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2016 ELECTION MODEL -10/30 UPDATE – TRUMP SURGING

Richard Charnin
Oct. 30, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

The 2016 Election Model uses eight recent polls adjusted for party-ID weights and undecided voters.

Clinton leads the 8-poll average 45.4-42.5% with 309 EV. But when the over-weighted Democratic party-ID split is replaced by the Gallup party affiliation  survey and 75% of undecided voters are allocated to Trump, he leads by 48.2-44.1%  with a 336-202 EV lead..

The model indicates that Trump has a 92% popular vote win probability.

Note: Undecided voters typically break 75% for the challenger. Trump is the assumed challenger and HRC/Obama is the incumbent.

8-Poll…………………………….. Electoral Vote….. Trump Popular Vote
Average….. Clinton Trump….. Clinton.. Trump…Win Prob (3% MoE).
Poll………… 45.4%… 42.5%……. 309…… 229……..14%
Adjusted….. 42.8%… 44.2%…… 225……. 313……..70%
Undec……… 44.1%… 48.2%…….202…… 336……..92%

% Ind ……… 32.5%… 45.1%

Party ID.. Ind…. Dem…. Rep
Avg Poll.. 27.5% 39.0% 31.9%
Gallup…. 40.0% 32.0% 28.0% (adjusted)

ABC/Washington Post

 ABC/WP Party-ID Stein  Clinton  Trump  Johnson
Ind 29% 1% 38% 58% 3%
Dem 37% 1% 94% 5% 0%
Rep 29% 0% 4% 91% 2%
Total 95% 0.7% 47.0% 45.1% 1.5%
Poll 97% 2.0% 46.0% 45.0% 4.0%
Gallup Adj. 99.2% 0.7% 46.4% 50.3% 1.8%
Gallup Adj.  Party-ID Stein Clinton Trump Johnson
Ind 40% 1% 38% 58% 3%
Dem 32% 1% 94% 5% 0%
Rep 28% 0% 4% 91% 2%
Total 99.2% 0.7% 46.4% 50.3% 1.8%
Votes 128,021 930 59,905 64,914 2,272
EVote 538 0 187 351 0

Sensitivity Analysis: Adjusted Gallup-ID

Trump % Rep
Trump 87.0% 89.0% 91.0% 93.0% 95.0%
% Ind Trump
62% 50.8% 51.3% 51.9% 52.4% 53.0%
58% 49.2% 49.7% 50.3% 50.8% 51.4%
54% 47.6% 48.1% 48.7% 49.2% 49.8%
Clinton
62% 45.9% 45.4% 44.8% 44.2% 43.7%
58% 47.5% 47.0% 46.4% 45.8% 45.3%
54% 49.1% 48.6% 48.0% 47.4% 46.9%
Margin
62% 4.8% 6.0% 7.1% 8.2% 9.3%
58% 1.6% 2.8% 3.9% 5.0% 6.1%
54% -1.6% -0.4% 0.7% 1.8% 2.9%
Vote Margin (000)
62% 6,196 7,630 9,064 10,498 11,932
58% 2,100 3,533 4,967 6,401 7,835
54% -1,997 -563 871 2,304 3,738

 

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Posted by on October 30, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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