%	50	60	71	81	91
91%	37	47	58	68	78
90%	24	34	44	55	65